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  1. #1
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    2020-21 minutes thread - or is this redundant

    Now that JD has published Part III of the preview of Duke's team is it time...…

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I did. Joey Baker is 10.9, when adjusted for DNP's. AOC is 12.2. I used the ESPN numbers, as opposed to the stats accessed off of GoDuke.com, which are riddled with confusing entries. I see the ESPN data total to 2,558 points, whereas, the sum of Duke scores is 2,488. The GoDuke data leaves out the stats for the Duke-FSU game, which Duke won 70-65. (I said the data was confusing).

    Joey played in 28 out of 31 games. Alex played in 29 of 31 per ESPN. Both are above 10.0 when the adjustments are made. Perhaps you have other data.
    Right, our numbers are the same. But you used the threshold of 12 mpg, not 10 mpg. 10.9 < 12...

    "I don't want to single out anyone above, but we had 10 players average 12 or more minutes per game in 2019-2020."

    In any event, we're splitting hairs and it doesn't change the narrative. Perhaps it's possible K has changed a bit with regard to playing depth...and perhaps not. We'll find out!

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Right, our numbers are the same. But you used the threshold of 12 mpg, not 10 mpg. 10.9 < 12...

    "I don't want to single out anyone above, but we had 10 players average 12 or more minutes per game in 2019-2020."

    In any event, we're splitting hairs and it doesn't change the narrative. Perhaps it's possible K has changed a bit with regard to playing depth...and perhaps not. We'll find out!
    It was either a typo or a minor brain spasm. In a normal season, I think players getting 350-400 minutes or more are getting enough floor time to learn and improve. Last year was only 31 games, so 300 or so minutes is pretty good. I thought in 2020 Coach K made a reasonable use of his entire roster. Yep -- at the end, there were a couple of games where the playing rotation tightened up. I don't think it's a plan -- it's how K chooses to manage important games where he is intensely focused.

    I think the approach to building roster has changed at Duke. With the higher number of one-and-done players and an increased tendency of players to transfer -- there is very little warning about roster vacancies. I have said in the past that the coaches get four months warning of a vacancy, but it takes an 18-month lead time to recruit a new freshman. The answer: have a greater stock of players and don't be afraid to have players that take a couple of years to mature. The prime example is Goldwire, who has become a very good college hoopster and even -- believe it or not -- a decent shooter.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    With all due respect (and I do have an immense amount of respect for you) we see this same story play out every year. So-and-so player is “too talented not to play.” And every year we see K cut his rotation down to 7 or 8. Last year was the exception to the rule, but as others have said by the end of the season if we’re talking about minutes in close games against competitive opponents we were still only playing 7 or 8 guys.

    I could absolutely see a world in which Coleman, Brakefield, Tapé, Williams, Goldwire, Hurt, or even one of Roach or Steward gets buried on the bench.
    Was I not clear in my second paragraph? I agree that in close games against competitive opponents, we'll probably only be playing 8 guys. And (though I didn't say this in my earlier post), I'd be less surprised if that was 7 guys than I would if it were 9. And 10 would be a complete shock.

    What I meant in my first paragraph is it's hard to figure who will be left out. Tapé is a senior who was recruited for a reason and looks pretty strong offensively; Williams is a true 7-footer who looks like he could be a defensive force with good coordination around the offensive basket; Brakefield was very impressive and unexpectedly polished in the scrimmage video; Goldwire is a senior who has improved every year; Baker is a great shooter whose all-around game appears to have improved; Hurt, Roach, and Steward will all probably end up playing in the NBA after they finish at Duke. The idea that two or three of those guys will hardly play come the end of the season is a difficult one, even if it's likely to happen.
    Last edited by Kedsy; 10-09-2020 at 10:42 PM.

  5. #5
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    Question for the minutes masses...

    How often do guys see their minutes drop by more than maybe a minute or two from year-to-year. I have not done the research, but I think it is fairly rare. I'm not talking about a guy going from 33 down to 30 minutes per game, that can happen without really indicating that the player's role on the team has change. For example, Grayson fell from 36.6mpg as a soph to 29.6mpg as a junior, but it did not mean Grayson's role had meaningfully changed as a junior. Jack White fell from 20 mpg as a juinor to 15 mpg as a senior, but, again, I don't feel like Jack's role was appreciably different on those two teams.

