Duke MSU post game thread

[DukieInBrasil]

It's too early (IMO) for adjusted efficiency ratings, and I haven't gone back and looked this up, but this had to be one of the worst "raw" offensive performances Duke has had in years, maybe in decades. Our defense looked poor to me using the "eye test," but not so bad in the numbers.

On offense, the only thing we did well was get to the free throw line. On defense, we fouled too much (again) and gave up too many easy inside points. The fact that we only lost by 6 in this game may bode well or may simply mean Michigan State isn't as good as their ranking, either.

I would think that this would have been a good justification for playing more Tapé, Williams or Coleman, but apparently not.

I’m curious as to what everyone expected out of Tape. 11 and 6 at Columbia didn’t give me much reason to hope that he would be a world beater at Duke.

there's a big difference between getting in a game and playing a few (perhaps) useful minutes and being a "world beater".

Baker needs to prove that he deserves the admiration of so many posters here. I know that sounds terrible but his decision making is going to have to sharpen up in a hurry.
The flagrant was inexcusable. Yes, the player would have fallen regardless and yes the contact was barely a caress but geebus Joey should be smarter than that by now.

And who the heck is the point guard?

Yes, that foul by Joey was dumb af, but it still didn't deserve to be called a flagrant.

“Youth”—— am i the only one weary of this obvious excuse every year when the team stumbles? From K down to the DBR posters, it’s the go-to explanation for all things negative. Sorry, but that’s been the business model for 7 years so we better just own that every new player is not an Okafor, Parker, or Zion.
This particular group of hopeful OADers, with the exception of Johnson and Coleman, have teenage bodies and look to need two to three years for their bodies to catch up to the talent. And who really knows about Coleman?
IMO, the risk to the program is not K’s age, it is more that the pipeline gets clogged and we end up with too many players not moving on to the NBA as quickly as anticipated. That would create roster and playing time issues. Tight rotations (7-8 guys) and defined roles make for happy players... but stop with the “ youth” thing when it has been Duke’s identity since 2014.

Just because it's a trend that repeats itself every year doesn't mean it's not true. This year's Fr. don't get any experience points from last year's Fr. I think you may have identified a problem with your "pipeline" comment, in that, i don't know who, other than JJ, would be ready to try to get drafted after this year. Maybe Hurt? Moore looks like a 4-year player now.

[miramar]

I can't say I saw it that way. I also can't say I am the winningest coach in college basketball.

When Coach K said that the team didn’t finish strong but that they got the shots they wanted, he might have been saying that (sometimes) they were spreading the court and attacking the basket off the dribble much like we are used to seeing. Unfortunately, instead of getting a high percentage shot at the end, MSU was cutting off the drives near the basket and Duke would end up taking (dare I say it?) the kind of shots we were used to seeing under Coach P.

Considering that a lot of these guys were in high school six months ago, they will have to learn that at this level things are way different, so they have to go up strong or kick the ball out to their teammates.

Of course, other times they were standing around looking lost, or perhaps like a young team playing in only their second game. Fortunately, Dr. Fauci has said that things will get better early next year, so I think he is saying that we will be fine by the time March Madness rolls around. At least I think that’s what Fauci is talking about, but I could be mistaken.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Look, I would love to see them get time but the reality is that none of us have been at practice to see any of these guys perform. We have seen a couple fleeting glimpses in edited videos and then a couple tiny stretches in the two games played thus far.

Maybe I am crazy to say so, but I suspect that if any of these three were showing themselves to be among the top 7 or 8 players on the team in practice, they would be playing more in games.

Then again, it took unusual circumstances late in the season for K to consider playing Justin Robinson last season, but once Justin got into games he was suddenly an impact player... so maybe that argues for giving these guys more of a chance.

This is the correct take. Listening to K's postgame and watching the game backwards in my head, Duke got great looks from 3 and missed them. Perhaps that means that Duke is a bad 3 point shooting team, but impossible to tell that from one game. There was some trouble finishing through contact in the lane. That comes down to reps and toughness. K seemed plausibly upbeat about this issue. That can be cleaned up. The defensive effort was superb, especially from Goldwire, Baker and Brakefield (he feels like a poor man's Stacey Augmon to me as a comp). Overall there is one thing you can always control on a basketball court: effort. You can't control when the other guy jumps up and makes shots. You can't control if you jump up and make shots. You CAN contol effort. K was pleased with the effort, and so was I. Also, as a fan, I can expect effort. That is the thing I can reasonably expect to see nightly. Can't expect wins, shots to fall, the other team to miss. Just effort. If Duke plays hard then they have met expectations. You live with results. You expect effort.

