Dukies in the NBA 2020-21

[flyingdutchdevil]

Your math is a little off, as the Bulls didn't play a full season last year and Carter had some games off that were unrelated to injuries.

But "minor" is probably the wrong word. "Not long-term significant" is what I meant by minor. But absolutely fluky. His injuries are as follows:

2019: Sprained thumb (non-shooting hand), cost him 35 games
2020: Sprained ankle, cost him 22 games
2021: deep thigh bruise, has cost him 10 games (might be back this weekend)

Winslow's injuries are also fluky, but they are a bit more concerning. A hip injury and back problems are more concerning long-term.

Yes. You are absolutely correct. But the injury trend still stands (even as we're having his debate, Carter is out).

I don't disagree that Carter's injuries don't create long term issues, but we have yet to see if Carter can stay on the floor. Some players just get perpetually injured. Eric Gordon comes to mind (his injuries were more severe, but they are also all over his body: shoulders, knees, fingers...). I hope Carter isn't one of them.

[CDu]

Yes. You are absolutely correct. But the injury trend still stands (even as we're having his debate, Carter is out).

I don't disagree that Carter's injuries don't create long term issues, but we have yet to see if Carter can stay on the floor. Some players just get perpetually injured. Eric Gordon comes to mind (his injuries were more severe, but they are also all over his body: shoulders, knees, fingers...). I hope Carter isn't one of them.

I don't see any reason to assume Carter's injuries are going to be a perpetual thing. And in terms of upside, that's what's relevant.

And in terms of performance to date, even with the injuries he has outproduced both Bagley and Trent. He leads in cumulative win shares with 6.2 over Bagley (4.2) and Trent (3.1). And has topped both players in each of the last two years, despite missing 22 of 65 games last year and missing 10 games so far this year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Add me to the list that isn't sure about this claim. If we are talking "potential" alone, then I'd say Bagley and Carter have more raw skills and have, in spurts, shown they can be solid, if not special, players. But if we factor in injuries and only focus on which player has done the most for their team, I have to give it up for Gary. He's not only a very dependable outside shooter, but he's also a solid defender and played the most meaningful minutes in the playoffs (the other two have nothing to show for that).

I like what Gary brings, and he's clearly developed the most of the bunch, but the eye test and the stats tell different stories. Gary, on the floor, looks like an engaged, active defender. He usually guards the best wing. But the stats aren't great. His defensive rating over the last two years is 120 and 117. That said, I think there is a lot wrong with this number because James Harden's defensive ratings from his rookie year to last year have been between 103 to 108 and there isn't anyone on this green Earth who believes Harden is a good defender.

Also, Gary has been developed in a solid franchise with a top 10 player. The Bulls are perpetually in no man's land and the Kings are dysfunctional at best.

Side note: this development is why I'm hoping Jalen Johnson gets drafted in the late lottery or mid first round; he needs solid development and the only bad teams currently in the lottery that can provide that are Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio, and OKC. If he's a top 6 draftee, his teams are likely to be Detroit, Washington, Minnesota, Houston, New Orleans, and New York. Side side note: given the way the Pelicans are recently playing, they aren't likely to be a high lottery pick.

[CDu]

I like what Gary brings, and he's clearly developed the most of the bunch, but the eye test and the stats tell different stories. Gary, on the floor, looks like an engaged, active defender. He usually guards the best wing. But the stats aren't great. His defensive rating over the last two years is 120 and 117. That said, I think there is a lot wrong with this number because James Harden's defensive ratings from his rookie year to last year have been between 103 to 108 and there isn't anyone on this green Earth who believes Harden is a good defender.

But has he really developed that much? I'd argue he's basically the same player as he was last year, just playing more minutes. He's a "3 and D" guy, with questionable D who does basically nothing else. He doesn't dribble, doesn't pass, doesn't rebound, and has gotten bad from 2pt range, and while he may be hustling all of the defensive metrics think he's bad on defense.

He's a really good catch-and-shoot 3pt shooter. But that seems to be pretty much all he does of any sort of quality.

Also, Gary has been developed in a solid franchise with a top 10 player. The Bulls are perpetually in no man's land and the Kings are dysfunctional at best.

I would definitely agree that the Bulls and Kings of recent history have been really bad for development. But the Bulls have a new front office (assistant GM from Denver took over replacing Forman/Paxson) and an actual head coach (Donovan) this year, so I don't think they'll remain in no man's land moving forward. Definitely a question with the Kings, although they are .500 in the brutal Western Conference. So I'm not sure they are a dumpster fire any more.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

But has he really developed that much? I'd argue he's basically the same player as he was last year, just playing more minutes. He's a "3 and D" guy, with questionable D who does basically nothing else. He doesn't dribble, doesn't pass, doesn't rebound, and has gotten bad from 2pt range, and while he may be hustling all of the defensive metrics think he's bad on defense.

He's a really good catch-and-shoot 3pt shooter. But that seems to be pretty much all he does of any sort of quality.



I would definitely agree that the Bulls and Kings of recent history have been really bad for development. But the Bulls have a new front office (assistant GM from Denver took over replacing Forman/Paxson) and an actual head coach (Donovan) this year, so I don't think they'll remain in no man's land moving forward. Definitely a question with the Kings, although they are .500 in the brutal Western Conference. So I'm not sure they are a dumpster fire any more.

