MBB: Duke v Pitt (Tue 12/29, 8:00 pm) - POSTPONED DUE TO PITT COVID TEST

[IrishDevil]

It's hard to argue against safety and I'm all for it. Just curious though, is there any real data ( not conjecture or opinion) that college sports has added to the recent COVID surge. Is there any data that if ( or when) the college basketball season is cancelled, sending these student athletes back into the general student population will keep them safer ? We do have data indicating numbers and rates of COVID in the general student population ( during the semester the Chronicle publishes the data every Monday). My sense is that at many schools, especially Duke, the athletes are better protected and monitored while they are participating in sports. Cancelling sports is not a guarantee of health.
While cancelling the season may well occur, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there are also other downstream consequences, even the crass one such as loss revenue for not only the NCAA, various corporate entities, but unfortunately for regular folks as well.

Fair question. I think one response is that your bolded statement may be only half true, particularly with respect to Duke. I don't have any inside info on how Duke tests its athletes, but Duke has handled COVID in the general population on campus in an exemplary fashion and rigorously tests, traces, and isolates cases. The difficulty with sports like basketball is that they bring Duke students and students from other schools into close contact for extended periods of time in an indoor space while engaged in a vigorous activity requiring shouting, talking, and heavy breathing. As has come to light regarding the women's team's decision to halt play, not all schools are so rigorous in their safety protocols as Duke, even with respect to their athletes. As you point out, cancellation is not a guarantee of health, but one could reasonably argue that Duke athletes are at greater risk than the rest of the Duke population while actively competing due to their exposure to students from other schools with more active cases, less rigorous safety protocols, or potentially both. Whether this proposition applies with equal force to other schools depends on where the school falls on the case rate/safety rigor spectrum, both in athletics specifically and in the campus population in general.

[rsvman]

It's hard to argue against safety and I'm all for it. Just curious though, is there any real data ( not conjecture or opinion) that college sports has added to the recent COVID surge. Is there any data that if ( or when) the college basketball season is cancelled, sending these student athletes back into the general student population will keep them safer ? ...

Of course not, are you being serious?

This is not directed at you personally, but I just have to vent here. I am getting so tired of people asking unanswerable questions and being upset when they are told that we don't have an answer. How could we answer an unanswerable question?

How could there be data when we have never before had a college basketball season during a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic? And by "we" I mean people who live on this particular planet.

People keep asking me "How long will protection engendered by the vaccine last?" Well, how in the world could we know that? Time has to pass in order for us to find out. I don't have any way of making time pass more quickly, and I don't have a time machine, so I guess the question is literally unanswerable. So please don't be angry when I tell you that I don't know the answer. /rant


OK, now back to the topic at hand. When we do not have data, we have to think a problem through then make a decision based on the information that is available to us. We don't have the option of reviewing "data," because it doesn't exist. Would you prefer that we not think it through and try to make the most rational decision we can based on that thought process and our pre-existing knowledge of viruses, communicability, and epidemiology?

I don't know the answer to your excellent question about whether it would be safer to have them stop playing, and I don't have all the information I would need in order to figure out the best answer. But for sure the question needs to be addressed, and for sure the answer is NOT going to come from data.



If the tone was too harsh, I apologize. I feel like I am unloading a ton of frustration that has been building up inside me for the past few weeks if not longer. This is certainly not all directed at weksray.

I also find it confusing that when it comes to protective measures like the vaccine or cancelling a sports season, everybody wants data. But when it comes to treatments or interventions, everybody is angry that we don't just go ahead and get started now; why are we awaiting data? Can't have it both ways.

[hustleplays]

From my last post: Our cereal frontal cortices don't get fully wired... Sigh. I guess that explains a lot. Not being able to eat our Wheaties until our 20's certainly diminishes our capacity for sound reasoning. Cheerio!

[weksray]

Of course not, are you being serious?

This is not directed at you personally, but I just have to vent here. I am getting so tired of people asking unanswerable questions and being upset when they are told that we don't have an answer. How could we answer an unanswerable question?

How could there be data when we have never before had a college basketball season during a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic? And by "we" I mean people who live on this particular planet.

People keep asking me "How long will protection engendered by the vaccine last?" Well, how in the world could we know that? Time has to pass in order for us to find out. I don't have any way of making time pass more quickly, and I don't have a time machine, so I guess the question is literally unanswerable. So please don't be angry when I tell you that I don't know the answer. /rant


OK, now back to the topic at hand. When we do not have data, we have to think a problem through then make a decision based on the information that is available to us. We don't have the option of reviewing "data," because it doesn't exist. Would you prefer that we not think it through and try to make the most rational decision we can based on that thought process and our pre-existing knowledge of viruses, communicability, and epidemiology?