    I guess I am asking, how often does someone go from being a rotation player to a non-rotation player when they get older? I feel like that is really rare.

    So, with that in mind, I think we can say pretty definitively that Jordan Goldwire (24.1 mpg last season), Wendell Moore (24.0mpg), and Matthew Hurt (20.5mpg) are all going to be pretty significant players this coming season. Similarly, it would be quite surprising if Joey Baker (12.1mpg) failed to have a significant rotation role. So, that's 4 guys where it would be a shock if they were not significant rotation pieces.

    As others have mentioned, the very experienced Patrick Tape likely had long conversations with the coaching staff about his role before coming to Duke. Unlike a freshman, who's performance against D1 players can be tougher to project, Tape is more of a finished product. It would be shocking to me if he was brought in as K's first ever grad transfer and K did not have a good idea of what kind of role Tape would play. Put another way, I will be shocked if Tape plays less than 15mpg. That's 5.

    Jalen Johnson, by virtue of his recruiting ranking, would appear to be a lock to be in the rotation. That's 6.

    So, the question is really the other guys. Will K only find room for 2 of them (if we go on recruiting rankings, that means Roach and Steward)? I suspect we will see 9 guys getting double-digit minutes and there will be games where we play all 11 scholarship players (unless someone decides to redshirt, which I think is unlikely). I could see something where Brakefield, Coleman, and Williams are each given chances and -- depending on matchups -- one plays more one game while another gets more run in a different game.

    -Jason "I truly think there is a chance K starts all 5 experienced players at some point... how anti-Duke would that be?!?!" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Question for the minutes masses...

    How often do guys see their minutes drop by more than maybe a minute or two from year-to-year. I have not done the research, but I think it is fairly rare. I'm not talking about a guy going from 33 down to 30 minutes per game, that can happen without really indicating that the player's role on the team has change. For example, Grayson fell from 36.6mpg as a soph to 29.6mpg as a junior, but it did not mean Grayson's role had meaningfully changed as a junior. Jack White fell from 20 mpg as a juinor to 15 mpg as a senior, but, again, I don't feel like Jack's role was appreciably different on those two teams.
    More than a minute or two? Here's a quick (non-comprehensive) list:

    Jack White 20.5 (2019) --> 15.6 (2020 -- and I do think his role changed; his last 9 games of 2020, Jack averaged ~6.5 mpg)
    Javin DeLaurier 16.3 (2019) --> 13.2 (2019)
    Rasheed Sulaimon 29.2 (2013) --> 24.9 (2014) --> 19.2 (2015)
    Andre Dawkins 22.4 (2012) --> 12.9 (2014)
    Greg Paulus 32.4 (2007) --> 27.7 (2008) --> 15.6 (2009)
    Dave McClure 21.7 (2007) --> 7.2 (2008)
    Nick Horvath 12.3 (2003) --> 5.9 (2004)
    Taymon Domzalski 20.4 (1996) --> 8.6 (1997) --> 7.2 (1998)
    Ricky Price 21.3 (1997) --> 4.6 (1998)
    Greg Newton 29.6 (1996) --> 20.8 (1997)
    John Smith 22.5 (1987) --> 15.7 (1988)

    The reason most guys don't have drastic reductions in minutes from year to year is they're still one of the top guys at their position on the team. If that stops being true, their minutes drop.

  7. #7
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    I think I am getting unreasonably excited about Mathew Hurt's potential this year based on the recent media availability and the spate of media attention that has followed.

    In short...
    -He's put on 20 pounds
    -He's focused on being a better perimeter defender and rebounder
    -He is in attack mode on offense and ready to exploit mismatches in the post

    Here's Scheyer from a piece in the Athletic:

    “He’s made an incredibly big jump, even from last year,” Scheyer says. “He has been our leading scorer. He’s scoring the ball from all over, shooting the ball with really great efficiency. He’s going in the post — I mean, he’s showing everything. And our thing for Matthew is just to take that jump mentally, where you believe you’re as good as anybody, because he is. And he’s been showing it. He’s been terrific.”

