I think you have largely summarized the main issues. If I recall, in 2016 NFL ratings were bad partially because the election was drawing attention away. So that factors into the "competition for eyeballs" bucket. I believe that the measures for counting those who don't watch through traditional cable/satellite packages are also not clear, so some of those people might not be counted in the publicized numbers.
I would like to see year-over-year numbers for September/October total sports viewership. With all of the major pro sports playing at once, plus college football, major golf and tennis tournaments mixed in, there was just a lot going on. But was the total number of people watching sports similar, but just spread out across more events? Not clear.
It was likely a blip on the ratings, but I'm guessing that Miami was not a huge draw for the finals compared to some other alternatives. I really enjoyed watching them play, but they don't have as much name recognition as other teams.
As one who watched much more basketball this year than in years past, I would also like to blame it having to see those horrible "Real Chris Paul" State Farm commercials over and over again for reducing viewership.
After a spring/early summer with no sports other than replays, yesterday had a French Open Final, a full slate of NFL games (including a really compelling Sunday night contest), a PGA tournament that finished playoff, an LPGA major, ALCS Game 1, and an NBA finals game. Actually too much sports to watch. I'm an MLB fan and completely missed that game between the NFL and NBA.
...because who wants to watch the Lakers buy another championship. BORING
While I applaud Adam Silver for getting the season back on track, nothing about the NBA in the bubble engendered any excitement - at least for me. Watching the game with video generated fans in the stands was just weird.
And there is something increasingly boring and unappetizing about superstars stacking teams with other superstars so they can win.
The Lakers left the stadium and forgot Quinn. Quinn posts to JR Smith live feed and hilarity ensues...
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/10/12/qu...ls-celebration
I do think that a large number of fans were turned away by the social justice messaging that the NBA put forth, which is unfortunate. Having to compete with the other leagues is also a big factor, and I will add that older fans with kids just don't have the same amount of down time to watch games as they did in non-pandemic times, while younger fans are now spending all day in front of a screen and may not want to spend their leisure time watching more TV. Plus you can't go out to a bar to watch a game or invite friends over to watch, it's just watching at home by yourself, and that probably doesn't appeal to as many people.
When the Lakers had a dominant game 1 and the Heat had all those injuries, that likely led many to feel that the Finals were a foregone conclusion and there was no reason to watch. The Heat were able to push them just a bit, but I think people's attention went elsewhere. Which is too bad because these playoffs featured some amazingly high level ball. We saw lots of young stars emerge, and the league did a tremendous job creating the bubble and having zero positive COVID tests.
Anyone seen the numbers? From the talking heads I tend to hear, it's football that drives the ratings ship, by far. Unless that has changed, I doubt the messaging had a negative effect. It's just that you don't want to go up against football, period.
It is no accident that Wilt Chamberlain ended his career with the Lakers. It is no accident that Kareem forced a trade between the Bucks and the Lakers.
It is a lot easier now, to be sure.
NY Times quote from Kareem in 1975:
From "The Ringer" on the 50th anniversary of the Wilt-to-LA deal in 2018:Abdul‐Jabbar, a 7‐foot‐3‐inch center, had asked to be traded last season because of his growing disenchantment with a city best known for beer and bratwurst.
“I'm not criticizing the people here,” said the 28‐year‐old superstar. “But Milwaukee is not what I'm all about. The things I relate to aren't in Milwaukee.”
But the move had only the veneer of a standard NBA trade. In actuality, it was Wilt, then two years younger than LeBron is now and with comparable influence, pulling off a shadow free-agency move, 20 years before unrestricted free agency existed—and in doing so, simultaneously creating basketball’s earliest superteam.
Sage Grouse
---------------------------------------
'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013