MBB Dork Polls 2020-21

[House P]

Baylor had an efficiency margin of +34.84 coming into the ISU game. Today, their EM is down to +33.00. That is a fairly large move but still gives Baylor a pretty big leg up on the #3 team, Michigan, which has an EM +30.59. Gonzaga is in another stratosphere at +38.30.

To put that +38.30 in perspective, here are the annual EM leaders over the past decade. These are all post-tournament numbers, so not exactly a good match to pre-tournament figures but still...

2020- Kansas +30.23, Gonzaga +26.95 (last year was a pretty weak year at the top in college basketball, would have made for a wild tourney... oh well)
2019 - Virginia +34.22, Gonzaga +32.85, Mich St +30.81, Duke +30.62
2018 - Villanova +33.76, Virginia +29.53, Duke +28.86
2017 - Gonzaga +32.05, Villanova +29.88
2016 - Villanova +32.01, UNC +29.82
2015 - Kentucky +36.91, Wisconsin +33.72, Duke +32.48
2014 - Louisville +30.41, Arizona +30.11
2013 - Louisville +32.92, Florida +31.18
2012 - Kentucky +32.59, Ohio St +30.07
2011 - Ohio St +33.47, Duke +28.42 (what about only games in which Kyrie played?)
2010 - Duke +33.29, Kansas +31.85

As you can see, Baylor would be the top team most years in the past, though not every time. This year's Gonzaga though has a higher EM than any team over the past decade. In fact, if you go back even further in Ken's database (back to 2002), you cannot find any year where Gonzaga's +38EM would not be easily the highest in the land (wish I could find numbers on 1999 Duke!!). We will see if it holds up for Gonzaga into the post-season, but it would appear the Zags have a real shot at being a truly legendary team this year and going down as one of the greats in the history of the sport.

-Jason "and yes, I will be cross posting this into the dork poll thread seeing as it is about 98% dork poll content" Evans

[Response copied from other thread because this is a more appropriate thread.]

According to KenPom, the 99 Duke team had a post-tourney EM of +42.7!

The 2001 Duke team had a post-tourney EM of +37.3.

As others have pointed out, it is difficult to compare EM's across seasons, but one way to think about it is that the 99 Duke team was 30.8 points per game better than the average D1 team that season. (42.7 points per 100 possessions * 72.3 possessions per game = 30.8 points per game).

[Kedsy]

Baylor had an efficiency margin of +34.84 coming into the ISU game. Today, their EM is down to +33.00. That is a fairly large move but still gives Baylor a pretty big leg up on the #3 team, Michigan, which has an EM +30.59. Gonzaga is in another stratosphere at +38.30.

To put that +38.30 in perspective, here are the annual EM leaders over the past decade. These are all post-tournament numbers, so not exactly a good match to pre-tournament figures but still...

2020- Kansas +30.23, Gonzaga +26.95 (last year was a pretty weak year at the top in college basketball, would have made for a wild tourney... oh well)
2019 - Virginia +34.22, Gonzaga +32.85, Mich St +30.81, Duke +30.62
2018 - Villanova +33.76, Virginia +29.53, Duke +28.86
2017 - Gonzaga +32.05, Villanova +29.88
2016 - Villanova +32.01, UNC +29.82
2015 - Kentucky +36.91, Wisconsin +33.72, Duke +32.48
2014 - Louisville +30.41, Arizona +30.11
2013 - Louisville +32.92, Florida +31.18
2012 - Kentucky +32.59, Ohio St +30.07
2011 - Ohio St +33.47, Duke +28.42 (what about only games in which Kyrie played?)
2010 - Duke +33.29, Kansas +31.85

As you can see, Baylor would be the top team most years in the past, though not every time. This year's Gonzaga though has a higher EM than any team over the past decade. In fact, if you go back even further in Ken's database (back to 2002), you cannot find any year where Gonzaga's +38EM would not be easily the highest in the land (wish I could find numbers on 1999 Duke!!). We will see if it holds up for Gonzaga into the post-season, but it would appear the Zags have a real shot at being a truly legendary team this year and going down as one of the greats in the history of the sport.

Here are pre-Tournament numbers:

2020- Kansas +30.23, Gonzaga +26.95
2019 - Virginia +35.66, Gonzaga +32.79, Duke +31.99, Mich St +31.36,
2018 - Virginia +32.15, Villanova +31.41, Duke +29.13
2017 - Gonzaga +33.05, Villanova +30.77
2016 - Kansas +29.80, Mich St +29.09
2015 - Kentucky +37.43, Wisconsin +33.53, Arizona +32.31, Villanova +30.96, Virginia +30.89, Duke +29.31
2014 - Louisville +30.57, Arizona +30.40
2013 - Florida +31.98, Louisville +31.14
2012 - Kentucky +31.73, Ohio St +29.90
2011 - Ohio St +32.23, Duke +29.55*
2010 - Kansas +32.51, Duke +31.55

From 2002 to 2009, three teams had pre-Tourney EM above Baylor's 33: 2008 Kansas (33.96), 2005 Illinois (33.31), and 2002 Duke (34.02).

