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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    ehhhh georgia state is actually pretty good. closer to losing to wake, according to currnet KP preseason #s. GT is also not that good. they only had like 70% chance of winning pre-game.

    Either way, not a good look for a team that people were touting as the one that would be the one that finally pastner was going to win with. With patience in atlanta likely wearing thin, and being on year 5 of a 6 year contract (and thus effectively needing to be re-signed or fired at the end of th eyear), IMO he's coaching for his job.
    Yeah, during that conversation, I mentioned that GaTech was going to miss their ACC All-Defensive center James Banks, who graduated. Welp, GaSt's guards had their way driving to the rim, and overall, GaSt shot 55% from two-pt range, a higher mark than ANY opponent of GaTech achieved last season with Banks roaming the paint.

    GaTech will need a big to step up because they are not deep enough in perimeter talent to play smallball well enough to get an NCAA bid.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham

    more rough times for the ACC

    uva loses, syracuse barely scrapes by bryant, and louisville barely scrapes by seton hall (each 1 point wins)

    Obviously don't want to judge by couple games in this kind of environment, but looking to be an...interesting...year in the ACC this year.
    basketball is back, baby!

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    uva loses, syracuse barely scrapes by bryant, and louisville barely scrapes by seton hall (each 1 point wins)

    Obviously don't want to judge by couple games in this kind of environment, but looking to be an...interesting...year in the ACC this year.
    Quick plug for Clemson, who handled 2 high major teams this week. Granted, their MO would now be to lose to the first cupcake they play but for now, they look like they’ll be a “top half of the ACC” contender.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Longwood tied with Wake at the half.
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    uva loses
    This makes me happy, watching them is depressing.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    uva loses, syracuse barely scrapes by bryant, and louisville barely scrapes by seton hall (each 1 point wins)

    Obviously don't want to judge by couple games in this kind of environment, but looking to be an...interesting...year in the ACC this year.
    Lville's win over Seton Hall is a quality win, imo, but yeah, looks like Cuse hasn't fixed their defensive issues.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    Quick plug for Clemson, who handled 2 high major teams this week. Granted, their MO would now be to lose to the first cupcake they play but for now, they look like they’ll be a “top half of the ACC” contender.
    BC with two quality outings as well.

    Overall, I'd say it's been a wash wrt to good performances vs bad performances by the conference. Still looking like the 3rd-best conference behind the B12 and B10.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    uva loses
    Perhaps they were a bit too cavalier.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Colfax, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Perhaps they were a bit too cavalier.

    Don’t get in a Huff about one UVA loss.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Ga Tech, a team I really thought would be a bit of a contender in the ACC this year, is now off to an 0-2 start after dropping a game to Mercer today, 83-73.

    Now, in fairness to Tech, both Ga State (who beat Tech 2 days ago) and Mercer are fairly strong mid-majors, both ranked in the top 150 by KenPom, but these are still two bad bad losses for a senior-laden team that had its eye on a NCAA bid this season.

    Here is an actual photo of Josh Pastner's seat on the bench during the game...


    -Jason "I'm ready to declare Clemson a contender now... that cool with all ya'll?" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ga Tech, a team I really thought would be a bit of a contender in the ACC this year, is now off to an 0-2 start after dropping a game to Mercer today, 83-73.

    Now, in fairness to Tech, both Ga State (who beat Tech 2 days ago) and Mercer are fairly strong mid-majors, both ranked in the top 150 by KenPom, but these are still two bad bad losses for a senior-laden team that had its eye on a NCAA bid this season.

    Here is an actual photo of Josh Pastner's seat on the bench during the game...


    -Jason "I'm ready to declare Clemson a contender now... that cool with all ya'll?" Evans
    doesn't get much easier with UK, nebraska on the road, and fsu on the road....this could turn into a



    really quickly...
    basketball is back, baby!

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ga Tech, a team I really thought would be a bit of a contender in the ACC this year, is now off to an 0-2 start after dropping a game to Mercer today, 83-73.

    Now, in fairness to Tech, both Ga State (who beat Tech 2 days ago) and Mercer are fairly strong mid-majors, both ranked in the top 150 by KenPom, but these are still two bad bad losses for a senior-laden team that had its eye on a NCAA bid this season.

    Here is an actual photo of Josh Pastner's seat on the bench during the game...


    -Jason "I'm ready to declare Clemson a contender now... that cool with all ya'll?" Evans
    Yikes Pastner.

    Yes to Clemson though! Torvik gives a NCAA tourney birth probability for each team and Clemson has jumped from about 15% to just shy of 50% after their first two games. GT has... gone the opposite direction.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    Yikes Pastner.

    Yes to Clemson though! Torvik gives a NCAA tourney birth probability for each team and Clemson has jumped from about 15% to just shy of 50% after their first two games. GT has... gone the opposite direction.
    with such a crazy season, i have a hard time believing that algorithms trained on (either empirically or genetically) past data will be particularly enlightening. It's a neat stat, don't get me wrong.
    basketball is back, baby!

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    with such a crazy season, i have a hard time believing that algorithms trained on (either empirically or genetically) past data will be particularly enlightening. It's a neat stat, don't get me wrong.
    Oh it’s been a tough year for algorithms and predictions, and even in a normal year it’s too early for these to have any real predictive power. I just happen to appreciate the relative movement of probabilities based on early season performance - even if those probabilities are built off of a system with flawed assumptions they are still an interesting frame of reference to me.

    The particular frame of reference being that we might have been looking a little too far south on I-85 when discussing NCAAT contenders in other threads. I suppose you’re right, we didn’t really need a stat to tell us that, the eye test will do in this case.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "I'm ready to declare Clemson a contender now... that cool with all ya'll?" Evans
    For an NCAA bid, sure. What's striking to me is how relatively few minutes Simms, Newman, and Dawes have played so far (Simms due to foul trouble). Pre-season I would've called them Clemson's "big three" that needs supporting players to step up to get an at-large bid. And yet, Clemson appears to be very deep as Brownell has gone with an 11-man rotation in two competitive games so far. And overall, they rank #7 in the nation in bench minutes according to kenpom

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Down goes Nova. To VT??? Wow!

    Kinda makes up for UVA pooping the bed.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Down goes Nova. To VT??? Wow!

    Kinda makes up for UVA pooping the bed.
    And a ridiculous ending in regulation. VT made a shot and got fouled with 1.3 seconds left to go up one. He tried to miss the FT intentionally but accidentally banked it in (a la RJ) to go up two. Then, on the ensuing inbound possession, Villanova drew a charge call (I assume using the oldest trick in the book by having someone stand still near the baseline while inbounder runs along baseline and defender doesn't pay attention and runs into person standing still). Oddly, the 2 minute highlight video on ESPN doesn't show the play, what?! Nova sinks both FTs to send to OT. Then, Va Tech dominates OT. Pretty good win for scheduling it last minute.

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