Also, Tape/Williams/Coleman can't play. Maybe some, one or all get there this season. Maybe it doesn't happen this season but does down the road. But sports is a meritocracy and you get what you earn and play just as much as you deserve. Having played sports, I have no sympathy for kids not getting some burn. If you want minutes, go be better. I am pulling for those guys, but it ain't up to me. It's up to them.

[ingrjc1]

Great to get to watch a game and hard not to be critical

I would love to see some on court leadership develop by someone who contributes regularly on the offensive or defensive side. I think they are lacking this right now, but it is early. More Brakefield please. I could see him trying to serve the leadership role at many points during the game; as a freshman.

[DukeFanNotNBAFan]

I think a lot of us saw the same things on offense. Nine assists (9!!) confirms that. Goldwire and Hurt were the post-game interviews and they saw that. Goldwire specifically used the word "stagnant" to describe Duke's second-half offense.

But I asked K about that and he very much did not agree with the premise. No big surprise. He can be very protective of his young teams. But Duke is going to have to figure out ways to score in the half-court against good teams and I strongly suspect better ball movement will have to be part of the solution.

And yes, Duke can score in transition and with the exception of Virginia, Duke may not play a better defensive team than Michigan State. It's early, Duke had a truncated pre-season and there's every reason to believe Duke can iron out these areas of concern. It's very premature to get on the ledge.

Hopefully he’s just protecting his players, although I don’t blame them for that showing.

But if he truly believes that the offense was running as intended, that’s pretty scary. Basketball isn’t played at a stand-still. It requires constant motion.

[mkirsh]

Coleman Tape and Williams need to play

While I'd love to see what these three can do, here is the challenge for the coaches: the best two players on the team through two games are Hurt and Johnson, so in order for Coleman, Tape, or Williams to play you need to either 1) put one of your best two players on the bench for stretches, or 2) have them try to play down a spot and guard college wing players. Neither is ideal if you are trying to win games. And add to that if Brakefield continues to play like he did last night, he is going to earn more front court minutes as well. So if Hurt and Johnson play 30 minutes each, and Brakefield plays 15, that only leaves 5 minutes for one of the other three bigs, unless we start playing people out of position (side note - big day for me. I start a post game thread AND turn it into a minutes thread as well!). So the best hope is that Johnson or Brakefield could slide to 3 (taking some of Moore's/Baker's minutes) which could free up time for other bigs, so we will have to keep an eye out for that, however Coach K usually plays people up not down. It's still very very early, but based on what we have seen it may be hard for any of those three to earn substantial minutes this year given the roster construction.

[Troublemaker]

First, some crow. I called this game wrong in the pre-game thread, and despite going 4-1 overall in Degenerates last night, it always bothers me if the "1" is a Duke game.

Overall, I still feel pretty good about this team. We significantly cut down on the turnovers as expected, and we defended well overall again. The reason I still feel pretty good about this team is because it's our offense that's been struggling. You have to keep in mind that it's been 13 years since Coach K has produced an offense outside of kenpom's top-10. I don't think that streak gets broken this year because I feel like we do have a good amount of offensive talent (that is getting mis-used by Coach K right now, but he'll figure it out given his history).

In short, this is the right side of the ball to be struggling in. I wouldn't be so confident if we were getting killed on defense.

More later.

[dukelifer]

First, some crow. I called this game wrong in the pre-game thread, and despite going 4-1 overall in Degenerates last night, it always bothers me if the "1" is a Duke game.

Overall, I still feel pretty good about this team. We significantly cut down on the turnovers as expected, and we defended well overall again. The reason I still feel pretty good about this team is because it's our offense that's been struggling. You have to keep in mind that it's been 13 years since Coach K has produced on offense outside of kenpom's top-10. I don't think that streak gets broken this year because I feel like we do have a good amount of offensive talent (that is getting mis-used by Coach K right now, but he'll figure it out given his history).

In short, this is the right side of the ball to be struggling in. I wouldn't be so confident if we were getting killed on defense.

More later.

