Early 2021 Draft Chatter

[scottdude8]

SI.com just provided their first "big board" for the 2020 Draft. Of note is that only two Duke players (Jalen Johnson and DJ Steward) find themselves on the list, and only Johnson is projected in the first round range (in fact, it's explicitly noted that Steward is far from a surefire one-and-done). FWIW, NBADraft.net's most recent 2021 projection only has Johnson in the draft at all.

That means that, at least in the view of these writers, Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore aren't even in the draftable range at the moment. That's surprising for two very different reasons: Moore was projected as a potential lottery pick entering this year (at least by NBADraft.net if I recall correctly), so draft projectors seem to have placed a lot of weight on his early season struggles; in contrast, while Hurt wasn't viewed as a high draft pick entering the year, he has looked quite good in the early going, especially given the move towards more skilled bigs in the NBA, but this doesn't seem to have garnered him any momentum.

This is obviously VERY early projections with a majority of the season to go, but with so much of one's NBA draft status dictated by potential rather than performance, it's notable that guys like Moore, Hurt, Roach, and a lesser extent Steward, all of which may have had some expectation of being draftable in 2021, seem to be facing a bit of an uphill battle.

[budwom]

^ I think people do Wendell a disservice by mentioning/touting him as an early departure. Too much pressure. I saw little from him last year that indicated he was a short timer...let's give him a couple years and see what he can do.

[roywhite]

^ I think people do Wendell a disservice by mentioning/touting him as an early departure. Too much pressure. I saw little from him last year that indicated he was a short timer...let's give him a couple years and see what he can do.

Yeah, for one thing, he's young. Just turned 19 in September, he is younger than those in his recruiting class, 2+ years younger than Cassius Stanley.

Hope he enjoys Duke and Duke basketball until he feels ready to pursue the NBA.

[JasonEvans]

I suspect those rankings are not taking much into account about what Hurt has done the past couple games. He's currently hitting 56% of his 3s. If he continues to scorch the nets like this, he's leaving for the NBA and will be a first round draft pick.

It is too early to tell on the rest of these guys. Right now, if the draft deadline were next week, I would bet on only losing Hurt and JJ... but there is still plenty of time for Steward, Roach, and Moore to make enough waves to think about the draft. Heck, if he keeps on playing the way he has lately, Brakefield may even wonder about his draft stock.

-Jason "I think we need at least another few weeks of play from the freshmen and sophs to have a good sense of where things stand in terms of their draft stock... except for JJ, he's OAD and almost certain to end up in the lottery, I think" Evans

[kAzE]

^ I think people do Wendell a disservice by mentioning/touting him as an early departure. Too much pressure. I saw little from him last year that indicated he was a short timer...let's give him a couple years and see what he can do.

Wendell himself was quoted as a high school senior saying he expected to be one and done at Duke, so it's not exactly something that was generated from the outside. But at the same time, I don't know anybody who watched Duke play last year, Duke fans or otherwise, who were hyping him as a draftable prospect. NBADraft.net is a pretty inaccurate site.

[Heaven's Guardian]

I suspect those rankings are not taking much into account about what Hurt has done the past couple games. He's currently hitting 56% of his 3s. If he continues to scorch the nets like this, he's leaving for the NBA and will be a first round draft pick.

I think he would leave to go pro, but I don't see how he's draftable. Who does Hurt guard in the NBA? He's been better this year, but his footspeed isn't enough to guard on the perimeter and he isn't long or strong enough to guard inside. 10 years ago, when stretch fours were still a viable position, I would agree. But now, he'd have to guard big wings he can't stay in front of or centers who would bully him on the glass. He's an excellent college player and the best player on this team, but I don't see him ever stepping on an NBA floor. There's just no way to build a functional defense where he's on an NBA court, short of a major boost in agility. That board makes sense to me - I think Mark Williams is the second-best prospect from this team, this year, because he has the length and agility to protect the rim in the NBA right now, but DJ doesn't need to improve his skill much to make a big jump in practical application.

[JasonEvans]

In addition to the SI rankings talked about at the top of this thread, NBC has a very early Mock Draft which includes 2 Dukies (it only ranks the top 30 prospects, so NBC could have several Duke players in the mock 2nd round).

Jalen Johnson checks in at #7 and DJ Steward is #27.

ESPN's latest mock was done just before Thanksgiving, so it does not include any of the play in this season thus far. It is far more bullish on Dukies than some other recent mocks.

They've got Jalen at #6, DJ at #24, Wendell #34, and Hurt #37.

