FB: Succession Planning 2020

[SamHouston]

My family and I have sat in the same seats at Wallace Wade for over thirty years. I fully recognize the institutional investment made to establish and sustain "Hell Yea, Duke Football" The retrenchment palpable. It hurts. David Cutcliff accepted the challenge- to create a football culture that mirrors the standards of Duke University. New leadership is needed. There are too many reasons for even the most faithful fans to abandon Saturdays at Wallace Wade. I do not think there will be more than 5,000 left. Visualize a mammoth Duke Blue tarp covering the entire East stands. I am asking Duke to make the right, hard decision in 2020.

[uh_no]

There are too many reasons for even the most faithful fans to abandon Saturdays at Wallace Wade.

Unfortunately the department/university dig their own grave on that one, and the issues with the game day experience are well known to regular attendees on this board. Now assuming those will not get fixed, the biggest issues aside from the play on the field are usually:

- scheduling
- game time

Revenue sports obviously sold their soul on the last one, so it can't be helped if we want to collect that sweet sweet TV money, and the first is an unfortunate necessity if we want to continue to have a shot at bowl games. So for better or worse, the department optimizes for things other than game-day attendance....and the play the past couple years hasn't helped. I went to games in the roof era, and will continue to go now (even for ones I'm not obligated to be at). But I can't say that the game is often the most fun part of the day.

[AustinDevil]

Unfortunately the department/university dig their own grave on that one, and the issues with the game day experience are well known to regular attendees on this board. Now assuming those will not get fixed, the biggest issues aside from the play on the field are usually:

- scheduling
- game time

Revenue sports obviously sold their soul on the last one, so it can't be helped if we want to collect that sweet sweet TV money, and the first is an unfortunate necessity if we want to continue to have a shot at bowl games. So for better or worse, the department optimizes for things other than game-day attendance...and the play the past couple years hasn't helped. I went to games in the roof era, and will continue to go now (even for ones I'm not obligated to be at). But I can't say that the game is often the most fun part of the day.

I think you took a post that was entirely about the need to thank and to fire Coach Cutcliffe, and tried to turn it into a post about the game day experience (not that the people in charge there shouldn’t be fired as well, but ... different topic).

[uh_no]

I think you took a post that was entirely about the need to thank and to fire Coach Cutcliffe, and tried to turn it into a post about the game day experience (not that the people in charge there shouldn’t be fired as well, but ... different topic).

The premise was that firing coach cutcliffe will lead to much change in attendance over the coming years, I reject that wholly for the grounds I mentioned. While the performance of the team on the field is a some portion of the issue, any duke coach is fighting that one with 1.5 of their hands tied behind their back. Sure, there will be draws when we're in contention for division titles, but to expect that every year is silly.

Now, if the discussion is who should coach the team moving forward, that's more interesting.

[Acymetric]

The premise was that firing coach cutcliffe will lead to much change in attendance over the coming years

I'm pretty sure that wasn't the premise of the thread, attendance was just a lead-in.

[dukelifer]

My family and I have sat in the same seats at Wallace Wade for over thirty years. I fully recognize the institutional investment made to establish and sustain "Hell Yea, Duke Football" The retrenchment palpable. It hurts. David Cutcliff accepted the challenge- to create a football culture that mirrors the standards of Duke University. New leadership is needed. There are too many reasons for even the most faithful fans to abandon Saturdays at Wallace Wade. I do not think there will be more than 5,000 left. Visualize a mammoth Duke Blue tarp covering the entire East stands. I am asking Duke to make the right, hard decision in 2020.

I am much more worried about the plan for basketball. It is not a gimme that basketball will remain elite. This will have a much greater impact on Duke and should be the priority. But I expect Cut, K and Kevin White all to retire at the same time.

