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  1. #881
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Devilhorse - I’m curious if you know or can figure out the answer - how far out would we know *where* an asteroid headed for earth would hit? When would we know it was likely to hit China vs North America vs Australia, etc? Would we be able to predict say, what country it will hit a day or two before it struck? This seems like it would be right up your ally.
    There is a lot of uncertainty built into these predictions. Anything approaching us outside of earth's orbit is easier to calculate because there is little additional perturbation; however we're pretty good at finding Near Earth Asteroids.

    A lot of the asteroids zooming by seem to be at about 20,000 Miles Per Hour clip (this is a big SWAG). That means it would take 50 hours to travel a million miles. So any asteroid coming toward us from the sun (93 million miles away) would take 194 Days to get here, if detected as soon as it passes the sun.

    Near Earth Asteroids can have their orbits calculated fairly accurately. So we would know approximately when it would hit the earth. That would give us approximately the position on earth that would be facing the asteroid at any given time. The asteroid that just passed earth is predicted to be in our vicinity again in 2046; but the odds of it hitting earth are very low (if you consider 1/10000 low).

    Of course approximations would get better as the object approached or even passed by (like the latest asteroid).

    Remember Shoemaker Levy 9? The string of pearls comet that struck Jupiter (Jupiter saves us from most of the comets and asteroids in the ecliptic). They predicted the time/date of impact on Jupiter. SL9 was discovered (by experienced amateurs) March 24, 1993 and it hit Jupiter on July 16-24, 1994. So, a year or so with present technology is a good guess I suppose. Technology for detection and destruction/alteringCourse will constantly improve.

    Small perturbations early in the orbit can cause a big change years later.

    May you live in interesting times.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 03-23-2023 at 10:00 PM.

  2. #882
    Celestial convergence again:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1640118391494123520

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #883
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Celestial convergence again:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1640118391494123520

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    And we are expecting clouds and rain
    In my area .

  4. #884
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    And we are expecting clouds and rain
    In my area .
    So long as were not expecting any dimensional boundary issues Im ok.

    -jk

  5. #885
    Some fun perspective with various solar system rocks:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1646218590880923649

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #886

    The JUICE is Loose

    The european space agency launched the JUICE space probe 2 days ago:
    https://www.space.com/europe-juice-j...-13-highlights

    It will be exploring Jupiter and its 3 biggest icy moons.

    Of course, the circuitous route will be using all kinds of gravity assists to place it just where they want, at a lower speed so it can have time to do its' work. Nothing is expected to be of major interest till early in the next decade.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #887

    Watch SpaceX Launch

    For those interested in watching today's SpaceX launch, here is how to do it:
    https://www.space.com/spacex-starshi...ght-livestream

    This is test of the Super Heavy launch platform.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #888
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    For those interested in watching today's SpaceX launch, here is how to do it:
    https://www.space.com/spacex-starshi...ght-livestream

    This is test of the Super Heavy launch platform.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Unfortunately launch scrapped for now due to pressurization issue.

  9. #889
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Unfortunately launch scrapped for now due to pressurization issue.
    It will take (a minimum of) 48 hours to recycle/repair. See you on Wednesday, perhaps.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #890
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    better safe than sorry
    "One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese

  11. #891
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    It will take (a minimum of) 48 hours to recycle/repair. See you on Wednesday, perhaps.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Rescheduled for 9:28am EDT Thursday 4/20/2023

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #892
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Rescheduled for 9:28am EDT Thursday 4/20/2023

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    6597810_tommychongpic.jpg
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #893
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    It will take (a minimum of) 48 hours to recycle/repair. See you on Wednesday, perhaps.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Trying again this morning sometime between 9:30am EST and 10:30am.

    This link will be active 45 minutes before (the supposed) launch.
    https://www.spacex.com/launches/miss...ip-flight-test


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #894
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    we have liftoff!

    and it lasted about 4 minutes.

    -jk

  15. #895
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    we have liftoff!

    and it lasted about 4 minutes.

    -jk
    At least 3 (count up to 7) of the 33 engines didn't ignite, impacting stability. But they're happy at SpaceX.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #896
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    we have liftoff!

    and it lasted about 4 minutes.

    -jk
    Why bring up OPK honeymoon here?

  17. #897
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    At least 3 (count up to 7) of the 33 engines didn't ignite, impacting stability. But they're happy at SpaceX.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Gotta love whoever coined "rapid unscheduled disassembly".

    -jk

  18. #898
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    we have liftoff!

    and it lasted about 4 minutes.

    -jk
    Quote Originally Posted by fidel View Post
    Why bring up OPK honeymoon here?
    I’ll have you know that Satisfaction by The Rolling Stones is only 3’ 45”.

    That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
    I do not think that word means what you think it means.

  19. #899
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I’ll have you know that Satisfaction by The Rolling Stones is only 3’ 45”.

    That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
    The title -


    But the lyrics -

  20. #900
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Gotta love whoever coined "rapid unscheduled disassembly".
    The phrase I heard was "involuntary exothermic expansion".

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