2015 Kentucky's 37.43 is in the same ballpark as 2021 Gonzaga's 38.30, and their lead over #2 (3.9) isn't too far off Gonzaga's lead of 5.3. And we all know what happened to UK in 2015.

Since 2002, the pre-tournament #1 team in KenPom has won the national championship three (3) times (Kansas in '08; Kentucky in '12; Virginia in '19). In fact, the pre-tournament #1 KenPom team has only made the Final Four in seven (7) of the last 18 (since 2002) tournaments. So I wouldn't go ordering my Gonzaga national champion t-shirt just yet.


* what about only games in which Kyrie played? I can't find KenPom's rankings the day after Kyrie got hurt, but I know Duke was #2 on 12/31 (behind Ohio State), and I also know that our EM went down during the last three games Kyrie played, so I doubt our EM only in games Kyrie played was earth-shatteringly special.


.

[House P]

what about only games in which Kyrie played? I can't find KenPom's rankings the day after Kyrie got hurt, but I know Duke was #2 on 12/31 (behind Ohio State), and I also know that our EM went down during the last three games Kyrie played, so I doubt our EM only in games Kyrie played was earth-shatteringly special.
.

Here are the adjusted EMs for Duke's 2010-11 games with Kyrie.

	Adj Offense	Adj Defense	AdjEM
Princeton	130.3	75.7	54.5
Miami OH	110.3	65.4	44.9
Colgate	125.6	79.4	46.2
Marquette	110.5	85.9	24.5
Kansas St.	119.8	80.9	38.9
Oregon	121.5	79.6	41.9
Michigan St.	120.5	101.5	18.9
Butler	121.4	88.3	33.2
AVG-1st 8 games	120.0	82.1	37.9
Hampton	133.1	77.3	55.8
Michigan	126.4	108.3	18.1
Arizona	115.9	119.2	-3.2
AVG-NCAA Tourney	125.1	101.6	23.5
AVG- ALL 11 Games	121.4	87.4	34.0

Clearly the team was playing fantastic basketball during the first 8 games with Kyrie.

However, I should point out the an average EM of 37.9 over 8 games does not necessarily translate to a KenPom rating of 37.9. Ken would "de-value" the guady AdjEM numbers put up against overmatched opponents like Miami-OH and Colgate. So Duke's actual KenPom rating after 8 games would be a bit lower than 37.9.

On the other hand, Princeton ended the season as KenPom's #79 team. So, KenPom would consider Duke's 37 point win vs the Tigers to be as impressive as any game Duke played that season.

[Kedsy]

Here are the adjusted EMs for Duke's 2010-11 games with Kyrie.

	Adj Offense	Adj Defense	AdjEM
Princeton	130.3	75.7	54.5
Miami OH	110.3	65.4	44.9
Colgate	125.6	79.4	46.2
Marquette	110.5	85.9	24.5
Kansas St.	119.8	80.9	38.9
Oregon	121.5	79.6	41.9
Michigan St.	120.5	101.5	18.9
Butler	121.4	88.3	33.2
AVG-1st 8 games	120.0	82.1	37.9
Hampton	133.1	77.3	55.8
Michigan	126.4	108.3	18.1
Arizona	115.9	119.2	-3.2
AVG-NCAA Tourney	125.1	101.6	23.5
AVG- ALL 11 Games	121.4	87.4	34.0

Clearly the team was playing fantastic basketball during the first 8 games with Kyrie.

However, I should point out the an average EM of 37.9 over 8 games does not necessarily translate to a KenPom rating of 37.9. Ken would "de-value" the guady AdjEM numbers put up against overmatched opponents like Miami-OH and Colgate. So Duke's actual KenPom rating after 8 games would be a bit lower than 37.9.

On the other hand, Princeton ended the season as KenPom's #79 team. So, KenPom would consider Duke's 37 point win vs the Tigers to be as impressive as any game Duke played that season.

Our adj EM for the entire season (including Kyrie's games) was 29.6, so if KenPom's average was a bit lower in the early Kyrie games and thus the total for 11 games was also a bit lower (say, 32 or 33), that would match the "eye test" that the team with Kyrie was better but not otherworldly better than the team for the entire season.