[SamHouston]

The premise was that firing coach cutcliffe will lead to much change in attendance over the coming years, I reject that wholly for the grounds I mentioned. While the performance of the team on the field is a some portion of the issue, any duke coach is fighting that one with 1.5 of their hands tied behind their back. Sure, there will be draws when we're in contention for division titles, but to expect that every year is silly.

Now, if the discussion is who should coach the team moving forward, that's more interesting.

Duke Football is in danger of losing the most loyal fans after investing 200M to be competitive in the ACC. If nothing is done, the home of Duke Football will be a Wasteland. Wasting 200M is embarrassing. I intentionally mentioned Succession Planning, not firing or termination. Onward. I am thinking Big Picture, not about fine tuning the "game day experience"

[OZZIE4DUKE]

And I thought you were talking about who should start at quarterback in our next game. I’m thinking either Gunnar or Luca. Don’t know why I exclude Chris K from the selection process.

As to the best part of the game day experience? Out tailgate!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

And I thought you were talking about who should start at quarterback in our next game. I’m thinking either Gunnar or Luca. Don’t know why I exclude Chris K from the selection process.

As to the best part of the game day experience? Out tailgate!

I read this as "Coach K" instead of "Chris K." I'm in favor of that too!

[budwom]

Duke Football is in danger of losing the most loyal fans after investing 200M to be competitive in the ACC. If nothing is done, the home of Duke Football will be a Wasteland. Wasting 200M is embarrassing. I intentionally mentioned Succession Planning, not firing or termination. Onward. I am thinking Big Picture, not about fine tuning the "game day experience"

You bring up a very good point (though personally I don't think I can overcome my addiction, I'll still come to the games for a variety of reasons). With the refurbishment of Wallace Wade, and the creation of a slew of expensive luxury boxes (and they ARE expensive), Duke will take an enormous hit if people sitting in The Tower fail to renew their tickets in large numbers, and I suspect they will. Our product on the field is both bad, and boring. The point being that Duke's fixed costs are now a lot higher than they used to be. (and who will then dine in the DeJoy Family Club? Sorry, can't help myself).

Cut deserves to be treated with great respect, and I bet he will be, but we're at something of a crisis point. After a variety of coaching changes, little has improved, and recruiting is less than mediocre. With a couple years remaining on his contract, this is the point at which many coaches ask for an extension so they can assure recruits they'll be around for five years. I don't think I see that happening.

And yes, for those who perennially ask if Duke can recruit a good new coach, the answer is yes. We now pay enough to recruit any number of up and coming coaches who make a third (or less) than Cut makes. Moreover, there's credible word that a very skilled coach has expressed interest in the Duke job.

Let's see what happens. We're Duke football fans, so whatever happens, we'll deal with it...

[arnie]

You bring up a very good point (though personally I don't think I can overcome my addiction, I'll still come to the games for a variety of reasons). With the refurbishment of Wallace Wade, and the creation of a slew of expensive luxury boxes (and they ARE expensive), Duke will take an enormous hit if people sitting in The Tower fail to renew their tickets in large numbers, and I suspect they will. Our product on the field is both bad, and boring. The point being that Duke's fixed costs are now a lot higher than they used to be. (and who will then dine in the DeJoy Family Club? Sorry, can't help myself).

Cut deserves to be treated with great respect, and I bet he will be, but we're at something of a crisis point. After a variety of coaching changes, little has improved, and recruiting is less than mediocre. With a couple years remaining on his contract, this is the point at which many coaches ask for an extension so they can assure recruits they'll be around for five years. I don't think I see that happening.

And yes, for those who perennially ask if Duke can recruit a good new coach, the answer is yes. We now pay enough to recruit any number of up and coming coaches who make a third (or less) than Cut makes. Moreover, there's credible word that a very skilled coach has expressed interest in the Duke job.

Let's see what happens. We're Duke football fans, so whatever happens, we'll deal with it...

Characteristic of a Duke football fan is someone who hopes for mediocrity but expects failure. Sounds like most of us fit that “definition”.

