Early 2021 Draft Chatter

[scottdude8]

I was gonna post something about Dickinson and Williams and this class the other day but couldn't get to it during the weekend, and I also didn't want to be perceived as being negative on Mark Williams, which I'm not. He may turn out to be a fine player for Duke and I think there's a decent chance he does. Kid has shown some flashes in limited opportunities.

But I looked back on the 2020 recruiting thread, and also the rankings of the experts, and lots of folks really misjudged these guys. Dickinson was ranked 37 in the RSCI and Williams 25, which many would say is a significant gap. On these boards there was a lot of chatter about how it would be nice to get Dickinson, but he's basically similar in ability to Williams albeit with a different style of game, no big deal if we don't get him, maybe Dickinson could back up Williams, but essentially that he's the project and Williams was seeming to be more ready to contribute right away. Obviously that is not the case. Dickinson is averaging like 17 and 9 and shooting over 70% for an undefeated Michigan team that is knocking on the door of the Top 10. Dude was obviously way more ready to excel at the college level than was Mark Williams, and few people seemed to recognize that.

Interesting too to look back in the thread at all the guys we were supposedly recruiting and supposedly prioritizing and where they ended up, all the guys we were "in great shape for" that we didn't get, all the guys "leaning strongly" to us that we didn't get, and how the list of targets shifted over time. Also interesting to see the lists from RSCI, from 247, etc. and compare to how the players actually look at the college level thus far. 247 had Jalen Suggs as #11 (#7 RSCI.) Dude is an NBA point guard right now, and will go top 5 in the draft, with a chance to go #1 depending on who has the pick. BJ Boston was #4 in the RSCI. Umm he has pretty much been a bust at UK so far. (Duke was "in very strong position" with him . . . ). Plenty of others, including the UNC guys with Kessler at 18 and Love at 13 are performing nowhere near those levels. But along with Suggs, the guy who was most underrated was Dickinson. If they could do it over again, the services would almost certainly have him in the top 10, and Michigan contacts that I have are expressing concern that he may end up being a one-year player in Ann Arbor.

There's been some interesting discussion in Michigan local media and fansites about how "wrong" the rankings seem to have gotten Dickinson given his performance (he had another monster night yesterday as Michigan demolished a ranked Northwestern squad). The most interesting thing that stood out to me was one take that essentially said that modern recruiting rankings tend to more heavily weigh a players pro prospects rather than their impact at the college level. I'm not sure how true that actually is, but it seems to make sense with Dickinson, a guy who is arguably one of the Top 10 freshmen in college basketball right now, but likely wouldn't be a first round pick in next year's draft given the state of the modern NBA. It's certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few years as the NBA game continues to evolve as does whom Duke targets in recruiting.

FWIW, I'm not overly worried about Dickinson leaving after this year. If Vernon Carey can't make it into the first round, and guys like Luka Garza and whatever solid but unspectacular 7 footer Wisconsin has in a given year end up being four year players, I think Dickinson would be a second rounder at best right now. That said, you never know what could happen if he keeps playing like he is, and it wouldn't surprise me if he at least tested the waters. But to be a first rounder, he has things to improve: he can be a little left-hand dominant, he needs to extend his shooting range, and while he's been a solid defender he isn't an NBA-level rim protector since he isn't a springy athlete. Another year or two with Juwan Howard could go a long way for a guy like him. That said, we were all shocked when Udoka Azubuike snuck his way into the first round this year, so who knows.

[ChillinDuke]

I continue to think there is no better place to go to kill your NBA draft stock than the North Carolina basketball program. In the SI Big Board referenced at the beginning of this thread, Day’Ron Sharpe is #14 and Caleb Love is #15.

NBADraft.net currently has Love at #25 and has Sharpe in the 2nd round at #36... in the 2022 NBA Draft. Not even expected to be in this year's draft.

Love played all of 15 minutes today for UNC, less than Leaky Black (31), Kerwin Walton (27), RJ Davis (23), and the same as Andrew Platek. None of those guys will ever be on the NBA radar. Sharpe had a good game, but it was arguably his first game of the year in which he looked at all like a NBA prospect.

Meanwhile Walker Kessler played 5 minutes in this game. In case folks have forgotten, Kessler was a higher rated recruit than Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward. He is currently averaging 3.2 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. Kessler, who had a reputation as a good outside shooter and was seen as a dangerous stretch 4, similar to Matthew Hurt, has not hit a single 3 on the season and is knocking down less than 50% of his free throws.

