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  1. #1

    MBB: Duke v Illinois (Tue 12/8, 9:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    After a bounce-back win over Bellarmine, Duke looks for revenge against the B1G as Illinois pays a visit to Cameron Indoor Stadium late on Tuesday night. The Illini, under Brad Underwood, are a program on the rise after a dormant stretch following the departure of Bill Self to Kansas. Bruce Weber took Illinois to the National Championship game in 2005 with a talented group of players that Self had recruiting, include the dynamic duo of Deron Williams and Dee Brown. That National Runner-Up team lost to Duke in the Sweet 16 the year before, in Atlanta. This Illinois team looks somewhat similar to that famous Fightin' Illini team.

    It starts with the guard play. Junior 6'5" G Ayo Dosunmu is the star for U of I. He shocked some by returning to Champaign for his junior year instead of going pro. He's a combo guard, probably better playing off the ball than running the point but capable of doing either. He is athletic and adept at slashing to the rim. If you squint, he looks a lot like Donovan Mitchell as far as a player. The bugaboo for Dosunmu so far has been the jumper. In fact, that was a major issue for Illinois last year. Only Alan Griffin, who now plays for Syracuse, hit a respectable percentage from behind the arc last season. This year, Dosunmu and Illinois are scorching the nets. On this short season, they are hitting an insane 45.1% of their 3-point attempts so far. That's good enough for 15th best in the nation. A very similar roster hit just 30.1% from 3 last year, 313th in the nation. Much of the early success came against NC A&T, where the Illini hit 17-31 attempts from behind the arc. They've been very good since but much less gaudy at 20-51 (39.2%) since.

    What has changed for Illinois? Dosunmu has improved a lot so far, hitting 8 of 17. They've also gotten great shooting from 6'2" SR G Trent Frazier and 6'3" G Da'Monte Williams. Frazier has player more off the ball as his college career has progressed and has settled into a role as a jump shooter and tough-minded guard. He is playing good team defense and rarely looks for his own shot. Williams is even more passive on offense and is the glue guy, crashing the offensive boards doing all of the dirty work. In fact, Williams has been one of the best rebounders for the Illini the past few years. The upperclassmen are joined by a talented pair of freshmen guards, 6'1" PG Andre Curbello and 6'3" G Adam Miller. Miller and DJ Steward played each other often in the Chicago basketball world and fought for the Mr. Basketball title that Steward won. Miller is a 3-level scorer and is more than a deadly jump shooter. Curbello is a pass-first point guard but is more than capable of getting his own shot. Both can be dangerous players on offense.

    While Duke has a bevvy of wings, Illinois is lacking in that department, relying on a transfer at the forward positions. Holy Cross transfer, 6'6" F Jacob Grandison has been playing well in limited minutes for the Illini so far this season as a stretch 4. He's about the only one that is a true forward that has gotten regular playing time, and only spot minutes at that. Da'Monte Williams plays out on the wings and is one of the better defenders for the Illini, although he gives up several inches in that department to the wings and forward Duke will be able to throw at them. Expect Williams and Dosunmu to get a lot of time guarding Jalen Johnson, Matthew Hurt, and Jaemyn Brakefield.

    Where Illinois has a size advantage is up front. Bruising 7'0" C Kofi Cockburn is the man in the middle. The Jamaican is big and strong, listed at 285 pounds with little body fat evident on his frame. As you might expect, Cockburn is a beast on the boards and around the rim. That's why he is still in college, though, because his game is not diverse enough to translate to the modern NBA. He cleans up defensive rebounds and keeps possessions alive on offense. He dunks if he's within range of the basket and is able to dislodge defenders to get position. He's a real load down there. But outside of 10 feet, he's less useful. And despite his size and quickness, he is not really a shot-blocking presence. Illinois as a team is a poor shot-blocking defense. Duke will have an advantage in this area. Teams can drive into the body of Cockburn and get buckets or get to the foul line. He's a big presence but not insurmountable. Michigan State does a much better job of contesting shots inside the arc, for instance. Besides Cockburn, Illinois relies on 6'9" JR Giorgi Bezhanishvilli to play in the post. He's more of a stretch-4 on offense but is big enough to play the center position. Bezhanishvilli is good on the offensive boards, too, but is not a particularly good rebounder on the defensive end.

