Duke Baseball 2021 ACC Champions

[richmclean]

Agree that he runner on third should have scored but to say one play caused State to lose is false. State had 27 outs and 9 innings to score a run and failed 27 times. It’s was a team loss and a great team win for duke.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It was mentioned, and it ended up costing them the game... or a tie at the time. The announcers really let him have it about such an obvious inexcusable mental error.

Good analysis from the announcers. They said no coach likes an error, but (to sum up) "Physical ones are excusable. Balls bounce out, gloves miss. But a coach will jump over you all day long on a mental error. Those are inexcusable. Know the game."

[budwom]

Agree that he runner on third should have scored but to say one play caused State to lose is false. State had 27 outs and 9 innings to score a run and failed 27 times. It’s was a team loss and a great team win for duke.

It was just a monumentally boneheaded play, nothing more or less, but it obviously cost them a run and an opportunity to win...

[CameronBornAndBred]

It was just a monumentally boneheaded play, nothing more or less, but it obviously cost them a run and an opportunity to win...

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[jimsumner]

Good showing in Charlotte from the team. Way to go on the first league tournament title since 1961.

I’m seeing Duke projected as a 3 or 4 seed in the Greenville, North Carolina regional hosted by East Carolina in lots of places I’m reading.

1. East Carolina
2. Old Dominion
3. Duke
4. Virginia Commonwealth

I assume you mistyped. No way Duke is a 4 seed. Four seeds are teams from low-major, one-bid conferences. Duke's RPI is in the low 20s, maybe upper teens after today. So, on merit Duke deserves to be a 2 seed. Remember, in theory the two seeds are the teams from 17 through 32. Not only is Duke in that bracket, they are in the top end of that bracket.

But the NCAA has not done Duke baseball any favors and there's no reason to think anything will change tomorrow.

[DoubleBlue]

I assume you mistyped. No way Duke is a 4 seed. Four seeds are teams from low-major, one-bid conferences. Duke's RPI is in the low 20s, maybe upper teens after today. So, on merit Duke deserves to be a 2 seed. Remember, in theory the two seeds are the teams from 17 through 32. Not only is Duke in that bracket, they are in the top end of that bracket.

But the NCAA has not done Duke baseball any favors and there's no reason to think anything will change tomorrow.

Duke's RPI is now 19, and as ACC Champions, they should be an upper 2 seed.

[jimsumner]

Duke's RPI is now 19, and as ACC Champions, they should be an upper 2 seed.

Qualifier duty noted. "Should be."

[CameronDuke]

I assume you mistyped. No way Duke is a 4 seed. Four seeds are teams from low-major, one-bid conferences. Duke's RPI is in the low 20s, maybe upper teens after today. So, on merit Duke deserves to be a 2 seed. Remember, in theory the two seeds are the teams from 17 through 32. Not only is Duke in that bracket, they are in the top end of that bracket.

But the NCAA has not done Duke baseball any favors and there's no reason to think anything will change tomorrow.

That was what I read yesterday on D1Baseball.com, but it will change with Duke winning the ACCT. I see them as a 2-3 seed, hopefully a 2.

And Virginia Commonwealth is the hottest team in the country. They have won 21 in a row and are 37-14. They just won the A10 tournament in Richmond and haven’t lost since April 11th. Their RPI is not as high as Duke’s since VCU plays in the A10 with some terrible teams, but their RPI is 31st in the country. I think they should be a 2 seed, too. They swept UVa this season (RPI of 39) in a pair of midweek games, beat Central Michigan (RPI of 52 and won the MAC Tournament), split with Virginia Tech on the road (RPI of 70) in a pair of midweek games, and split with ODU in a pair of midweek games (RPI of 9). I’d watch out for them in the regionals, it is hard to win 21 games in a row at any level. The last regional they played in was in 2015 when they won the A10 Tournament and went to the Dallas Baptist regional. They ended up winning that regional before losing a pair of games at Miami (Florida) in the super regionals. They’re a legitimate program that I think should be a 2 seed somewhere, too.

[CameronDuke]

Like I said, the projections are changing on D1Baseball.com.

Right now, Duke is a projected 3 seed in the Eugene regional:

1. Oregon
2. Nebraska
3. Duke
4. North Dakota State

[AGDukesky]

FWIW, BaseballAmerica has Duke as a 2 seed in Arizona’s pod

[CameronDuke]

Here are your 16 Regional hosts:

Austin, Texas (Texas) — 42-15
Columbia, S.C. (South Carolina) — 33-21
Eugene, Oregon (Oregon) — 37-14
Fayetteville, Ark. (Arkansas) — 45-10
Fort Worth, Texas (TCU) — 39-17
Gainesville, Fla. (Florida) — 38-20
Greenville, N.C. (East Carolina) — 41-15
Knoxville, Tenn. (Tennessee) — 45-15
Lubbock, Texas (Texas Tech) — 36-15
Nashville, Tenn. (Vanderbilt) — 40-15
Oxford, Miss. (Ole Miss) — 41-19
Ruston, La. (Louisiana Tech) — 40-17
South Bend, Ind. (Notre Dame) — 30-11
Stanford, Calif. (Stanford) — 33-14
Starkville, Miss. (Mississippi State) — 40-15
Tucson, Ariz. (Arizona) — 40-15

[jimsumner]

That was what I read yesterday on D1Baseball.com, but it will change with Duke winning the ACCT. I see them as a 2-3 seed, hopefully a 2.