It is like these kids arrive in Chapel Hill and the talent gets sucked from their bodies.

I continue to believe it's because Roy Williams is a system coach. What would a player like Kessler be allowed to do on a Duke team that runs motion and sets up players to play to their strengths? Instead, he's on a UNC team that (a) plays two bigs primarily as rim runners on primary and secondary breaks and (2) historically makes young players (and especially bigs) ride the pine early in their career as they learn the system. I admit that Roy has had a lot of success. It's just baffling that he has had as much success as he has.

Kessler may very well turn out to be an overrated recruit. And he may well turn out to have an excellent career. But I have very little doubt that his performance to this point in his young career would be better at Duke than at UNC. And maybe that's not saying much given the circumstances. But maybe it is.

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

Roy continues to do a great job of killing the draft stock of UNC players.

Day'ron Sharp looked like he was ready to bust out a few games ago. He played 29 minutes against Notre Dame, scoring 25 points and grabbing 10 boards. He followed that up by playing 27 minutes against Miami, with 12 points and 16 rebounds. Dude was on his way to maybe being a lottery pick.

But Roy will not have any of that! Next game against Syracuse, Sharp saw his minutes almost cut in half as he only played 15 mins leading to 8 points and 4 rebounds. And then today against FSU it was just 22 minutes as Sharp scored 6 points and grabbed 6 boards. Draft stock successfully squashed!

Meanwhile, top 15 recruit Walker Kessler saw his most minutes played in any game this calendar year... he actually appeared in 8 minutes of this game. He did not attempt a shot and grabbed all of 1 rebound.

Oh, and don't forget future NBA point guard Caleb Love -- he dished out exactly zero assists. Love did have far and away his best game from the perimeter, hitting 3-6 threes... his 3point FG% is now almost up to 20% on the season. Mendozza line, here we come!

-Jason "Heels looked good..." Evans

[budwom]

^ if the season continues, this could be one of the less illustrious Duke-unc matchups in memory, though that hardly means it won't be an exciting game.

[wsb3]

^ if the season continues, this could be one of the less illustrious Duke-unc matchups in memory, though that hardly means it won't be an exciting game.

Could well be the year the streak of at least one team being ranked ends...

[Duke79UNLV77]

The 1st 6 projected picks in the Sports Illustrated mock draft are all 1 year out of high school, but none of them are playing at traditional power schools. Last year, the highest draft pick from a traditional power school was Cole Anthony at 15.

I think we're seeing an era when star players see more viable choices than they did in the past. The NBA will find them, and most colleges have most of their games on TV if that is a concern. Meanwhile, it seems like players at power programs (except unc) feel they need to go pro early even to be a 2nd round pick or an undrafted free agent with some team's interest or else they are somehow failing or falling behind.

That makes the needle tougher to thread. That said, we could have at least 2 high level elite NBA prospects and some returning talent next year.

[UrinalCake]

What still boggles my mind about Kessler is that when he chose UNC over Duke, he cited playing time as a reason. UNC has like eight post players while we have none that are contributing anything. And I get that he wanted to play more on the perimeter and thought that Roy’s two-big lineup would allow him to have another big on the floor with him, but playing the 5 at Duke would give him more perimeter opportunities than playing the 4 at UNC.

[lotusland]

I read more about the NBA than I actually watch it but tell me how DJ Steward is an NBA prospect? He seems like a potential college stud but not NBA material at all to me. He’s certainly athletic enough but he’s undersized even for a lead guard but doesn’t have PG skills and doesn’t have anywhere near NBA range on his shot. I love his craftiness and his motor but I don’t see him getting to the rim in the pros. Why would a NBA team draft Steward in the 1st round?

[Troublemaker]

I read more about the NBA than I actually watch it but tell me how DJ Steward is an NBA prospect? He seems like a potential college stud but not NBA material at all to me. He’s certainly athletic enough but he’s undersized even for a lead guard but doesn’t have PG skills and doesn’t have anywhere near NBA range on his shot. I love his craftiness and his motor but I don’t see him getting to the rim in the pros. Why would a NBA team draft Steward in the 1st round?

