Early 2021 Draft Chatter

[JasonEvans]

It's completely relevant.

Senior Wojo started ahead of freshman Will Avery all season, despite Avery having more raw talent as an analog for Moore starting ahead of a higher ranked recruit because of leadership and defense. K still values those things as much now as he did 23 seasons ago.

As Kedsy mentioned, we didn't really have recruiting rankings back then, but I'd wager Avery would have been fairly high in the rankings.

There were some recruiting rankings back then. Brand, Battier, and Burgess were all consensus top 10 recruits (each of them were actually ranked #1 in the 1997 class at various points in their career). Avery was considered a top 20 recruit, though not in the top 10.

I remember all of this pretty vividly. I recall dubbing the class "The GPAs" because it contained "Three Bs and an A."

[FerryFor50]

There were some recruiting rankings back then. Brand, Battier, and Burgess were all consensus top 10 recruits (each of them were actually ranked #1 in the 1997 class at various points in their career). Avery was considered a top 20 recruit, though not in the top 10.

I remember all of this pretty vividly. I recall dubbing the class "The GPAs" because it contained "Three Bs and an A."

Thanks for that. Google failed me.

I do recall Burgess being highly ranked and then being utterly disappointing.

But top 20 is still nothing to sneeze at. Where was Wojo ranked?

[CDu]

Thanks for that. Google failed me.

I do recall Burgess being highly ranked and then being utterly disappointing.

But top 20 is still nothing to sneeze at. Where was Wojo ranked?

Wojo was a McD’s All-American, so I would venture at least top-30. But Wojo was a 2-year starter by that point whereas Avery was in the 20-30 recruit range. Whereas Moore is a fringe starter this year and Banchero and Griffin are top-10s.

One could make a case that Moore could start alongside Banchero and Griffin next year, pushing one of Williams/Steward/Roach to the bench. But I would be VERY surprised if Moore started over a healthy Griffin and Banchero.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks for that. Google failed me.

I do recall Burgess being highly ranked and then being utterly disappointing.

But top 20 is still nothing to sneeze at. Where was Wojo ranked?

I heard the problem was somewhere in his camp.

[Acymetric]

I'm not sure what the answer is here, but I'm pretty sure Wojo in college 23-26 seasons ago is relevant to virtually nothing in the current environment, whether Moore's situation or else wise.

It's completely relevant.

Senior Wojo started ahead of freshman Will Avery all season, despite Avery having more raw talent as an analog for Moore starting ahead of a higher ranked recruit because of leadership and defense. K still values those things as much now as he did 23 seasons ago.

As Kedsy mentioned, we didn't really have recruiting rankings back then, but I'd wager Avery would have been fairly high in the rankings.

I think the point was that the game has changed too much for that ~30 year old example to be relevant.

[FerryFor50]

I heard the problem was somewhere in his camp.

Yea but how was his motor?

[Kedsy]

Yea but what top 10 recruit has displaced someone with Moore's talents? I listed Thornton, Jones, Goldwire, etc. but Moore has more talent than those examples and was #25 RCSI himself.

If everyone except Hurt on the current roster returns, and the only freshmen are Griffin and Banchero, we will have two top 10 freshmen and four top 25 returnees. It doesn't happen that often in recent times that those two categories exceed five on a Duke roster (only 5 times in the 21st Century).

TOP 10 FRESHMEN PLUS TOP 30 RETURNEES

2021: 2
2020: 2
2019: 4
2018: 5
2017: 6 (two top 10 freshman, Tatum who started and Giles who was mostly injured and only started a handful of games)
2016: 3
2015: 4
2014: 3
2013: 2
2012: 3
2011: 5
2010: 5
2009: 6 (no top 10 freshmen)
2008: 7 (only one top 10 freshman, Singler, who started)
2007: 4
2006: 5
2005: 5
2004: 7 (only one top 10 freshman, Deng, who started)
2003: 4
2002: 5
2001: 7 (one top 10 freshman, Duhon, who didn't start until Boozer got hurt)
2000: 5

Even expanding it to top 15 frosh and top 30 returnees, since Duke joined the OAD era (2011) it's only happened twice in 10 years (2017 and 2018).

