Football: Succession Planning II

[Phredd3]

On a similar note regarding pro-level players, how many WNBA players have we had in the past 13 season?

The fix for that is currently under way.

[budwom]

You don't need sure-fire NFL prospects to not lose 59-0 to wake forest, or VT missing half their team. We have talent to win ACC games. championships? maybe not.

no argument there at all! We have totally collapsed in all too many games....I see a talent deficit, but certainly not to that extent...

[DU82]

The fix for that is currently under way.

The point I was trying to make was that over 13 years of Coach P, we had 15 WNBA draft picks. That’s one of the highest numbers in the country. So, it wasn’t the talent that was lacking, as most said here, it was the coaching.

Football probably needs more than 3-4 NFL prospects on the team to be a title contender (probably at least that many per class) but talent isn’t completely lacking.

[Phredd3]

The point I was trying to make was that over 13 years of Coach P, we had 15 WNBA draft picks. That’s one of the highest numbers in the country. So, it wasn’t the talent that was lacking, as most said here, it was the coaching.

I understood your point. I re-emphasize that the fix for that is currently under way.

[DU82]

I understood your point. I re-emphasize that the fix for that is currently under way.

And now I understand YOUR point.

[uh_no]

The point I was trying to make was that over 13 years of Coach P, we had 15 WNBA draft picks. That’s one of the highest numbers in the country. So, it wasn’t the talent that was lacking, as most said here, it was the coaching.

Football probably needs more than 3-4 NFL prospects on the team to be a title contender (probably at least that many per class) but talent isn’t completely lacking.

i would be curious about the distribution of WNBA picks on F4 and title teams...though I imagine it's not orders of magnitude higher. Probably 20-30 for connecticut (just looked it's 23, and I'd bet that's the highest).

Duke has had more picks than ND. Stanford is at 20. Baylor seems at like 13.

So at the very least, duke is around top-5 in WNBA picks over that period.

[English]

I dunno. Can anyone name four sure fire NFL prospects on this team? Three? Given our offense, it's hard to tell, but I really don't see much.

I went down the rabbit hole yesterday when I initially posted about multiple Duke players in mocks, and there were a handful of draft sites of varying degrees of repute that stood out citing Duke players in their seven round projections: Rumph II (typically first), Dimukeje (Rd ~4), Noah Gray (Rd ~6).

Jack Wohlabaugh was among the players mentioned in preseason mocks, before he announced he's coming back to Duke for 2021 after his injury.

[Kfanarmy]

I don't think many people would dispute that the football team is, basically, terrible this year. But I guess the more important question(s) is - are we terrible because of Covid-related issues (that should affect other schools too); lack of talent on the field (poor recruiting the past few years); or just bad coaching? I have no clue what that answer may be.

I'll take a stab at answering this. What is the real measure of a football program in the NCAA this year? a 10 win season? a winning season? making the playoffs? Continuity and to give the fans and the players some sort of season?
I'd argue the latter. I think it is a bit unethical to evaluate any NCAA team, players, coaches, and yes the fans, on the Ws and Ls this year. I'm not even sure the conditions at any two schools are the same.

Superior talent is going to fare better than lesser talent when repetition, education and in-game discipline are in short supply, a major result of an extremely short preseason. That short list at the top who have gotten top tier talent over the past five years have an even greater advantage I'd guess.

Is the program broke? How can you tell? Each has nuances that make it more or less complicated to learn. Each is taught and practiced differently. Were any designed to fit the short preseason, campus restraints, travel restraints, testing protocols, etc.?

What about the coach? In getting hired, did he tout a skill set that would insure winning through a short preseason, with a transfer QB in his first year and all of this other chaos?

FWIW, I think they all get as much of a pass as we can have the grace to give this year. Yes some are going to win and others are going to lose, but I'm not sure it has much to do with what would have happened in a "normal" year. Maybe Duke would be right where it is, but maybe they'd be vying for the ACC championship. I'm just glad there are games being played this year; that young people are for the most part pretty resilient to this disease and that those who aren't can still watch live college football from the safe confines of home.

My opinion on the Press handling of these events is quite another story.

[AustinDevil]

I'll take a stab at answering this. What is the real measure of a football program in the NCAA this year? a 10 win season? a winning season? making the playoffs? Continuity and to give the fans and the players some sort of season?
I'd argue the latter. I think it is a bit unethical to evaluate any NCAA team, players, coaches, and yes the fans, on the Ws and Ls this year. I'm not even sure the conditions at any two schools are the same.

