Thanks for starting the thread. I’m happy to tabulate as in prior years.
Mods are getting lazy :-). No NBA Mock Draft, no Minutes Contest, no Degenerates League. Just kidding. I'm sure they're understandably busy with stuff.
So I'm going to pitch in by starting this Minutes Contest thread. (Jason Evans, I really would appreciate you starting the Degenerates League, like you always do, though).
Here's how pfrduke laid it out last year (with my edit in [brackets bold underline]):
Thanks for starting the thread. I’m happy to tabulate as in prior years.
Moore= 28
Hurt= 27
Johnson= 27
Roach= 25
Goldwire= 25
Steward= 24
Baker= 15
Tape= 9
Coleman= 9
Williams= 7
Brakefield= 1
Savarino= 1
Worthington= 1
Buckmire = 1
Total= 200 minutes
This is the first year that I can remember that I have no idea of who will be the clear leaders in minutes. I guess that's because of no very high recruits(1-4) but I love playing these games. Even though my fantasy Football team is killing me.
GoDuke!
Gonna try to break this down by time spent at each position, and see if that makes me any better at this game, lol.
The "show your work" section...
PG: Goldwire = 25, Roach = 15
SG: Roach = 7, Steward = 18, Moore = 15
SF: Moore = 15, Baker = 15, Brakefield = 5, Coleman = 2, Johnson = 3
PF: Johnson = 23, Hurt = 11, Coleman = 5, Brakefield = 1
C: Hurt = 15, Tape = 10, Williams = 9, Coleman = 5
Benchwarmers in garbage time: 1 mpg combined
My actual predictions...
Moore: 30
Hurt: 26
Johnson: 26
Goldwire: 25
Roach: 22
Steward: 18
Baker: 15
Coleman: 12
Tape: 10
Williams: 9
Brakefield: 6
Others: 1
As a possible point of interest...
Guys who rose after I saw the positional breakdown:
- Johnson
- Coleman
Guys who fell after I saw it:
- Hurt
- Steward
- Williams
- Tape
Sad, shot-in-the-dark prediction after thinking through this and starting to see 2021 NBA mock drafts... At least one of Brakefield, Coleman, or Williams won't be on next year's roster. Hope I'm wrong!
I am willing to bet that all 3 of those guys were not recruited as 1nDone players, and i am also willing to bet that they think of themselves as multi-year players.
Now, if none of Moore, Hurt, or Tapé leaves (or if only 1 of those 3) then minutes in 3-5 spots get a lot tighter and then i would agree that at least one of the aforementioned trio will transfer.
Even if all of Moore, Hurt, and Tapé leave, the minutes will be hard to come by for at least one of that trio. We are bringing in Griffin and Banchero who will essentially replace Moore and Tape, and quite possibly Baldwin who will essentially replace Hurt.
I am not gonna predict one way or the other on whether one will transfer. But they certainly wouldn’t be the first to do so. That isn’t a slight on them or Duke; it is just the reality of college bball. Not everyone is happy to sit the bench for multiple years these days.
Last edited by -jk; 11-20-2020 at 10:37 PM. Reason: add an apostrophe to Tape to get Tapé
This is where I was coming from, for sure.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope all 3 guys are multi-year players as it would bring great stability to the program. I just think all 3 guys have higher upside than the typical Duke guys who are willing to wait their turn.
I’ll also add, I wasn’t necessarily thinking of a transfer (maybe, though) but I could see one of these guys getting juuuust enough onto the NBA radar to justify going pro after a year for fear of being buried and not showcased for another year.
this crossed my mind when thinking of your post, and someone else on DBR mentioned that Coleman has started to show up on 2021 draft boards, which should be taken with a few shakers of salt. Regardless, Coleman could possibly fit that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist type role, and Mark Williams could prove that old adage that you can't teach 7'1. So yeah, it's possible that either/both of them could exceed our expectations.
To get this thread back on track, here's my prediction, based on very little analysis:
Johnson 27
Moore 26
Roach 24
Hurt 22
Steward 20
Goldwire 20
Tape 14
Brakefield 15
Baker 14
Coleman 11
Williams 8
Moore= 32
Hurt= 27
Johnson= 29
Roach= 14
Goldwire= 32
Steward= 28
Baker= 15
Tape= 3
Coleman= 3
Williams=13
Brakefield= 1
Savarino= 1
Worthington= 1
Buckmire = 1
Total= 200 minutes
I realize that an 8 man rotation is unusual for coach k, but I cant see K cutting Roach or Baker down to garbage time only and Hurt can only play so many minutes at the 5 so 1 of the other bigs will need to be in the rotation - which leaves me at 8...
An 8-man rotation would not be so unusual for K when he has five outstanding perimeter options with little separation, like he has this year. It's what I'd expect based on his past rotations.
A 9-man or 10-man rotation, like many people here seem to be predicting, would be very unusual.
While I agree with you that K doesn't usually play 9 or 10 players in big games, I'm thinking that, as was the case last year, the rotation may vary quite a bit during the course of the season, as players go through ups and downs. So K may only play 8 players in most games, but whose those 8 are may vary from game to game or week to week and at the end of the year it will look like a 10 player rotation.
Oh, I think we will have 10-11 players averaging 10+ minutes per game. In some key games there may be only seven playing this many minutes, with the other guys having "cameo appearances," but I expect to see more players getting minutes than in the past. Kinda like last year, where we had ten players with 330+ minutes in an abbreviated 31-game schedule.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Moore - 30
Johnson - 30
Hurt - 27
Roach - 22
Goldwire - 19
Baker - 16
Steward - 16
Coleman 13
Tape 12
Williams - 11
Brakefield - 4
Spoiler tags in case you guys want to submit an independent entry without cribbing my winning entry below:
Spoiler!
No problem, haha, that was tongue in cheek.
In non-blowouts, I'm giving Wendell about 4 mpg at PF. (If I'm wrong, I think it'll be because I underestimated). He's about 15 lbs heavier than Joey, at least by listed weight.
Yeah, I think we've had the "rotation" discussion before. So, if Henry Coleman plays in almost every competitive game but only averages 6mpg, I still consider that in the rotation.