TOP 15 FRESHMEN PLUS TOP 30 RETURNEES

2021: 3
2020: 3
2019: 5
2018: 6
2017: 7 (including soph Jeter and frosh Bolden)
2016: 5
2015: 5
2014: 3
2013: 3
2012: 3
2011: 5
2010: 6 (including frosh Kelly)
2009: 8 (only one freshman, #15 Eliot Williams, who eventually jumped into the starting lineup)
2008: 7
2007: 4
2006: 6
2005: 5
2004: 7
2003: 6
2002: 5
2001: 7
2000: 5

Despite the rarity of this occurrence, the answer to your question is:

Shelden Williams (#8) displaced (Sr) Casey Sanders in the starting lineup in 2003 (though it was almost a split: 23 starts for SW; 21 starts for CS)
Luol Deng (#2) displaced (So) Shavlik Randolph in the starting lineup in 2004
Josh McRoberts (#1) displaced (So) DeMarcus Nelson in 2006
Kyle Singler (#6) displaced (So) Jon Scheyer in 2008.
Kyrie Irving (#2) displaced (So) Seth Curry in 2011.
Tyus Jones (#7) and Justice Winslow (#13) displaced (Jr) Rasheed Sulaimon (and (So) Matt Jones) in 2015.
Wendell Carter (#7) displaced (So) Marques Bolden in 2018.
Vernon Carey (#5) and Matthew Hurt (#12) displaced (Sr) Javin DeLaurier (and (Jr) Alex O'Connell) in 2020.


In other words, your scenario (top 10 freshman displacing talented returnees) happens much more often than top 10 freshmen riding the bench. Since we'll hypothetically have six top 10 freshmen + top 30 returnees, one of them will have to sit. It might be Moore, it might be Williams, it might even be Roach. But it won't be Griffin or Banchero.

If Baldwin (#1 in the Summer RSCI) and/or Keels (#17 in the Summer RSCI and reportedly rising) come to Duke, that will muddle the math even further.


.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

If everyone except Hurt on the current roster returns, and the only freshmen are Griffin and Banchero, we will have two top 10 freshmen and four top 25 returnees. It doesn't happen that often in recent times that those two categories exceed five on a Duke roster (only 5 times in the 21st Century).

TOP 10 FRESHMEN PLUS TOP 30 RETURNEES

2021: 2
2020: 2
2019: 4
2018: 5
2017: 6 (including top 10 freshman Giles who was mostly injured and only started a handful of games)
2016: 3
2015: 4
2014: 3
2013: 2
2012: 3
2011: 5
2010: 5
2009: 6 (no top 10 freshmen)
2008: 7 (only one top 10 freshman, who started)
2007: 4
2006: 5
2005: 5
2004: 7 (only one top 10 freshman, who started)
2003: 4
2002: 5
2001: 7 (one top 10 freshman, who didn't start until Carlos Boozer got hurt)
2000: 5

Even expanding it to top 15 frosh and top 30 returnees, since Duke joined the OAD era (2011) it's only happened twice in 10 years (2017 and 2018).

TOP 15 FRESHMEN PLUS TOP 30 RETURNEES

2021: 3
2020: 3
2019: 5
2018: 6
2017: 7 (including soph Jeter and frosh Bolden)
2016: 5
2015: 5
2014: 3
2013: 3
2012: 3
2011: 5
2010: 6 (including frosh Kelly)
2009: 8 (only one freshman, #15 Eliot Williams, who eventually jumped into the starting lineup)
2008: 7
2007: 4
2006: 6
2005: 5
2004: 7
2003: 6
2002: 5
2001: 7
2000: 5

Despite the rarity of this occurrence, the answer to your question is:

Shelden Williams (#8) displaced (Sr) Casey Sanders in the starting lineup in 2003 (though it was almost a split: 23 starts for SW; 21 starts for CS)
Luol Deng (#2) displaced (So) Shavlik Randolph in the starting lineup in 2004
Josh McRoberts (#1) displaced (So) DeMarcus Nelson in 2006
Kyle Singler (#6) displaced (So) Jon Scheyer in 2008.
Kyrie Irving (#2) displaced (So) Seth Curry in 2011.
Tyus Jones (#7) and Justice Winslow (#13) displaced (Jr) Rasheed Sulaimon (and (So) Matt Jones) in 2015.
Wendell Carter (#7) displaced (So) Marques Bolden in 2018.
Vernon Carey (#5) and Matthew Hurt (#12) displaced (Sr) Javin DeLaurier (and (Jr) Alex O'Connell) in 2020.


In other words, your scenario (top 10 freshman displacing talented returnees) happens much more often than top 10 freshmen riding the bench. Since we'll hypothetically have six top 10 freshmen + top 30 returnees, one of them will have to sit. It might be Moore, it might be Williams, it might even be Roach. But it won't be Griffin or Banchero.

If Baldwin (#1 in the Summer RSCI) and/or Keels (#17 in the Summer RSCI and reportedly rising) come to Duke, that will muddle the math even further.

