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  1. #41
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I mean, if he stays healthy, he's going to have a long NBA career as a sweet-shooting PF/SF on second units. I certainly think he plays more than Kyle's 6 seasons in the NBA. One other thing is that Matt's post game is intriguing against opponents that switch. If, after a switch, he takes an opposing second-unit guard down to the post, his NBA teammates likely will provide better entry passes than his Duke teammates.

    In general, college basketball fans are too harsh grading their players' NBA prospects (perhaps because of the bias of wanting them to stay). Don't compare guys like Steward and Hurt to NBA superstars or even to starters. Look at the guys who are making a living on NBA second-units, and/or look at the deep bench, 3rd-string, out-of-the-rotation guys if necessary as well.
    I fully agree with you... I think Matt has a solid NBA career ahead of him. I'm thinking specifically about his draft stock. Once he's in the league I think everything you've said will be apparent, though it might not be evaluating him currently, which is why I imagine most of us agree he's at best a second rounder at the moment.
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  2. #42
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    Just thought it was worth noting that ESPN currently has the following Dukies ranked among the top 100 prospects currently in college:

    Jalen Johnson #6
    Matthew Hurt #41
    DJ Steward #72

    This would lend credence to the notion that JJ and Hurt are the only guys likely to leave after this season... and that it is far from a no-brainer decision for Hurt.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Just thought it was worth noting that ESPN currently has the following Dukies ranked among the top 100 prospects currently in college:

    Jalen Johnson #6
    Matthew Hurt #41
    DJ Steward #72

    This would lend credence to the notion that JJ and Hurt are the only guys likely to leave after this season... and that it is far from a no-brainer decision for Hurt.
    Hurt has the potential to be an ACC player of the year at some point. He will probably not hurt his draft stock- perhaps even help it if he sticks around.

  4. #44
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    Yep

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Just thought it was worth noting that ESPN currently has the following Dukies ranked among the top 100 prospects currently in college:

    Jalen Johnson #6
    Matthew Hurt #41
    DJ Steward #72

    This would lend credence to the notion that JJ and Hurt are the only guys likely to leave after this season... and that it is far from a no-brainer decision for Hurt.
    Of course, this ranking doesn't account for foreign players not in a U.S. college, so their actual draft projection would be lower.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Of course, this ranking doesn't account for foreign players not in a U.S. college, so their actual draft projection would be lower.
    Nah, it's actually just the top 100. For example, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, who went with the G-League, are ranked 3rd and 5th respectively, and Usman Garuba, a Spanish forward is ranked 17th. However, these rankings haven't been updated for awhile (the current list is over 2 weeks old). I would imagine Hurt has helped himself a bit lately with his hot shooting and Steward may have dropped a bit.

  6. #46
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    So, one thing I wonder a little bit is whether the coming NIL changes, which appear to be only months away, could impact some player's decisions about the NBA.

    Now, if you are going to be a first round draft pick, then you turn pro... but if you look more like a second rounder who might be signing a 2-way contract then I suspect a solid argument can be made that you would actually earn very comparable money by staying in school, especially if you are playing for a program with a large social media following and big alumni base that would look favorably upon your decision to stick around.

    I mean, if your name were -- for example -- Hatthew Murt and it looked like you could be a big star on a national title contending team by coming back to school versus being a mid-2nd rounder if you turned pro, there could be a real financial incentive to staying in school... right?
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, one thing I wonder a little bit is whether the coming NIL changes, which appear to be only months away, could impact some player's decisions about the NBA.

    Now, if you are going to be a first round draft pick, then you turn pro... but if you look more like a second rounder who might be signing a 2-way contract then I suspect a solid argument can be made that you would actually earn very comparable money by staying in school, especially if you are playing for a program with a large social media following and big alumni base that would look favorably upon your decision to stick around.

    I mean, if your name were -- for example -- Hatthew Murt and it looked like you could be a big star on a national title contending team by coming back to school versus being a mid-2nd rounder if you turned pro, there could be a real financial incentive to staying in school... right?
    I wonder how much a guy like Hurt could really make? Obviously for a guy like Zion the ceiling is the roof, but what kind of value can a guy like Hurt get?