I agree that the D is ahead of the O and that is always good. That said- this iso ball is not going to work against top teams. There is almost no flow to the offense. The one bright spot was Brakefield and a little end of game toughness by Goldwire. But the rest of the team looks lost trying to attack a college D. Johnson is a talent but he has disappeared twice in the second halves of games. Not sure if it is conditioning or attitude but that will need to get better. Gonna be a tough year with these guys but they will get better. But this could be a year of a lot of close losses.

[jaywilliams22]

Some thoughts:

- Moore needs to work on the handle. Can't remember someone dribbling off of their foot as much as he has over last season and this year's first 2 games. We should get him the ball while in motion going towards the hoop. A weave at the top of the key if you will.
- Roach needs to be more decisive. He often gets caught jumping and stuck in the air looking for a pass. Lot of turnovers for him.
- The shooting can't be as bad as it was tonight. If we hit 2-3 more 3's we have a good chance of winning
- Appears we are still working through rotations and finding the best 5 on the floor together. JJ's early foul trouble really hurt us when we were in a groove

[kshepinthehouse]

Some thoughts:

- Moore needs to work on the handle. Can't remember someone dribbling off of their foot as much as he has over last season and this year's first 2 games. We should get him the ball while in motion going towards the hoop. A weave at the top of the key if you will.
- Roach needs to be more decisive. He often gets caught jumping and stuck in the air looking for a pass. Lot of turnovers for him.
- The shooting can't be as bad as it was tonight. If we hit 2-3 more 3's we have a good chance of winning
- Appears we are still working through rotations and finding the best 5 on the floor together. JJ's early foul trouble really hurt us when we were in a groove

Moore was given a perfect lead pass in transition headed to the hoop and messed that up. About 30 seconds later he turned the ball over driving to the basket. At this point, I don’t know what needs to happen to get him going. I thought he has turned a corner in last years UNC game.

[UrinalCake]

I do wonder if there is a correlation between our cutting down on turnovers and the stagnant offense. Like maybe K had drilled into the guys for the past three days that they have to protect the ball, and that led to them not wanting to attack for fear of making a mistake. Also we got called for a couple charges early on (which I think were bad calls in response to fainting goat defense) which further got into the players’ heads.

If the team’s defense is in fact ahead of the offense then that’s not a bad thing. Of course it’s also possible that MSU’s offense is just not that good either. I watched some of the UK-Kansas game and the second half offense was certainly not a thing of beauty. Maybe our expectations need to be reset due to how much practice time has been lost to COVID.

[uh_no]

I do wonder if there is a correlation between our cutting down on turnovers and the stagnant offense. Like maybe K had drilled into the guys for the past three days that they have to protect the ball, and that led to them not wanting to attack for fear of making a mistake. Also we got called for a couple charges early on (which I think were bad calls in response to fainting goat defense) which further got into the players’ heads.

If the team’s defense is in fact ahead of the offense then that’s not a bad thing. Of course it’s also possible that MSU’s offense is just not that good either. I watched some of the UK-Kansas game and the second half offense was certainly not a thing of beauty. Maybe our expectations need to be reset due to how much practice time has been lost to COVID.

maybe that's what k meant by getting the shots we wanted... maybe any shot is a shot they wanted... in contrast to it being a turnover instead

[gofurman]

I agree with you. Right now we are missing a PG figure who can create good shots for others. There are some talented young guards on the team and perhaps better PG play will emerge. Goldwire had a good game as a tough on-ball defender and sparkplug, but is not the answer at PG.

We had poor efficiency shooting the three and wound up taking too many of those. Because of our lack of threat from the three, MSU was then able to defend inside and thwart our attempts around the basket. We had problems finishing against the tough inside defense.

The talent is there. Johnson, Brakefield, Hurt and Goldwire all had their moments and not doubt others will get it going. Moore and Baker had poor offensive games. I have to hope they can d better in the coming games.

THIS. SO MUCH THIS. College is and has been a PG game. Thus Duke's success w Quinn Cook and Jones.. Jay Williams etc. You HAVE to have a PG who can create. I think Goldwire gives everything he has and honestly has exceeded my expectations w his D, effort, and occasional offensive contributions. He has. But if he is playing 30+ minutes we aren't in the sweet 16 in all likelihood. Goldwire should be a game manager and spark plug playing 15/20 minutes w ROach and Steward making plays. Thus I look at ROACH. He is the one I haven't seen much from and he is ... the PG ! The teams ceiling is dependent on Roach. If he becomes a legit PG they can be a top 10 team. If we stay as is at the PG slot we are borderline top 25. And I have loved watching how much Goldwire has improved over 4 years - I miss that w this one-and-done stuff... but he is not the answer. He isn't Duhon or Nolan Smith etc. He is a wonderful 3rd option w Roach and Steward .