Unless he starts shooting the way he's capable of from three, he'll probably return next year. But, long-term, he's a backup NBA PG (a scoring PG) that will get drafted in the 20 to 40 range. I have no doubt he's an NBA player. He's wiry strong for his size and is surprisingly competitive on the boards, has length, has pretty good quickness, has the second-highest rim FG% on the team behind Jalen (per hoop-math), and he gets steals and even some blocked shots, keeping with the theme that he plays bigger than his size. All of that, and his biggest asset -- his shooting -- hasn't consistently been displayed yet.

[JasonEvans]

So, I know NBADraft.net ain't the best measurement of current draft stock, but it ain't completely worthless either. Anyway, they have something truly curious in their latest update.

DJ Steward -- not only do they not have him among the 2021 prospects, they don't even list him as a 2022 draft prospect. Either they think he will be at Duke for 3+ years or they expect him to declare and go undrafted.
Matthew Hurt -- same with Hurt... nowhere to be found in 2021 or 2022.

And are you ready for the crazy one?

Jalen Johnson - NBADraft.net expects him to return to Duke for his soph campaign. They don't list him in 2021, putting him in the 2022 class (and toward the back half of that draft as well). They also have Banchero and Griffin (and Baldwin) going in the 2022 lottery.

Probably bonkers. I will be somewhat shocked if Johnson does not leave after one season and only slightly less shocked if Hurt does not follow... but interesting that at least one draft tracker does not expect that to happen.

--Jason "I'm frankly unsure if Johnson and Hurt would both start if they both came back... depending on whether Baldwin comes to Duke" Evans

[scottdude8]

So, I know NBADraft.net ain't the best measurement of current draft stock, but it ain't completely worthless either. Anyway, they have something truly curious in their latest update.

DJ Steward -- not only do they not have him among the 2021 prospects, they don't even list him as a 2022 draft prospect. Either they think he will be at Duke for 3+ years or they expect him to declare and go undrafted.
Matthew Hurt -- same with Hurt... nowhere to be found in 2021 or 2022.

And are you ready for the crazy one?

Jalen Johnson - NBADraft.net expects him to return to Duke for his soph campaign. They don't list him in 2021, putting him in the 2022 class (and toward the back half of that draft as well). They also have Banchero and Griffin (and Baldwin) going in the 2022 lottery.

Probably bonkers. I will be somewhat shocked if Johnson does not leave after one season and only slightly less shocked if Hurt does not follow... but interesting that at least one draft tracker does not expect that to happen.

--Jason "I'm frankly unsure if Johnson and Hurt would both start if they both came back... depending on whether Baldwin comes to Duke" Evans

Here's a crazy thought that's been rolling around my head lately, and bears discussion if the tea leaves are indicating Hurt will return to Duke... what if he's Kyle Singler a decade years later? Remember Kyle started his career as a 3/4, was told to bulk up before his sophomore season to play more as a traditional big, and then reversed course as a junior to become a more traditional 3 man.

Now, I know there are big differences between the two players, namely Kyle was much quicker than Matt. But let's hypothetically say that Matt continues playing well but his draft stock isn't going anywhere, and we have major talent coming into the post next year. Would K turn to him and say, "Look, the league obviously doesn't view you as a stretch big, so let's see if we can turn you into a big wing with a top-tier 3 point shot"? That could be an interesting experiment to say the least.

[CDu]

Here's a crazy thought that's been rolling around my head lately, and bears discussion if the tea leaves are indicating Hurt will return to Duke... what if he's Kyle Singler a decade years later? Remember Kyle started his career as a 3/4, was told to bulk up before his sophomore season to play more as a traditional big, and then reversed course as a junior to become a more traditional 3 man.

Now, I know there are big differences between the two players, namely Kyle was much quicker than Matt. But let's hypothetically say that Matt continues playing well but his draft stock isn't going anywhere, and we have major talent coming into the post next year. Would K turn to him and say, "Look, the league obviously doesn't view you as a stretch big, so let's see if we can turn you into a big wing with a top-tier 3 point shot"? That could be an interesting experiment to say the least.

No. As you have noted, Singler was WAY quicker than Hurt, and was known for his ballhandling and ability to attack off the dribble. Hurt was more of a Ryan Kelly type player just with better shooting touch. I think it would be a disaster to play Hurt as a 3. He's just not nearly quick enough to do it.

