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  1. #1

    MBB: Minutes Contest 2020-21

    Mods are getting lazy :-). No NBA Mock Draft, no Minutes Contest, no Degenerates League. Just kidding. I'm sure they're understandably busy with stuff.

    So I'm going to pitch in by starting this Minutes Contest thread. (Jason Evans, I really would appreciate you starting the Degenerates League, like you always do, though).


    Here's how pfrduke laid it out last year (with my edit in [brackets bold underline]):

    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the [Gardner Webb game on Wednesday] - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

    Barrett - 35.3
    Jones - 32.4
    Reddish - 28.1
    Williamson - 26.1
    White - 18.8
    Bolden - 17.6
    DeLaurier - 16.3
    O'Connell - 13.3
    Goldwire - 7.9
    Vrankovic - 2.4
    Robinson - 1.5
    Baker - 0.5
    Buckmire - 0.3
    Besser - 0.3


    (careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Thanks for starting the thread. Iím happy to tabulate as in prior years.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Jv's minutes projections for 20-21

    Moore= 28
    Hurt= 27
    Johnson= 27
    Roach= 25
    Goldwire= 25
    Steward= 24
    Baker= 15
    Tape= 9
    Coleman= 9
    Williams= 7
    Brakefield= 1
    Savarino= 1
    Worthington= 1
    Buckmire = 1

    Total= 200 minutes

    This is the first year that I can remember that I have no idea of who will be the clear leaders in minutes. I guess that's because of no very high recruits(1-4) but I love playing these games. Even though my fantasy Football team is killing me.

    GoDuke!

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Moore= 28
    Hurt= 27
    Johnson= 27
    Roach= 25
    Goldwire= 25
    Steward= 24
    Baker= 15
    Tape= 9
    Coleman= 9
    Williams= 7
    Brakefield= 1
    Savarino= 1
    Worthington= 1
    Buckmire = 1

    Total= 200 minutes

    This is the first year that I can remember that I have no idea of who will be the clear leaders in minutes. I guess that's because of no very high recruits(1-4) but I love playing these games. Even though my fantasy Football team is killing me.

    GoDuke!
    This will be the winning entry if college basketball plays its games on Wednesday (e.g. Duke vs Gardner-Webb) and then cancels the season immediately afterwards due to Covid.

    (Well, season cancellation is a factor in the contest this year, according to many!)

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    This will be the winning entry if college basketball plays its games on Wednesday (e.g. Duke vs Gardner-Webb) and then cancels the season immediately afterwards due to Covid.

    (Well, season cancellation is a factor in the contest this year, according to many!)
    You mean because it's the only entry? Because otherwise, I strongly suspect Tapť, Williams, Coleman, and Brakefield will all play more minutes in that game than jv001 predicts for their season averages. Probably Baker too.

  6. #6
    Gonna try to break this down by time spent at each position, and see if that makes me any better at this game, lol.


    The "show your work" section...

    PG: Goldwire = 25, Roach = 15
    SG: Roach = 7, Steward = 18, Moore = 15
    SF: Moore = 15, Baker = 15, Brakefield = 5, Coleman = 2, Johnson = 3
    PF: Johnson = 23, Hurt = 11, Coleman = 5, Brakefield = 1
    C: Hurt = 15, Tape = 10, Williams = 9, Coleman = 5
    Benchwarmers in garbage time: 1 mpg combined

    My actual predictions...
    Moore: 30
    Hurt: 26
    Johnson: 26
    Goldwire: 25
    Roach: 22
    Steward: 18
    Baker: 15
    Coleman: 12
    Tape: 10
    Williams: 9
    Brakefield: 6
    Others: 1


    As a possible point of interest...

    Guys who rose after I saw the positional breakdown:
    • Johnson
    • Coleman



    Guys who fell after I saw it:
    • Hurt
    • Steward
    • Williams
    • Tape



    Sad, shot-in-the-dark prediction after thinking through this and starting to see 2021 NBA mock drafts... At least one of Brakefield, Coleman, or Williams won't be on next year's roster. Hope I'm wrong!

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post


    Sad, shot-in-the-dark prediction after thinking through this and starting to see 2021 NBA mock drafts... At least one of Brakefield, Coleman, or Williams won't be on next year's roster. Hope I'm wrong!
    I am willing to bet that all 3 of those guys were not recruited as 1nDone players, and i am also willing to bet that they think of themselves as multi-year players.
    Now, if none of Moore, Hurt, or Tapť leaves (or if only 1 of those 3) then minutes in 3-5 spots get a lot tighter and then i would agree that at least one of the aforementioned trio will transfer.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I am willing to bet that all 3 of those guys were not recruited as 1nDone players, and i am also willing to bet that they think of themselves as multi-year players.
    Now, if none of Moore, Hurt, or Tapť leaves (or if only 1 of those 3) then minutes in 3-5 spots get a lot tighter and then i would agree that at least one of the aforementioned trio will transfer.
    Even if all of Moore, Hurt, and Tapť leave, the minutes will be hard to come by for at least one of that trio. We are bringing in Griffin and Banchero who will essentially replace Moore and Tape, and quite possibly Baldwin who will essentially replace Hurt.

    I am not gonna predict one way or the other on whether one will transfer. But they certainly wouldn’t be the first to do so. That isn’t a slight on them or Duke; it is just the reality of college bball. Not everyone is happy to sit the bench for multiple years these days.
    Last edited by -jk; 11-20-2020 at 10:37 PM. Reason: add an apostrophe to Tape to get Tapť

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Even if all of Moore, Hurt, and Tapť leave, the minutes will be hard to come by for at least one of that trio. We are bringing in Griffin and Banchero who will essentially replace Moore and Tape, and quite possibly Baldwin who will essentially replace Hurt.