    Overall, Illinois does not generate turnovers even with all of those guards they have. They play disciplined defense but do not excel in that area. Against Ohio, star guard Jason Preston was able to get more or less anywhere he wanted even though the Illinois guards were quicker. I think Jalen Johnson can really exploit matchups in this one as the primary ball-handler. Using Mark Williams to set a screen or Matthew Hurt to draw Cockburn out from the post will open the lane and allow Johnson to pick on Dosunmu and Williams. Duke will also be able to exploit Illinois if they can get Hurt isolated in the post as he has the smarts to step back against Cockburn or to use his size advantage against the guards. Duke is going to have to limit dribble penetration from the Illinois guards, though, and shut down their proficient shooting game. I am curious to see if Williams and Johnson can make life around the rim a little harder than the Illini would prefer, too. Like against MSU, I expect a relatively low-turnover game where Duke will have to play smart halfcourt offense and make jumpers to be successful. This is not going to be an easy game but should be competitive and one that Duke should win if they want to build something this season.

  2. #2
    So I was just looking at Duke's advanced stats for the first three games, and obviously they're mostly useless. (If you're wondering, according to the advanced stats, our two best players are Jaemyn Brakefield and Mark Williams, followed by Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson a distant fourth).

    But one thing I noticed was worth mentioning, to all the people complaining about Wendell Moore touching the ball. This is not to say that these numbers will continue, but so far here are the turnover percentages for all 11 recruited scholarship players (worst to best; i.e., the lower the number the better):

    TURNOVER% AFTER THREE GAMES
    Patrick Tapé: 40.4%
    Jeremy Roach: 32.3%
    Jalen Johnson: 29.4%
    Jordan Goldwire: 29.2%
    Joey Baker: 28.6%
    Henry Coleman: 25.0%
    Wendell Moore: 19.2%
    Mark Williams: 15.4%
    DJ Steward: 14.5%
    Matthew Hurt: 6.7%
    Jaemyn Brakefield: 5.9%

    So, yeah, Wendell turns the ball over too much, but at least so far most of the team (including Jordan, Jalen, and Jeremy) are a lot worse.

    Oh, and also, these numbers overall are frightening. The three guys who touch the ball the most turn it over almost one-third of their eligible possessions (and I'm not including Wendell in that group).

    Forget everything else; turnovers are our problem on offense.

  3. #3

    Wendell's woes

    With Wendell, at least half of the time, when he drives north to south, he loses the ball/ dribbles off his own foot. East to west and stationary dribbling is better for him. I noticed last night, Wendell appeared to be much more tentative in driving, knowing he turns it over most of the time when he dribbles north to south. His turnover percentage is probably reflective of him being more cautious vs. being a better ball handler. I cringe every time Wendell tries to drive with the ball. It's almost never a good outcome. Interesting to hear K's comment that Brakefield shouldn't be dribbling. I'd much rather have Brakefield dribbling than Moore.

    Based on your turnover % numbers (and last night's 4-4 3-pt performance!!!), Brakefield is our most reliable player. I really like his game. From a guy picked to be the 10-11th guy on the team, he actually has a lot of game! I hope K plays Jaemyn more. And I hope Wendell works on his handles.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    So I was just looking at Duke's advanced stats for the first three games, and obviously they're mostly useless. (If you're wondering, according to the advanced stats, our two best players are Jaemyn Brakefield and Mark Williams, followed by Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson a distant fourth).

    But one thing I noticed was worth mentioning, to all the people complaining about Wendell Moore touching the ball. This is not to say that these numbers will continue, but so far here are the turnover percentages for all 11 recruited scholarship players (worst to best; i.e., the lower the number the better):

    TURNOVER% AFTER THREE GAMES
    Patrick Tapé: 40.4%
    Jeremy Roach: 32.3%
    Jalen Johnson: 29.4%
    Jordan Goldwire: 29.2%
    Joey Baker: 28.6%
    Henry Coleman: 25.0%
    Wendell Moore: 19.2%
    Mark Williams: 15.4%
    DJ Steward: 14.5%
    Matthew Hurt: 6.7%
    Jaemyn Brakefield: 5.9%

    So, yeah, Wendell turns the ball over too much, but at least so far most of the team (including Jordan, Jalen, and Jeremy) are a lot worse.

    Oh, and also, these numbers overall are frightening. The three guys who touch the ball the most turn it over almost one-third of their eligible possessions (and I'm not including Wendell in that group).