[budwom]

Characteristic of a Duke football fan is someone who hopes for mediocrity but expects failure. Sounds like most of us fit that “definition”.

yeah, you and I have been at it for some time, right? I've had season tickets since 1985 despite living 800 miles away, just can't help myself...thru the Roof and Franks years, we sat there just wondering exactly how long could we be this bad? Another 20 years? Forever? Managing expectations has been the key to longevity.

The best news is that Durham restaurants have improved by about a zillion percent since 1985, always look forward to a good post game dining experience.

And if there's one tiny good thing about the pandemic, it's that it's saved me from watching some of these football games in person this year.

[arnie]

yeah, you and I have been at it for some time, right? I've had season tickets since 1985 despite living 800 miles away, just can't help myself...thru the Roof and Franks years, we sat there just wondering exactly how long could we be this bad? Another 20 years? Forever? Managing expectations has been the key to longevity.

The best news is that Durham restaurants have improved by about a zillion percent since 1985, always look forward to a good post game dining experience.

And if there's one tiny good thing about the pandemic, it's that it's saved me from watching some of these football games in person this year.

Yea, firmly decided I’d never go to another Duke football game when we lost to Maryland (maybe 1992) up 5, 13 seconds left, Md on their own 13 yd line and no timeouts. Of course I’ve probably attended 50-75 games since then but at least quit buying season txs. The Crowder catch to beat the Cheats does remain my favorite memory.

[rtnorthrup]

Succession planning is actually a very apt description of what I hope is being discussed.

There are a couple of scenarios due to the current COVID landscape. One is that Duke athletics is going to really struggle financially and be put to the sword to make some difficult calls regarding non-revenue sports and personnel. The other is that Duke is going to simply hunker down and try to ride this out. Personally, I think a lot will hinge on the ability of the NCAA to host a Men's Basketball Tourney next spring. Duke Football won't be getting a bowl payout this year, so it will simply take it's ACC share of tv, etc. I suspect that Duke will find some way to allow fan attendance in Cameron this year, though that is less than certain at this point. In any event, Duke, like every other University is bleeding money in the athletic department.

Fact is, I do not expect major coaching turnover to happen this year, absent some financial crisis. Unless Cut decides he is done (I really don't see that happening), he will be our head coach next year. Will there be staff changes? Who knows. I do think his seat will be very warm next season, which is unfortunate, since we will lose a lot of our stronger performing players this offseason. We will be very, very young next season. Will there be non-conference games next year? Will there be a Spring football period? There is so much up in the air right now.

Unless there is a major turnaround, its hard to see Cut getting another contract extension. Does he transition into an Administrative position within the Duke athletic department?

[AustinDevil]

Unless there is a major turnaround, its hard to see Cut getting another contract extension. Does he transition into an Administrative position within the Duke athletic department?

As someone who has been one of his biggest fans as a coach and remains one of his biggest fans as a person, but also does not want to see him coach one more Duke football game, I certainly hope so.

[uh_no]

Succession planning is actually a very apt description of what I hope is being discussed.

There are a couple of scenarios due to the current COVID landscape. One is that Duke athletics is going to really struggle financially and be put to the sword to make some difficult calls regarding non-revenue sports and personnel. The other is that Duke is going to simply hunker down and try to ride this out. Personally, I think a lot will hinge on the ability of the NCAA to host a Men's Basketball Tourney next spring. Duke Football won't be getting a bowl payout this year, so it will simply take it's ACC share of tv, etc. I suspect that Duke will find some way to allow fan attendance in Cameron this year, though that is less than certain at this point. In any event, Duke, like every other University is bleeding money in the athletic department.

Fact is, I do not expect major coaching turnover to happen this year, absent some financial crisis. Unless Cut decides he is done (I really don't see that happening), he will be our head coach next year. Will there be staff changes? Who knows. I do think his seat will be very warm next season, which is unfortunate, since we will lose a lot of our stronger performing players this offseason. We will be very, very young next season. Will there be non-conference games next year? Will there be a Spring football period? There is so much up in the air right now.

