Duke Baseball 2021 ACC Champions

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke clinches the #9 seed with the sweep. It is highly likely that our pod will be Miami-FSU-Duke. (4-5-9)

Live RPI is up to #30, which might be enough for us to get in if we go 0-2. I wasn't expecting Clemson to boost our RPI that much.

Crossing fingers we don't test that theory. (I know you are too)

[loran16]

So assuming I understand the baseball tourney format, Duke needs to go 2-0 to advance no matter what due to being the lowest seed in the pod.

[duke2x]

Crossing fingers we don't test that theory. (I know you are too)

I'm miles away from being an expert, but our RPI won't be 29 if we go 0-2 in pool/pod play.

RPI 1-30 get in ~99% of the time.
31-40 get in but do get left out if there's a flaw in the resume. Bad momentum is usually the culprit here.
41+ usually require something in your favor. Duke, Michigan, and FSU fell into this category in 2019. All 3 of them had pretty good runs, and Vanderbilt's 2 NCAA losses came from that group en route to the title.

Duke's flaw is 4-7 ACC weekend series with wins over Pitt (10), Clemson (11), VT (12), and Wake (NA). There's a lot to balance that out in terms of good momentum and consistent non-conference play.

This is the live RPI site I use if you're interested: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2021/rpi-nitty

[duke2x]

So assuming I understand the baseball tourney format, Duke needs to go 2-0 to advance no matter what due to being the lowest seed in the pod.

Correct, but the same applies for FSU. A tie goes to Miami.

[duke2x]

Duke draws two 11AM games on W/Th.

https://theacc.com/news/2021/5/23/sc...mpionship.aspx

[chrishoke]

I'm glad we play on off-days for the heels, particularly since the tournament is in Charlotte.

[duke2x]

I'm glad we play on off-days for the heels, particularly since the tournament is in Charlotte.

It's not usually a problem for baseball. You won't see 1,000 people there for the Duke game at 11 AM. You might not see 500.

[BlueDevil2K]

And again, this year, we have the world's dumbest bracket for the ACC baseball tournament. Why do the powers that be insist on continuing this format year after year? We have:

- Four play-in games (5 vs. 9, 6 vs. 10, 7 vs. 11, 8 vs. 12)
- Four quarterfinals (1-4 vs. winners of play-in games)
- Four meaningless exhibition games (1-4 vs. losers of play-in games)
- Semifinals
- Finals

We know *right now* that the Clemson-GT game tomorrow night is irrelevant, as it's the #2 vs. the loser of 7 vs. 11 (the 11, in this case). The winner of Louisville-GT will go to the semifinals...guaranteed. If Louisville wins, their 2-0 and win the pool. If GT wins, they can do no worse than 1-1, Louisville will be 1-1, and Clemson can do no better than 1-1. If all three teams go 1-1, GT advances. We do this four times, for...what reason? If the goal is to ensure that every team gets to play 2 games in the tournament, then let the losers of the play-in games play. The tournament selection committee won't be fooled by a bubble team going 1-1 in the tournament due to winning an exhibition game against an eventual semifinalist...

It's obvious that the creators of this bracket know what they're doing, because they play the 4 play-in games first, allowing the four top seeds to know which game matters and which doesn't. If they wanted the top seeds to take both of their games seriously, they'd play the play-in games last. But they don't...

In addition, what's with having 5 vs. 9 rather than 5 vs. 12 like every other reasonable bracketed tournament? Why reward the #1 seed with the weakest play-in favorite *and* the weakest play-in underdog? They're the #1 seed - they should be able to beat anybody.

Also, get off my lawn!

[DoubleBlue]

We know *right now* that the Clemson-GT game tomorrow night is irrelevant, as it's the #2 vs. the loser of 7 vs. 11 (the 11, in this case). The winner of Louisville-GT will go to the semifinals...guaranteed.

If Clemson beats Louisville and then beats GT, they're 2-0 and they win the pod... how is either game irrelevant? Clemson advances. Where is there a play-in game?

[chrishoke]

If Clemson beats Louisville and then beats GT, they're 2-0 and they win the pod... how is either game irrelevant? Clemson advances. Where is there a play-in game?

Louisville beat Clemson 15-10 this morning. That's why the Clemson GT game doesn't matter.

[DoubleBlue]

Louisville beat Clemson 15-10 this morning. That's why the Clemson GT game doesn't matter.