    Forget everything else; turnovers are our problem on offense.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    So I was just looking at Duke's advanced stats for the first three games, and obviously they're mostly useless. (If you're wondering, according to the advanced stats, our two best players are Jaemyn Brakefield and Mark Williams, followed by Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson a distant fourth).

    But one thing I noticed was worth mentioning, to all the people complaining about Wendell Moore touching the ball. This is not to say that these numbers will continue, but so far here are the turnover percentages for all 11 recruited scholarship players (worst to best; i.e., the lower the number the better):

    TURNOVER% AFTER THREE GAMES
    Patrick Tapé: 40.4%
    Jeremy Roach: 32.3%
    Jalen Johnson: 29.4%
    Jordan Goldwire: 29.2%
    Joey Baker: 28.6%
    Henry Coleman: 25.0%
    Wendell Moore: 19.2%
    Mark Williams: 15.4%
    DJ Steward: 14.5%
    Matthew Hurt: 6.7%
    Jaemyn Brakefield: 5.9%

    So, yeah, Wendell turns the ball over too much, but at least so far most of the team (including Jordan, Jalen, and Jeremy) are a lot worse.

    Oh, and also, these numbers overall are frightening. The three guys who touch the ball the most turn it over almost one-third of their eligible possessions (and I'm not including Wendell in that group).

    Forget everything else; turnovers are our problem on offense.
    The sample size here is worth noting, but the trend is also worth noting. In fact, turnovers on both ends of the court are a major concern for Duke right now. This team is only going to reach its peak if the guards can pressure the ball, the wings can get into the passing lanes, and players are forcing transition opportunities and easy buckets. I like Williams in the game as he and Johnson can clean up mistakes and gambles when the guards and wings gamble on steals. But there are too few transition opportunities so far. Fortunately, defensive TO% has improved in each of the three games so far.

    On offense, I want to chalk things up to playing guard-oriented teams. Duke has played two small, guard-oriented teams in Coppin State and Bellarmine that have forced Johnson, Baker, and Moore into handling the ball and often making bad decisions. I don't think that will be as big of an issue against most teams that will play a more traditional frontcourt. On the other hand, the turnover issues from Goldwire and Roach are troubling. Those two need to value the basketball and setup easy buckets for teammates. Their turnover problems cannot happen long-term. Duke needs better PG play. There are plenty of shooters on this team in Hurt, Brakefield, Steward, Baker, and even Johnson. The guards need to give the shooters easy looks for the offense to reach its potential. Right now, Goldwire and Roach in particular aren't doing their teammates any favors.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by cbarry View Post
    With Wendell, at least half of the time, when he drives north to south, he loses the ball/ dribbles off his own foot.
    While I understand the use of exaggeration in making a point, I do not believe your statistics are even close to accurate.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbarry View Post
    Based on your turnover % numbers (and last night's 4-4 3-pt performance!!!), Brakefield is our most reliable player.
    He's only played 35 career minutes. Let's let him play a few more before we anoint him our most reliable player.

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    But there are too few transition opportunities so far.
    So far, fast break points have accounted for 23.5% of our scoring. Last season, we only had seven games in which we exceeded that percentage. So too few transition opportunities does not seem to be our main problem.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    So far, fast break points have accounted for 23.5% of our scoring. Last season, we only had seven games in which we exceeded that percentage. So too few transition opportunities does not seem to be our main problem.
    Question about this: Does transition opportunities include grab-and-go rebounds or just fast break opportunities off of forced turnovers? If it's both, we were talking about two related but different things.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Chicago

    My colleague

    Is Ayo’s uncle. He is a great kid and comes from a great family. He added a lot of muscle in the off-season and is going to be a dangerous weapon for us to defend.

    That being said, I hope he goes for 20...but we win by a comfortable 15+!
    Windy City Devil

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Question about this: Does transition opportunities include grab-and-go rebounds or just fast break opportunities off of forced turnovers? If it's both, we were talking about two related but different things.
    "Fast break points" and "points off turnovers" are two separately tracked stats. So, I assume grab rebounds with an outlet pass would be considered fast break in kedsy's numbers.
       

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    So I was just looking at Duke's advanced stats for the first three games, and obviously they're mostly useless. (If you're wondering, according to the advanced stats, our two best players are Jaemyn Brakefield and Mark Williams, followed by Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson a distant fourth).

