Early 2021 Draft Chatter

[uh_no]

Just thought it was worth noting that ESPN currently has the following Dukies ranked among the top 100 prospects currently in college:

Jalen Johnson #6
Matthew Hurt #41
DJ Steward #72

This would lend credence to the notion that JJ and Hurt are the only guys likely to leave after this season... and that it is far from a no-brainer decision for Hurt.

It wouldn't be the first time a duke player left despite the NBA not being particularly interested in drafting him....but I wouldn't put that players attitude on anyone on this team.

[dudog84]

I can't imagine Jalen will be 6 unless there is an adjustment by him on buying in to contributing to a team. Talented and very fluid, he can improve his shooting if he works hard and I don't know if he does or doesn't work hard. His comps could be Kyle Anderson and Ben Simmons and both of those guys do the little things as well for their teams. In addition to size and passing, Kyle has learned to shoot and Simmons has become a plus defensive player. I hope he has a turnaround but seems like most scouts will grade him down for not responding to K so far. If he leaves before the season is over he will eliminate a lot of teams from drafting him. Which means the teams that consider themselves behavior changers should get him at a lower position in the draft.

Man, I don't know what you do for a living but you may have missed your calling.

[bigperm13]

Putting Baldwin and Keels as future Duke draftees is looking less and less by the day. And with his close friend Jalen Johnson opting out, by the hour with Baldwin. The suit of armor took some blows today and so did the future of Duke basketball possibly.

[Namtilal]

Putting Baldwin and Keels as future Duke draftees is looking less and less by the day. And with his close friend Jalen Johnson opting out, by the hour with Baldwin. The suit of armor took some blows today and so did the future of Duke basketball possibly.

Yes, the game has passed by Coach K, and there is no way he can recruit and be Olympic coach at the same time.

That was just a joke. If there is anything to learn from this situation, it is that getting elite talent does not mean instant success. The future of Duke basketball is strong. If Jalen's experience keeps Baldwin away (which is unknown at this point), it is possible that he wouldn't fit in at Duke and will fit in better elsewhere. Neither of us know if that is true. It is possible that the coaching staff gave Jalen wet willies nonstop and that is why he left, as well -- if I was Baldwin, I would not subject myself to that treatment.

[Namtilal]

NBA Draft room has Hurt at #95 and says the big concern with him is who he guards at the NBA level.

My gut tells me that Hurt will be a situational player in the pros, and that the right team will find a way to leverage his strengths while protecting him on defense for limited stretches. He can be very good in that role, but it is not a role that is hugely in demand come draft day.

[tommy]

I can't imagine Jalen will be 6 unless there is an adjustment by him on buying in to contributing to a team. Talented and very fluid, he can improve his shooting if he works hard and I don't know if he does or doesn't work hard. His comps could be Kyle Anderson and Ben Simmons and both of those guys do the little things as well for their teams. In addition to size and passing, Kyle has learned to shoot and Simmons has become a plus defensive player. I hope he has a turnaround but seems like most scouts will grade him down for not responding to K so far. If he leaves before the season is over he will eliminate a lot of teams from drafting him. Which means the teams that consider themselves behavior changers should get him at a lower position in the draft.

I have loved watching Kyle Anderson play since I saw him a bunch in high school and then in college. The guy just has a brain that is next level in terms of seeing the floor and understanding how to get where he needs to get to to make plays for himself and others. But Slo Mo is one of the worst run/jump athletes I have ever seen in high level basketball. It's a tribute to his skill level that even being that stuck-in-the-mud that he STILL is an effective professional basketball player, but Jalen is in another world entirely in terms of run/jump.

The guys are like opposites. Kyle, above the neck, is all-world. Physically, not so much. Jalen is the reverse.

[Steven43]

My gut tells me that Hurt will be a situational player in the pros, and that the right team will find a way to leverage his strengths while protecting him on defense for limited stretches. He can be very good in that role, but it is not a role that is hugely in demand come draft day.

Are you saying Hurt is a 3-and-no-D guy at the NBA level? Who are his comps?

[Namtilal]

Are you saying Hurt is a 3-and-no-D guy at the NBA level? Who are his comps?

I guess Carmelo Anthony, minus the midrange game and the inside scoring and the passing...

I really like Hurt and enjoy watching him. I am just trying to figure out how he is drafted. I think he goes overseas and works on his weaknesses, then comes and finds a role on a deep team. I am not sure that leaving after this year is in his best interests, unless he has an iron-clad guarantee.

[Kedsy]

Are you saying Hurt is a 3-and-no-D guy at the NBA level? Who are his comps?

Kyle Korver?

[CDu]

Kyle Korver?

I was thinking more Steve Novak. Korver is more athletic and more dynamic at running off screens and shooting quickly on the move. Hurt is basically set shooter or shooter out of the post.

Hurt has a little more skill to his shooting than Novak, but is probably closer to Novak than Korver in terms of his skill set.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I was thinking more Steve Novak. Korver is more athletic and more dynamic at running off screens and shooting quickly on the move. Hurt is basically set shooter or shooter out of the post.

Hurt has a little more skill to his shooting than Novak, but is probably closer to Novak than Korver in terms of his skill set.

Novak is a great comp, and Hurt should try to emulate his career (11 years in the league). Hurt does have good size (like Novak), but he'll still need to bulk up for the NBA.

[JasonEvans]

I was thinking more Steve Novak. Korver is more athletic and more dynamic at running off screens and shooting quickly on the move. Hurt is basically set shooter or shooter out of the post.