And Virginia Commonwealth is the hottest team in the country. They have won 21 in a row and are 37-14. They just won the A10 tournament in Richmond and haven’t lost since April 11th. Their RPI is not as high as Duke’s since VCU plays in the A10 with some terrible teams, but their RPI is 31st in the country. I think they should be a 2 seed, too. They swept UVa this season (RPI of 39) in a pair of midweek games, beat Central Michigan (RPI of 52 and won the MAC Tournament), split with Virginia Tech on the road (RPI of 70) in a pair of midweek games, and split with ODU in a pair of midweek games (RPI of 9). I’d watch out for them in the regionals, it is hard to win 21 games in a row at any level. The last regional they played in was in 2015 when they won the A10 Tournament and went to the Dallas Baptist regional. They ended up winning that regional before losing a pair of games at Miami (Florida) in the super regionals. They’re a legitimate program that I think should be a 2 seed somewhere, too.

I'm sorry but you must have misread. I follow this stuff pretty closely. An ACC team being seeded fourth would be analogous to an ACC basketball team being seeded 15th in an NCAA Tournament regional. D1 baseball had Duke as a three seed going into the ACCs and certainly nothing that happened in Charlotte or anywhere else would have dropped Duke to a four.

[CameronDuke]

I'm sorry but you must have misread. I follow this stuff pretty closely. An ACC team being seeded fourth would be analogous to an ACC basketball team being seeded 15th in an NCAA Tournament regional. D1 baseball had Duke as a three seed going into the ACCs and certainly nothing that happened in Charlotte or anywhere else would have dropped Duke to a four.

Yes I agree, I’m pretty sure I saw them projected as a 3 and not a 4 going into the ACCs.

[burnspbesq]

At this point, it seems the most likely outcome is that Duke ends up as a two seed in either Columbia or Greenville—bur I have plenty of Duke masks in case they get sent to Austin or Fort Worth. Lubbock might be too far to go.

[CameronDuke]

At this point, it seems the most likely outcome is that Duke ends up as a two seed in either Columbia or Greenville—bur I have plenty of Duke masks in case they get sent to Austin or Fort Worth. Lubbock might be too far to go.

Baseball America updated their projections about 10 minutes ago. Duke wasn’t projected in either the Columbia or Greenville regional.

Columbia regional

1. Old Dominion (traveling 1 seed since they can’t host a regional)
2. South Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Samford

Greenville regional

1. East Carolina
2. North Carolina State
3. Liberty
4. Norfolk State

Duke is projected as a 2 seed in the Tucson regional most recently:

Tucson regional

1. Arizona
2. Duke
3. Fairfield
4. Grand Canyon

[jimsumner]

For some perspective, the NCAA has sent recent Duke teams to Columbia, Athens and Morgantown. I'd like to keep the trend going and stick reasonably close to home. But, as someone stated upthread, somebody is going to be packing the bags and going out west and I fear it may be Duke's turn.

It will be interesting to see which Triangle school gets sent to ECU. One would think that Duke earned that right this week. Then again, Duke's two outings against the Pirates did not go well for Duke, so maybe we don't want that. Then again, part2, those games were pretty early in the season and Duke is a much better team now.

[coldriver10]

I didn't see where anyone mentioned this (apologies if I just missed it), but analytics have repeatedly shown that taking an out to bunt a guy over is not the higher percentage play. And to attempt a bunt with your CLEANUP hitter, a guy that clearly doesn't feel all that comfortable bunting?! I mean, they had the crowd and the momentum, leadoff runner on, and the manager took the bat out of one of their best hitter's hands. I still can't believe it. To me, that was almost more egregious than the baserunning error.

[DU82]

I didn't see where anyone mentioned this (apologies if I just missed it), but analytics have repeatedly shown that taking an out to bunt a guy over is not the higher percentage play. And to attempt a bunt with your CLEANUP hitter, a guy that clearly doesn't feel all that comfortable bunting?! I mean, they had the crowd and the momentum, leadoff runner on, and the manager took the bat out of one of their best hitter's hands. I still can't believe it. To me, that was almost more egregious than the baserunning error.

I believe a successful sacrifice bunt increases the chance that ONE run scores, but decreases the chance that MULTIPLE runs score. So if you just need one run, it does make sense.

It does have to be successful, so having a batter who is not good at bunting decreases the chance, and therefore the benefit, of scoring a run.

[burnspbesq]

This morning, BA has Duke as the two seed in Greenville. D1baseball.com has Duke as the two seed in Austin.

[roywhite]

Here are your 16 Regional hosts:

Austin, Texas (Texas) — 42-15
Columbia, S.C. (South Carolina) — 33-21
Eugene, Oregon (Oregon) — 37-14
Fayetteville, Ark. (Arkansas) — 45-10
Fort Worth, Texas (TCU) — 39-17
Gainesville, Fla. (Florida) — 38-20
Greenville, N.C. (East Carolina) — 41-15
Knoxville, Tenn. (Tennessee) — 45-15
Lubbock, Texas (Texas Tech) — 36-15
Nashville, Tenn. (Vanderbilt) — 40-15
Oxford, Miss. (Ole Miss) — 41-19
Ruston, La. (Louisiana Tech) — 40-17
South Bend, Ind. (Notre Dame) — 30-11
Stanford, Calif. (Stanford) — 33-14
Starkville, Miss. (Mississippi State) — 40-15
Tucson, Ariz. (Arizona) — 40-15

7 SEC teams as hosts and only one ACC team hosting