I don't know the answer to your excellent question about whether it would be safer to have them stop playing, and I don't have all the information I would need in order to figure out the best answer. But for sure the question needs to be addressed, and for sure the answer is NOT going to come from data.



If the tone was too harsh, I apologize. I feel like I am unloading a ton of frustration that has been building up inside me for the past few weeks if not longer. This is certainly not all directed at weksray.

I also find it confusing that when it comes to protective measures like the vaccine or cancelling a sports season, everybody wants data. But when it comes to treatments or interventions, everybody is angry that we don't just go ahead and get started now; why are we awaiting data? Can't have it both ways.

So, sorry you've been keeping your frustrations pent up and its OK, go ahead and vent.I'm not taking it personally.
But, we sort of do have data. We get daily data from each state ( I'm thinking). Case rate, hospitalizations, ( acute and ICU). deaths, nursing home cases, positivity rates etc etc. We also het data from the schools themselves. We know for instance student and faculty test data at Duke. We can compare rates on college campuses to the general population ( well I'm sure the smarter statisticians on this board can). To you're point, what we don't have, of course, is long term data. Hey but if there is science out there let's use it.
As to vaccines and treatments, to be clear, we have data here as well... clinical trials and further review by FDA and CDC. The problem again of course is long term data, no getting around that.
My venting... If we want to cancel the season let's discuss it over the real reasons, I'm just not completely sure its the safety reason and if it is maybe the discussion reverts back to better and more comprehensive guidance by let's say the NCAA so as to ensure consistency of policy and process across all conferences

[IrishDevil]

My venting... If we want to cancel the season let's discuss it over the real reasons, I'm just not completely sure its the safety reason and if it is maybe the discussion reverts back to better and more comprehensive guidance by let's say the NCAA so as to ensure consistency of policy and process across all conferences

Not sure what you mean here. Are you saying that talk of canceling the season is not actually about the safety of the students and staff involved in sports, despite its singular prominence in the discussion? What are the "real reasons" to which you refer and why are they hidden by this apparently disingenuous talk of safety?

I will also say I am a mite skeptical about relying on the NCAA to provide "consistency of policy and process." Maybe they can rise to the occasion in this instance, but their track record is not exactly in their favor.

[JasonEvans]

If we want to cancel the season let's discuss it over the real reasons, I'm just not completely sure its the safety reason

Hang on... what other reason do you think there could be for canceling the season?

maybe the discussion reverts back to better and more comprehensive guidance by let's say the NCAA so as to ensure consistency of policy and process across all conferences

Coach K an many other smart voices in the sport have been adamant about wanting more leadership from the NCAA. The fact that different conferences have different rules for testing and tracing and quarantine pretty much ensures this will be a complete !#^!*-show. The various college sports (especially the revenue sports) have needed a Czar or something like that for a long time... Covid has amplified that need approximately 10,000%!!

[UrinalCake]

But, we sort of do have data. We get daily data from each state ( I'm thinking)... What we don't have, of course, is long term data.

We have data, but we don't have controlled experiments with independent sample sets. So we could say that the infection rate of the general Duke population is X and the infection rate of the basketball team is Y, but those are obviously not numbers that you can directly compare. They live in completely different worlds, and physiologically speaking a basketball player is on another dimension compared to an average 18 year old. But if the basketball team was to opt out of the season, I don't think they would go back into the general student population and become "regular" students hiking up the steps to Gross Chem and meeting at the Hideaway with their UWC advisor. More likely they would continue to live in the WaDu, isolating and practicing as a team. That clearly puts them at less of a risk of catching covid than if they were playing games.

When I hear college coaches (mostly football) saying things like "the kids are safer practicing on campus than they would be back at home" it honestly makes me cringe a little. There is some thinly veiled racism inherent in that statement, suggesting that the players come from poor living conditions where safety measures cannot be afforded. And it mostly just sounds like an excuse that coaches make to justify having their sports take place at a time that they shouldn't. I'm not intending to put this on you, just offering some related thoughts towards the discussion.

[weksray]

Not sure what you mean here. Are you saying that talk of canceling the season is not actually about the safety of the students and staff involved in sports, despite its singular prominence in the discussion? What are the "real reasons" to which you refer and why are they hidden by this apparently disingenuous talk of safety?

I will also say I am a mite skeptical about relying on the NCAA to provide "consistency of policy and process." Maybe they can rise to the occasion in this instance, but their track record is not exactly in their favor.

Ah ha ! That's the point. I'm not sure there is another reason, and if not perhaps, the data ( sorry rsvman) doesn't support cancelling the season. Perhaps the reason is optics. It doesn't look/smell/feel right that sport is being played while so many suffer ( though maybe an argument can be made that the sport allows for stress reduction. we read how so many are suffering depression, stress, etc). Perhaps it is a safety issue but for those at risk, not the students, but coaches , referees, other ancillary support and can we find a way to address that concern, but continue the game.