  8. #48
    Kind of OT but lately there's been so much more G League on the tube and it's been interesting how bad most of the play has been.
    Desperate programming times, I guess.
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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I wonder how much a guy like Hurt could really make? Obviously for a guy like Zion the ceiling is the roof, but what kind of value can a guy like Hurt get?
    Well, I was talking about the fictional player Hatthew Murt. And to really capitalize on the new opportunities, a player would need to have a strong social media profile. For a high-flying dunker that is easier than for a guy who has more subtle skills. But, I am hoping a savvy school -- let's call it Bluke, home of the Due Devils -- will proactively assist players in seeking out endorsement opportunities and the such.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Well, I was talking about the fictional player Hatthew Murt. And to really capitalize on the new opportunities, a player would need to have a strong social media profile. For a high-flying dunker that is easier than for a guy who has more subtle skills. But, I am hoping a savvy school -- let's call it Bluke, home of the Due Devils -- will proactively assist players in seeking out endorsement opportunities and the such.
    Hypothetically, how much does it matter if our hypothetical Mr. Murt is a shy sort of person, with a low social-media profile and little apparent interest in being a public figure?

    Hypothetically speaking, of course.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Hypothetically, how much does it matter if our hypothetical Mr. Murt is a shy sort of person, with a low social-media profile and little apparent interest in being a public figure?

    Hypothetically speaking, of course.
    I'm gonna need ya'll to stop ruining my fantasies, mmmmkay?
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  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, one thing I wonder a little bit is whether the coming NIL changes, which appear to be only months away, could impact some player's decisions about the NBA.

    Now, if you are going to be a first round draft pick, then you turn pro... but if you look more like a second rounder who might be signing a 2-way contract then I suspect a solid argument can be made that you would actually earn very comparable money by staying in school, especially if you are playing for a program with a large social media following and big alumni base that would look favorably upon your decision to stick around.

    I mean, if your name were -- for example -- Hatthew Murt and it looked like you could be a big star on a national title contending team by coming back to school versus being a mid-2nd rounder if you turned pro, there could be a real financial incentive to staying in school... right?
    It's possible, but again remember the salary structure of the NBA. The real money isn't in the first contract, it's in subsequent contracts. So even if you could make comparable money by staying in school (which seems questionable in a lot of cases), you may lose out in longer-term revenue.

    But, I agree that there is some uncertainty of how the rule changes will affect draft entry.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It's possible, but again remember the salary structure of the NBA. The real money isn't in the first contract, it's in subsequent contracts. So even if you could make comparable money by staying in school (which seems questionable in a lot of cases), you may lose out in longer-term revenue.

    But, I agree that there is some uncertainty of how the rule changes will affect draft entry.
    Agreed, but the vast majority of 2-way player/mid-2nd round kinda picks are not guys who will ever sign a big contract. They will be fortunate to land the full NBA minimum for a few years. I mean, for every Gary Trent there is Melvin Frazier (taken 2 spots ahead of Gary in 2018 and played in 29 career games, not currently on a NBA roster). Heck, look no further than Frank Jackson who is struggling to stay in the league and will likely earn less this year than what a top tier college player will be able to make once the NCAA allows these players to do endorsements and other deals. And don't even get me started on Trevon Duval.

    -Jason "of course, the problem is that every kid thinks he is the next Trent/Boozer/Arenas** and not the next Frazier/Duval/Jackson" Evans

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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Just thought it was worth noting that ESPN currently has the following Dukies ranked among the top 100 prospects currently in college:

    Jalen Johnson #6
    Matthew Hurt #41
    DJ Steward #72

    This would lend credence to the notion that JJ and Hurt are the only guys likely to leave after this season... and that it is far from a no-brainer decision for Hurt.
    I can't imagine Jalen will be 6 unless there is an adjustment by him on buying in to contributing to a team. Talented and very fluid, he can improve his shooting if he works hard and I don't know if he does or doesn't work hard. His comps could be Kyle Anderson and Ben Simmons and both of those guys do the little things as well for their teams. In addition to size and passing, Kyle has learned to shoot and Simmons has become a plus defensive player. I hope he has a turnaround but seems like most scouts will grade him down for not responding to K so far. If he leaves before the season is over he will eliminate a lot of teams from drafting him. Which means the teams that consider themselves behavior changers should get him at a lower position in the draft.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukejim1 View Post
    I can't imagine Jalen will be 6 unless there is an adjustment by him on buying in to contributing to a team. Talented and very fluid, he can improve his shooting if he works hard and I don't know if he does or doesn't work hard. His comps could be Kyle Anderson and Ben Simmons and both of those guys do the little things as well for their teams. In addition to size and passing, Kyle has learned to shoot and Simmons has become a plus defensive player. I hope he has a turnaround but seems like most scouts will grade him down for not responding to K so far. If he leaves before the season is over he will eliminate a lot of teams from drafting him. Which means the teams that consider themselves behavior changers should get him at a lower position in the draft.
    Is this a possibility?

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukejim1 View Post
    I can't imagine Jalen will be 6 unless there is an adjustment by him on buying in to contributing to a team. Talented and very fluid, he can improve his shooting if he works hard and I don't know if he does or doesn't work hard. His comps could be Kyle Anderson and Ben Simmons and both of those guys do the little things as well for their teams. In addition to size and passing, Kyle has learned to shoot and Simmons has become a plus defensive player. I hope he has a turnaround but seems like most scouts will grade him down for not responding to K so far. If he leaves before the season is over he will eliminate a lot of teams from drafting him. Which means the teams that consider themselves behavior changers should get him at a lower position in the draft.
    The bold is hard for me to imagine since the end of the season could be just 6 games from now or 18 days. (I am assuming, no ACC tournament due to Covid, no NCAA due to record and no NIT due to indifference.)

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I wonder how much a guy like Hurt could really make? Obviously for a guy like Zion the ceiling is the roof, but what kind of value can a guy like Hurt get?
    You also have to compare it to what sort of endorsements to the player would get if he actually left, on top of his NBA salary. If a players is weighing the benefits of (just to throw out numbers here) a $200k G league contract versus a $100k endorsement if he returned to school, but turning pro also allowed him to sign a $50k endorsement, then the comparison is really $250k versus $100k. Again, these are all just hypothetical numbers that I made up and I don't think anyone knows what the real numbers will be until it actually happens.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    Nah, it's actually just the top 100. For example, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, who went with the G-League, are ranked 3rd and 5th respectively, and Usman Garuba, a Spanish forward is ranked 17th. However, these rankings haven't been updated for awhile (the current list is over 2 weeks old). I would imagine Hurt has helped himself a bit lately with his hot shooting and Steward may have dropped a bit.
    Jalen Johnson is at #11 with the latest NBA Draftroom. https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2021-nba-mock-draft/
    I have no idea if this is a decent mock draft site but the 10-15 range seems more likely to me than #6.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by wsb3 View Post
    Jalen Johnson is at #11 with the latest NBA Draftroom. https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2021-nba-mock-draft/
    I have no idea if this is a decent mock draft site but the 10-15 range seems more likely to me than #6.
    NBA Draft room has Hurt at #95 and says the big concern with him is who he guards at the NBA level.

    Meanwhile, Draftroom seems to expect the entire Duke team to turn pro in 2022. It has Paolo Banchero at #3 and Patrick Baldwin at #4. AJ Griffin checks in at #8 in 2022. None of that is a surprise for top 10 high schoolers.

    Draftroom then has DJ Steward at #19 in '22, again, not a big surprise. But, my eyebrows raised a bit when I saw Trevor Keels checking in at #24 in their 2022 mock. And then I reached the second round of the 2022 draft... might as well be called the Blue Devil Invitational. Roach at #57, Mark Williams at #59, Brakefield at #61, and Wendell Moore at #77.

    And just so he does not feel left out, Henry Coleman shows up in the 2023 mock at #43.

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  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by wsb3 View Post
    Jalen Johnson is at #11 with the latest NBA Draftroom. https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2021-nba-mock-draft/
    I have no idea if this is a decent mock draft site but the 10-15 range seems more likely to me than #6.
    Good luck to him. I obviously don't know him but assume he is a good kid.

    He has been a major disappointment for Duke thus far. He could turn it around and I hope he does. I know the NBA drafts on potential and they may well see that potential which has not been close to being realized in his brief Duke stay

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