MBB: Duke v Illinois (Tue 12/8, 9:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[szstark]

The free throw rate is so important. Duke is not getting to the line right now, not nearly at the rate that it should. Some of that is personnel. Matthew Hurt is a jump shooter and he's not going to be hacked on jump shots. That's understandable. Jalen Johnson and Wendell Moore are the two guys that stand out to me as areas for improvement. Johnson should be living at the line. He has only attempted 8 free throws so far this year. Moore has only attempted 5. Last year, Moore was getting to the line a lot. In 25 games, he took 67 free throw attempts (2.7 attempts per game). Right now, he's at 1.7 attempts a game. The eye test indicates that he's settling for jumpers and the free throw rate confirms that. He needs to start playing to drive. Settling for jumpers is killing his game and saddling the team's offense.

You want Moore to drive more? He is a turnover machine when he drives. I’m going to guess he got to the line more last year when he was playing the 4 and that doesn’t look like it is going to happen much this year because of the personnel we have. His role on this team seems to be much different and it just might not be a good fit.

[CDu]

I meant to tag my earlier post with the feeling that THIS IS A BIG GAME!

It's early season, but it's a great opportunity for this young squad to earn some stripes. It's a highly ranked opponent, we are on our home court where we haven't lost two non-conference games in (I don't know the number but it's really high) years. I hope the team feels the opportunity, comes out swinging, and maintains that intensity throughout.

It's also our last meaningful non-conference opportunity to get a statement win. Going 0-2 against the Big 10 (at home, no less) would be a really bad blow to our post-season seeding opportunities. We'd really need to overperform in conference to make up for it, and we haven't really overperformed in conference in a long time.

And with the ACC looking somewhat iffy in the pre-conference results, even doing well in conference may not be enough to overcome losing both our big out of conference games. Unless for example Va Tech unexpectedly consolidates its big win over Villanova with a strong ACC run, the conference may be light on top-end resumes this year.

So, yeah, I agree. Not at all an understatement to say that THIS IS A BIG GAME!

[SouthernDukie]

I actually think all three of these are evidence of a BIGGER problem with our offense: we haven't been good at breaking down defenses. That has resulted in fewer FT attempts, as we aren't getting to the rim. It has reduced the number of baskets assisted, as we aren't drawing defenses out of position to create open men. And it has led to more turnovers, as we have had guys trying to force things leading to mistakes.

Bingo! This is, I believe, the top issue. Our guards (both old and new) and our forwards don’t at present seem to be able to drive in the half court. My bigger concern is that I’m not sure that skill is even in the wheelhouse of most of our players. Hoping Roach and Steward, as well as Brakefield and Johnson, begin to show signs of this skill immediately. I don’t expect it from Goldwire, Moore or Baker. It’s just not their skill set, imho. But we desperately need someone to start breaking the defense down at least occasionally in the half court or it’s going to be a long season.

[weezie]

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/c...10/3862190001/

[CDu]

Bingo! This is, I believe, the top issue. Our guards (both old and new) and our forwards don’t at present seem to be able to drive in the half court. My bigger concern is that I’m not sure that skill is even in the wheelhouse of most of our players. Hoping Roach and Steward, as well as Brakefield and Johnson, begin to show signs of this skill immediately. I don’t expect it from Goldwire, Moore or Baker. It’s just not their skill set, imho. But we desperately need someone to start breaking the defense down at least occasionally in the half court or it’s going to be a long season.

Based on comments from Coach K and based on what we've seen, I don't anticipate Brakefield is going to do much dribbling this year. Coach K apparently made specific mention that part of what Brakefield has been working on is reducing his use of the dribble so as to avoid getting in disadvantageous situations.

I also wouldn't say that Johnson has not shown playmaking skill. His bigger issues has been staying on the floor and committing turnovers, but he's shown creative ability. It's really Steward and Roach that need to show more. They've been pretty muted as playmakers so far, and we're going to need them to step it up to unlock the offense. Johnson as the third or fourth ballhandler but a key playmaker is a really nice situation. Johnson as the primary/sole playmaker is a bit less inspiring.

[BlueDevilStop]

Very excited for this matchup. Interested to see how Duke defends Dosunmu as well as who steps up for Duke in this matchup.



https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-illinois-game-preview/

[BlueDevilStop]

Is Ayo’s uncle. He is a great kid and comes from a great family. He added a lot of muscle in the off-season and is going to be a dangerous weapon for us to defend.

That being said, I hope he goes for 20...but we win by a comfortable 15+!

He is going to be a challenge for sure. I expect Duke to throw multiple different defenders at him just to try to give him some different looks.

[SouthernDukie]

I also wouldn't say that Johnson has not shown playmaking skill. His bigger issues has been staying on the floor and committing turnovers, but he's shown creative ability.