    That fires me up, especially because his comments about Wendell Moore were along the lines of, "He knows what he is capable of, now he just has to trust the work and show it on the court"...which isn't making me feel as confident about him making a leap this year.

    Using Hurt as a small ball 5 could really put a lot of shooting on the floor.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    Using Hurt as a small ball 5 could really put a lot of shooting on the floor.
    I agree with most of this, and think this is where we'll end up at the end of close games, but Matthew needs to shore up his interior defense to pull it off. You (and they) have only mentioned his perimeter defense. But if he can play good defense anywhere, he'll be a big part of this team.

    That said, assuming Roach, Moore, and Johnson are going to be on the floor a lot, and either Tapé or Williams are going to be out there for a decent amount, we're still not going to have "a lot of shooting on the floor." The only true shooters we have are Hurt, Baker, and Steward, and if all three are out there at the same time (will probably happen some but not all that much) it would give us a decent amount of shooting, but I still wouldn't call it a lot. And when just two of them (and sometimes just one) are out there, we'll be a bit short on shooting and have to rely on all three of those guys to consistently shoot high percentages.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I agree with most of this, and think this is where we'll end up at the end of close games, but Matthew needs to shore up his interior defense to pull it off. You (and they) have only mentioned his perimeter defense. But if he can play good defense anywhere, he'll be a big part of this team.

    That said, assuming Roach, Moore, and Johnson are going to be on the floor a lot, and either Tapé or Williams are going to be out there for a decent amount, we're still not going to have "a lot of shooting on the floor." The only true shooters we have are Hurt, Baker, and Steward, and if all three are out there at the same time (will probably happen some but not all that much) it would give us a decent amount of shooting, but I still wouldn't call it a lot. And when just two of them (and sometimes just one) are out there, we'll be a bit short on shooting and have to rely on all three of those guys to consistently shoot high percentages.
    All I have to go on as I think about our rotations is whichever media coverage seems to be coming out of the various media availabilities over the past few weeks. I know it is probably a fool's errand to base anything on that chatter, but I have to gobble whatever morsels come out.

    Props to Jason and the DBR Podcast gang because they've been on these media availabilities (as has Jim Sumner, so we are well covered here in DBR land) and the recent clips from Coach Scheyer gave me the following impressions (along with the stuff Brendan Marks is writing for the Athletic):

    -No one is talking about Jalen Johnson in a way that reflects the coverage usually given to our top recruit. The most I have heard is Scheyer saying something along the lines of, "He's trying to figure out where he fits, especially in the half court, but his passing is next level." Umm...that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.

    -Wendell Moore - in the Scheyer media availability, he said something along the lines of, "Wendell has to trust the work he's put in and make it happen on the court." Umm...that's not making me anticipate a breakout, either.

    Aside from the universal raves about Matthew Hurt (which does make me feel really good), the guy Scheyer pegged as being a huge surprise is Henry Coleman, probably our lowest ranked recruit.

    When you factor in the historically weak non-conference schedule (which could be because of COVID caution and because of the 20 game conference schedule), I am guessing that the team is a real work in progress with minutes up for grabs all over the place.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I agree with most of this, and think this is where we'll end up at the end of close games, but Matthew needs to shore up his interior defense to pull it off. You (and they) have only mentioned his perimeter defense. But if he can play good defense anywhere, he'll be a big part of this team.

    That said, assuming Roach, Moore, and Johnson are going to be on the floor a lot, and either Tapé or Williams are going to be out there for a decent amount, we're still not going to have "a lot of shooting on the floor." The only true shooters we have are Hurt, Baker, and Steward, and if all three are out there at the same time (will probably happen some but not all that much) it would give us a decent amount of shooting, but I still wouldn't call it a lot. And when just two of them (and sometimes just one) are out there, we'll be a bit short on shooting and have to rely on all three of those guys to consistently shoot high percentages.
    What makes you think Roach is getting on the floor a lot? I get he's our second best recruit, but he's ranked #20 in RSCI, which isn't great. I think three factors may impact his playing time (outside of his ranking): 1) even though the ACL tear was more than a year ago, it's still a risk. Hopefully he plays like Dennis Smith at NCSU. 2) he's not a good shooter, and having Roach, Moore, and Johnson out there isn't great for spacing. 3) there are other options for playing the point who may provide other attributes (Johnson, who is great at everything except shooting. DJ, who is a great shooter but not a pure PG and lacks any meaningful weight. Goldwire, who is a senior leader and excellent defender but arguably the worst shooter on the team. Moore, who played a lot of point forward last year).

