Dukies in the NBA 2020-21

[Steven43]

Former Duke player keys Celtics win with 24 pts on 6-8 shooting from 3.
And it was not Tatum (It was Semi).

Yep, and Ojeleye actually started the game, which I don’t remember him doing before. He was 8-12 from the floor (6-8 from 3-pt, as you mentioned). And rookie Payton Pritchard scored 20 pts, while going 6-8 from 3-pt, and added 5 rebounds.

Strong contributions from Celtics players other than the usual cohort of Tatum, Brown, and Walker.

[kshepinthehouse]

Yep, and Ojeleye actually started the game, which I don’t remember him doing before. He was 8-12 from the floor (6-8 from 3-pt, as you mentioned). And rookie Payton Pritchard scored 20 pts, while going 6-8 from 3-pt, and added 5 rebounds.

Strong contributions from Celtics players other than the usual cohort of Tatum, Brown, and Walker.

Did you get your pie?

[Steven43]

Did you get your pie?

I’m literally eating a slice right now! Thanks again, kshep; it’s a delicious Dutch Apple🍏 pie. 😊

[BigZ]

Who had Grayson Allen being the best player from 2015 and Gary Trent from 2018 ?

[JasonEvans]

Who had Grayson Allen being the best player from 2015 and Gary Trent from 2018 ?

Tyus is still better than Grayson and, when healthy, Justise Winslow has been the best of all of them.

As for 2018, it is still a close race. Trent has spurts where he looks fabulous, but I don't think he has quite eclipsed Bagley yet. And Wendell is another guy who has a terrible injury bug. I suspect both big from the 2018 class would do well with a change of scenery.

[CDu]

Tyus is still better than Grayson and, when healthy, Justise Winslow has been the best of all of them.

As for 2018, it is still a close race. Trent has spurts where he looks fabulous, but I don't think he has quite eclipsed Bagley yet. And Wendell is another guy who has a terrible injury bug. I suspect both big from the 2018 class would do well with a change of scenery.

Agreed on Allen being comfortably third in his class. As for Trent’s class, Carter is clearly above both Trent and Bagley. Bagley is slightly ahead of Trent, but that is close.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Agreed on Allen being comfortably third in his class. As for Trent’s class, Carter is clearly above both Trent and Bagley. Bagley is slightly ahead of Trent, but that is close.

Wow, I'm not sure about that. Trent is definitely ascending, and Carter has been injured, but I think you could argue that Gary is the top of his class today and has the most upside to improve.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agreed on Allen being comfortably third in his class. As for Trent’s class, Carter is clearly above both Trent and Bagley. Bagley is slightly ahead of Trent, but that is close.

I'm not so sure. Carter is indeed effective and puts up solid numbers, but he misses a ton of games. In his first three seasons (including this one), Carter has missed 46% of games. In every season (including this one), he's missed at least 40% of them. It's too early to call Carter perpetually injury prone, but recent results aren't promising.

Trent, on the other hand, hasn't missed a lot of games since he started playing a lot for Portland. The sample size is a lot smaller, but the results are really good.

As for Bagley, yeah... that Luka and Trae picks are making Sacramento look really, really bad.

[budwom]

Semi with 24 points, six threes...

[DukieInBrasil]

Agreed on Allen being comfortably third in his class. As for Trent’s class, Carter is clearly above both Trent and Bagley. Bagley is slightly ahead of Trent, but that is close.

Can you point out what makes you assert that Carter is clearly better than both? From my non-advanced stats view Carter and Bagley look pretty similar, and Wendell's been injured almost as much as Bagley. Trent's value has really gone up this year (14-2.2-1.3), while Bagley's has gone down a little this year . Carter's career stats (11.1-8.2-1.6) vs. Bagley's (14.2-7.5-0.9) don't seem clearly better to me, in fact one might argue that Bagley is perhaps slightly better. Given that they would all be Sr.s this year at Duke, and are instead all averaging over 10ppg in the NBA is a sign that they made the right move in jumping into the draft.
Withe NBA's focus on 3pt shooting, i might have to agree that GT2's long-term value might be greater than either WC2 or MB3's.

[Native]

Great article (Paywall) on Zion’s improvement in The Athletic this morning:

Zion Williamson is taking over: Inside his dominant run for the Pelicans
Hitting more shots from the perimeter has fueled some of that improvement, but the most significant difference has been the birth of “Point Zion” and the effect he’s had on his teammates.

“I think people tend to think of Zion as an inside guy. I look at him as a perimeter player who can post up,” Van Gundy said. “He’s evolved this year from a guy who the majority of his scoring opportunities a year ago were in the post to being much more of a perimeter player and into now even more initiating our offense.”

Since Jan. 27, Zion has registered 105 drives to the basket, only 10 fewer than he had his entire rookie season, according to NBA.com. The only forwards with more drives than Williamson during that period are Brandon Ingram (121) and Jimmy Butler (116).

The former No. 1 overall pick is bringing the ball up the court more often. His coaches have given him the freedom to dictate the action on offense and attack favorable matchups when he identifies them.

According to Synergy, he’s already doubled his number of isolation possessions from this year (48) to last year (24) and he ranks in the 91st percentile on scoring efficiency on those plays.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Great article (Paywall) on Zion’s improvement in The Athletic this morning:

If you have Insider, Zach Lowe talks about the exact same thing:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ant-brilliance

[CDu]

Wow, I'm not sure about that. Trent is definitely ascending, and Carter has been injured, but I think you could argue that Gary is the top of his class today and has the most upside to improve.