Too much talent?

[Kedsy]

Too much talent?

Not really. It's just that one or more really good players won't get to start. Since Moore can essentially play three positions, he might make the most sense as a 6th man.

Now, if Baldwin and/or Keels join the fun, then you could argue that one or more really good players won't play much at all, in which case I guess the "too much talent" question might have a different answer (and who knows whether such player(s) would want to stick around if they have other good options).

[FerryFor50]

Despite the rarity of this occurrence, the answer to your question is:

Shelden Williams (#8) displaced (Sr) Casey Sanders in the starting lineup in 2003 (though it was almost a split: 23 starts for SW; 21 starts for CS)
Luol Deng (#2) displaced (So) Shavlik Randolph in the starting lineup in 2004
Josh McRoberts (#1) displaced (So) DeMarcus Nelson in 2006
Kyle Singler (#6) displaced (So) Jon Scheyer in 2008.
Kyrie Irving (#2) displaced (So) Seth Curry in 2011.
Tyus Jones (#7) and Justice Winslow (#13) displaced (Jr) Rasheed Sulaimon (and (So) Matt Jones) in 2015.
Wendell Carter (#7) displaced (So) Marques Bolden in 2018.
Vernon Carey (#5) and Matthew Hurt (#12) displaced (Sr) Javin DeLaurier (and (Jr) Alex O'Connell) in 2020.


In other words, your scenario (top 10 freshman displacing talented returnees) happens much more often than top 10 freshmen riding the bench. Since we'll hypothetically have six top 10 freshmen + top 30 returnees, one of them will have to sit. It might be Moore, it might be Williams, it might even be Roach. But it won't be Griffin or Banchero.

If Baldwin (#1 in the Summer RSCI) and/or Keels (#17 in the Summer RSCI and reportedly rising) come to Duke, that will muddle the math even further.

Thanks for the detailed response. Way more than I expected.

As for your list, beyond the rankings, there were performance considerations. And many of the ones you listed weren't regular starters the year before they got "replaced" by the incoming freshman. Moore has started 13 of Duke's 19 games.

- Shelden replacing Sanders was pretty predictable; Sanders never panned out as a recruit (4.6ppg, 5.2 rpg in his SR year) and was never really a regular starter
- Luol replacing Shav was also fairly predictable; Shav underwhelmed as a freshman and didn't start as a freshman
- McRoberts over Nelson also made sense based on performance, but it was more about them starting SR PG Sean Dockery over Nelson, which I think reinforces my original point; Dockery was kept in the starting lineup for his defense and leadership abilities. Nelson wasn't a regular starter, so wasn't "replaced"
- Singler replacing Scheyer here is actually the best comp in my opinon; Scheyer was definitely a major contributer as a SO (probably moreso than Moore even)
- Kyrie over Seth Curry - that was just an obvious choice.
- Tyus over Jones is also a good comp (not including Justise/Sheed) - I feel like Moore and Jones have some similarities, with Moore being better off the dribble than Jones. But FR/SO Jones didn't start regularly (14 of 39 games as SO)
- Carter over Bolden - again, makes sense from a performance perspective; Bolden was not as good as his ranking and did not produce much and was never a regular starter until his JR year
- Carey/Hurt over DeLaurier/OConnell - neither OConnell nor DeLaurier were regular starters when they got "replaced" in the starting lineup

[UrinalCake]

I think the best analog for Griffin potentially replacing Moore in the starting lineup would be Corey Maggette not starting over Chris Carrawell. I love this example because the players themselves are so similar. Google tells me that Maggette was #16 in the RSCI but it was clear from day 1 that he was a top-10 level talent and probably top-5. And for the same reasons I think Moore would start but Griffin would be our super 6th man.

[FerryFor50]

I think the best analog for Griffin potentially replacing Moore in the starting lineup would be Corey Maggette not starting over Chris Carrawell. I love this example because the players themselves are so similar. Google tells me that Maggette was #16 in the RSCI but it was clear from day 1 that he was a top-10 level talent and probably top-5. And for the same reasons I think Moore would start but Griffin would be our super 6th man.

That's another good comp. Similar production their SO years, though Carawell was a better shooter % wise.

[Kedsy]

Thanks for the detailed response. Way more than I expected.

As for your list, beyond the rankings, there were performance considerations. And many of the ones you listed weren't regular starters the year before they got "replaced" by the incoming freshman. Moore has started 13 of Duke's 19 games.