Roach is the key for this team/ its that simple to me. His first half last night as a top 20 ranked PG he had 3 TOs and 0 assists in the first half. I have hopes that he will improve and am sure he will though most star PGs start off showing more than that. Many great PGs struggle early but not as much as he has.

[szstark]

This is the correct take. Listening to K's postgame and watching the game backwards in my head, Duke got great looks from 3 and missed them. Perhaps that means that Duke is a bad 3 point shooting team, but impossible to tell that from one game. There was some trouble finishing through contact in the lane. That comes down to reps and toughness. K seemed plausibly upbeat about this issue. That can be cleaned up. The defensive effort was superb, especially from Goldwire, Baker and Brakefield (he feels like a poor man's Stacey Augmon to me as a comp). Overall there is one thing you can always control on a basketball court: effort. You can't control when the other guy jumps up and makes shots. You can't control if you jump up and make shots. You CAN contol effort. K was pleased with the effort, and so was I. Also, as a fan, I can expect effort. That is the thing I can reasonably expect to see nightly. Can't expect wins, shots to fall, the other team to miss. Just effort. If Duke plays hard then they have met expectations. You live with results. You expect effort.

Also, Tape/Williams/Coleman can't play. Maybe some, one or all get there this season. Maybe it doesn't happen this season but does down the road. But sports is a meritocracy and you get what you earn and play just as much as you deserve. Having played sports, I have no sympathy for kids not getting some burn. If you want minutes, go be better. I am pulling for those guys, but it ain't up to me. It's up to them.

This begs the classic question: how do you get better if you don't play? I know the "earn your time in practice" argument, but there is a limit to the argument. Baker apparently can't miss in practice, but can't hit the rim in a real game against a quality opponent. Moore must do really well in practice because in games he shows no handle, no shot, and only mediocre defense. Johnson and Hurt seem to be the best players on the team, but Hurt is definitely out of position as a center. Why not try a "true" center in the middle, move Hurt to stretch 4, and Johnson to the 3 where he would be a nightmare matchup for most opponents? He might have a problem guarding a 3, but why not see and also see if a shot blocker in the middle could cover for the current lack of middle defense? Yes, that would cut down on Moore's time, but right now I see that as a positive. He needs to earn his time by quality minutes on the floor, not in practice. As others have pointed out, Zion Williamson, Jason Tatum, Brandon Ingram, etc. are not walking back through the door and we need to start playing a style more appropriate to the talent we actually have. Am I second guessing the GOAT? Yeah, I guess I am, but what is this board for anyway?

[bluenorth]

So where does the team go from here? I'd have them looking at the game film (tape, recording, whatever) and point out how much the intense early defence paid off. This team can play with any opponent when they bring that kind of effort.

But playing that hard comes at a cost. You need a deep bench and/or a very high fitness level, plus the ability to maintain concentration on your assignment. Not just the usual "I'm young and in good shape" fitness, but a level above that. Due to the covid related adjustments these guys are probably not quite there yet.

I'd also point out that they can get to the rim, then need to finish strong. There's a lot to work on, but it's probably best to focus on 2-3 things for now.

[dukelifer]

THIS. SO MUCH THIS. College is and has been a PG game. Thus Duke's success w Quinn Cook and Jones.. Jay Williams etc. You HAVE to have a PG who can create. I think Goldwire gives everything he has and honestly has exceeded my expectations w his D, effort, and occasional offensive contributions. He has. But if he is playing 30+ minutes we aren't in the sweet 16 in all likelihood. Goldwire should be a game manager and spark plug playing 15/20 minutes w ROach and Steward making plays. Thus I look at ROACH. He is the one I haven't seen much from and he is ... the PG ! The teams ceiling is dependent on Roach. If he becomes a legit PG they can be a top 10 team. If we stay as is at the PG slot we are borderline top 25. And I have loved watching how much Goldwire has improved over 4 years - I miss that w this one-and-done stuff... but he is not the answer. He isn't Duhon or Nolan Smith etc. He is a wonderful 3rd option w Roach and Steward .

