FB: Virginia 38, Duke 20

[jimsumner]

I agree that perpetually running on first down is generally a losing strategy, and I believe there are analytics that this is true even at the pro level.

Remember the old saying, "There are only three things that can happen on a passing play, and two of them are bad?" Poppycock. What about a run play? Let's look at the possibilities, shall we?

1) Fumble the handoff.
2) Get stuffed at the line of scrimmage.
3) Fumble the ball after a gain.
4) Get tackled in the backfield for a loss.
5) Make a small gain (<3 yards)
6) Make a medium gain (6-9 yards)
7) Break one (>9 yards).

So, by my calculation, on a first down, there are 7 things that can happen, and 5 of them are bad.

A curious take on things. Teams--not even Duke--don't fumble 28.6 percent of the time. And why are 2 and 4 different things? Maybe a run of 9 plus yards, a run of 12 plus yards, a run of 15 plus yards, a run of 18 plus yards, et. al. are all different possibilities.

There's nothing inherently wrong with running on first down. Virginia Tech ran on first down against NC State last week and it seemed to work out pretty well for them. But you have to be good at it, which Duke isn't, and it can't be predictable, which Duke is.

I remember some conversations I had with Zac Roper about throwing deep on first down. In his view the risks of likely going 2nd-and-10 outweighed the unlikely rewards of hitting a big one downfield. That's a great attitude if you are dominant at the line-of-scrimmage. Which Duke isn't.

[tommy]

I agree that perpetually running on first down is generally a losing strategy, and I believe there are analytics that this is true even at the pro level.

Remember the old saying, "There are only three things that can happen on a passing play, and two of them are bad?" Poppycock. What about a run play? Let's look at the possibilities, shall we?

1) Fumble the handoff.
2) Get stuffed at the line of scrimmage.
3) Fumble the ball after a gain.
4) Get tackled in the backfield for a loss.
5) Make a small gain (<3 yards)
6) Make a medium gain (6-9 yards)
7) Break one (>9 yards).

So, by my calculation, on a first down, there are 7 things that can happen, and 5 of them are bad.

It was Woody Hayes, and the quote was "Three things can happen when you throw a forward pass and two of them are bad." Which is true. Completion is good. Incompletion and interception are bad.

When it comes to running, if you want to simplify it to the level that Woody did, you'd have to say that three things can happen when you run the ball, and two of them are bad. Run for positive yardage is good. Run for negative or no yardage is bad, as is fumbling.

But both of those are very much oversimplifications of the kinds of considerations that go into playcalling, obviously.

[sagegrouse]

It was Woody Hayes, and the quote was "Three things can happen when you throw a forward pass and two of them are bad." Which is true. Completion is good. Incompletion and interception are bad.

When it comes to running, if you want to simplify it to the level that Woody did, you'd have to say that three things can happen when you run the ball, and two of them are bad. Run for positive yardage is good. Run for negative or no yardage is bad, as is fumbling.

But both of those are very much oversimplifications of the kinds of considerations that go into playcalling, obviously.

Darrell Royal at Texas.

[arnie]

Darrell Royal at Texas.

If Woody Hayes didn’t say it, he certainly believed it (as well as attacking players on other teams that made great plays). A THE Ohio’s State tradition.

[soflabluedevil]

Actually I don't. Can you refresh us on that?

March 27, 2014-although he covered his bets by saying he would be at Duke for 5 years or more. Of course that means he could say he might coach another (open ended) X number of years beyond 5.
He was the best coach in NCAA ball and maybe all of bball for many years - just no longer. His time is past and we owe him untold thanks, but he would do himself and Duke a great favor by stepping down. Unfortunately his ego and rigidity will not allow such

[jimsumner]

March 27, 2014-although he covered his bets by saying he would be at Duke for 5 years or more. Of course that means he could say he might coach another (open ended) X number of years beyond 5.
He was the best coach in NCAA ball and maybe all of bball for many years - just no longer. His time is past and we owe him untold thanks, but he would do himself and Duke a great favor by stepping down. Unfortunately his ego and rigidity will not allow such

"or more" seems like a not insignificant part of the sentence.

[soflabluedevil]

"or more" seems like a not insignificant part of the sentence.

Certainly one way to look at it. So how long should he coach-until he’s 80? 85? Or until he literally dies in office, the route most of our S. Ct. Justices take?

[budwom]

Not sure where things stand, but Cut's contract extends thru 2022 I think, so this is often the time when coaches ask for and get extensions...

[Acymetric]

Not sure where things stand, but Cut's contract extends thru 2022 I think, so this is often the time when coaches ask for and get extensions...

Technically June 30, 2023.