Superior talent is going to fare better than lesser talent when repetition, education and in-game discipline are in short supply, a major result of an extremely short preseason. That short list at the top who have gotten top tier talent over the past five years have an even greater advantage I'd guess.

Is the program broke? How can you tell? Each has nuances that make it more or less complicated to learn. Each is taught and practiced differently. Were any designed to fit the short preseason, campus restraints, travel restraints, testing protocols, etc.?

What about the coach? In getting hired, did he tout a skill set that would insure winning through a short preseason, with a transfer QB in his first year and all of this other chaos?

FWIW, I think they all get as much of a pass as we can have the grace to give this year. Yes some are going to win and others are going to lose, but I'm not sure it has much to do with what would have happened in a "normal" year. Maybe Duke would be right where it is, but maybe they'd be vying for the ACC championship. I'm just glad there are games being played this year; that young people are for the most part pretty resilient to this disease and that those who aren't can still watch live college football from the safe confines of home.

My opinion on the Press handling of these events is quite another story.

I mean, thanks for this, but it's just a rehash of Cut defenses that have been stated ad nauseam in this thread and elsewhere. And again, you're focusing solely on "But COVID," as if Duke Football 2020 is some sort of aberration. It's not. It's a continued, downward regression.

[budwom]

anyway...at some point relatively soon (within one or two years) White will be confronted with either a Cut request for a contract extension (because that's standard fare for a head coach these days) or they'll talk about transition...

[TruBlu]

Wake is favored by 4 points this Saturday. Did someone leave off a ‘0’ when they came up with that?

[budwom]

Wake is favored by 4 points this Saturday. Did someone leave off a ‘0’ when they came up with that?

The oddsmakers evidently looked at our unc score and failed to realize how misleading that really was...Wake will score a lot, maybe we will as well given how Wake's defense just totally collapsed vs unc...but four points looks silly low.

[chrishoke]

Wake is favored by 4 points this Saturday. Did someone leave off a ‘0’ when they came up with that?

Easy money. Wake's delayed RPO action will totally befuddle our beleaguered defense.

[Phredd3]

Wake is favored by 4 points this Saturday. Did someone leave off a ‘0’ when they came up with that?

I think there's a 50-50 chance that the final result will be equidistant or closer to 40 than to 4.

[arnie]

I think there's a 50-50 chance that the final result will be equidistant or closer to 40 than to 4.

Yep, bet the farm on the Deacons.

[hustleplays]

Coach Cut isn’t going anywhere until he decides to. Any fair-minded Duke fan who remembers the pre-Cut days, or even the early Cut days, would agree. Ignorance is bliss, but the Duke athletic department isn’t ignorant.

ScottDuke8,

Go Maize and Blue! That is not totally snarky, since I was born in Dearborn MI, and my first childhood football helmet was a Wolverine fiberboard model...and one of my most precious childhood possessions. I loved the maize and blue stripes and they gave me unwarranted confidence as I entered our neighborhood scrums. And, I was pained by the hurt that the Badgers laid on the Wolverines. I digress, but not totally, in that I am signaling that I'm not rebutting with adversarial intent. That said, your post puzzles and disappointments me, given your past highly informed and insightful posts, [thank you]. We all have profited from a robust discussion of whether Coach Cut [whom I greatly admire as a person and coach, and for whose contributions I am deeply grateful] should be replaced.

Yet you write: "Cut isn't going anywhere until he decides to." Is this a descriptive or normative assertion? As a descriptive statement, do you know from inside information, or from your own best judgment, that he in fact has the final say? That is a very strong and important statement. Do you know that he has the same clout as Joe Paterno who decided to stay on as long as he wanted to, even though his teams over the last several years became mediocre, vestigial remnants of PSU football? [I happened to live in PA during these years, and I tried to convince one of my engineering sons to consider PSU, since they were far better in Mech Engineering than Duke, and FAR less expensive. Alas, watching several years of PSU football wasn't helpful. He chose Duke, even though Roof was the coach. Go figure and I digress]

Normatively, do you agree that a Coach should be able to dictate his own tenure, regardless of performance? What are your underlying criteria and principles? Why should the viewpoint, preference and self-interest of one person determine the mission success probabilities of a major institution with profound stakeholder interests? As a management consultant for several decades, I can assert without qualification that mission-directed leaders and organizations value the mission foremost, and everyone's individual stakes must be subordinate. In fact, it is one of the most differentiating characteristics between a mission-directed, excellent organization and mediocre organizations -- whether they prioritize mission over any individual's interests and judgment. If Coach Cut decides to stay on the basis of his own preferences, that conflicts with his espoused values. More subtly, if he reserves to himself the ultimate judgment as to whether he should stay, that is also an abdication of his values and of his responsibility to the Duke community. Cut doesn't let any player decide his options, his position, his level on the depth chart and on his playing time. Not only would that create anarchy, it would be a violation of responsible leadership. Et tu, Coach Cut?