[jv001]

In addition to the SI rankings talked about at the top of this thread, NBC has a very early Mock Draft which includes 2 Dukies (it only ranks the top 30 prospects, so NBC could have several Duke players in the mock 2nd round).

Jalen Johnson checks in at #7 and DJ Steward is #27.

ESPN's latest mock was done just before Thanksgiving, so it does not include any of the play in this season thus far. It is far more bullish on Dukies than some other recent mocks.

They've got Jalen at #6, DJ at #24, Wendell #34, and Hurt #37.

It would have to been before Duke played one game this season.

GoDuke!

[Acymetric]

I think he would leave to go pro, but I don't see how he's draftable. Who does Hurt guard in the NBA? He's been better this year, but his footspeed isn't enough to guard on the perimeter and he isn't long or strong enough to guard inside. 10 years ago, when stretch fours were still a viable position, I would agree. But now, he'd have to guard big wings he can't stay in front of or centers who would bully him on the glass. He's an excellent college player and the best player on this team, but I don't see him ever stepping on an NBA floor. There's just no way to build a functional defense where he's on an NBA court, short of a major boost in agility. That board makes sense to me - I think Mark Williams is the second-best prospect from this team, this year, because he has the length and agility to protect the rim in the NBA right now, but DJ doesn't need to improve his skill much to make a big jump in practical application.

Agreed. I don't see any way Hurt's stock rises to first round pick status based on his current production. I don't know that he brings anything at the NBA level other than shooting, and I don't think his shooting is necessarily good enough to carry him (not to mention there would probably be questions of whether his shooting would translate to the NBA game with the longer 3 point line and better defenders).

[CDu]

I suspect those rankings are not taking much into account about what Hurt has done the past couple games. He's currently hitting 56% of his 3s. If he continues to scorch the nets like this, he's leaving for the NBA and will be a first round draft pick.

I think he would leave to go pro, but I don't see how he's draftable. Who does Hurt guard in the NBA? He's been better this year, but his footspeed isn't enough to guard on the perimeter and he isn't long or strong enough to guard inside. 10 years ago, when stretch fours were still a viable position, I would agree. But now, he'd have to guard big wings he can't stay in front of or centers who would bully him on the glass. He's an excellent college player and the best player on this team, but I don't see him ever stepping on an NBA floor. There's just no way to build a functional defense where he's on an NBA court, short of a major boost in agility.

Yeah, Hurt has been and will continue to be a polarizing figure for draftniks. In terms of skills, he clearly has an NBA level offensive skill set. But he's undersized for the NBA 5, both in terms of height and length. And he doesn't have the athleticism to play the 3 or likely even the 4 (and he might even be undersized at the 4 spot in the NBA). So it's hard to find a clear fit for him in the NBA.

That said, I don't share your opinion that he may never step on the floor in the NBA. His shooting skills will find him a spot on an NBA roster. They may even get him a look by some team in the first round, although I'm skeptical of that. So I definitely think he'll get a shot. Whether or not he can stick remains to be seen.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see him go, as next year's team is frontcourt heavy and he's not likely to show much more at the college level than what he's likely to show this year (considering how good he's been so far).

That board makes sense to me - I think Mark Williams is the second-best prospect from this team, this year, because he has the length and agility to protect the rim in the NBA right now, but DJ doesn't need to improve his skill much to make a big jump in practical application.

I think Roach and Steward could be better prospects than Williams, just because I'm not convinced Williams has the agility. He hasn't shown much functional mobility in the limited time he's had so far, and that's ranged in opposition from very small to quite large. He might eventually get there, but it's far from a given.

I think there are a lot of potential NBA pieces but aside from Johnson there are no sure things. Moore (who is still REALLY young) could develop into a Swiss army knife type, and he has the measurables that scouts like. Brakefield is showing some shooting touch and positional versatility which could prove promising at the NBA level. Williams has the length but question marks everywhere else. Steward will need to show more offensive consistency to have a chance as a lead guard off the bench. Roach has the toolkit to be a starting PG, but PG is the hardest position to crack in the NBA so he'll need to really stand out there. Hurt has the aforementioned physical limitations combating his skills.

As for next summer's draft, I'd be surprised if more than one Dukie goes in the first round. But I could see a number of these guys getting into the league, albeit maybe not after this season.

[jv001]

Wendell himself was quoted as a high school senior saying he expected to be one and done at Duke, so it's not exactly something that was generated from the outside. But at the same time, I don't know anybody who watched Duke play last year, Duke fans or otherwise, who were hyping him as a draftable prospect. NBADraft.net is a pretty inaccurate site.