- Shelden replacing Sanders was pretty predictable; Sanders never panned out as a recruit (4.6ppg, 5.2 rpg in his SR year) and was never really a regular starter
- Luol replacing Shav was also fairly predictable; Shav underwhelmed as a freshman and didn't start as a freshman
- McRoberts over Nelson also made sense based on performance, but it was more about them starting SR PG Sean Dockery over Nelson, which I think reinforces my original point; Dockery was kept in the starting lineup for his defense and leadership abilities. Nelson wasn't a regular starter, so wasn't "replaced"
- Singler replacing Scheyer here is actually the best comp in my opinon; Scheyer was definitely a major contributer as a SO (probably moreso than Moore even)
- Kyrie over Seth Curry - that was just an obvious choice.
- Tyus over Jones is also a good comp (not including Justise/Sheed) - I feel like Moore and Jones have some similarities, with Moore being better off the dribble than Jones. But FR/SO Jones didn't start regularly (14 of 39 games as SO)
- Carter over Bolden - again, makes sense from a performance perspective; Bolden was not as good as his ranking and did not produce much and was never a regular starter until his JR year
- Carey/Hurt over DeLaurier/OConnell - neither OConnell nor DeLaurier were regular starters when they got "replaced" in the starting lineup

Top ten freshmen almost always start at Duke (and anywhere else, frankly). You asked for examples of such players starting over talented returnees and I gave them to you, but now you're picking them apart one by one because they were predictable and/or obvious? You could just as easily say AJ Griffin (who some people are touting as a #1 pick a year from now, but certainly lottery) starting ahead of Wendell Moore is predictable and obvious too.

It's not really a matter of "replacing" a previous year's starter, it's a matter of a super-talented freshman starting (or not) over a talented returnee. The fact that Wendell started 13 of 19 games this season and, e.g., Shav Randolph only started 6 of 26 games in 2003 is more a testament to the relative strength of the 2003 team vs. the 2021 team than anything else. Same with all the other players who weren't regular starters the year before -- if the top 10 freshman hadn't arrived on Duke's campus, they would have been starters that year.

Put another way, freshman AJ Griffin probably has as much or more of a talent edge over junior Wendell Moore as freshman Wendell Carter had over defensive-minded soph Marques Bolden, as freshman Matthew Hurt had over defensive-minded senior Javin DeLaurier, as Kyrie had over Seth Curry, etc., etc. I agree that in most of the examples above, it was obvious the talented freshman should have started. It's just as obvious here.

[jimsumner]

RE: DeMarcus Nelson in 2005-06.

Nelson injured a foot in Duke's 4th game that season and missed 12 games, by which time senior Sean Dockery had taken over as the third perimeter starter, along with Redick and Paulus.

Nelson started two games in '04-'05 and averaged 19.2 mpg. He started seven in '05-'06 and averaged 21.2 mpg.

I think it's more accurate to state that Josh McRoberts took the starting power forward spot from departed Shavlik Randolph. It's hard for me to see how Nelson lost his starting spot at shooting guard to a 6-10 power forward.

[sagegrouse]

Thanks for that. Google failed me.

I do recall Burgess being highly ranked and then being utterly disappointing.

But top 20 is still nothing to sneeze at. Where was Wojo ranked?

Burgess was somewhat disappointing; Jalen Johnson was utterly disappointing -- preseason All-ACC to the bench to withdrawal from school.

[CDu]

I think the best analog for Griffin potentially replacing Moore in the starting lineup would be Corey Maggette not starting over Chris Carrawell. I love this example because the players themselves are so similar. Google tells me that Maggette was #16 in the RSCI but it was clear from day 1 that he was a top-10 level talent and probably top-5. And for the same reasons I think Moore would start but Griffin would be our super 6th man.

That's another good comp. Similar production their SO years, though Carawell was a better shooter % wise.

I think Carrawell is perhaps a reasonable comp for Moore, although Carrawell was a much better player (and on MUCH better, deeper teams) in his first two years than Moore was in his first two years. Carrawell's freshman year alone was worth more win shares (2.6) than Moore's freshman and sophomore years combined (2.1). But stylistically there are some similarities for sure, even though Carrawell was the better player at this stage.

But I don't think Maggette is a reasonable comp for Griffin. Maggette's physical tools are far superior to Griffin's, but his basketball skills weren't nearly as advanced as Griffin's are coming out of high school. Maggette was a freak of nature physically, but his bball skills didn't really take off until he was a few years into the NBA. Griffin is a much more polished player, hence his elevated ranking.

Based on these things, I'd say that Griffin would be the starter and Moore would be the versatile sixth man. Especially so if Williams starts at C, in which case we'd want the better offensive player (which is Griffin).