You write: "Any fair-minded Duke fan who remembers the pre-Cut days, or even the early Cut days, would agree." Really? After all the discussion on this board -- and even without it -- you are viewing all of us who disagree with you as not being fair-minded? This is not one of your best moments, IMNSHO. In case I need to spell it out, we disagree that superior performance, and exemplary professional and personal leadership, warrant a pass in perpetuity to continue in an executive position when one's performance has been consistently diminishing.

You write: "Ignorance is bliss, but the Duke athletic department isn’t ignorant" The implication is that we who disagree with you are ignorant and blissful. Pretty sure that we who disagree with you aren't ignorant, we disagree on the right response to a declining Coach and program. And speaking for myself, feeling blissful about this situation is not remotely how I would characterize my mental and emotional state. To cite just one example of my less than blissful state: With what mindset do I contemplate watching our game against WF? Looking forward to a great football game? [can't quite get there, pushing aside all of my ignorance] Hope for a decent game, look for specific positives, but without any realistic expectation of a W: [okay, I may be able to do that, and I will be thrilled and grateful for a well-played game, regardless of a W] Thank Coach Cut, sincerely, for upgrading the program big time since dog breath days, but not expecting a well-played, well-coached game [including something other than mind-numbingly pedestrian, offensive play-calling and porous defense]? This expectation, IMNSHO opinion would be disrespectful to Coach Cut.

One of Duke's espoused values is "Excellence." This is one of Duke's "moments of truth."

Go Wolverines! Go Duke!

[Kfanarmy]

I mean, thanks for this, but it's just a rehash of Cut defenses that have been stated ad nauseam in this thread and elsewhere. And again, you're focusing solely on "But COVID," as if Duke Football 2020 is some sort of aberration. It's not. It's a continued, downward regression.

A cute attempt at dismissing someone else's viewpoint. I actually don't think I repeated much of anyone else's post, but am willing to read the specific examples if you can cite them. I'm also willing to read your refutations or any unique positions you've taken on the matter.

I'm not defending the coach, because I don't think he or any other team that is struggling this season needs to be defended.

[AustinDevil]

A cute attempt at dismissing someone else's viewpoint. I actually don't think I repeated much of anyone else's post, but am willing to read the specific examples if you can cite them. I'm also willing to read your refutations or any unique positions you've taken on the matter.

I'm not defending the coach, because I don't think he or any other team that is struggling this season needs to be defended.

Your post was lengthy, but had one overarching point: COVID has upended this season in indeterminate and ultimately unknowable ways. And so Cut and Duke football overall get a pass.

Because you asked, these posts preceded yours:

Yea, this has not been a great year for Duke football but the pandemic has screwed up all of college life and college athletics for almost everyone. And with 30 million people thrown of work and over 250,000 now dead, who really cares about the W-L record of Duke football. I'm certainly willing to give him a "pass" (no pun intended) for this year.

People need to calm down and realize we are still in a pandemic. Now maybe we haven't executed as well but we haven't practiced in a normal fashion. This is a lost year because of the virus. The program and school have lost millions of dollars and the team is fighting as if their hands are tied behind their backs. We are not the only team that is playing poorly. I don't like to hear excuses and if this were a normal year, talking about Cut's failures would be front and center.

Yeah, to me this whole season is a series of exhibition games. Now, if Duke performs very poorly next year in a "real" season, I think it's reasonable to have this talk.

[budwom]

Best of luck to those who think Duke football will perform better in a post pandemic environment. If anything, we've been less affected than most teams, and our underlying problems (beaten to death on this thread already) remain unresolved.

But optimism is a good thing, so you never know.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Our OOC schedule typically has three wins a year built in.

Next season, assuming things are back to normal which is far from certain, we play Charlotte, NC A&T, Kansas and Northwestern. Winning three of four is reasonable expectation.

Just revisiting this because today Northwestern earned their highest ranking in 24 years, clocking in at #11. They are another program that I would think would be comparable to Duke considering their academics.