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  1. #1

    MBB Dork Polls 2020-21

    At a most interesting time, KenPom dropped his initial 2021 season rankings and Duke looks very good at #3.

    Duke is 4th in AdjO and 6th at AdjD with a pretty fast tempo, ranked 38th.

    Overall, Duke is a hair behind Baylor and Gonzaga and the only ACC team in the top 10.


    https://www.kenpom.com

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    I can't link to it because it's behind a paywall. But someone I trust has told me that KenPom came out with his first estimate for homecourt advantage this season, and it's 2.25 points. (Obviously different places/arenas will have slightly different advantages; 2.25 is just the average).

    So, yeah, if in non-Covid seasons, the homecourt advantage is about 3.5 (the most popular estimate, although sometimes I see it as low as 3.1), then so far, HCA is still about 60-65% as strong as it was before, i.e. the impact of fans (and their impact on refs) is less than half of HCA. Pretty much what I expected in the preseason. Now that's a decent amount to slice off, but things like sight lines, no travel, etc. still represent the majority of HCA.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I can't link to it because it's behind a paywall. But someone I trust has told me that KenPom came out with his first estimate for homecourt advantage this season, and it's 2.25 points. (Obviously different places/arenas will have slightly different advantages; 2.25 is just the average).

    So, yeah, if in non-Covid seasons, the homecourt advantage is about 3.5 (the most popular estimate, although sometimes I see it as low as 3.1), then so far, HCA is still about 60-65% as strong as it was before, i.e. the impact of fans (and their impact on refs) is less than half of HCA. Pretty much what I expected in the preseason. Now that's a decent amount to slice off, but things like sight lines, no travel, etc. still represent the majority of HCA.
    Very interesting. I suspect we will have an even better idea of HCA without fans once conference play picks up.

    In fact, some conferences have dramatically altered their schedules in a way which should facilitate excellent estimates of HCA without fans. Consider the Patriot league which has decided to significantly adapt conference play from the usual round robin. Here is Boston University's entire schedule for the 2021 season. BU plays 2 games vs Lafayette, 4 games vs Army, 4 games vs Colgate, and 6 games vs Holy Cross.

    Date Opponent Location
    Sat Jan 2 Holy Cross Away
    Sun Jan 3 Holy Cross Home
    Sat Jan 9 Colgate Home
    Sun Jan 10 Colgate Home
    Sat Jan 16 Army Home
    Sun Jan 17 Army Home
    Sat Jan 23 Lafayette Away
    Sun Jan 24 Lafayette Away
    Sat Jan 30 Holy Cross Away
    Sun Jan 31 Holy Cross Home
    Sat Feb 6 Colgate Away
    Sun Feb 7 Colgate Away
    Sat Feb 13 Army Away
    Sun Feb 14 Army Away
    Sat Feb 20 Holy Cross Home
    Sun Feb 21 Holy Cross Away

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I can't link to it because it's behind a paywall. But someone I trust has told me that KenPom came out with his first estimate for homecourt advantage this season, and it's 2.25 points. (Obviously different places/arenas will have slightly different advantages; 2.25 is just the average).

    So, yeah, if in non-Covid seasons, the homecourt advantage is about 3.5 (the most popular estimate, although sometimes I see it as low as 3.1), then so far, HCA is still about 60-65% as strong as it was before, i.e. the impact of fans (and their impact on refs) is less than half of HCA. Pretty much what I expected in the preseason. Now that's a decent amount to slice off, but things like sight lines, no travel, etc. still represent the majority of HCA.
    Interesting indeed. Will await more data though, particularly in conference. But also there are SOME places where a certain number of students or family members of the players ARE allowed, I believe. So, it's not 100% fanless although it's mostly that way.

  5. #5
    Through last night's games...

    kenpom: 29 (offense 16, defense 84)
    sagarin: 30
    t-rank: 39
    net: 61 (up from 67, but still...)

    A win over UVa would certainly help these numbers...

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil2K View Post
    Through last night's games...

    kenpom: 29 (offense 16, defense 84)
    sagarin: 30
    t-rank: 39
    net: 61 (up from 67, but still...)

    A win over UVa would certainly help these numbers...
    Death, taxes, and Duke having a top 20 offense on KenPom. Remember when this team couldn't score?

    Coincidently, if you filter T-Rank for games played since January 24th, Duke is 13th overall with the 6th highest AdjOE (but 113th AdjDE).

    In the T-Ranketology, Duke is 9th in the "First Teams Out" list, just behind Syracuse and ahead of Georgia Tech. UNC is in the Last Four group. While Duke has played its way out of the NCAA Tournament, there's a real chance to play back into the field over the final weeks. At worst, Duke can play spoiler.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Huh. Kenpom just updated and we didn't move. I was hoping for a small bump.