[proelitedota]

(wish I could find numbers on 1999 Duke!!).

Kenpom did historical data for fun a few years back. 1999 Duke was 40+.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Kenpom did historical data for fun a few years back. 1999 Duke was 40+.

Both the 99 and 01 Duke teams crested +40 AdjEM within their seasons.

2 teams have breached +40: 99 Duke and 01 Duke
2 more have breached +38: 15 Kentucky and 13 Florida
14 more got to +36: 19 Virginia, 19 Duke, 15 Virginia, 11 Ohio St, 10 Duke, 10 Kansas, 08 Kansas, 06 Duke, 01 Stanford, 00 Cincinnati, 98 Duke, 98 UNC, 97 Kentucky, 97 Wake Forest

source

I find this list fascinating for its lack of National Championships. Duke won in '01 as did '99 Virginia, '10 Duke, and '08 Kansas. The other 14 didn't and many fell short of the Final Four.

Always take the field.

[CDu]

Both the 99 and 01 Duke teams crested +40 AdjEM within their seasons.



source

I find this list fascinating for its lack of National Championships. Duke won in '01 as did '99 Virginia, '10 Duke, and '08 Kansas. The other 14 didn't and many fell short of the Final Four.

Always take the field.

Yes, it's simple math. Even a team that was a 90% favorite in every game (which would be absurd) would only be a coin flip (53%) chance of winning the title.

If we assume that the best team is a 99% chance in round 1, 90% chance in round 2, 80% chance in round 3, 75% chance in round 4 and 5, and 70% chance in the final (which would be a fairly heavy favorite), that's only a 28% chance of winning the title.

The VERY best teams are typically at most like a 40% chance of winning. That doesn't mean the top 1 seed in a given year. That means "team on the short list of best ever". Typical top 1 seeds are probably more like a 20-30% chance.

So yes, always take the field. Six-game single-elimination tournaments mean the season's best team wins fairly rarely.

[tommy]

Yes, it's simple math. Even a team that was a 90% favorite in every game (which would be absurd) would only be a coin flip (53%) chance of winning the title.

If we assume that the best team is a 99% chance in round 1, 90% chance in round 2, 80% chance in round 3, 75% chance in round 4 and 5, and 70% chance in the final (which would be a fairly heavy favorite), that's only a 28% chance of winning the title.

The VERY best teams are typically at most like a 40% chance of winning. That doesn't mean the top 1 seed in a given year. That means "team on the short list of best ever". Typical top 1 seeds are probably more like a 20-30% chance.

So yes, always take the field. Six-game single-elimination tournaments mean the season's best team wins fairly rarely.

Yup, according to these sites, a given #1 seeded team has only about a 15% chance to win the championship.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-nation...pionship-odds/

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

[Kedsy]

I posted this in another thread, but since it's full-on dork poll material, I figured I should cross-post it here.

I've been playing around with Torvik game scores. He has data back to 2008.

The first two columns are regular season avg and std dev; next two columns are avg and SD for post-season; last column is average for first two games of the postseason.

Year	Avg	StDev	postAvg	postSD	1st 2 ps avg	
2008	93.0	10.2	80.8	16.4	92.0	
2009	90.5	16.7	81.5	27.1	88.0	
2010	93.6	10.5	97.0	2.3	94.0	
2011	92.7	11.1	94.2	9.1	97.0	w/ Kyrie: 95.3
2012	87.4	14.3	76.3	15.5	85.0	
2013	90.4	14.1	84.6	19.7	73.0	w/ Ryan Kelly: 93.3
2014	91.4	10.8	82.3	14.9	92.5	
2015	92.3	11.5	94.8	12.0	82.5	
2016	88.6	11.9	81.4	12.5	80.5	
2017	89.6	12.7	94.5	3.8	95.0	
2018	91.7	9.7	91.7	9.2	86.0	
2019	92.3	12.8	94.9	2.0	96.0	w/ Zion: 95.3
2020	86.7	17.1	n/a	n/a	n/a	
2021	73.2	22.0	98.0	1.4	98.0	w/o Jalen: 77.8

It wasn't just wins and losses; this was by far the worst Duke team, definitely since 2008 and almost certainly since 1995. And we weren't that much better without Jalen than we were with him. But, FWIW, our two post-season games were the best first two post-season games since at least 2008, so we got that going for us.

[proelitedota]

Duke is the highest team on Kenpom and Bartorvick list to be left out of the field.

We need to play angry next season.

[uh_no]

Duke is the highest team on Kenpom and Bartorvick list to be left out of the field.

We need to play angry next season.

we need to win games.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

we need to win games.

We need to play games.

[throatybeard]

Apparently we're a bubbling cauldron of need.