2020-21 minutes thread - or is this redundant

[jimsumner]

So, here is how I would defend some of the controversial stuff in my predictions:

Hurt -- He has clearly been the best player in practice. Matt is the highest rated recruit on the team from any class and is a rare top ten recruit who returned for his soph season. By all accounts, he is just torching the nets in practice on a daily basis (not just Scheyer saying this, DJ Steward told me that Hurt was the best player in practice too).

Also expecting a big season from Hurt. But using RSCI Hurt was the no. 12 recruit in the 2019 prep class. Johnson was the no. 11 recruit in the 2020 class.

I really didn't see the level of uncertainty in Scheyer's remarks that you did. Johnson is skilled and versatile and is still trying to figure out the best ways to maximize those virtues.

[JasonEvans]

The top four guys on Jason's minute chart are all basically one-dimensional players. And the guys who should be our superstar, PG, sharpshooter, and best athletes are all relegated to minutes in the teens (meaning they haven't lived up to billing).

One more thing to mention regarding Hurt and Moore being the team leaders in minutes played (something I feel pretty solid about right now). Here are the top 25 Duke recruits who have come back for their soph season since everyone started turning pro ASAP in the mid 2010s.

Tre Jones, Bolden, Jeter, Kennard, and Allen.

Bolden and Jeter struggled as freshmen and that continued as sophs. Jeter averaged less than 8 mpg as a freshman and Bolden averaged only 6.5 mpg and did not play in many competitive games. Obviously, that was not the case with Hurt (20mpg) and Moore (24 mpg).

So, lets look at what happened to the other top 25 recruits who came back for their soph season after playing a meaningful role as a freshman.

Grayson Allen became a 21 ppg scorer, All-ACC First team, and a Wooden Award finalist.
Luke Kennard became a 19 ppg scorer, All-ACC First team, and a Wooden Award finalist.
Tre Jones became a 16 ppg scorer, All-ACC First team, and a Wooden Award finalist.

It is clear that 5-star recruits who are not quite good enough to leave as a freshman often make a huge leap as sophs. We have seen it here at Duke again and again and again in recent years. It is not at all of a stretch to think that one or both of Hurt and Moore will take a tremendous step forward this season and put himself in the conversation for major national and conference awards.

The Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore of 2019-20 were not capable of being the top players on a top ten team... I think projecting them to do that as sophs is not at all outrageous.

-Jason "Duke blue colored glasses... that's how I see my world " Evans

[Kedsy]

Goldwire - Jordan is a senior who averaged 24+ minutes per game last year. Expecting his minutes to increase by a few should not be controversial.

And yet, it is. Earlier in the thread you suggested Coach K's players' minutes rarely drop more than a minute or two from year to year. I offered you more than 10 examples, and I'm sure there are more.
But the biggest reason why your expectation is controversial is because you appear to expect Goldwire's minutes to come at the expense of Johnson, Roach, and Steward. Like I said, that's bold.

But sure, your minutes predictions may come true. If they do, I believe Duke won't be nearly as good a team as most people around here expect.

I know Coach K does not use his bench the way other coaches do, but I would merely point out that FSU played 11 guys 9+ minutes per game a year ago and it did not keep them from being a top 10 team and a somewhat trendy Final Four pick (if we had been able to play a NCAA tournament).

I said "on a Coach K team." K has talked for years about players separating themselves above the rest, and that appears to be a big reason why his rotations are so short and get shorter as the season goes on. This year, there's a very truncated pre-ACC-season, which is when the lower guys in the rotation typically get the bulk of their minutes. So if we have 10 or 11 guys with that many minutes for the whole season, it will mean K didn't see that separation this year, which again will mean the team won't be as good as most of us hope.

[whereinthehellami]

Based on the early reports and the COVID-19 affects on this season, I'm curious about a lineup of:

Goldwire - Solid, veteran. Defense first but now capable enough on offense.
Steward - Natural scorer, willing defender.
Moore - obvious choice, vet, possible star.
Hurt - obvious choice, vet, possible star.
Tape - maturity and seasoning might give him the edge to quickly fill role in the paint.

[Phredd3]

With the talk about Hurt becoming a possible star, have there been any comments from Those In The Know about his defense, specifically? He could always fill up the basket. His main problem was that he was a pretty severe defensive liability. I remember team explicitly forcing switches until they could isolate him. Has that problem been solved, at least partially?

[budwom]

With the talk about Hurt becoming a possible star, have there been any comments from Those In The Know about his defense, specifically? He could always fill up the basket. His main problem was that he was a pretty severe defensive liability. I remember team explicitly forcing switches until they could isolate him. Has that problem been solved, at least partially?

Yeah, I'm not getting too emotionally involved in this season until it's clearer that there will actually be a season. Having said that, I see some potential problems on the defensive end, with two of our most prominent returnees (Baker and Hurt) not being especially fleet of foot.

[jv001]

Yeah, I'm not getting too emotionally involved in this season until it's clearer that there will actually be a season. Having said that, I see some potential problems on the defensive end, with two of our most prominent returnees (Baker and Hurt) not being especially fleet of foot.

