Football: Succession Planning II

[uh_no]

So, lots of people on this thread and others say that it's not fair to ask what coach we could get if Cut has run his course.

How on earth is it not reasonable to ask "who would be the replacement?" It's really a quite responsible consideration. It seems ridiculous to let someone go without some sort of idea of who would be the next coach. Not something on paper or even a handshake agreement, but some sense of who your candidates would be and if there is shared interest.

Firing Cut during this sideways season in a FUBAR year would have ramifications.

The department would almost ALWAYS know who is interested. Cutcliffe could leave of his own volition at any time, and they'd need to fill the position. These guys talk. They know who is interested and who is on their short list at any given time.

[devildeac]

There is very little that I'd disagree with any of what you wrote. I've just settled in my mind that moving on is the right call. (Unless he somehow comes up with a miracle worker OC.)

Ozzie, are you still available?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The department would almost ALWAYS know who is interested. Cutcliffe could leave of his own volition at any time, and they'd need to fill the position. These guys talk. They know who is interested and who is on their short list at any given time.

So it is reasonable to assume there's a shortlist out there at all times? Of guys who would be a better fit than Cut?

[uh_no]

So it is reasonable to assume there's a shortlist out there at all times? Of guys who would be a better fit than Cut?

do they always have a list? I'd imagine so. Whether the individuals on that list are a "better fit" depends on the year...probably none of them would be considered a "better fit" when we were, say, winning the division. Right now, the bar is pretty low.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Would you take the OC job right now? I wouldn't leave an existing job to work for a head coach who has very little job security unless I was given a 3+ year guarantee.

Coach is 66. It would be great if we could hire a top notch OC as a "coach in waiting" for a year or two from now. But I highly doubt that would happen.

Yes, I would . But I'm not qualified to design a complete offense. But I do feel qualified to call some of the plays within a well designed offense.

[AustinDevil]

So, lots of people on this thread and others say that it's not fair to ask what coach we could get if Cut has run his course.

How on earth is it not reasonable to ask "who would be the replacement?" It's really a quite responsible consideration. It seems ridiculous to let someone go without some sort of idea of who would be the next coach. Not something on paper or even a handshake agreement, but some sense of who your candidates would be and if there is shared interest.

Firing Cut during this sideways season in a FUBAR year would have ramifications.

No one is saying it's not reasonable to ask what coach we might get, in terms of likely candidates and potential mutual interest. budwom already answered this in this thread (Clawson/MAC), and it's been answered countless other times in other threads when people insist that Duke is so unappealing that we'll never recover from firing a coach.

What truly isn't reasonable is to demand to know the identity of one or more specific new-head-coach confirmed candidates in public at this point in time, which is pretty close to how some of the "Keep Cut" demands have been stated.

[Acymetric]

So, lots of people on this thread and others say that it's not fair to ask what coach we could get if Cut has run his course.

How on earth is it not reasonable to ask "who would be the replacement?" It's really a quite responsible consideration. It seems ridiculous to let someone go without some sort of idea of who would be the next coach. Not something on paper or even a handshake agreement, but some sense of who your candidates would be and if there is shared interest.

Firing Cut during this sideways season in a FUBAR year would have ramifications.

The department would almost ALWAYS know who is interested. Cutcliffe could leave of his own volition at any time, and they'd need to fill the position. These guys talk. They know who is interested and who is on their short list at any given time.

Right. Kevin White should absolutely have the answer to the question Mtn Devil is asking (although I don't have a whole lot of respect for White so it wouldn't be totally shocking to me if he didn't). As fans, we can just speculate on who might be interested and might be a good fit, obviously none of us are involved in actually putting together such a list for the school (and if anyone here is involved in such a thing, they almost certainly wouldn't share that information publicly here). And people have responded every time this issue is raised with examples of guys that would probably take the job/pay raise, or schools that hired good coaches that Duke should be able to compete with if we targeted the same coach (better pay, better conference, etc). And yet the same people keep ringing the bell over and over again. It is a little tiresome.

Duke can hire a quality head coach when we move on from Cut.

There is absolutely no good reason to question this. There is good reason to question whether Cut is still a quality coach/program manager.

[uh_no]

Right. Kevin White should absolutely have the answer to the question Mtn Devil is asking (although I don't have a whole lot of respect for White so it wouldn't be totally shocking to me if he didn't). As fans, we can just speculate on who might be interested and might be a good fit, obviously none of us are involved in actually putting together such a list for the school (and if anyone here is involved in such a thing, they almost certainly wouldn't share that information publicly here). And people have responded every time this issue is raised with examples of guys that would probably take the job/pay raise, or schools that hired good coaches that Duke should be able to compete with if we targeted the same coach (better pay, better conference, etc). And yet the same people keep ringing the bell over and over again. It is a little tiresome.

Duke can hire a quality head coach when we move on from Cut.

There is absolutely no good reason to question this. There is good reason to question whether Cut is still a quality coach/program manager.

contingency planning for critical employees is basic business, especially one of the size of the athletics department. While I wouldn't say that the department is a well oiled machine, I'm not sure it raises to the level of incompetence where they wouldn't be doing even that.

[hallcity]

do they always have a list? I'd imagine so. Whether the individuals on that list are a "better fit" depends on the year...probably none of them would be considered a "better fit" when we were, say, winning the division. Right now, the bar is pretty low.

Actually, for major hires athletic departments almost always employ consulting firms that make this sort of thing their business. They are the ones with the lists. Todd Turner's company is one that the Duke Athletic Department might hire.