As a general rule, it's easier for players to "play up" in college than it is to "play down." I think Hurt's future at the college level is as a stretch 5, not as a 3. It's also his only realistic path to the NBA, in my opinion. I don't think he'll ever be quick enough to defend on the perimeter in the NBA. But if he adds bulk and maintains his shooting touch he could be a dangerous below-the-rim stretch 5 offensively.

[CDu]

So, I know NBADraft.net ain't the best measurement of current draft stock, but it ain't completely worthless either. Anyway, they have something truly curious in their latest update.

DJ Steward -- not only do they not have him among the 2021 prospects, they don't even list him as a 2022 draft prospect. Either they think he will be at Duke for 3+ years or they expect him to declare and go undrafted.
Matthew Hurt -- same with Hurt... nowhere to be found in 2021 or 2022.

And are you ready for the crazy one?

Jalen Johnson - NBADraft.net expects him to return to Duke for his soph campaign. They don't list him in 2021, putting him in the 2022 class (and toward the back half of that draft as well). They also have Banchero and Griffin (and Baldwin) going in the 2022 lottery.

Probably bonkers. I will be somewhat shocked if Johnson does not leave after one season and only slightly less shocked if Hurt does not follow... but interesting that at least one draft tracker does not expect that to happen.

--Jason "I'm frankly unsure if Johnson and Hurt would both start if they both came back... depending on whether Baldwin comes to Duke" Evans

Actually, I think NBADraft.net IS pretty worthless - at least right now. They will get better closer to the actual draft, but right now they just have no idea what they are doing. There just aren't many sites that are tuned in enough at this early stage outside of the top-5 picks or so, and NBADraft.net isn't one of them.

Johnson will go pro this year, and will no doubt be a first rounder.

I think Hurt will find his way into the second round either this year or next (more likely this year). I don't see him as a first rounder this year given the physical limitations, but you never know - it just takes one team to be intrigued by the shooting touch in the back half of the first round. More than likely he'd be a second rounder whenever he goes. If Hurt was to return next, he and Banchero would be the 4/5 and Griffin the 3. It would probably push Moore to the bench. And I would imagine Hurt staying would eliminate us from getting Baldwin.

Barring a meteoric finish this year, Steward wouldn't be drafted this year. His draft stock next year (or beyond) would depend upon his progression, but I'd imagine as he shows more consistency as a ballhandler and shooter his draft stock will improve some.

[Jaks19]

I would agree that Hurt and Johnson will leave for the NBA, but if either did stay and Duke did get a commitment from Baldwin, I'm not sure how that would play out. Banchero will easily start as one of the bigs which would mean Hurt and/or Johnson and Baldwin would complete for time at the 4. Baldwin and Johnson could also slide to the 3 where then they would complete with Griffin. A lot of personalities to appease and in my opinion, not sure what team chemistry might be like.

[CDu]

I would agree that Hurt and Johnson will leave for the NBA, but if either did stay and Duke did get a commitment from Baldwin, I'm not sure how that would play out. Banchero will easily start as one of the bigs which would mean Hurt and/or Johnson and Baldwin would complete for time at the 4. Baldwin and Johnson could also slide to the 3 where then they would complete with Griffin. A lot of personalities to appease and in my opinion, not sure what team chemistry might be like.

I think it's a moot point. If either Hurt or Johnson stays, Baldwin likely wouldn't come. I'd imagine Baldwin waits until those guys make a decision, or else he simply chooses to go elsewhere anyway.

I'd expect Johnson to go pro regardless. And I would lean towards Hurt going as well. But of the two, Hurt seems like the more likely to return (even though he's playing at first-team All-ACC level.

Basically, I think we'll have at most one of Johnson/Hurt/Baldwin next year, and that one would be our PF. If we don't have any of those 3, then Griffin and Moore probably have a dual SF/PF role alongside Banchero.

[Jaks19]

I can see that. But if Duke misses on Baldwin and both Hurt and Johnson leave, then Duke needs to find some player(s) to play as bigs unless Williams, Coleman and Breakfield all take big jumps.

[CDu]

I can see that. But if Duke misses on Baldwin and both Hurt and Johnson leave, then Duke needs to find some player(s) to play as bigs unless Williams, Coleman and Breakfield all take big jumps.

I think the chances of that scenario happening are probably pretty low. But in that scenario I'd expect Williams/Brakefield/Coleman to take steps forward and for one or two of them to become key reserves. But I think we'd likely start with Griffin and Moore at the wing/forward spots and play 2 guards along with Banchero.