    I am not gonna predict one way or the other on whether one will transfer. But they certainly wouldnít be the first to do so. That isnít a slight on them or Duke; it is just the reality of college bball. Not everyone is happy to sit the bench for multiple years these days.
    This is where I was coming from, for sure.

    Donít get me wrong, I hope all 3 guys are multi-year players as it would bring great stability to the program. I just think all 3 guys have higher upside than the typical Duke guys who are willing to wait their turn.

    Iíll also add, I wasnít necessarily thinking of a transfer (maybe, though) but I could see one of these guys getting juuuust enough onto the NBA radar to justify going pro after a year for fear of being buried and not showcased for another year.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    This is where I was coming from, for sure.

    Donít get me wrong, I hope all 3 guys are multi-year players as it would bring great stability to the program. I just think all 3 guys have higher upside than the typical Duke guys who are willing to wait their turn.

    Iíll also add, I wasnít necessarily thinking of a transfer (maybe, though) but I could see one of these guys getting juuuust enough onto the NBA radar to justify going pro after a year for fear of being buried and not showcased for another year.
    this crossed my mind when thinking of your post, and someone else on DBR mentioned that Coleman has started to show up on 2021 draft boards, which should be taken with a few shakers of salt. Regardless, Coleman could possibly fit that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist type role, and Mark Williams could prove that old adage that you can't teach 7'1. So yeah, it's possible that either/both of them could exceed our expectations.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    My fearless prediction

    To get this thread back on track, here's my prediction, based on very little analysis:

    Johnson 27
    Moore 26
    Roach 24
    Hurt 22
    Steward 20
    Goldwire 20
    Tape 14
    Brakefield 15
    Baker 14
    Coleman 11
    Williams 8

  12. #12
    Moore= 32
    Hurt= 27
    Johnson= 29
    Roach= 14
    Goldwire= 32
    Steward= 28
    Baker= 15
    Tape= 3
    Coleman= 3
    Williams=13
    Brakefield= 1
    Savarino= 1
    Worthington= 1
    Buckmire = 1

    Total= 200 minutes

    I realize that an 8 man rotation is unusual for coach k, but I cant see K cutting Roach or Baker down to garbage time only and Hurt can only play so many minutes at the 5 so 1 of the other bigs will need to be in the rotation - which leaves me at 8...

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by niveklaen View Post
    I realize that an 8 man rotation is unusual for coach k, but I cant see K cutting Roach or Baker down to garbage time only and Hurt can only play so many minutes at the 5 so 1 of the other bigs will need to be in the rotation - which leaves me at 8...
    An 8-man rotation would not be so unusual for K when he has five outstanding perimeter options with little separation, like he has this year. It's what I'd expect based on his past rotations.

    A 9-man or 10-man rotation, like many people here seem to be predicting, would be very unusual.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    I beg to differ

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    An 8-man rotation would not be so unusual for K when he has five outstanding perimeter options with little separation, like he has this year. It's what I'd expect based on his past rotations.

    A 9-man or 10-man rotation, like many people here seem to be predicting, would be very unusual.
    While I agree with you that K doesn't usually play 9 or 10 players in big games, I'm thinking that, as was the case last year, the rotation may vary quite a bit during the course of the season, as players go through ups and downs. So K may only play 8 players in most games, but whose those 8 are may vary from game to game or week to week and at the end of the year it will look like a 10 player rotation.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    While I agree with you that K doesn't usually play 9 or 10 players in big games, I'm thinking that, as was the case last year, the rotation may vary quite a bit during the course of the season, as players go through ups and downs. So K may only play 8 players in most games, but whose those 8 are may vary from game to game or week to week and at the end of the year it will look like a 10 player rotation.
    Oh, I think we will have 10-11 players averaging 10+ minutes per game. In some key games there may be only seven playing this many minutes, with the other guys having "cameo appearances," but I expect to see more players getting minutes than in the past. Kinda like last year, where we had ten players with 330+ minutes in an abbreviated 31-game schedule.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Colfax, NC

    Can't Win if you Don't Enter

    Moore - 30
    Johnson - 30
    Hurt - 27
    Roach - 22
    Goldwire - 19
    Baker - 16
    Steward - 16
    Coleman 13
    Tape 12
    Williams - 11
    Brakefield - 4

  17. #17
    Spoiler tags in case you guys want to submit an independent entry without cribbing my winning entry below:

    Spoiler!

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Spoiler tags in case you guys want to submit an independent entry without cribbing my winning entry below:

    Spoiler!
    Your definition of "rotation" and mine appear to be different.

    Also, you think there will be four minutes per game where the second-biggest guy on the floor will be Baker? (sorry if I gave anything away there)

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Your definition of "rotation" and mine appear to be different.

    Also, you think there will be four minutes per game where the second-biggest guy on the floor will be Baker? (sorry if I gave anything away there)
    No problem, haha, that was tongue in cheek.

    In non-blowouts, I'm giving Wendell about 4 mpg at PF. (If I'm wrong, I think it'll be because I underestimated). He's about 15 lbs heavier than Joey, at least by listed weight.

    Yeah, I think we've had the "rotation" discussion before. So, if Henry Coleman plays in almost every competitive game but only averages 6mpg, I still consider that in the rotation.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    In non-blowouts, I'm giving Wendell about 4 mpg at PF. (If I'm wrong, I think it'll be because I underestimated). He's about 15 lbs heavier than Joey, at least by listed weight.
    I thought this contest was an average of all games, not just non-blowouts. In that case, you're predicting between 116 and 144 minutes at PF for Wendell over the course of the season (assuming none of our games are covid-canceled). That sounds like a lot to me.

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