Is it too early to say ZONE?

GoDuke!

[Billy Dat]

With the talk about Hurt becoming a possible star, have there been any comments from Those In The Know about his defense, specifically? He could always fill up the basket. His main problem was that he was a pretty severe defensive liability. I remember team explicitly forcing switches until they could isolate him. Has that problem been solved, at least partially?

This was from the Athletic's piece after Hurt's media availability two weeks ago, "He knows, for example, his defense didn’t cut it. Against larger, stronger opponents, Hurt was outmuscled in the post. Against smaller, quick ones, he didn’t have the lateral foot speed to keep up. Not an easy realization to make, but a necessary one if you want to get better. Hurt did. Still does.
“I just tried to take the weaknesses last year,” he said, “and make them strengths in the offseason.”

That's what I have seen on the subject.

We can now add yesterday's Jeremy Roach media availability to the mix as we consider line-up and minutes possibilities. Based on Jim Sumner's write it, it doesn't sound like there is currently a lot of gap between Goldwire and Roach. One has to assume that Roach has more talent, based on his ranking, but Goldwire has the experience, a significant amount when you consider the important minutes he's logged. Neither is a great shooter, although I feel like Goldwire got a lot better knocking down 3s when they left him open and also was a better finisher than the prior terror he used to exhibit when he drove to the hoop. They seem to have the same strengths - defense and floor generalship. Maybe they can sometimes be let loose as a defensive force the way Jones and Goldwire were paired, but Tre had a few inches of both of them. If Roach is going to earn time, he's going to have to go through Goldwire which won't be done without a major fight. I think he'll have to prove equal defense and to be a much better option on offense to get the minutes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This was from the Athletic's piece after Hurt's media availability two weeks ago, "He knows, for example, his defense didn’t cut it. Against larger, stronger opponents, Hurt was outmuscled in the post. Against smaller, quick ones, he didn’t have the lateral foot speed to keep up. Not an easy realization to make, but a necessary one if you want to get better. Hurt did. Still does.
“I just tried to take the weaknesses last year,” he said, “and make them strengths in the offseason.”

That's what I have seen on the subject.

We can now add yesterday's Jeremy Roach media availability to the mix as we consider line-up and minutes possibilities. Based on Jim Sumner's write it, it doesn't sound like there is currently a lot of gap between Goldwire and Roach. One has to assume that Roach has more talent, based on his ranking, but Goldwire has the experience, a significant amount when you consider the important minutes he's logged. Neither is a great shooter, although I feel like Goldwire got a lot better knocking down 3s when they left him open and also was a better finisher than the prior terror he used to exhibit when he drove to the hoop. They seem to have the same strengths - defense and floor generalship. Maybe they can sometimes be let loose as a defensive force the way Jones and Goldwire were paired, but Tre had a few inches of both of them. If Roach is going to earn time, he's going to have to go through Goldwire which won't be done without a major fight. I think he'll have to prove equal defense and to be a much better option on offense to get the minutes.

This isn't that surprising. Goldwire is a vocal leader and, more importantly, he's excellent at defense (he and Moore are by far our best defenders. I'm not sure anyone is even close to those two). But Roach is significantly more talented. And this team will, unfortunately, be limited with Goldwire taking a lot of minutes. We need Roach to take that top spot.

I'm nervous about a) Roach's knee and b) Roach's shot. The shot is tough to fix, but he if comes out with a great knee and shows complete confidence in it, we'll be a massive asset. My biggest fear is Roach AND Goldwire play a lot together (like Tre and Goldwire yesterday); this means that known shooters aren't likely to play a lot. Ideally, only Roach or Goldwire play with a mix of Moore, Hurt, Baker, Steward, and 1-2 bigs.

[MChambers]

Yeah, I'm not getting too emotionally involved in this season until it's clearer that there will actually be a season. Having said that, I see some potential problems on the defensive end, with two of our most prominent returnees (Baker and Hurt) not being especially fleet of foot.

It does seem that in recent years many Duke teams have had this issue, with the best offensive players being among the weakest defensive players.

[Monmouth77]

This was from the Athletic's piece after Hurt's media availability two weeks ago, "He knows, for example, his defense didn’t cut it. Against larger, stronger opponents, Hurt was outmuscled in the post. Against smaller, quick ones, he didn’t have the lateral foot speed to keep up. Not an easy realization to make, but a necessary one if you want to get better. Hurt did. Still does.
“I just tried to take the weaknesses last year,” he said, “and make them strengths in the offseason.”

That's what I have seen on the subject.

We can now add yesterday's Jeremy Roach media availability to the mix as we consider line-up and minutes possibilities. Based on Jim Sumner's write it, it doesn't sound like there is currently a lot of gap between Goldwire and Roach. One has to assume that Roach has more talent, based on his ranking, but Goldwire has the experience, a significant amount when you consider the important minutes he's logged. Neither is a great shooter, although I feel like Goldwire got a lot better knocking down 3s when they left him open and also was a better finisher than the prior terror he used to exhibit when he drove to the hoop. They seem to have the same strengths - defense and floor generalship. Maybe they can sometimes be let loose as a defensive force the way Jones and Goldwire were paired, but Tre had a few inches of both of them. If Roach is going to earn time, he's going to have to go through Goldwire which won't be done without a major fight. I think he'll have to prove equal defense and to be a much better option on offense to get the minutes.