My hope was to initiate a reasonable dialogue to try and understand why there is this renewed rush to terminate the season, perhaps selfishly because I will miss it so.

And yes Jason, Coach K has been advocating for years to install a Czar, unfortunately there is not one in place right now

[budwom]

^yessir, all the talk by coaches about how safe the kids are seems pretty hollow when they have to travel at least once per week, spending time in hotels, airports, planes, restaurants, etc.

[rsvman]

So, sorry you've been keeping your frustrations pent up and its OK, go ahead and vent.I'm not taking it personally.
But, we sort of do have data. We get daily data from each state ( I'm thinking). Case rate, hospitalizations, ( acute and ICU). deaths, nursing home cases, positivity rates etc etc. We also het data from the schools themselves. We know for instance student and faculty test data at Duke. We can compare rates on college campuses to the general population ( well I'm sure the smarter statisticians on this board can). To you're point, what we don't have, of course, is long term data. Hey but if there is science out there let's use it.
As to vaccines and treatments, to be clear, we have data here as well... clinical trials and further review by FDA and CDC. The problem again of course is long term data, no getting around that.
My venting... If we want to cancel the season let's discuss it over the real reasons, I'm just not completely sure its the safety reason and if it is maybe the discussion reverts back to better and more comprehensive guidance by let's say the NCAA so as to ensure consistency of policy and process across all conferences

What I am saying is that we don't have data on what happens when you cancel a season versus what happens when you continue to play.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So, sorry you've been keeping your frustrations pent up and its OK, go ahead and vent.I'm not taking it personally.
But, we sort of do have data. We get daily data from each state ( I'm thinking). Case rate, hospitalizations, ( acute and ICU). deaths, nursing home cases, positivity rates etc etc. We also het data from the schools themselves. We know for instance student and faculty test data at Duke. We can compare rates on college campuses to the general population ( well I'm sure the smarter statisticians on this board can). To you're point, what we don't have, of course, is long term data. Hey but if there is science out there let's use it.
As to vaccines and treatments, to be clear, we have data here as well... clinical trials and further review by FDA and CDC. The problem again of course is long term data, no getting around that.
My venting... If we want to cancel the season let's discuss it over the real reasons, I'm just not completely sure its the safety reason and if it is maybe the discussion reverts back to better and more comprehensive guidance by let's say the NCAA so as to ensure consistency of policy and process across all conferences

Are you saying it's lack of top down leadership for a cohesive plan, as opposed to strictly safety reasons? That's the most generous interpretation I can come up with.

This is a health and safety issue. That's it. Is it exacerbated by a lack of consistent leadership and messaging? Yes. But the Duke Women's Basketball Team didn't cancel the season to make a statement to the NCAA. At least, that's far from my understanding.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Ah ha ! That's the point. I'm not sure there is another reason, and if not perhaps, the data ( sorry rsvman) doesn't support cancelling the season. Perhaps the reason is optics. It doesn't look/smell/feel right that sport is being played while so many suffer ( though maybe an argument can be made that the sport allows for stress reduction. we read how so many are suffering depression, stress, etc). Perhaps it is a safety issue but for those at risk, not the students, but coaches , referees, other ancillary support and can we find a way to address that concern, but continue the game.

My hope was to initiate a reasonable dialogue to try and understand why there is this renewed rush to terminate the season, perhaps selfishly because I will miss it so.

And yes Jason, Coach K has been advocating for years to install a Czar, unfortunately there is not one in place right now

Wow. I can't imagine that Duke would make such a dramatic move for PR points. If you have any evidence of that, I'm willing to entertain it. But short of that, I'm taking the team, program, and administration at their own words.

[weksray]

Are you saying it's lack of top down leadership for a cohesive plan, as opposed to strictly safety reasons? That's the most generous interpretation I can come up with.

This is a health and safety issue. That's it. Is it exacerbated by a lack of consistent leadership and messaging? Yes. But the Duke Women's Basketball Team didn't cancel the season to make a statement to the NCAA. At least, that's far from my understanding.

No that's not it. What is the health and safety issue ( please don't roll your eyes). Of course the students are at risk. They're at risk whether they play or not ( or perhaps you have some other info to share).
Indeed the students, the Women's team, may have felt they are at more risk and thus uncomfortable, unwilling to play. So be it, anyone has the option to opt out.
You can attend classes on campus or you can go online. You can send your child to two day a week school or have virtual schooling.

How does cancelling the season protect these kids. I'm curious as to what you say

[weksray]

Wow. I can't imagine that Duke would make such a dramatic move for PR points. If you have any evidence of that, I'm willing to entertain it. But short of that, I'm taking the team, program, and administration at their own words.