My future God-son-in-law is from Raleigh and he saw Wendell play in person. He told Wendell was at least a good shooter in high school and he thought he would be a NBA player after his sophomore year. Even after these 3 games, he's not changed his mind that some day he'll be in the NBA. I look at Wendell's shooting form and it doesn't look bad. I've seen players with way worse form that were good players. I for the life of me can't see how he misses so many open shots. I guess it's a mental thing. I'll be rooting for him to get it going because we sure need him to step up.

GoDuke!

[awhom111]

I am going to guess that other prospects will not end up having an impersonator, unlike Rokas Jokubaitis:
https://www.eurohoops.net/en/backsta...man-for-money/

[JasonEvans]

I continue to think there is no better place to go to kill your NBA draft stock than the North Carolina basketball program. In the SI Big Board referenced at the beginning of this thread, Day’Ron Sharpe is #14 and Caleb Love is #15.

NBADraft.net currently has Love at #25 and has Sharpe in the 2nd round at #36... in the 2022 NBA Draft. Not even expected to be in this year's draft.

Love played all of 15 minutes today for UNC, less than Leaky Black (31), Kerwin Walton (27), RJ Davis (23), and the same as Andrew Platek. None of those guys will ever be on the NBA radar. Sharpe had a good game, but it was arguably his first game of the year in which he looked at all like a NBA prospect.

Meanwhile Walker Kessler played 5 minutes in this game. In case folks have forgotten, Kessler was a higher rated recruit than Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward. He is currently averaging 3.2 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. Kessler, who had a reputation as a good outside shooter and was seen as a dangerous stretch 4, similar to Matthew Hurt, has not hit a single 3 on the season and is knocking down less than 50% of his free throws.

It is like these kids arrive in Chapel Hill and the talent gets sucked from their bodies.

[tommy]

I continue to think there is no better place to go to kill your NBA draft stock than the North Carolina basketball program. In the SI Big Board referenced at the beginning of this thread, Day’Ron Sharpe is #14 and Caleb Love is #15.

NBADraft.net currently has Love at #25 and has Sharpe in the 2nd round at #36... in the 2022 NBA Draft. Not even expected to be in this year's draft.

Love played all of 15 minutes today for UNC, less than Leaky Black (31), Kerwin Walton (27), RJ Davis (23), and the same as Andrew Platek. None of those guys will ever be on the NBA radar. Sharpe had a good game, but it was arguably his first game of the year in which he looked at all like a NBA prospect.

Meanwhile Walker Kessler played 5 minutes in this game. In case folks have forgotten, Kessler was a higher rated recruit than Jeremy Roach and DJ Steward. He is currently averaging 3.2 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. Kessler, who had a reputation as a good outside shooter and was seen as a dangerous stretch 4, similar to Matthew Hurt, has not hit a single 3 on the season and is knocking down less than 50% of his free throws.

It is like these kids arrive in Chapel Hill and the talent gets sucked from their bodies.

And it's not just the frosh. What the heck has happened to Garrison Brooks? This guy was second team all-ACC last year, was the preseason Player of the Year this year, and he has been nothing short of mediocre this season. He has regressed in every single statistical category other than blocked shots, is shooting a career low percentage from the field and is now at 54% from the line, down a full 10% from last year. This supposed star, who all expected to be UNC's rock and go-to guy this year, is averaging 10.6 ppg and 8 rebounds after his big five point performance tonight. Thus far this year, he is not demonstrating anything like an NBA game, and if he keeps going like this, he'll be lucky to be drafted at all.

[MChambers]

And it's not just the frosh. What the heck has happened to Garrison Brooks? This guy was second team all-ACC last year, was the preseason Player of the Year this year, and he has been nothing short of mediocre this season. He has regressed in every single statistical category other than blocked shots, is shooting a career low percentage from the field and is now at 54% from the line, down a full 10% from last year. This supposed star, who all expected to be UNC's rock and go-to guy this year, is averaging 10.6 ppg and 8 rebounds after his big five point performance tonight. Thus far this year, he is not demonstrating anything like an NBA game, and if he keeps going like this, he'll be lucky to be drafted at all.

I blame, or thank, Seth Greenberg, who earlier this season said that Brooks was going to be the ACC Player of the Year.

[JasonEvans]

Thus far this year, he is not demonstrating anything like an NBA game, and if he keeps going like this, he'll be lucky to be drafted at all.

Garrison Brooks, a PF who has attempted all of 10 total 3-pointers in his 4-year career, is not going to be drafted. I have seen very little of his game that is translatable to the NBA and I shudder to think of him playing defense on NBA PFs.

[kAzE]

It is like these kids arrive in Chapel Hill and the talent gets sucked from their bodies.