There’s no doubt he has great court vision and playmaking skills. I wasn’t really disputing that. But I don’t believe we can rely on him to be a point forward in the mold of a Grant Hill barring our current point guards not panning out. I don’t think he has that type of skill set to break down defenses and drive to the hoop at will. The potential is there, but it’s probably asking too much of him to do that right away. But that’s what we are missing right now as much as anything else on offense. And thus far no one has shown they can seize the day and take the mantle. Hopefully one of Roach, Steward, or Johnson can do so.

[Billy Dat]

Rob Dauster with a betting perspective:
https://blog.betrivers.com/college-b...nois-iowa-unc/

"Duke has no kind of interior presence. They are going to play Jalen Johnson and Matthew Hurt at the four and the five. I’m not convinced Wendell Moore or Jordan Goldwire will be the answer to slow down Ayo Dosunmu, and I’m really concerned about the rest of their backcourt overall. Throw in the lack of a home-court advantage with the Cameron Crazies nothing but cardboard cutouts, and this seems like an obvious spot to back Illinois coming off of a loss to maybe the best team in college basketball in Baylor.

Now, that said, I also tend to lean towards the over here.

If Kofi Cockburn is on the floor, I don’t see how Duke is going to be able to slow him down. Johnson is not a post presence. Hurt weighs about 70 pounds less than Cockburn. Mark Williams is a promising freshman, but he’s absolutely a long-term project, not someone that will be able to handle a 6-foot-11, 290-pound behemoth right now.

At the same time, if Duke is going to play five-out, that means that Cockburn is going to have to defend Hurt or Johnson on the perimeter. That is a nightmare matchup for him. Put another way, I’m not sure how either of these teams is going to get stops. Combine that with the fact that Duke wants to run and Illinois is willing to run, and I think that the over is just as good of a play."

[Sixthman]

Rob Dauster with a betting perspective:
https://blog.betrivers.com/college-b...nois-iowa-unc/

"Duke has no kind of interior presence. They are going to play Jalen Johnson and Matthew Hurt at the four and the five. I’m not convinced Wendell Moore or Jordan Goldwire will be the answer to slow down Ayo Dosunmu, and I’m really concerned about the rest of their backcourt overall. Throw in the lack of a home-court advantage with the Cameron Crazies nothing but cardboard cutouts, and this seems like an obvious spot to back Illinois coming off of a loss to maybe the best team in college basketball in Baylor.

Now, that said, I also tend to lean towards the over here.

If Kofi Cockburn is on the floor, I don’t see how Duke is going to be able to slow him down. Johnson is not a post presence. Hurt weighs about 70 pounds less than Cockburn. Mark Williams is a promising freshman, but he’s absolutely a long-term project, not someone that will be able to handle a 6-foot-11, 290-pound behemoth right now.

At the same time, if Duke is going to play five-out, that means that Cockburn is going to have to defend Hurt or Johnson on the perimeter. That is a nightmare matchup for him. Put another way, I’m not sure how either of these teams is going to get stops. Combine that with the fact that Duke wants to run and Illinois is willing to run, and I think that the over is just as good of a play."

There have been few circumstances since Coach K arrived in Durham in which a game plan to negate one key player on the other team has not been effective, regardless of personnel. The question is, at what cost, because most such efforts will open things up for someone else. So while it is true that we will be in a world of hurt if we cannot limit Dosunmu, it will also be a surprise, at least to me. That having been said, I am way more concerned about Duke's offense than defense. The offensive concept doesn't yet seem to match the offensive talent. For all of us, I think it is worth remembering that K is always coaching for this game and for March as well. There is no doubt in my mind that he would rather lose in December than March, and that if he believed losing a game now was part of the journey needed to win in March, he would do it. Those of us who were there at the beginning of his tenure at Duke can testify to the fact that he lost games playing man-to-man defense which he likely might have won playing zone, because his vision, which turned out to be pretty strong, was about hard nosed man-to-man defense.

[dukelifer]

Rob Dauster with a betting perspective:
https://blog.betrivers.com/college-b...nois-iowa-unc/

"Duke has no kind of interior presence. They are going to play Jalen Johnson and Matthew Hurt at the four and the five. I’m not convinced Wendell Moore or Jordan Goldwire will be the answer to slow down Ayo Dosunmu, and I’m really concerned about the rest of their backcourt overall. Throw in the lack of a home-court advantage with the Cameron Crazies nothing but cardboard cutouts, and this seems like an obvious spot to back Illinois coming off of a loss to maybe the best team in college basketball in Baylor.

Now, that said, I also tend to lean towards the over here.