Roach is the key for this team/ its that simple to me. His first half last night as a top 20 ranked PG he had 3 TOs and 0 assists in the first half. I have hopes that he will improve and am sure he will though most star PGs start off showing more than that. Many great PGs struggle early but not as much as he has.

The fact that Roach has not taken the reigns from Goldwire may tell us something about his readiness. Freshman Cook was pretty shaky- 4.4ppg - rarely starting- 25% from 3!. They have a very similar phenotype- both injured in HS - both a tad undersized. Roach will get better but it may not be this year. That is basically the story of the whole team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The Good:
-Big fan of Hurt's aggressiveness. Yes, he has issues finishing with physicality, but his game has clearly improved. He takes good shots (or at least shots where you don't scream, "what the hell was that?!" at the TV)
-Jalen had a great first half. He is clearly the best passer and rebounder on the team. I said during the summer he reminds me of Ben Simmons. I think that still holds true
-Brakefield was a revelation. Not sure if he's part of the rotation, but if I'm the coaching staff, I'm using Brakefield as an example of, "this kid will take your rotation position"

The Bad:
-Goldwire had an okay game. First half was a disaster, and then the second half he clearly came to defend. He cannot score in the halfcourt but we won't need him to
-Joey Baker's non-shooting. I mean, he tried on D. 4 steals will do that. But 5 fouls? Oh boy...
-Passing was an adventure
-Jalen's second half was bad

The Ugly:
-Nearly everything about Wendell's game, with the exception of his FTs (where he is a really good 80% shooter). I don't think he's improved at anything. His defense was bad and his shooting was worse. His turnovers (2 off his own feet) may be worse than his shooting. Is it possible he's regressed?
-Roach for the first 39 minutes. Not really sure what to make of him. Didn't like what I saw from his defense. Didn't like what I saw from his shooting. Didn't like what I saw from his distribution.
-Baker's shooting. He's 0-6 from deep for the year. He had zero points and 5 fouls.

[uh_no]

The fact that Roach has not taken the reigns from Goldwire may tell us something about his readiness. Freshman Cook was pretty shaky- 4.4ppg - rarely starting- 25% from 3!. They have a very similar phenotype- both injured in HS - both a tad undersized. Roach will get better but it may not be this year. That is basically the story of the whole team.

cook was never a point guard by trade, only by necessity...and it took Tyus showing up before he could really thrive. He and roach are nothing alike in that regard.

[ClemmonsDevil]

This begs the classic question: how do you get better if you don't play? I know the "earn your time in practice" argument, but there is a limit to the argument. Baker apparently can't miss in practice, but can't hit the rim in a real game against a quality opponent. Moore must do really well in practice because in games he shows no handle, no shot, and only mediocre defense. Johnson and Hurt seem to be the best players on the team, but Hurt is definitely out of position as a center. Why not try a "true" center in the middle, move Hurt to stretch 4, and Johnson to the 3 where he would be a nightmare matchup for most opponents? He might have a problem guarding a 3, but why not see and also see if a shot blocker in the middle could cover for the current lack of middle defense? Yes, that would cut down on Moore's time, but right now I see that as a positive. He needs to earn his time by quality minutes on the floor, not in practice. As others have pointed out, Zion Williamson, Jason Tatum, Brandon Ingram, etc. are not walking back through the door and we need to start playing a style more appropriate to the talent we actually have. Am I second guessing the GOAT? Yeah, I guess I am, but what is this board for anyway?

Not that (to me). I understand why people second guess. I DEFINITELY do not. Ain't my team. My role here is support and rooting. I have no responsibility in minutes distribution, offensive and defensive selection, or any implementation of strategy. I get to choose if I am a fan or not. They have no responsibility to me other than effort. That is the commodity I have a right to expect.

[nmduke2001]

Duke has played a pro-style isolation offense for years. Just think back to those ACC tournaments when every single time down the stretch the ball went to someone like Ingram, Tatum or Allen and they went one-on-one against their man and usually scored. That offense works great when you have legit NBA guys that are the ISO guy. It does not work when you don't have a true mismatch to exploit. Johnson might be that guy, but he isn't yet. The lack of ball movement with this team is going to lead to a lot of late, forced shots.

By the way, ISO ball doesn't always work even with supreme talent like Zion, RJ and Cam. Tre and Goldwire were so bad at shooting that year that anytime we tried ISO the opposing team simply doubled off of Tre or Goldwire and made Zion, RJ and Cam more pedestrian. The last great real ball movement offense was probably 2010.