    I'm not suggesting Roach will not play a lot of minutes. I'm just not confident he'll play anywhere near the minutes as Moore, Johnson, and Hurt, the trio who I believe will lead the team in minutes. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Roach played 15 min a game or 35 min a game; he's the one recruit I don't have a good handle on from a playing minutes standpoint.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    Aside from the universal raves about Matthew Hurt (which does make me feel really good), the guy Scheyer pegged as being a huge surprise is Henry Coleman, probably our lowest ranked recruit.
    Excited for the season, always excited to see Freshman, but please remember that the coaches can use public comments to build up/motivate players. Coleman being a surprise could mean they thought he was going to be a non-rotation player and now he has a shot to make the rotation. It could also mean he'll be the top player on the team. :shrug:

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    What makes you think Roach is getting on the floor a lot? I get he's our second best recruit, but he's ranked #20 in RSCI, which isn't great. I think three factors may impact his playing time (outside of his ranking): 1) even though the ACL tear was more than a year ago, it's still a risk. Hopefully he plays like Dennis Smith at NCSU. 2) he's not a good shooter, and having Roach, Moore, and Johnson out there isn't great for spacing. 3) there are other options for playing the point who may provide other attributes (Johnson, who is great at everything except shooting. DJ, who is a great shooter but not a pure PG and lacks any meaningful weight. Goldwire, who is a senior leader and excellent defender but arguably the worst shooter on the team. Moore, who played a lot of point forward last year).

    I'm not suggesting Roach will not play a lot of minutes. I'm just not confident he'll play anywhere near the minutes as Moore, Johnson, and Hurt, the trio who I believe will lead the team in minutes. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Roach played 15 min a game or 35 min a game; he's the one recruit I don't have a good handle on from a playing minutes standpoint.
    I think J-Gold has earned the right to say he is an above-average shooter, or an above-break-even shooter. He shot 35% from 3 and almost 50% from the floor last year. He was terrible his 1st 2 years and even started his Jr year poorly, but he really hit his stride there and ended the season being a decent offensive option. Wendell Moore shot 21% on 3s although a much lower volume, so i think he has a pretty firm grip on the "worst shooter" label.

  13. #13
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    If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...

    Hurt - 32+ mpg
    Moore - 27-30 mpg
    Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
    Baker - 20-23 mpg
    Johnson - 18-21 mpg
    Roach 18-21 mpg
    Steward - 17-20 mpg
    Williams - 15-18 mpg
    Tape - 11-14 mpg
    Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
    Coleman - 6-9 mpg

    -Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...

    Hurt - 32+ mpg
    Moore - 27-30 mpg
    Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
    Baker - 20-23 mpg
    Johnson - 18-21 mpg
    Roach 18-21 mpg
    Steward - 17-20 mpg
    Williams - 15-18 mpg
    Tape - 11-14 mpg
    Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
    Coleman - 6-9 mpg

    -Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans
    Goldwire + Baker > Johnson is a helluva prediction. I know Johnson's ranking collapsed during his senior year, but I believe that's more of a reflection of his lack of playing through bouncing from one school to the next moreso than his talent. I think his kid is a real top 5 talent.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Goldwire + Baker > Johnson is a helluva prediction. I know Johnson's ranking collapsed during his senior year, but I believe that's more of a reflection of his lack of playing through bouncing from one school to the next moreso than his talent. I think his kid is a real top 5 talent.
    Agreed. I'd be gob-smacked if Johnson isn't in the top three in minutes played, along with Hurt and Moore.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    Excited for the season, always excited to see Freshman, but please remember that the coaches can use public comments to build up/motivate players. Coleman being a surprise could mean they thought he was going to be a non-rotation player and now he has a shot to make the rotation. It could also mean he'll be the top player on the team. :shrug:
    Coleman is probably a very hard worker AND is very strong/physical- that will get you a lot of love from the coaching staff.
    dukelifer

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...