[budwom]

No one is saying it's not reasonable to ask what coach we might get, in terms of likely candidates and potential mutual interest. budwom already answered this in this thread (Clawson/MAC), and it's been answered countless other times in other threads when people insist that Duke is so unappealing that we'll never recover from firing a coach.

What truly isn't reasonable is to demand to know the identity of one or more specific new-head-coach confirmed candidates in public at this point in time, which is pretty close to how some of the "Keep Cut" demands have been stated.

Indeed. Clawson came from the MAC as did Doeren at State who is doing a good job. I think it's still true that no coach in the MAC makes a million bucks/year, so Duke offering in the Cut range (2.66M) would certainly get some attention.
The Coastal Carolina guy is going to draw a lot of interest. In fact there are consultants who specialize in coach searches, they're very up to date on who the rising stars are, who may or may not have issues of note, etc. (I now see my pal hallcity just mentioned this)
And some other (premium) boards have explicitly mentioned some high profile people who have expressed an interest in the Duke job should it open up.

Of course, who knows what White is thinking..I'm sure he and Cut will have a post season chat as always, especially since Cut has only two years left on his deal, and that's when extensions are often requested and granted.

[arnie]

Actually, for major hires athletic departments almost always employ consulting firms that make this sort of thing their business. They are the ones with the lists. Todd Turner's company is one that the Duke Athletic Department might hire.

Except when the Admiral hired Franks/Roof. Either no one told Alleva about consulting firms or these hires weren’t considered “major”.😡

[Acymetric]

Except when the Admiral hired Franks/Roof. Either no one told Alleva about consulting firms or these hires weren’t considered “major”.��

Alleva might be the only AD with a worse track record of football coaching moves than Kevin White (Alleva gets 0 credit for hiring Cut, something some of the major donors apparently had to shove down his throat when he was looking at going for...Dorrell or Houston Nutt I think?).

[budwom]

Except when the Admiral hired Franks/Roof. Either no one told Alleva about consulting firms or these hires weren’t considered “major”.😡

of course back in those days, the administration still wouldn't fund football (Nan hated football) so for the $500,000 or so we could afford to pay our next coach, the list of candidates was not especially long.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Duke can hire a quality head coach when we move on from Cut.

There is absolutely no good reason to question this. There is good reason to question whether Cut is still a quality coach/program manager.

There is plenty of reason to question this. There will be other jobs open, and Duke will be far from the top of the food chain. Again, 9 wins combined in the 7 years before Cut. 2 bowl appearances and 0 bowl wins in the 47 years before Cut. And, we would have just fired a coach who made 6 bowl games with 3 bowl wins in 9 years. Other than Spurrier, Duke has been a dead end for head coaching careers for decades. I believe even Cut has said almost everyone advised him against taking the Duke job. Most neutral, third-party observes would probably rank Duke at or very near the bottom of Power 5 football jobs and below a number of non-Power 5 jobs. I love Duke and want it to win, but that's reality. If we get our Walsh and Elway, great, but it easily could be worse than the Cut era.

[AustinDevil]

There is plenty of reason to question this. There will be other jobs open, and Duke will be far from the top of the food chain. Again, 9 wins combined in the 7 years before Cut. 2 bowl appearances and 0 bowl wins in the 47 years before Cut. And, we would have just fired a coach who made 6 bowl games with 3 bowl wins in 9 years. Other than Spurrier, Duke has been a dead end for head coaching careers for decades. I believe even Cut has said almost everyone advised him against taking the Duke job. Most neutral, third-party observes would probably rank Duke at or very near the bottom of Power 5 football jobs and below a number of non-Power 5 jobs. I love Duke and want it to win, but that's reality. If we get our Walsh and Elway, great, but it easily could be worse than the Cut era.

Virtually everything you are using to make your argument is from the time before Duke actually committed real dollars to football, and before Cut actually showed that it was possible to compete and win here. Was Wake at the top of the food chain when they hired Clawson? No, but they got a good coach anyway. Hell, was Duke at the top of the food chain when we hired Cut? Also no.

This is not rational thought, just "we once were the most pathetic program and so we should continue behaving like we are still the most pathetic program."

[LasVegas]

Virtually everything you are using to make your argument is from the time before Duke actually committed real dollars to football, and before Cut actually showed that it was possible to compete and win here. Was Wake at the top of the food chain when they hired Clawson? No, but they got a good coach anyway. Hell, was Duke at the top of the food chain when we hired Cut? Also no.

This is not rational thought, just "we once were the most pathetic program and so we should continue behaving like we are still the most pathetic program."

And would any coach/person pass up the chance to go from making $600,000 to $2,000,000?

[uh_no]

And would any coach/person pass up the chance to go from making $600,000 to $2,000,000?

no of course not! Duke is not going to win a national title, so why would I take a 4x pay increase to coach them?

[Acymetric]

And would any coach/person pass up the chance to go from making $600,000 to $2,000,000?

Realistically our next coach will probably be making more like $3,000,000 or so.

[TKG]

Realistically our next coach will probably be making more like $3,000,000 or so.

And what should we expect as a reasonable return on such compensation? .500 in conference? Top 25?

[DukeDad02]

Actually, for major hires athletic departments almost always employ consulting firms that make this sort of thing their business. They are the ones with the lists. Todd Turner's company is one that the Duke Athletic Department might hire.

Turner's firm was hired for the DWBB Search and the result was outstanding https://collegiatesportsassociates.c...us-placements/