Celestial convergence again:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1640118391494123520
Larry
DevilHorse
There is a lot of uncertainty built into these predictions. Anything approaching us outside of earth's orbit is easier to calculate because there is little additional perturbation; however we're pretty good at finding Near Earth Asteroids.
A lot of the asteroids zooming by seem to be at about 20,000 Miles Per Hour clip (this is a big SWAG). That means it would take 50 hours to travel a million miles. So any asteroid coming toward us from the sun (93 million miles away) would take 194 Days to get here, if detected as soon as it passes the sun.
Near Earth Asteroids can have their orbits calculated fairly accurately. So we would know approximately when it would hit the earth. That would give us approximately the position on earth that would be facing the asteroid at any given time. The asteroid that just passed earth is predicted to be in our vicinity again in 2046; but the odds of it hitting earth are very low (if you consider 1/10000 low).
Of course approximations would get better as the object approached or even passed by (like the latest asteroid).
Remember Shoemaker Levy 9? The string of pearls comet that struck Jupiter (Jupiter saves us from most of the comets and asteroids in the ecliptic). They predicted the time/date of impact on Jupiter. SL9 was discovered (by experienced amateurs) March 24, 1993 and it hit Jupiter on July 16-24, 1994. So, a year or so with present technology is a good guess I suppose. Technology for detection and destruction/alteringCourse will constantly improve.
Small perturbations early in the orbit can cause a big change years later.
May you live in interesting times.
Larry
DevilHorse
Last edited by DevilHorse; 03-23-2023 at 10:00 PM.
Celestial convergence again:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1640118391494123520
Larry
DevilHorse
Some fun perspective with various solar system rocks:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1646218590880923649
Larry
DevilHorse
The european space agency launched the JUICE space probe 2 days ago:
https://www.space.com/europe-juice-j...-13-highlights
It will be exploring Jupiter and its 3 biggest icy moons.
Of course, the circuitous route will be using all kinds of gravity assists to place it just where they want, at a lower speed so it can have time to do its' work. Nothing is expected to be of major interest till early in the next decade.
Larry
DevilHorse
For those interested in watching today's SpaceX launch, here is how to do it:
https://www.space.com/spacex-starshi...ght-livestream
This is test of the Super Heavy launch platform.
Larry
DevilHorse
better safe than sorry
"One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
Trying again this morning sometime between 9:30am EST and 10:30am.
This link will be active 45 minutes before (the supposed) launch.
https://www.spacex.com/launches/miss...ip-flight-test
Larry
DevilHorse
we have liftoff!
and it lasted about 4 minutes.
-jk