    But one thing I noticed was worth mentioning, to all the people complaining about Wendell Moore touching the ball. This is not to say that these numbers will continue, but so far here are the turnover percentages for all 11 recruited scholarship players (worst to best; i.e., the lower the number the better):

    TURNOVER% AFTER THREE GAMES
    Patrick Tapé: 40.4%
    Jeremy Roach: 32.3%
    Jalen Johnson: 29.4%
    Jordan Goldwire: 29.2%
    Joey Baker: 28.6%
    Henry Coleman: 25.0%
    Wendell Moore: 19.2%
    Mark Williams: 15.4%
    DJ Steward: 14.5%
    Matthew Hurt: 6.7%
    Jaemyn Brakefield: 5.9%

    So, yeah, Wendell turns the ball over too much, but at least so far most of the team (including Jordan, Jalen, and Jeremy) are a lot worse.

    Oh, and also, these numbers overall are frightening. The three guys who touch the ball the most turn it over almost one-third of their eligible possessions (and I'm not including Wendell in that group).

    Forget everything else; turnovers are our problem on offense.
    Torvik has Wendell’s TO% at 23 which is still middle of the pack on this team, you’re right.

    I think the perception that he’s turning it over a lot is impacted by the overall perception that WM is underperforming this year, not making great decisions, etc. The guy is being outrebounded by Jeremy Roach (DReb%) and his eFG is a sizzling 27.8% on the team’s second highest usage rate. With all due respect to Wendell, perhaps people think he’s turnover prone because it feels like a TO whenever he shoots right now?

    Don’t think it’s controversial to say that two of the biggest things Duke needs is an improved Wendell Moore and fewer turnovers across the board. Oh, and maybe have JJ foul a bit less.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    The Blue Devils and the Fighting Illini have not met since the 2007 Maui Invitational and are clashing for just the third time in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Duke topped Illinois in each of the first two years of the event – a 72-69 win in Chicago in 1999 behind 21 points from now assistant coach Chris Carrawell, and a 78-77 victory in Greensboro the next season with 23 points from Jason Williams.

    Duke is 19-2 (.905) all-time in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, marking both the most wins and best winning percentage in the event's history. The Blue Devils have won eight consecutive games in the Challenge and are unblemished (9-0) at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

    The all-time series between Duke and Illinois dates back to 1986 and favors Duke, 5-2. The Illini's only previous visit to Cameron Indoor was a 75-65 victory over the hosts on December 2, 1995.

    https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/30/m...challenge.aspx
       

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Question about this: Does transition opportunities include grab-and-go rebounds or just fast break opportunities off of forced turnovers? If it's both, we were talking about two related but different things.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    "Fast break points" and "points off turnovers" are two separately tracked stats. So, I assume grab rebounds with an outlet pass would be considered fast break in kedsy's numbers.
    Bluedog is correct. "Fast break points" are points scored within 8 seconds of taking possession, so it would count all transition opportunities. "Points off turnovers" includes any points scored in the next possession after a turnover, whether live ball or dead ball, and no matter how long it takes. So if you're just talking about transition points scored off of live-ball turnovers, neither stat gives you what you want. (Personally I think the "points off turnovers" stat isn't very useful, so I rarely reference it.)

    Though I have to say, if the point is getting "easy buckets," as you put it, I'm not sure why you'd only talk about transition opportunities that occur after live-ball turnovers.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    The Blue Devils and the Fighting Illini have not met since the 2007 Maui Invitational and are clashing for just the third time in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Duke topped Illinois in each of the first two years of the event – a 72-69 win in Chicago in 1999 behind 21 points from now assistant coach Chris Carrawell, and a 78-77 victory in Greensboro the next season with 23 points from Jason Williams.

    Duke is 19-2 (.905) all-time in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, marking both the most wins and best winning percentage in the event's history. The Blue Devils have won eight consecutive games in the Challenge and are unblemished (9-0) at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

    The all-time series between Duke and Illinois dates back to 1986 and favors Duke, 5-2. The Illini's only previous visit to Cameron Indoor was a 75-65 victory over the hosts on December 2, 1995.

    https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/30/m...challenge.aspx
    Jason’s better! (Clap, clap, clapclapclap)

    I’m partial to these Duke-Illinois games, as that 2000 game was my first ever Duke game. Will never forget Jason outdueling Frank Williams in a packed Greensboro Colliseum.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    That 2004-2005 Illinois team was fun to watch with Deron Williams, Dee Brown, Luther Head, James Augustine, and Roger Powell. They were 37-1 heading into the national championship game vs Carolina and unfortunately didn’t defeat the Heels for the national title in St. Louis.