By basically every measure PER, Carter is ahead. PER, it's Carter 16.8 to Trent 13.1. ORtg, it's Carter 116 to Trent 115. DRtg, it's Carter 111 to Trent 120 (you want this number lower). In win shares, Carter is ahead 1.0 to 0.9 despite missing a bunch of games recently (his win shares per 48 is double Trent's). Carter leads in rebounds, steals, assists, and blocks per 36 minutes, and is close behind in scoring but with a better TS%. I'd be hard-pressed to find a convincing argument that Trent is ahead of Carter today. By PER, Trent has never had as good a season as Carter's worst season.

And in terms of improvement, I'd give Carter the edge too. Besides shooting open jumpers, Trent brings little to the table. I'd argue he's pretty much at his ceiling right now playing off the ball to Lillard and McCollum. He's basically playing about the same or worse than he did last year just on more minutes. Carter, I'd argue, is ascending. He spent the first two years in bball purgatory with the worst head coach in the NBA. With Billy Donovan, his game is starting to blossom. The only knock on him so far is that his 3pt shot hasn't developed yet (but it's improving) and he keeps getting minor injuries. But Carter is developing into a nice two-way big, and as his 3pt shot improves I think he's going to be a real asset.

[CDu]

Can you point out what makes you assert that Carter is clearly better than both? From my non-advanced stats view Carter and Bagley look pretty similar, and Wendell's been injured almost as much as Bagley. Trent's value has really gone up this year (14-2.2-1.3), while Bagley's has gone down a little this year . Carter's career stats (11.1-8.2-1.6) vs. Bagley's (14.2-7.5-0.9) don't seem clearly better to me, in fact one might argue that Bagley is perhaps slightly better. Given that they would all be Sr.s this year at Duke, and are instead all averaging over 10ppg in the NBA is a sign that they made the right move in jumping into the draft.
Withe NBA's focus on 3pt shooting, i might have to agree that GT2's long-term value might be greater than either WC2 or MB3's.

It mostly lies in the advanced metrics, as well as the trend in performance. See my post above for the comparison with Trent. With Bagley, it's a little easier as the two play the same position essentially. Bagley was clearly better than Carter when they were rookies. But whereas Carter treaded water for his first two years and has improved this year, Bagley has steadily gotten worse each year. His PER is 13.4 this year, down from 18.9 as a rookie and 15.6 last year (Carter went 15.2, 15.5, and is up to 16.8 this year). Bagley is the better 3pt shooter, but Carter is the better defender and passer. And Carter is a much more efficient scorer (eFG% of .549 to Bagley's .521; TS% of .600 to Bagley's .525).

[sagegrouse]

By basically every measure PER, Carter is ahead. PER, it's Carter 16.8 to Trent 13.1. ORtg, it's Carter 116 to Trent 115. DRtg, it's Carter 111 to Trent 120 (you want this number lower). In win shares, Carter is ahead 1.0 to 0.9 despite missing a bunch of games recently (his win shares per 48 is double Trent's). Carter leads in rebounds, steals, assists, and blocks per 36 minutes, and is close behind in scoring but with a better TS%. I'd be hard-pressed to find a convincing argument that Trent is ahead of Carter today. By PER, Trent has never had as good a season as Carter's worst season.

And in terms of improvement, I'd give Carter the edge too. Besides shooting open jumpers, Trent brings little to the table. I'd argue he's pretty much at his ceiling right now playing off the ball to Lillard and McCollum. He's basically playing about the same or worse than he did last year just on more minutes. Carter, I'd argue, is ascending. He spent the first two years in bball purgatory with the worst head coach in the NBA. With Billy Donovan, his game is starting to blossom. The only knock on him so far is that his 3pt shot hasn't developed yet (but it's improving) and he keeps getting minor injuries. But Carter is developing into a nice two-way big, and as his 3pt shot improves I think he's going to be a real asset.

I have a two-word response or question about Wendell's value: "in juries."

[CDu]

I have a two-word response or question about Wendell's value: "in juries."

And I would argue that is another feather in his cap. All of his injuries have been minor and fluky. I doubt that injuries persist throughout his career. So he's the best player of the 3 right now, and as his injury luck improves he should get even better.

[flyingdutchdevil]

And I would argue that is another feather in his cap. All of his injuries have been minor and fluky. I doubt that injuries persist throughout his career. So he's the best player of the 3 right now, and as his injury luck improves he should get even better.

You don't miss 54% of games with minor injuries.

If Carter's injuries are minor and fluky, so are Winslow's.

[flyingdutchdevil]

You don't miss 46% of games with minor injuries.

If Carter's injuries are minor and fluky, so are Winslow's.

EDIT: Changed number of games missed (1 - 54%)

[CDu]

You don't miss 46% of games with minor injuries.

If Carter's injuries are minor and fluky, so are Winslow's.

Your math is a little off, as the Bulls didn't play a full season last year and Carter had some games off that were unrelated to injuries.

But "minor" is probably the wrong word. "Not long-term significant" is what I meant by minor. But absolutely fluky. His injuries are as follows:

2019: Sprained thumb (non-shooting hand), cost him 35 games
2020: Sprained ankle, cost him 22 games
2021: deep thigh bruise, has cost him 10 games (might be back this weekend)

Winslow's injuries are also fluky, but they are a bit more concerning. A hip injury and back problems are more concerning long-term.

[SouthernDukie]

Agreed on Allen being comfortably third in his class. As for Trent’s class, Carter is clearly above both Trent and Bagley. Bagley is slightly ahead of Trent, but that is close.

Add me to the list that isn't sure about this claim. If we are talking "potential" alone, then I'd say Bagley and Carter have more raw skills and have, in spurts, shown they can be solid, if not special, players. But if we factor in injuries and only focus on which player has done the most for their team, I have to give it up for Gary. He's not only a very dependable outside shooter, but he's also a solid defender and played the most meaningful minutes in the playoffs (the other two have nothing to show for that).