Unless there is a major turnaround, its hard to see Cut getting another contract extension. Does he transition into an Administrative position within the Duke athletic department?

Are they, though? The TV money doesn't go away, and it's not like they were pulliing in huge revenue from football attendance. Plus the department runs a bit leaner...fewer sports than some of the big schools. Losing the basketball postseason was likely a one-time hit. We also went out and doubled down on WBB over the summer...which I can't imagine came cheap.

That said, as this thread seems to keep coming back to it, I imagine some amount of fans won't come back post-pandemic. I don't think that's necessarily a problem specific to duke...as attendance has been slipping for a long while across the country...but the performance on the field certainly doesn't help the issue. I suppose schools are getting bit by having been effectively forced into a non-diversified position. All the eggs are in the football basket...and we have to play ball.

[johnb]

For those better informed than am I, what do you think the problem is in regards to the wins/losses?

The variables seem to include scheduling, luck, the talent of the average starter, the number of unicorns/team (ie, 3 stars-->NFL), coaching effectiveness, and some sort of esprit de corps.

Scheduling has gotten us to bowl games several times, though the team still has to defeat teams it might not have defeated pre-Cutcliffe.

The talent of the average starter seems solid to me. One problem is that some of the ACC's Big State U's routinely get several 4 and even 5 star recruits every recruiting cycle. That doesn't mean our guys can't play on the same field, but it does mean we're likely to lose.

Seems that there are 8 Duke alums currently active in the NFL, and the team is obviously improved when we have guys like Daniel Jones, Laken Tomlinson, and Jamison Crowder. Everybody knows, especially recruits, that it's helpful to their own development (and their NFL prospects) if the future NFL players are on the same college team at the same time. Ie, Jones gets protection from Tomlinson and has an extra half second to throw to Crowder, who gains 40 yards. As our current qb mentioned in a rare bit of honesty +/- undercutting one's current teammates: "it's great to be at Duke, etc, but at Clemson, I could throw the ball to approximately the right spot, and the great Clemson receivers would almost always, somehow make the catch" (paraphrase). Jones never said as much while he was at Duke, but it was obvious that many of his best passes ricocheted off the hands of receivers who are no doubt excellent football players but were not at the level that allows a team to routinely beat Carolina or Virginia, much less Clemson.

Two more thoughts--next post!

[johnb]

For those better informed than am I, what do you think the problem is in regards to the wins/losses?

The variables seem to include scheduling, luck, the talent of the average starter, the number of unicorns/team (ie, 3 stars-->NFL), coaching effectiveness, and some sort of esprit de corps.

Scheduling has gotten us to bowl games several times, though the team still has to defeat teams it might not have defeated pre-Cutcliffe.

The talent of the average starter seems solid to me. One problem is that some of the ACC's Big State U's routinely get several 4 and even 5 star recruits every recruiting cycle. That doesn't mean our guys can't play on the same field, but it does mean we're likely to lose.

Seems that there are 8 Duke alums currently active in the NFL, and the team is obviously improved when we have guys like Daniel Jones, Laken Tomlinson, and Jamison Crowder. Everybody knows, especially recruits, that it's helpful to their own development (and their NFL prospects) if the future NFL players are on the same college team at the same time. Ie, Jones gets protection from Tomlinson and has an extra half second to throw to Crowder, who gains 40 yards. As our current qb mentioned in a rare bit of honesty +/- undercutting one's current teammates: "it's great to be at Duke, etc, but at Clemson, I could throw the ball to approximately the right spot, and the great Clemson receivers would almost always, somehow make the catch" (paraphrase). Jones never said as much while he was at Duke, but it was obvious that many of his best passes ricocheted off the hands of receivers who are no doubt excellent football players but were not at the level that allows a team to routinely beat Carolina or Virginia, much less Clemson.