If Kofi Cockburn is on the floor, I don’t see how Duke is going to be able to slow him down. Johnson is not a post presence. Hurt weighs about 70 pounds less than Cockburn. Mark Williams is a promising freshman, but he’s absolutely a long-term project, not someone that will be able to handle a 6-foot-11, 290-pound behemoth right now.

At the same time, if Duke is going to play five-out, that means that Cockburn is going to have to defend Hurt or Johnson on the perimeter. That is a nightmare matchup for him. Put another way, I’m not sure how either of these teams is going to get stops. Combine that with the fact that Duke wants to run and Illinois is willing to run, and I think that the over is just as good of a play."

I will be very surprised if Duke hangs with Illinois. They will need great games for at least two players. It will be interesting for sure

[Troublemaker]

Rob Dauster with a betting perspective:
https://blog.betrivers.com/college-b...nois-iowa-unc/

"Duke has no kind of interior presence. They are going to play Jalen Johnson and Matthew Hurt at the four and the five. I’m not convinced Wendell Moore or Jordan Goldwire will be the answer to slow down Ayo Dosunmu, and I’m really concerned about the rest of their backcourt overall. Throw in the lack of a home-court advantage with the Cameron Crazies nothing but cardboard cutouts, and this seems like an obvious spot to back Illinois coming off of a loss to maybe the best team in college basketball in Baylor.

FYI, Dauster is regarded to be as "square" as can be (i.e. "fish" in poker parlance) by the sharps. His analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. (And as if to prove my point, he completely ignores that Mark Williams got a start last game; Duke will play both big and small this game).

Wish I had more time to break this game down in full. One thing to watch for is that Illinois loves to play drop coverage with their big man, sometimes extreme drop coverage. Coach K sort of "owes" it to us fans for Duke to score a lot of points against drop coverage because he basically never plays it, haha. Hopefully Coach shows the world in this game, "THIS is why I don't play drop coverage against the pick-n-roll." Anyways, if our bigs set good screens, watch out for DJ and the pull-up three and maybe Wendell has a breakout game, too. In high school, he used to feast by getting a ball screen and then scoring in the midrange or at the rim (once he's able to build up speed via being freed by the ball screen.)

[CDu]

FYI, Dauster is regarded to be as "square" as can be (i.e. "fish" in poker parlance) by the sharps. His analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. (And as if to prove my point, he completely ignores that Mark Williams got a start last game; Duke will play both big and small this game).

Wish I had more time to break this game down in full. One thing to watch for is that Illinois loves to play drop coverage with their big man, sometimes extreme drop coverage. Coach K sort of "owes" it to us fans for Duke to score a lot of points against drop coverage because he basically never plays it, haha. Hopefully Coach shows the world in this game, "THIS is why I don't play drop coverage against the pick-n-roll." Anyways, if our bigs set good screens, watch out for DJ and the pull-up three and maybe Wendell has a breakout game, too. In high school, he used to feast by getting a ball screen and then scoring in the midrange or at the rim (once he's able to build up speed via being freed by the ball screen.)

It also could open up the pick and pop game for Hurt. Goldwire and Roach don't have the shooting chops (in theory at least) that Steward does, but they should be able to drive and kick. If Illinois' guards don't stay home on Hurt and get caught chasing the guard, then Hurt will punish them from 3.

Basically, Duke should run high ball screens with Cockburn's man relentlessly, whether to set up a 3 for the guard or a 3 from Hurt. Mix and match some drives to keep Cockburn on skates too.

[whereinthehellami]

This a tough one to predict. Who will the best player on the floor Tuesday night? Dosunmu, Hurt, or Johnson? If Duke can push the pace Cockburn is going to struggle to stay in the game for 20 minutes. Miller and Curbello, the other two players averaging double figures for Illinois are both freshman, so they have some inexperience also.

I think Illinois wins if there backcourt goes off, which would include lots of TOs and fouls by Duke. I think Duke can win if they can limit TO's and get someone to step forward when the lights get brighter. Hurt seems poised to do that. He hit a couple of shots last game that were just daggers and showed tons of confidence. Time to do it against the big boys.

Still looking for Moore to have a good game. He is too good of a player and will figure it out. If he settles down and the game slows down for him, Duke could surprise here with an easy W.

[DavidBenAkiva]

This a tough one to predict. Who will the best player on the floor Tuesday night? Dosunmu, Hurt, or Johnson? If Duke can push the pace Cockburn is going to struggle to stay in the game for 20 minutes. Miller and Curbello, the other two players averaging double figures for Illinois are both freshman, so they have some inexperience also.

I think Illinois wins if there backcourt goes off, which would include lots of TOs and fouls by Duke. I think Duke can win if they can limit TO's and get someone to step forward when the lights get brighter. Hurt seems poised to do that. He hit a couple of shots last game that were just daggers and showed tons of confidence. Time to do it against the big boys.