Hurt has a little more skill to his shooting than Novak, but is probably closer to Novak than Korver in terms of his skill set.

Novak is a really great comp. How about Mike Miller? Again, more mobile and more of a wing than Hurt. Hmmmm. If Hurt added some weight and strength -- something not at all impossible to imagine for a guy his age -- he could become a Mike Muscala. Anyone remember Matt Bullard? He played on some of those good Houston teams in the early 90s as a big who basically just drifted outside and bombed 3s when he was left open.

-Jason "The fact that there are so few comps sorta tells you something about Hurt's NBA prospects" Evans

[throatybeard]

-Jason "The fact that there are so few comps sorta tells you something about Hurt's NBA prospects" Evans

It also tells me that comparing basketball players to other basketball players is executed in a highly silly fashion over 90% of the time. To sets of data, sure, but even then, amateur basketball players haven't really amassed meaningful sets of data by and large. All this "Player A is a lot like Player B I've already heard of" on message boards is, in the main, hot air.

[CDu]

Novak is a really great comp. How about Mike Miller? Again, more mobile and more of a wing than Hurt. Hmmmm. If Hurt added some weight and strength -- something not at all impossible to imagine for a guy his age -- he could become a Mike Muscala. Anyone remember Matt Bullard? He played on some of those good Houston teams in the early 90s as a big who basically just drifted outside and bombed 3s when he was left open.

-Jason "The fact that there are so few comps sorta tells you something about Hurt's NBA prospects" Evans

Miller was a really good athlete and better off the dribble than Hurt. Bullard is another solid comp. But yeah, in terms of impact NBA careers, it's been a long time since a guy like Hurt has been effective. A taller but even slower version of Peja Stojakovic is probably the best hope for Hurt if he can really improve his shooting consistency. But realistically, guys with that limited athleticism don't tend to make it as more than fringe player/specialist types.

[tommy]

And the tradition of offering only white players as comps for white players continues. Sorry pet peeve of mine. I have been guilty of it myself too, but am trying to be conscious of it and hoping others try as well.

I see Channing Frye as a reasonable comp for Hurt. Not athletic, not much on the defensive end, but a big guy who can knock down outside jumpshots consistently.

Going back further, guys like Tracy Murray and Chuck Person and maybe Donyell Marshall come to mind. Guys with pretty good size who would prefer to shoot face-up jumpshots rather than mix it up inside, did their best work as catch-and-shoot rather than off the dribble jumpshooters, and weren't very interested in defense.

[lotusland]

And the tradition of offering only white players as comps for white players continues. Sorry pet peeve of mine. I have been guilty of it myself too, but am trying to be conscious of it and hoping others try as well.

I see Channing Frye as a reasonable comp for Hurt. Not athletic, not much on the defensive end, but a big guy who can knock down outside jumpshots consistently.

Going back further, guys like Tracy Murray and Chuck Person and maybe Donyell Marshall come to mind. Guys with pretty good size who would prefer to shoot face-up jumpshots rather than mix it up inside, did their best work as catch-and-shoot rather than off the dribble jumpshooters, and weren't very interested in defense.

Kiki Vandeweghe?

[CDu]

And the tradition of offering only white players as comps for white players continues. Sorry pet peeve of mine. I have been guilty of it myself too, but am trying to be conscious of it and hoping others try as well.

I see Channing Frye as a reasonable comp for Hurt. Not athletic, not much on the defensive end, but a big guy who can knock down outside jumpshots consistently.

Going back further, guys like Tracy Murray and Chuck Person and maybe Donyell Marshall come to mind. Guys with pretty good size who would prefer to shoot face-up jumpshots rather than mix it up inside, did their best work as catch-and-shoot rather than off the dribble jumpshooters, and weren't very interested in defense.

I mean, we don’t have to go out of our way to compare him to someone NOT of the same race either.

Frye was a long-armed 7-footer where Hurt is a short-armed 6’9” guy, so not really a good comp. Person was much more versatile both as a scorer and as a passer, so not really a comp. Murray comes closest of those 3.

[tommy]

I mean, we don’t have to go out of our way to compare him to someone NOT of the same race either.

Frye was a long-armed 7-footer where Hurt is a short-armed 6’9” guy, so not really a good comp. Person was much more versatile both as a scorer and as a passer, so not really a comp. Murray comes closest of those 3.

You're right. We don't. I just think it's an unconscious bias thing that many people -- not saying you or anyone here in particular -- have.

Frye having longer arms and being a few inches taller isn't quite as relevant for me in making a comp. He and Hurt are/were both stretch guys whose outside shooting is/was by far their best skill, and neither played/plays with much physicality. Similar styles of player IMO. Yeah I thought Person was the least like Hurt of the 3, but he averaged less than 3 apg for his career. My memory could certainly be faulty, but don't recall him being much of a passer. He got it and shot it. And usually made it.

[throatybeard]

You're right. We don't. I just think it's an unconscious bias thing that many people -- not saying you or anyone here in particular -- have.

I doubt it's unconscious. People know they're doing it and don't care.

[kAzE]

I think the best comp for Matthew Hurt if he works hard on his game is Ryan Anderson, the prototype below average athlete stretch forward who played 12 seasons in the league, and was rostered as recently as last season. Coincidentally, Anderson played 2 years of college at Cal-Berkely, which seems the likely path for Matthew as well.