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. But the bigger issue is whether any of the games are irrelevant. My understanding is that all 12 teams have an equal opportunity for 2 wins to win their pool. The only tie situation is if all three teams in a pool go 1-1, then the highest seed advances.

[chrishoke]

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. But the bigger issue is whether any of the games are irrelevant. My understanding is that all 12 teams have an equal opportunity for 2 wins to win their pool. The only tie situation is if all three teams in a pool go 1-1, then the highest seed advances.

If Duke loses to FSU tomorrow, they are eliminated. Their next game, against Miami is irrelevant.

[DU82]

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. But the bigger issue is whether any of the games are irrelevant. My understanding is that all 12 teams have an equal opportunity for 2 wins to win their pool. The only tie situation is if all three teams in a pool go 1-1, then the highest seed advances.

Once the third seed loses to the second seed (assuming it’s the first game of the pod), the game between one and three is irrelevant. The second seed has to win the one-two game, or else the one seed advances regardless of what happens in the one-three game.

[BlueDevil2K]

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. But the bigger issue is whether any of the games are irrelevant. My understanding is that all 12 teams have an equal opportunity for 2 wins to win their pool. The only tie situation is if all three teams in a pool go 1-1, then the highest seed advances.

This morning, there were two possibilities:

1) Louisville defeats Clemson. (This happened...) - Louisville-GT matters, Clemson-GT is irrelevant
2) Clemson defeats Louisville. (This didn't...) - Clemson-GT matters, Louisville-GT is irelevant

It's exactly because of the scenario where all three teams go 1-1 that one of these games must be irrelevant. There are only two possibilities:

1) One team goes 2-0, one goes 1-1, and one goes 0-2. The team that goes 2-0 advances.
2) All three teams go 1-1. The high seed advances.

If Louisville defeats GT, we have scenario 1, and Louisville advances.
If GT defeats Louisville, either:
- GT defeats Clemson (scenario 1), and GT advances
- Clemson defeats GT (scenario 2), and GT advances

Therefore the Clemson-GT game is irrelevant. Because of the set-up of the tournament, this must happen four times. So, so dumb...

ETA: Just to clarify...this morning, we didn't know which 4 games would be irrelevant, just that there would be 4 of them. Tomorrow at 3 PM, we'll know which 4 games of the 8 pool play games that are yet to be played are irrelevant.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

If Duke loses to FSU tomorrow, they are eliminated. Their next game, against Miami is irrelevant.

It is irrelevant from an ACC Tournament perspective but obviously could be relevant from an NCAA Tournament selection perspective.

[BlueDevil2K]

It is irrelevant from an ACC Tournament perspective but obviously could be relevant from an NCAA Tournament selection perspective.

Sure, and I mentioned that above. But it's really unfair to Miami to make them play that game (and burn some of their pitching). I do believe that the only sensible rationale here is that Miami might (should?) tank in such a scenario and give Duke another quality win, but is the selection committee that gullible?

[jimsumner]

It is irrelevant from an ACC Tournament perspective but obviously could be relevant from an NCAA Tournament selection perspective.

Absolutely. Duke needs one win to feel good about its NCAA-Tournament chances. A loss tomorrow and a loss Thursday is very different than a loss tomorrow and a win Thursday, Very, very different.

[BlueDevil2K]

Absolutely. Duke needs one win to feel good about its NCAA-Tournament chances. A loss tomorrow and a loss Thursday is very different than a loss tomorrow and a win Thursday, Very, very different.

I actually agree with that. It may benefit Duke this year, but I still think the construction of this tournament is fundamentally flawed. If you want to maintain the whole top four seeds get in with 1-1 records thing, fine (I guess), but at least make the Duke-FSU game 3rd so that Miami has to take both of their first two games seriously...

[jimsumner]

I actually agree with that. It may benefit Duke this year, but I still think the construction of this tournament is fundamentally flawed. If you want to maintain the whole top four seeds get in with 1-1 records thing, fine (I guess), but at least make the Duke-FSU game 3rd so that Miami has to take both of their first two games seriously...

I agree. The ACC has come up with a different formats every few years and nobody is completely happy with any of them. For the record, ACC coaches are adamantly opposed to double-elimantion because then don't want to shred their pitching staffs the week before the NCAAs.

[75Crazie]

So ... do we really need a conference baseball tournament? The nature of baseball, with the heavy load placed on pitchers, to me does not seem to lend itself to a tournament that is not a season-ending event. There are enough games played as it is during the year to be adequate for determining a conference winner and also for determining NCAA tournament spots.