2020 NBA Offseason

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I’m with you 100% on this. These contracts are completely insane, with the Paul George contract being Exhibit A.

The amounts are insane, yes. But that means the revenue is insane too. Who else should the money go to?

[flyingdutchdevil]

The amounts are insane, yes. But that means the revenue is insane too. Who else should the money go to?

Amounts are insane because an NBA roster is only 15 players vs any other professional sport where the roster goes into 20+. And of those 15 players, only <5 get paid insane money.

The NBA is a league of stars because there are so few players, and stars will get paid.

I do think the numbers are crazy and this warrants expansion, but owners would be against that as it will dilute their share of the pie.

[Kdogg]

Amounts are insane because an NBA roster is only 15 players vs any other professional sport where the roster goes into 20+. And of those 15 players, only <5 get paid insane money.

The NBA is a league of stars because there are so few players, and stars will get paid.

I do think the numbers are crazy and this warrants expansion, but owners would be against that as it will dilute their share of the pie.

The NBA made a conscious decision decades ago to market stars over teams. The NFL did the opposite. It took awhile, but NBA stars realized the hold the power as long as a CPA is in effect. The numbers we are seeing is the result of total revenue increasing from TV money. There is no guarantee that TV revenue increases especially with the head winds from China.

Also to note, the headline figure is not necessary what the player takes home. Both Kyrie and Durant have incentive clauses that they will never meet. It allows them to make headlines but gives teams space for other players. Of course if total revenue goes up, so does their share.

[bundabergdevil]

The NBA made a conscious decision decades ago to market stars over teams. The NFL did the opposite. It took awhile, but NBA stars realized the hold the power as long as a CPA is in effect. The numbers we are seeing is the result of total revenue increasing from TV money. There is no guarantee that TV revenue increases especially with the head winds from China.

Also to note, the headline figure is not necessary what the player takes home. Both Kyrie and Durant have incentive clauses that they will never meet. It allows them to make headlines but gives teams space for other players. Of course if total revenue goes up, so does their share.

It should also be noted that, relative to the value they generate for franchises and cities and companies, a few stars are still underpaid. I’d have to dig up some of the stats but a guy like LBJ creates so much value for a franchise that the CBA still doesn’t have upper limits that would enable him to reach his market price point.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The NBA made a conscious decision decades ago to market stars over teams. The NFL did the opposite. It took awhile, but NBA stars realized the hold the power as long as a CPA is in effect. The numbers we are seeing is the result of total revenue increasing from TV money. There is no guarantee that TV revenue increases especially with the head winds from China.

Also to note, the headline figure is not necessary what the player takes home. Both Kyrie and Durant have incentive clauses that they will never meet. It allows them to make headlines but gives teams space for other players. Of course if total revenue goes up, so does their share.

I don't have a big issue with guys like Giannis getting these huge contracts. Because he puts backsides in seats (in non-covid times), gets people to turn on the TV, and sells merchandise. When Milwaukee is a road team, people show up specifically to see him.

It is the second tier of guys getting the large contracts that I have an issue with, like Al Horford, where the second the contract is signed, anyone with any common sense realizes that the player was overpaid and this is going to ruin a team's salary cap in a few years. Then we get into endless conversations of matching up salaries for trades, expiring contracts, trading a player for pennies on the dollar in order to get rid of the contract, etc. which ruin basketball for me. If I recall, there has been some effort to curb this by limiting who can get the truly huge contracts, but even the next tier of contracts can become problematic.

[dukelifer]

It should also be noted that, relative to the value they generate for franchises and cities and companies, a few stars are still underpaid. I’d have to dig up some of the stats but a guy like LBJ creates so much value for a franchise that the CBA still doesn’t have upper limits that would enable him to reach his market price point.

Lebron will have to muddle through. He will probably make more money after he stops playing basketball.

[JasonEvans]

It is the second tier of guys getting the large contracts that I have an issue with, like Al Horford, where the second the contract is signed, anyone with any common sense realizes that the player was overpaid and this is going to ruin a team's salary cap in a few years. Then we get into endless conversations of matching up salaries for trades, expiring contracts, trading a player for pennies on the dollar in order to get rid of the contract, etc. which ruin basketball for me. If I recall, there has been some effort to curb this by limiting who can get the truly huge contracts, but even the next tier of contracts can become problematic.

^^^^^ This ^^^^

Every off season we see a couple deals where the moment it is signed, some folks say, "well, that was a franchise crippling mistake." Heck Charlotte has done it in back-to-back seasons with the Terry Rozier (3 years, $56 mil) and Gordon Hayward (4 year, $120 mil) contracts. I think Marcus Morris' 4 year, $64 mil deal with the Clippers may have been a mistake too, if not right away then as Morris gets older. He's already 31.

But I don't see anyone saying the Freak deal is anything close to a mistake.

By the way, as a result of the escalations in the Freak's contract, it gets to be really crazy in the final couple years.

2020-21: $27.5M
2021-22: $39.3M
2022-23: $42.4M
2023-24: $45.6M
2024-25: $48.7M
2025-26: $51.9M (option)

-Jason "crazy to think he might turn down a $51.9 mil option... wow!" Evans

P.S. - At least basketball is smart enough to limit the length of contracts to 4 years plus an option. In MLB, guys get signed to crippling deals that last 6, 8, 10, even 13 years

[Kdogg]

-Jason "crazy to think he might turn down a $51.9 mil option... wow!" Evans

Harden basically did when Houston tried to extend his contract. They wanted to give him an EXTRA $50 million / 1 year on top of his existing deal.

[Phredd3]

In MLB, guys get signed to crippling deals that last 6, 8, 10, even 13 years

July 1, 2035.

[JasonEvans]

July 1, 2035.

Yeah, but $1.19 million seems almost quaint in terms of modern athlete salaries.

-Jason "and it has been noted that Bobby Bonilla in only making 8% per year on the money that was owed to him... if he had taken the money and put it in the market, he'd be doing much better than the $1.19 mil per year that he currently earns" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, but $1.19 million seems almost quaint in terms of modern athlete salaries.

-Jason "and it has been noted that Bobby Bonilla in only making 8% per year on the money that was owed to him... if he had taken the money and put it in the market, he'd be doing much better than the $1.19 mil per year that he currently earns" Evans

Not if you're 57 years old, which is how old Bonilla is today. He'll be 72 in 2035. Think of that $1.2M as a pension.

Also, 8% is around the return of the markets over the last ~20 years (S&P 500 is around ~8.9%). It's comparable, but that Mets money is risk free vs the volatility of the markets.

[Phredd3]

Yeah, but $1.19 million seems almost quaint in terms of modern athlete salaries.

And that's the only reason I hesitated to bring it up. But it is still one of the weirdest sports contracts ever.