Based on recruiting evaluations and what you can see on tape, Roach has elite end-to-end speed, elite finishing skills at the rim, and much better passing and ballhandling skills than Goldwire. If he can play defense at the ACC level, I expect that he'll earn the lion's share of minutes at point, and the best version of this Duke team is going to have Roach on the floor together with multiple shooters (Steward or Baker, and Hurt) and guys who can attack and finish in transition (Moore and Johnson). No doubt Goldwire will get minutes to make stops, set the tone, settle the team down, etc. But my expectation is that if Goldwire is the lead guard in January, this team will not be as good as we all usually hope for.

[Billy Dat]

From Jim Sumner's DBR recap of today K presser:

“Matt Hurt has been terrific. He’s 20 pounds heavier, confident, he doesn’t look like he should be as quick as he is but he is. In the last two weeks Wendell [Moore] has really taken another huge step forward.”

And the point guards. “Goldwire has been outstanding. A kid that has really come on, especially this week, is Jeremy Roach.”

“Mark Williams is something we’ve never really had. He’s 7-1 with a 7-5 wingspan.”

I am happy to see this news about Wendell, especially after Scheyer's lack of major endorsement last week. Per our earlier chatter, also nice to hear Roach may be closing that gap with Goldwire.

[flyingdutchdevil]

From Jim Sumner's DBR recap of today K presser:

“Matt Hurt has been terrific. He’s 20 pounds heavier, confident, he doesn’t look like he should be as quick as he is but he is. In the last two weeks Wendell [Moore] has really taken another huge step forward.”

And the point guards. “Goldwire has been outstanding. A kid that has really come on, especially this week, is Jeremy Roach.”

“Mark Williams is something we’ve never really had. He’s 7-1 with a 7-5 wingspan.”

I am happy to see this news about Wendell, especially after Scheyer's lack of major endorsement last week. Per our earlier chatter, also nice to hear Roach may be closing that gap with Goldwire.

Bolden was 6'11" with a 7'4" wingspan. I believe he and Brand have the longest wingspan in Duke history.

Looks like Mark Williams now joins them.

[Billy Dat]

Here's the full K transcript provided by GoDuke.com, lots of really great quotes about Nolan Smith.

https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/28/m...ce-quotes.aspx

Again, no Jalen Johnson quotes. Maybe they are waiting to spring him on the country, like a FIBA coach holding back his best until it matters.

[dukelifer]

Here's the full K transcript provided by GoDuke.com, lots of really great quotes about Nolan Smith.

https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/28/m...ce-quotes.aspx

Again, no Jalen Johnson quotes. Maybe they are waiting to spring him on the country, like a FIBA coach holding back his best until it matters.

I think that is pretty telling. It suggests to me that he is not getting something. I was convinced that UNC’s Little was going to be a Freshman Star and he was average at best and fairly unimpressive. That is not to say the current crop of Duke Freshman are not going to be good- but this could be a challenging year as none may be ready for the ACC wars. I think these guys will take the good part of a season to show their ability.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think that is pretty telling. It suggests to me that he is not getting something. I was convinced that UNC’s Little was going to be a Freshman Star and he was average at best and fairly unimpressive. That is not to say the current crop of Duke Freshman are not going to be good- but this could be a challenging year as none may be ready for the ACC wars. I think these guys will take the good part of a season to show their ability.

Could also be motivational. Coach K is a master at these kind of things.

[Fish80]

Hurt has improved so much they are making a movie featuring his locker. It’s called ..,,

The Hurt Locker 😄

[sagegrouse]

Could also be motivational. Coach K is a master at these kind of things.

When I read his quotes on Hurt and Moore, I thought "He wants Hurt to, in fact, be quicker" and "He wants Wendell to play like the best player on the court." But then, I am probably too cynical. Not everything is "coach speak."

[jimsumner]

Here's the full K transcript provided by GoDuke.com, lots of really great quotes about Nolan Smith.

https://goduke.com/news/2020/10/28/m...ce-quotes.aspx

Again, no Jalen Johnson quotes. Maybe they are waiting to spring him on the country, like a FIBA coach holding back his best until it matters.

For the record, these are selected quotes. Nowhere near the whole enchilada.

Somebody asked Scheyer about Johnson and Scheyer talked about Johnson.

Nobody asked K about Johnson and he didn't talk about him.

Only two questions were actually asked about this year's team.

[arnie]

For the record, these are selected quotes. Nowhere near the whole enchilada.

Somebody asked Scheyer about Johnson and Scheyer talked about Johnson.

Nobody asked K about Johnson and he didn't talk about him.

Only two questions were actually asked about this year's team.

Glad to hear that clarification. Was beginning to think Jalen would redshirt this year and stay 5 years.