Not saying PR, but optics. Perhaps a fine but a distinct difference.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

No that's not it. What is the health and safety issue ( please don't roll your eyes). Of course the students are at risk. They're at risk whether they play or not ( or perhaps you have some other info to share).
Indeed the students, the Women's team, may have felt they are at more risk and thus uncomfortable, unwilling to play. So be it, anyone has the option to opt out.
You can attend classes on campus or you can go online. You can send your child to two day a week school or have virtual schooling.

How does cancelling the season protect these kids. I'm curious as to what you say

In addition to the playing of games, the travel, gas stations, restaurants, interaction with coaches, trainers, doctors, tutors, etc all carry inherent risks. Doing these things isn't as safe as, well, not doing them.

By every metric, the virus is surging right now. Any level of unnecessary exposure is a gamble.

That's pretty straight forward to me.

We love Duke basketball - that's why we are here. But we can't pretend our players are "essential workers" by any stretch. It's entertainment for us.

Let them stay safe. There's nothing of substance lost if we wait to play games until we have things under control.

[MChambers]

No that's not it. What is the health and safety issue ( please don't roll your eyes). Of course the students are at risk. They're at risk whether they play or not ( or perhaps you have some other info to share).
Indeed the students, the Women's team, may have felt they are at more risk and thus uncomfortable, unwilling to play. So be it, anyone has the option to opt out.
You can attend classes on campus or you can go online. You can send your child to two day a week school or have virtual schooling.

How does cancelling the season protect these kids. I'm curious as to what you say

What other reason could there be? Please tell us.

[weksray]

In addition to the playing of games, the travel, gas stations, restaurants, interaction with coaches, trainers, doctors, tutors, etc all carry inherent risks. Doing these things isn't as safe as, well, not doing them.

By every metric, the virus is surging right now. Any level of unnecessary exposure is a gamble.

That's pretty straight forward to me.

We love Duke basketball - that's why we are here. But we can't pretend our players are "essential workers" by any stretch. It's entertainment for us.

Let them stay safe. There's nothing of substance lost if we wait to play games until we have things under control.

So you're saying they will be quarantined. No interaction with other students, teachers, supermarket personnel,gas stations, doctors, restaurants, tutors, pick up games, meals on campus etc. At least where they are is somewhat controlled and monitored. Of course we do realize there have been positive cases on campus.
Yes there is a surge,but again better in an environment that is'protected' then out in the general population where the surge exists
And I never said our players were essential workers, let's not conflate the discussion.
I want not only the players, but all us of to stay healthy ( we can do better than safe).

Yes we can wait to play games, but I think we can also reasonably play games now.

[weksray]

What other reason could there be? Please tell us.

I see you agree. I'm wondering as well. Perhaps someone else knows.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So you're saying they will be quarantined. No interaction with other students, teachers, supermarket personnel,gas stations, doctors, restaurants, tutors, pick up games, meals on campus etc. At least where they are is somewhat controlled and monitored. Of course we do realize there have been positive cases on campus.
Yes there is a surge,but again better in an environment that is'protected' then out in the general population where the surge exists
And I never said our players were essential workers, let's not conflate the discussion.
I want not only the players, but all us of to stay healthy ( we can do better than safe).

Yes we can wait to play games, but I think we can also reasonably play games now.

I'm saying they will have the capacity to make their own health and safety decisions. Who to visit and when, where to go, how to expose themselves or not. It won't be dictated to them by people who want to watch them dribble a basketball.

And yes, if you are saying that any potential risk is worth them making so that we can be entertained, you are calling them essential.

I don't know how to have this conversation with you anymore without taking things beyond the scope of this board. I'm sorry you don't see that any additional exposure during a surging event that has killed 300k Americans in nine months is not necessarily a good bargain for us to make.

[weksray]

I'm saying they will have the capacity to make their own health and safety decisions. Who to visit and when, where to go, how to expose themselves or not. It won't be dictated to them by people who want to watch them dribble a basketball.

And yes, if you are saying that any potential risk is worth them making so that we can be entertained, you are calling them essential.

I don't know how to have this conversation with you anymore without taking things beyond the scope of this board. I'm sorry you don't see that any additional exposure during a surging event that has killed 300k Americans in nine months is not necessarily a good bargain for us to make.

It does appear, though not my intent, that the scope has morphed a bit.
I will just point out that by your first sentence it seems the problem you have with the current college situation is that of free will. Who decides what and when. So maybe an off topic conversation.
Secondly, we all face potential risk and thus by your own definition we are all essential.
Thirdly, please don't ( and I hope you aren't ) insinuate by your last sentence I'm insensitive to what the current situation is .How disingenuous to sneak that into a rational conversation.

Finally, I will look forward to enjoying our team and will revel in their success, be saddened by their failures. I hope ( apparently construed as selfishly by some) that will be this year, if not then next year) and that health will be enjoyed by all