One question I have is how good Jalen Johnson is going to be? By all accounts a one-and-done, and it would seem he will be Duke's most talented player this season, but based on his recruiting ranking (#11 RSCI), the comparisons shouldn't be to Jabari Parker (#3) or Brandon Ingram (#4) or Jayson Tatum (#3). in most seasons, Duke players in this range are not surefire stars.
Below is a table of all Duke players in the RSCI era ranked from #9 to #14, along with their freshman year performance.
Code:
Player Fr Year RSCI fr mpg fr ppg Yrs in college
Gerald Henderson 2007 10 19.3 6.8 3
Jalen Johnson 2021 11 ? ? ?
Marques Bolden 2017 11 6.5 1.5 3
JJ Redick 2003 11 30.7 15.0 4
Matthew Hurt 2020 12 20.5 9.7 2 (so far)
Rasheed Sulaimon 2013 12 29.2 11.6 3
Tre Jones 2019 13 34.2 9.4 2
Derryck Thornton 2016 13 26.0 7.1 4*
Justise Winslow 2015 13 29.1 12.6 1
Greg Paulus 2006 13 32.3 6.7 4
Gary Trent 2018 14 33.9 14.5 1
Frank Jackson 2017 14 24.9 10.9 1
Chase Jeter 2016 14 7.9 1.9 4*
Ryan Kelly 2010 14 6.5 1.2 4
Shavlik Randolph 2003 14 19.2 8.2 4
* includes seasons played for schools other than Duke
As you can see, it's a mixed bag. Only 3 out of 14 (21%) went pro after one season, and an equal number couldn't even crack the rotation. Nine out of 14 (ten if Matthew Hurt stays for his junior year) stayed in college at least three seasons.
The best performances on this list came from shooting wings (Redick, Trent), and the worst were big men (Bolden, Jeter, Kelly). The other successful freshman seasons, while not necessarily shooting wings, almost all could still shoot (Hurt: 39% from three; Jackson: 40%; Winslow: 42%; Sulaimon: 37%; Randolph: 37%), or were lead guards (Tre Jones, Derryck Thornton, Greg Paulus).
According to Johnson's scouting report, he's not a very good shooter. The best comparison on this list is probably Gerald Henderson, who was shorter than Johnson but like Johnson was primarily a slasher without much of a shot. Next best would be guys like Justise Winslow or Shavlik Randolph, who were both big contributors but not really stars. Well, maybe Winslow was a star, but mostly because of his defense, which I haven't heard is one of Jalen's defining characteristics.
Maybe Wendell Moore can have a Winslow-like season, and maybe Matthew Hurt can be an upperclassman Ryan Kelly, but this Duke team needs a *star*. I hope Jalen Johnson can rise to the challenge.