    -jk

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Huh. Kenpom just updated and we didn't move. I was hoping for a small bump.

    -jk
    He didnít update yet. His software updates the record before it updates the efficiency stats. We will move up a little, though probably not a ton.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    He didnít update yet. His software updates the record before it updates the efficiency stats. We will move up a little, though probably not a ton.
    Thanks. I saw the record change and thought he had it in.

    -jk

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    He didnít update yet. His software updates the record before it updates the efficiency stats. We will move up a little, though probably not a ton.
    KenPom had Duke as a 1 point underdog going into the game, so a 1 point win probably wonít change things that much.

    A 1 point win feels way better than a 1 point loss from a fans perspective, but the Dork Polls donít care much about our feelings.

  11. #11
    NET to 55? That surprises me a bit...a big win over Wake and a close win over UVa are each worth six spots?

  12. Could be other teams lost or didn't do as well as expected?

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil2K View Post
    NET to 55? That surprises me a bit...a big win over Wake and a close win over UVa are each worth six spots?
    The win was close enough to the expected margin that we didnít move much. In Torvik, we moved from 39 to 36. In KrnPom, our defense jumped from 85 to 79, but our offensive efficiency barely moved (we performed really close to our expected efficiency. But UNC played a depleted Louisville team and performed better than ďexpectedĒ, and passed us. So our ranking didnít shift favorably because we werenít close enough to the teams above us.

    It was an important win, but it was very close to what we were expected to do.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It was an important win, but it was very close to what we were expected to do.
    Yes, if you look at efficiency ratings. However, I would venture a bet that 95% of non-tournament teams would NOT be a 1-point underdog vs UVa so from that perspective, it wasn't close to expected and propels us mightily there, while barely budging our efficiency ranking.

    I guess that shows that the dork polls like Duke a lot more than humans do. (Although NET still doesn't love us, perhaps it's because NET weights wins more and also had a 10-point cap.)

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Yes, if you look at efficiency ratings. However, I would venture a bet that 95% of non-tournament teams would NOT be a 1-point underdog vs UVa so from that perspective, it wasn't close to expected and propels us mightily there, while barely budging our efficiency ranking.

    I guess that shows that the dork polls like Duke a lot more than humans do. (Although NET still doesn't love us, perhaps it's because NET weights wins more and also had a 10-point cap.)
    this is exactly it. dork polls like close losses just as much as close wins... or almost.

    what changed the most is likely our luck went up.

  16. #16
    After the Syracuse victory, Duke is up to #28 in T-Rank, #28 on Haslemetrics, #28 on Sagarin, and #30 on KenPom.

    Duke is up to 11th in AdjOE on KenPom. Duke has been top 10 in AdjOE every year since the 2009 season on KenPom. This team has figured out how to score. This is not a great defensive team, though they are forcing turnovers and blocking shots.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    After the Syracuse victory, Duke is up to #28 in T-Rank, #28 on Haslemetrics, #28 on Sagarin, and #30 on KenPom.
    Yeah, but we continue to lag in the NET, which is among the NCAA's most valued rankings. We are now 47th in the NET and need to get that into the top 40s to feel good about getting a tourney bid.

    We are 2-3 in Quad 1 games. Both the @GaT and @UNC games will be Quad 1 opportunities. Hosting Louisville, #53 in the NET, is a Quad 2 game (we are 4-3 in Quad 2 games).
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, but we continue to lag in the NET, which is among the NCAA's most valued rankings. We are now 47th in the NET and need to get that into the top 40s to feel good about getting a tourney bid.

    We are 2-3 in Quad 1 games. Both the @GaT and @UNC games will be Quad 1 opportunities. Hosting Louisville, #53 in the NET, is a Quad 2 game (we are 4-3 in Quad 2 games).
    47th, but up 20 spots in 3 games. Given the opponents and the fact that two of the games are on the road, 3 more wins would really help...

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil2K View Post
    47th, but up 20 spots in 3 games. Given the opponents and the fact that two of the games are on the road, 3 more wins would really help...
    3 more wins and we are in, not even a question. At that point we'd be like a #8 seed with potential to move higher with a strong ACC tourney run.

    To me the question is what happens if we go 2-1 or even 1-2. There are possibilities, depending on the ACC tourney, where we still go dancing in both those scenarios.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Lunardi (again, grain of salt here) now has us as one of the last 4 teams out. I'd imagine that with a win over Louisville we'd move into his field.

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