    Interestingly enough, that was Bruce Weber’s 2nd year at Illinois and he never made it out of the first weekend of the NCAAT the rest of his career there (7 additional seasons after 2004-2005).
       

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    Jason’s better! (Clap, clap, clapclapclap)

    I’m partial to these Duke-Illinois games, as that 2000 game was my first ever Duke game. Will never forget that game!
    I remember that game too. Those were some of the best ACC/B1G challenges in the early 2000s in my opinion. I saw Duke Ohio State at Greensboro Coliseum in 2002 (part of the 2002-2003 season).
       

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Bluedog is correct. "Fast break points" are points scored within 8 seconds of taking possession, so it would count all transition opportunities. "Points off turnovers" includes any points scored in the next possession after a turnover, whether live ball or dead ball, and no matter how long it takes. So if you're just talking about transition points scored off of live-ball turnovers, neither stat gives you what you want. (Personally I think the "points off turnovers" stat isn't very useful, so I rarely reference it.)

    Though I have to say, if the point is getting "easy buckets," as you put it, I'm not sure why you'd only talk about transition opportunities that occur after live-ball turnovers.
    I was imprecise in what I was trying to say, so apologies for the confusion and thanks for the clarification.

    My view of this team so far is that they are not generating enough turnovers on defense. I conflated that with transition opportunities, but that's just one sort of transition opportunity. The number and share of possessions ending in forced turnovers is improving each game so far, so it might not be that big of a deal. I just thought they should have done a better job against MSU as that team has traditionally struggled with holding onto the ball and their PG play is a little iffy right now.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I was imprecise in what I was trying to say, so apologies for the confusion and thanks for the clarification.

    My view of this team so far is that they are not generating enough turnovers on defense. I conflated that with transition opportunities, but that's just one sort of transition opportunity. The number and share of possessions ending in forced turnovers is improving each game so far, so it might not be that big of a deal. I just thought they should have done a better job against MSU as that team has traditionally struggled with holding onto the ball and their PG play is a little iffy right now.
    We had a 19.3% defensive turnover pct against MSU. A number we only topped in 2 of our last 12 games of 2019-20. Not low enough to complain about, IMO. It was against Coppin State (10.5%) that we were pathetic at forcing turnovers.

    I mean, obviously you always want to force more turnovers, but the much bigger problem against Michigan State was our poor shooting on offense (36.3% eFG%). Our biggest problem overall is turnovers on offense. We've also fouled too much and not gotten to the line often enough on offense (although we were actually pretty good at getting to the line against Mich St).

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    Can’t say I’m very optimistic. Maybe if this was a real Cameron environment I’d feel better. Illinois looks very good and Duke is still very much figuring things out on offense. I’m thinking 83-72 Illini...
       

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Bluedog is correct. "Fast break points" are points scored within 8 seconds of taking possession, so it would count all transition opportunities. "Points off turnovers" includes any points scored in the next possession after a turnover, whether live ball or dead ball, and no matter how long it takes. So if you're just talking about transition points scored off of live-ball turnovers, neither stat gives you what you want. (Personally I think the "points off turnovers" stat isn't very useful, so I rarely reference it.)

    Though I have to say, if the point is getting "easy buckets," as you put it, I'm not sure why you'd only talk about transition opportunities that occur after live-ball turnovers.
    Points off turnovers is one of the dumbest stats in sports. If Team A has the ball and is called for a travel, after which Team B inbounds the ball, runs its regular offense and scores, that is considered points off a turnover even though the turnover had nothing to do with the points scored. It's not like soccer, where you can quickly in bound the ball without it being touched by an official and perhaps gain an advantage.
    Last edited by jimsumner; 12-06-2020 at 06:26 PM.

  19. #19
    This is the first time in a while I read a scouting report and felt overwhelmed. Ayo will look to have a big night unless we can guard the perimeter well and limit dribble penetration. Zone D anyone? Roach is going to be a major liability if we don’t.

    I’ve no idea how we will react to Kofi. He could have a field day on both ends. Keeping this under double digits will be a moral victory, and I honestly don’t believe in such things.
       

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by AGDukesky View Post
    Can’t say I’m very optimistic. Maybe if this was a real Cameron environment I’d feel better. Illinois looks very good and Duke is still very much figuring things out on offense. I’m thinking 83-72 Illini...
    I share your unease. Very, very unease-ful here at the castle.
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

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