I prefer to believe that they were vastly overrated. We really dodged a bullet with the Kessler kid. Phew!

[jimsumner]

I prefer to believe that they were vastly overrated. We really dodged a bullet with the Kessler kid. Phew!

But if Duke hadn't devoted so much time and energy to recruiting Kessler they could have prioritized Hunter Dickinson, who appears to be a better prospect than Kessler or Mark Williams. No guarantee he would have been receptive. Howard has a pretty good pitch to prep big men. But still.

[scottdude8]

But if Duke hadn't devoted so much time and energy to recruiting Kessler they could have prioritized Hunter Dickinson, who appears to be a better prospect than Kessler or Mark Williams. No guarantee he would have been receptive. Howard has a pretty good pitch to prep big men. But still.

As a Michigan fan watching a ton of Dickinson, it still amazes me how under the radar he is. If he was at Duke right now performing like he is, he’d be the talk of college basketball. The guy is a legit 7 footer with a solid build and conditioning (playing 25 plus minutes a game), and his post game is perhaps as polished as Vernon’s was last year.

That said he isn’t a prototypical NBA big. He has been decent switching on pick and rolls, but hasn’t shown an outside shot and isn’t as “springy” as a guy like Vernon was. So it doesn’t surprise me he isn’t showing up on draft boards. But if he presumably comes back to Ann Arbor next year, combined with the incoming recruiting class Coach Howard has coming in, the Wolverines could be a preseason Top 5 team next year. And they’re pretty darn good this year too.

That tangent aside, I think that Mark Williams may still have a higher ceiling than Dickinson. But Dickinson is clearly the more polished and better player right now. And definitely far superior to Kessler...

[tommy]

As a Michigan fan watching a ton of Dickinson, it still amazes me how under the radar he is. If he was at Duke right now performing like he is, he’d be the talk of college basketball. The guy is a legit 7 footer with a solid build and conditioning (playing 25 plus minutes a game), and his post game is perhaps as polished as Vernon’s was last year.

That said he isn’t a prototypical NBA big. He has been decent switching on pick and rolls, but hasn’t shown an outside shot and isn’t as “springy” as a guy like Vernon was. So it doesn’t surprise me he isn’t showing up on draft boards. But if he presumably comes back to Ann Arbor next year, combined with the incoming recruiting class Coach Howard has coming in, the Wolverines could be a preseason Top 5 team next year. And they’re pretty darn good this year too.

That tangent aside, I think that Mark Williams may still have a higher ceiling than Dickinson. But Dickinson is clearly the more polished and better player right now. And definitely far superior to Kessler...

I was gonna post something about Dickinson and Williams and this class the other day but couldn't get to it during the weekend, and I also didn't want to be perceived as being negative on Mark Williams, which I'm not. He may turn out to be a fine player for Duke and I think there's a decent chance he does. Kid has shown some flashes in limited opportunities.

But I looked back on the 2020 recruiting thread, and also the rankings of the experts, and lots of folks really misjudged these guys. Dickinson was ranked 37 in the RSCI and Williams 25, which many would say is a significant gap. On these boards there was a lot of chatter about how it would be nice to get Dickinson, but he's basically similar in ability to Williams albeit with a different style of game, no big deal if we don't get him, maybe Dickinson could back up Williams, but essentially that he's the project and Williams was seeming to be more ready to contribute right away. Obviously that is not the case. Dickinson is averaging like 17 and 9 and shooting over 70% for an undefeated Michigan team that is knocking on the door of the Top 10. Dude was obviously way more ready to excel at the college level than was Mark Williams, and few people seemed to recognize that.

Interesting too to look back in the thread at all the guys we were supposedly recruiting and supposedly prioritizing and where they ended up, all the guys we were "in great shape for" that we didn't get, all the guys "leaning strongly" to us that we didn't get, and how the list of targets shifted over time. Also interesting to see the lists from RSCI, from 247, etc. and compare to how the players actually look at the college level thus far. 247 had Jalen Suggs as #11 (#7 RSCI.) Dude is an NBA point guard right now, and will go top 5 in the draft, with a chance to go #1 depending on who has the pick. BJ Boston was #4 in the RSCI. Umm he has pretty much been a bust at UK so far. (Duke was "in very strong position" with him . . . ). Plenty of others, including the UNC guys with Kessler at 18 and Love at 13 are performing nowhere near those levels. But along with Suggs, the guy who was most underrated was Dickinson. If they could do it over again, the services would almost certainly have him in the top 10, and Michigan contacts that I have are expressing concern that he may end up being a one-year player in Ann Arbor.