Trent is seeing more and more PT and doing more with it. One could argue that he is either "developing" nicely, or is flat out good enough already to be an impact player on a playoff team.

[Alan_Wilson]

We can talk G league in here right? Big Vern had a monster day. 32/13 with 10 (!) offensive rebounds. The game is about over so he may get another bucket or rebound but either way you like to see it.

[CDu]

Trent is seeing more and more PT and doing more with it. One could argue that he is either "developing" nicely, or is flat out good enough already to be an impact player on a playoff team.

He's seeing more playing time and doing the same or slightly worse with it. Namely, he's being asked to do nothing but stand on the 3 point line and catch and shoot whenever Lillard or McCollum pass to him. He was making those 3s last year, he's making them this year.

But relative to Carter, he's simply not as good an overall player. That he happens to be on a playoff team and Carter is not is the result of the guys around them.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

He's seeing more playing time and doing the same or slightly worse with it. Namely, he's being asked to do nothing but stand on the 3 point line and catch and shoot whenever Lillard or McCollum pass to him. He was making those 3s last year, he's making them this year.

But relative to Carter, he's simply not as good an overall player. That he happens to be on a playoff team and Carter is not is the result of the guys around them.

Well, he's scoring more points per game each season. That's doing something with it.

You do realize there is not an empirically correct or incorrect answer here, right?

[CDu]

Well, he's scoring more points per game each season. That's doing something with it.

You do realize there is not an empirically correct or incorrect answer here, right?

I mean, I think there is. That is exactly what the advanced stats are there for, and those metrics favor Carter.

I am by no means saying Trent is a bad player. He isn’t; he is a pretty good floor spacer if you have the guards to allow him to not have to do much but catch-and-shoot. I am just saying that Carter is and has been the better player. And that I haven’t seen Trent make any substantive changes to his game to suggest he will catch up, and none of his metrics suggest it either: statistically he is the same player as last year, just getting more playing time.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I mean, I think there is. That is exactly what the advanced stats are there for, and those metrics favor Carter.

I am by no means saying Trent is a bad player. He isn’t; he is a pretty good floor spacer if you have the guards to allow him to not have to do much but catch-and-shoot. I am just saying that Carter is and has been the better player. And that I haven’t seen Trent make any substantive changes to his game to suggest he will catch up, and none of his metrics suggest it either: statistically he is the same player as last year, just getting more playing time.

Metrics are great and useful, but they don't tell the whole story. Agree to disagree. I suspect that if we look back in five years, Trent will be the clearly more valuable player.

I'd be inclined to wager pie on it, if pies weren't so controversial these days.

[CDu]

Metrics are great and useful, but they don't tell the whole story. Agree to disagree. I suspect that if we look back in five years, Trent will be the clearly more valuable player.

I'd be inclined to wager pie on it, if pies weren't so controversial these days.

If I was a betting man, and if there was some metric that you would actually accept such that we could agree upon who won, I would take that bet. But SS I am not a bettor and as it appears you don’t accept the available metrics we have, it seems there would be no bet to be had.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If I was a betting man, and if there was some metric that you would actually accept such that we could agree upon who won, I would take that bet. But SS I am not a bettor and as it appears you don’t accept the available metrics we have, it seems there would be no bet to be had.

Not being combative, but genuinely curious and wanting to spin this back on topic and away from our disagreement - according to your metrics, who are our current top former Duke players this season in order?

[budwom]

All I know is the last time we had a legendary hoop coach and went with his "coaching tree" for a successor, it was a massive, gargantuan clusterfob (and those aren't good).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

All I know is the last time we had a legendary hoop coach and went with his "coaching tree" for a successor, it was a massive, gargantuan clusterfob (and those aren't good).

Wrong thread?

[flyingdutchdevil]

All I know is the last time we had a legendary hoop coach and went with his "coaching tree" for a successor, it was a massive, gargantuan clusterfob (and those aren't good).

Wrong thread.

[CDu]

Not being combative, but genuinely curious and wanting to spin this back on topic and away from our disagreement - according to your metrics, who are our current top former Duke players this season in order?

Oh man, you should know my love of making lists. There are SO many guys. But yeah, I'll try to put a list together tonight.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Oh man, you should know my love of making lists. There are SO many guys. But yeah, I'll try to put a list together tonight.

I love that we have SO many guys!

[JetpackJesus]

If you have Insider, Zach Lowe talks about the exact same thing:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ant-brilliance

Uproxx also has a good one on the evolution of Zion's usage.

My favorite part about the Uproxx and Atheltic articles are this clip of Zion from the Kings game a few weeks ago:

[SouthernDukie]

Uproxx also has a good one on the evolution of Zion's usage.

My favorite part about the Uproxx and Atheltic articles are this clip of Zion from the Kings game a few weeks ago:

And this usage of Zion to initiate the offense up top is WITHOUT him even having a pull-up jumper!!! That’s what so incredible about it. He’s such a threat with the dribble heading toward the basket that he still warrants shading or straight up doubles in spite of no viable outside shot. It’s just unbelievable.

[Billy Dat]

I am watching Knicks v Wizards (with Pels v Mavs during commercials) and, first off, the Wizards, playing with Beal, are terrible. But that's not what inspired me to come here and post...

With a few minutes left in the half, RJ, guarded by Rui Hachimura, called for a clear out, drove on Rui, and was thwarted at the rim. Suddenly, the Verizon Center faded away and I was back in the Lahaina Civic Center in November 2018.