    Hurt - 32+ mpg
    Moore - 27-30 mpg
    Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
    Baker - 20-23 mpg
    Johnson - 18-21 mpg
    Roach 18-21 mpg
    Steward - 17-20 mpg
    Williams - 15-18 mpg
    Tape - 11-14 mpg
    Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
    Coleman - 6-9 mpg

    -Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans
    Johnson getting so few minutes is a bold prediction. I'll make one equally bold: if your minutes distribution is accurate, Duke will end the season outside the top 10, and probably outside the top 15.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Johnson getting so few minutes is a bold prediction. I'll make one equally bold: if your minutes distribution is accurate, Duke will end the season outside the top 10, and probably outside the top 15.
    Explain please

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by 53n206 View Post
    Explain please
    All right, I'll answer but I'm doing it under protest, because I don't really like to say things that could be construed as badmouthing the Duke team or its players.

    The top four guys on Jason's minute chart are all basically one-dimensional players. And the guys who should be our superstar, PG, sharpshooter, and best athletes are all relegated to minutes in the teens (meaning they haven't lived up to billing). Plus, not to pick on Jordan Goldwire, who has improved immensely over his career and now looks like a valuable glue guy and true ACC player, but he's just not a guy who you want with the third-most minutes on a top 10 team. Finally, if on a Coach K team we're really playing 10 guys double-figure minutes, with an 11th player close to double-figures, it means too few of our players stepped up to the level you need to be a top 10 team. And you're not going to make up for those deficiencies by having great shooters (only two good shooters among the top 5 minutes guys), or a great, dynamic PG (no clear PG on that team), or an incredible lockdown defense (not with Hurt and Baker playing so many minutes).

    Or, if you want to look at it another way, our top 3 minutes guys last year were Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, and Vernon Carey. Compare that to Hurt, Moore, and Goldwire. And when the season ended last season, Duke was ranked #11.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If I had to guess right now, I think things are probably looking like this at the moment...

    Hurt - 32+ mpg
    Moore - 27-30 mpg
    Goldwire - 24-27 mpg
    Baker - 20-23 mpg
    Johnson - 18-21 mpg
    Roach 18-21 mpg
    Steward - 17-20 mpg
    Williams - 15-18 mpg
    Tape - 11-14 mpg
    Brakefield - 9-12 mpg
    Coleman - 6-9 mpg

    -Jason "lots of time until the season starts and guys could elevate their role, for sure... but I do think we will play 11 a lot, especially early in the season" Evans
    So, here is how I would defend some of the controversial stuff in my predictions:

    Hurt -- He has clearly been the best player in practice. Matt is the highest rated recruit on the team from any class and is a rare top ten recruit who returned for his soph season. By all accounts, he is just torching the nets in practice on a daily basis (not just Scheyer saying this, DJ Steward told me that Hurt was the best player in practice too). He's going to lead the team in scoring and playing mid-30s minutes should not be controversial for him.

    Goldwire - Jordan is a senior who averaged 24+ minutes per game last year. Expecting his minutes to increase by a few should not be controversial.

    Moore - Wendell also averaged 24 mins per game a year ago. A year of growth and confidence should also allow him to play more.

    Johnson - I am not ragging on the kid but it is telling to me that we have barely seen him do anything in the videos from practice so far and then Scheyer basically said, "he's still trying to figure out what he is good at so he can build on that" when I was chatting with him a few days ago. No, Scheyer did not say it in those words, but it is not hard to read between the lines. Yes, JJ is great on the break and is an excellent passer, but if he was one of the best offensive or defensive players on the team, I am sure Scheyer would have found a way to mention that rather than talking about him "finding his base."

    The rest just sorta filled in themselves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Finally, if on a Coach K team we're really playing 10 guys double-figure minutes, with an 11th player close to double-figures, it means too few of our players stepped up to the level you need to be a top 10 team.
    I know Coach K does not use his bench the way other coaches do, but I would merely point out that FSU played 11 guys 9+ minutes per game a year ago and it did not keep them from being a top 10 team and a somewhat trendy Final Four pick (if we had been able to play a NCAA tournament).

    -Jason "I suspect that as the season moves along, some players will step up and others will fall back... my minute distribution was what I expect RIGHT NOW. Things could easily change" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

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