Two more thoughts--next post!

If we aren't going to successfully recruit head-to-head for 4/5 star players (which we've never been able to do), then we need to have a shrewd eye for talent, and I wonder if the unicorn piece, the coaching piece, and the esprit de corps piece don't go hand in hand.

I have no reason to think the current coaching staff isn't very good, and I have no intention (or expertise) to be a nit picker, but it seems that Cutcliffe's original coaching staff might just have been unusually excellent, both in regards to talent development as well as talent identification. One way to quantify: what are they doing now?

2012 Duke Coaching Staff

Still at Duke:
David Cutcliffe Head Coach
Re'quan Boyette RB Coach --> RB Coach
Zac Roper Special Teams Coordinator/Recruiting Coordinator/Tight Ends--> Deputy HC
Jeff Faris Graduate Assistant Coach --> Recruiting coordinator, Asst Coach TE's
Matt Guerrieri Graduate Assistant Coach --> Co-defensive coordinator, Duke

Left Duke
John Latina Assistant Head Coach - Run Game Coordinator/Offensive Line --> Asst Head Coach Notre Dame
Ron Middleton Associate Head Coach/Special Teams Coordinator/Tight Ends --> Tight Ends Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kurt Roper Assistant Head Coach - Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks --> Offensive Coordinator, South Carolina
Derek Jones Assistant Coach - Assistant Special Teams Coordinator/Defensive Backs --> Associate Head Coach, Co-defensive coordinator, Texas Tech
Jim Knowles Defensive Coordinator --> Defensive Coordinator, Oklahoma State
Matt Lubick Passing Game Coordinator - Recruiting Coordinator/Wide Receivers --> Offensive Coordinator, Nebraska
Rick Petri Assistant Coach - Defensive Line --> DL Coach, La Tech
Marcus Johnson Offensive Quality Control --> OL Coach, Missouri
Ben Loebner Offensive Quality Control -->out of football?
Patrick O'Connor Defensive Quality Control --> out of football?
Vince Oghobaase Graduate Assistant Coach --> DL Coach, Boston College

This strikes me as an unusually successful group of coaches, who Coach Cut was able to recruit into the Duke fold for a variety of reasons, including loyalty and timing. I'd add that the guys who've stuck around from that 2012 group are also impressive: they coach RB's and TEs and include the deputy head coach and co-defensive coordinator, all of which are positions of strength.

My hunch is that we don't necessarily need a new HC (who has, himself, an obvious eye for talent), but we might just need a bit of magic (of course, having said that, maybe we already have the group here, and the team is soon to unleash mighty vengeance upon the ACC, and--really--despite the losses and my view we shouldn't be playing because we're tacitly condoning predictably unsafe covid behavior elsewhere in the south and southwest, the Duke players guys strike me as quite talented and effortful and coulda woulda shoulda, etc--I guess we can compare notes in 2028 to make more comparisons).

[aimo]

yeah, you and I have been at it for some time, right? I've had season tickets since 1985 despite living 800 miles away, just can't help myself...thru the Roof and Franks years, we sat there just wondering exactly how long could we be this bad? Another 20 years? Forever? Managing expectations has been the key to longevity.

It has cracked us up at the games when they put a fan on the jumbotron and exclaim, "So and so has been coming to the Duke football games for TEN YEARS!!!" My mom has been going for more like 60 years. I suppose if they announced that, people would keel over in surprise.

[DU82]

It has cracked us up at the games when they put a fan on the jumbotron and exclaim, "So and so has been coming to the Duke football games for TEN YEARS!!!" My mom has been going for more like 60 years. I suppose if they announced that, people would keel over in surprise.

We did bow in respect to the one gentleman last season who had been attending games in Duke/Wallace Wade Stadium since (and including) the Rose Bowl.