Obviously the team would be better if one of Hurt or Baldwin (I'm going to go ahead and assume Johnson declares) is the starting 4. But I think we'd be just fine even in the scenario in which we don't have a typical starting 4.

[JasonEvans]

I think the chances of that scenario happening are probably pretty low. But in that scenario I'd expect Williams/Brakefield/Coleman to take steps forward and for one or two of them to become key reserves. But I think we'd likely start with Griffin and Moore at the wing/forward spots and play 2 guards along with Banchero.

Obviously the team would be better if one of Hurt or Baldwin (I'm going to go ahead and assume Johnson declares) is the starting 4. But I think we'd be just fine even in the scenario in which we don't have a typical starting 4.

What CDu said... I think K would happily start a guy some might call a "wing" at PF. He has done it before and will do it again. Going smaller and faster with better shooting is the current wave in the NBA and in college. Having a 6-6 PF who does not fit the traditional measure of a "big" is not at all unusual in basketball for any team except UNC.

[scottdude8]

No. As you have noted, Singler was WAY quicker than Hurt, and was known for his ballhandling and ability to attack off the dribble. Hurt was more of a Ryan Kelly type player just with better shooting touch. I think it would be a disaster to play Hurt as a 3. He's just not nearly quick enough to do it.

As a general rule, it's easier for players to "play up" in college than it is to "play down." I think Hurt's future at the college level is as a stretch 5, not as a 3. It's also his only realistic path to the NBA, in my opinion. I don't think he'll ever be quick enough to defend on the perimeter in the NBA. But if he adds bulk and maintains his shooting touch he could be a dangerous below-the-rim stretch 5 offensively.

All completely valid points... I didn't consider the ball-handling element as much as I should. An interesting thought experiment, nonetheless.

The Ryan Kelly comparison is probably much more valid, but even Ryan was quicker and, perhaps more important, longer (at least I believe), making him a more natural stretch 4 at the pro-level. I feel for Matt because his body fits the style of an NBA 4 from 10-15 years ago, but now he's almost a "tweener" between a 4 and a 5 in the modern NBA (just like Singler was a "tweener" between a 3 and a 4 ten years back).

Given that I'm still cautiously optimistic he returns for a junior season, especially if the current mocks stay cold on him. He can still carve out a role in the NBA as a big with below-average rebounding/defensive potential but sky-high shooting abilities. He just probably needs to show he can do that consistently before an NBA team will take that chance.

That said, I'll add in my caveat with all of these discussions, which is if Matt somehow starts playing well enough that he vaults into the first round conversation that can only mean good things for this year's team, and I wouldn't fault him for leaving

[Troublemaker]

All completely valid points... I didn't consider the ball-handling element as much as I should. An interesting thought experiment, nonetheless.

The Ryan Kelly comparison is probably much more valid, but even Ryan was quicker and, perhaps more important, longer (at least I believe), making him a more natural stretch 4 at the pro-level. I feel for Matt because his body fits the style of an NBA 4 from 10-15 years ago, but now he's almost a "tweener" between a 4 and a 5 in the modern NBA (just like Singler was a "tweener" between a 3 and a 4 ten years back).

Given that I'm still cautiously optimistic he returns for a junior season, especially if the current mocks stay cold on him. He can still carve out a role in the NBA as a big with below-average rebounding/defensive potential but sky-high shooting abilities. He just probably needs to show he can do that consistently before an NBA team will take that chance.

That said, I'll add in my caveat with all of these discussions, which is if Matt somehow starts playing well enough that he vaults into the first round conversation that can only mean good things for this year's team, and I wouldn't fault him for leaving

I mean, if he stays healthy, he's going to have a long NBA career as a sweet-shooting PF/SF on second units. I certainly think he plays more than Kyle's 6 seasons in the NBA. One other thing is that Matt's post game is intriguing against opponents that switch. If, after a switch, he takes an opposing second-unit guard down to the post, his NBA teammates likely will provide better entry passes than his Duke teammates.

In general, college basketball fans are too harsh grading their players' NBA prospects (perhaps because of the bias of wanting them to stay). Don't compare guys like Steward and Hurt to NBA superstars or even to starters. Look at the guys who are making a living on NBA second-units, and/or look at the deep bench, 3rd-string, out-of-the-rotation guys if necessary as well.