Still looking for Moore to have a good game. He is too good of a player and will figure it out. If he settles down and the game slows down for him, Duke could surprise here with an easy W.

Regarding Turnovers, I realize everyone is on edge about them and they've been discussed ad naseum on this board so far. However, Illinois is one of the worst teams at generating TO's in the country. They were really bad at is last year, too. They just don't force them on opponents. MSU was the same way, and lo and behold Duke had 3 fewer TO's than MSU. I think you're right that the keys to the game will be limiting their guards from going off against Duke and to find something on offense. Fortunately, Duke has the players and package to limit Illinois from 3. If Coach K is intent on limiting shots around the rim and offensive rebounds, I think Duke can have success with Williams, Hurt, and Johnson. But that lineup is a bit of a tradeoff as the Illini guards would have a serious matchup advantage if Hurt is forced to defend guards most of the night.

[scottdude8]

As has been noted extensively, Duke has only lost two B1G-ACC Challenge games. Guess who covered both those games for The Chronicle? THIS GUY!

With correlation equating to causation, and me being safely confined hundreds of miles and a country away from Cameron, I retain some confidence that we'll win this one

All kidding aside, I think this game hinges on which team exploits mismatches amongst the "bigs" better. If Duke can use Matt Hurt to take bigs like Cockburn out of the paint and/or get them in foul trouble, while still rebounding reasonably well, I like our chances. If Cockburn and company destroy us on the boards, it could be a long night. It will be interesting to see what matchups K uses and if he tries to dictate things by going small or adjusts to Illinois and goes big with Williams/Tapé.

[Sixthman]

At this point in the season, I'll be looking for one or more guys who have not yet done so to simply play to his potential. This list would include just about everyone other than Hurt, Johnson, Steward and maybe Brakefield, but I am particularly looking for Moore, Roach, Goldwire, Baker, or Williams in this game. I'd feel okay with a loss today if we could say two of these five played at a high level.

[BlueDevilStop]

This a tough one to predict. Who will the best player on the floor Tuesday night? Dosunmu, Hurt, or Johnson? If Duke can push the pace Cockburn is going to struggle to stay in the game for 20 minutes. Miller and Curbello, the other two players averaging double figures for Illinois are both freshman, so they have some inexperience also.

I think Illinois wins if there backcourt goes off, which would include lots of TOs and fouls by Duke. I think Duke can win if they can limit TO's and get someone to step forward when the lights get brighter. Hurt seems poised to do that. He hit a couple of shots last game that were just daggers and showed tons of confidence. Time to do it against the big boys.

Still looking for Moore to have a good game. He is too good of a player and will figure it out. If he settles down and the game slows down for him, Duke could surprise here with an easy W.

I think Moore has a solid game tonight. As you mentioned, he is too good to continue struggling the way he has. Not expecting 20 points or anything but I think he will be much improved.

[DukieInBrasil]

At this point in the season, I'll be looking for one or more guys who have not yet done so to simply play to his potential. This list would include just about everyone other than Hurt, Johnson, Steward and maybe Brakefield, but I am particularly looking for Moore, Roach, Goldwire, Baker, or Williams in this game. I'd feel okay with a loss today if we could say two of these five played at a high level.

I agree that we'll need a "3rd Wheel" to go along with Hurt and Johnson. I have to say that J-Gold is definitely playing to his potential, he had a poor 1st game, but has been quite solid the last 2. Brakefield has played far beyond expectations so far (whether that is the same as his potential is tbd). I would say that Mark Williams' numbers from last game were pretty good, and if he were to put up the same #s vs. the 'Nois I would be pleased and impressed. If any or all of Moore, Baker and Roach play to their potential alongside the other 3, then Duke will be golden. If HC3 and/or Tapé are able to give Duke a total of 5-10 productive minutes that would be a sweet, sweet bonus too.

[Sixthman]

I agree that we'll need a "3rd Wheel" to go along with Hurt and Johnson. I have to say that J-Gold is definitely playing to his potential, he had a poor 1st game, but has been quite solid the last 2. Brakefield has played far beyond expectations so far (whether that is the same as his potential is tbd). I would say that Mark Williams' numbers from last game were pretty good, and if he were to put up the same #s vs. the 'Nois I would be pleased and impressed. If any or all of Moore, Baker and Roach play to their potential alongside the other 3, then Duke will be golden. If HC3 and/or Tapé are able to give Duke a total of 5-10 productive minutes that would be a sweet, sweet bonus too.

Of course, consistency would help. If Hurt, Steward and Johnson all equaled 80% of their best night every night, we'd have some decent offense.