That said, I could very well see a scenario in which Moore starts over Roach or Williams alongside the two stud freshmen.

[Kedsy]

RE: DeMarcus Nelson in 2005-06.

Nelson injured a foot in Duke's 4th game that season and missed 12 games, by which time senior Sean Dockery had taken over as the third perimeter starter, along with Redick and Paulus.

Nelson started two games in '04-'05 and averaged 19.2 mpg. He started seven in '05-'06 and averaged 21.2 mpg.

I think it's more accurate to state that Josh McRoberts took the starting power forward spot from departed Shavlik Randolph. It's hard for me to see how Nelson lost his starting spot at shooting guard to a 6-10 power forward.

DeMarcus played PF in super-small lineups in 2007 and 2008. If K wanted to, he could have done the same in 2006, though obviously McRoberts gave him a better option.

Next season, it's easy to see a starting lineup of Roach, Steward, Griffin, Banchero, and Moore; and just as easy to envision a lineup of Roach, Steward, Griffin, Banchero, and Williams. If we go with the latter, who would Williams have "taken" the starting spot from? I'd argue Moore (since he'd be the only starter in the first lineup not starting in the second), even though he would have lost his starting spot at SF to a 7'1" center. I was saying McRoberts "took" the spot from Nelson in the same way.

If you're only looking from year-to-year, you might say in my example that Griffin took Moore's spot, which was my original assertion, anyway.

[jimsumner]

DeMarcus played PF in super-small lineups in 2007 and 2008. If K wanted to, he could have done the same in 2006, though obviously McRoberts gave him a better option.

Next season, it's easy to see a starting lineup of Roach, Steward, Griffin, Banchero, and Moore; and just as easy to envision a lineup of Roach, Steward, Griffin, Banchero, and Williams. If we go with the latter, who would Williams have "taken" the starting spot from? I'd argue Moore (since he'd be the only starter in the first lineup not starting in the second), even though he would have lost his starting spot at SF to a 7'1" center. I was saying McRoberts "took" the spot from Nelson in the same way.

If you're only looking from year-to-year, you might say in my example that Griffin took Moore's spot, which was my original assertion, anyway.

You're saying that a realistic option in 2006 was to replace 6-10 Shavlik Randolph at power forward with a backup 6-2 sophomore shooting guard while keeping on the bench a 6-10 freshman who happened to be the top-ranked player in the 2005 prep class? A starting lineup with ONE player taller than 6-3?

After Eric Boateng transferred following the 2006 season, Duke did play some super-small lineups in 2007 and 2008. But not very often and certainly not relevant to 2006 when the need was not there. Josh McRoberts and DeMarcus Nelson overlapped at Duke for two seasons and never competed for playing time during that span.

[throatybeard]

It's completely relevant.

Senior Wojo started ahead of freshman Will Avery all season, despite Avery having more raw talent as an analog for Moore starting ahead of a higher ranked recruit because of leadership and defense. K still values those things as much now as he did 23 seasons ago.

As Kedsy mentioned, we didn't really have recruiting rankings back then, but I'd wager Avery would have been fairly high in the rankings.

We all know what happened. It's not applicable to the current era for a number of reasons, but the main ones are that Duke-calibre programs aren't stacked with seniors (and even juniors) any longer, and talented freshman jump in volume to the pros even if they won't be drafted. You might as well compared baseball in 2001 with baseball in 1971, or 2021/1991. Krzyzewski has more than proven that he's not running his program like it's 1998, and guys getting "recruited over" is de rigueur now.

[kAzE]

All of the Blue Devils have seen their draft stock decline since the last update by ESPN (Jonathan Givony).

Jalen Johnson is down to #8, Matthew Hurt dropped to #44, and DJ Steward to #66.

I think we can safely assume DJ will stay, but #44 is pretty low for Matthew Hurt, who really had an incredible season as one of the leading scorers in the ACC. He's ranked too low to have his own little analysis blurb, so I wonder why Givony dropped him.

I can't see him having a much better season next year if he returned, but maybe it would help to see how he fits in with other NBA ready talent like Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin. I would certainly not mind if Matt came back. It would tough (defensively) to put him on the floor with both Paolo and Mark, but I just think we could really use his shooting. Without him, I think we will be a pretty mediocre to below average 3 point shooting team.

Outside of Duke, I found it pretty shocking that Brandon Boston, a guy we heavily recruited and was thought to be a lottery talent, has dropped all the way to #34. He really hurt his stock this year. Isaiah Jackson is actually the highest ranked UK player at #12.