Major League Baseball 2020

[JasonEvans]

Today's Cardinals-Brewers game has been cancelled due to a positive Covid test.

Something like 1/5th of all the games scheduled for this weekend are now on hold. The Marlins now have 19 players on the team who have the disease (how do they play any games for the next two weeks?)

Odds baseball is still being played on Monday... I'd say it is no more than 40%.

[El_Diablo]

Phoenix will have a high temperature of 115 degrees today. Over the next ten days, the lowest high will be 107 degrees (most days are 110 or higher). There is a reason outdoor sports do not take place in Arizona during the summer.

The pool of MLB players that would need to be isolated is 1800 players (compared to 330 for the NBA at the start, dropping to 240 in mid-August).

The amount of time MLB players would need to be isolated would be more than double the NBA players, pre-playoffs. Playoffs would be about the same.

Apparently the Marlins’ outbreak occurred after some late night outing to an Atlanta strip club (not confirmed exactly where it started though, as tracing is not exact)...that type of decision-making seems like much more of a problem than having to travel to different ballparks.

[CDu]

Today's Cardinals-Brewers game has been cancelled due to a positive Covid test.

Something like 1/5th of all the games scheduled for this weekend are now on hold. The Marlins now have 19 players on the team who have the disease (how do they play any games for the next two weeks?)

Odds baseball is still being played on Monday... I'd say it is no more than 40%.

If the Marlins are able to play, it would have to be with a bunch of guys from their 60-man list (that's the point of the 60-man list). Essentially a "split squad" Spring Training roster at this point though.

But yeah, there is a very good chance that the plug gets pulled this weekend. So far the Marlins, Phillies, and Cardinals have had multiple positive tests this week. As soon as another team has any positive tests, I suspect they will pull the plug. The Cardinals' positives are especially concerning as they were not linked to the Marlins outbreak.

[wilson]

Baseball's crazy strong union seems to have shot itself in the foot here. They were, as I understand, the ones who were adamantly against the "bubble" approach, which seems to be working well for the NBA and well-ish for MLS, and was wildly successful for The Basketball Tournament. If I were a betting man (which I am very not), I'd put a tidy sum on this year's baseball season going unfinished.

[budwom]

Baseball's crazy strong union seems to have shot itself in the foot here. They were, as I understand, the ones who were adamantly against the "bubble" approach, which seems to be working well for the NBA and well-ish for MLS, and was wildly successful for The Basketball Tournament. If I were a betting man (which I am very not), I'd put a tidy sum on this year's baseball season going unfinished.

But where could they possibly bubble-ize baseball, since you need more games per day than the NBA?

[wilson]

But where could they possibly bubble-ize baseball, since you need more games per day than the NBA?

I argued that there should have been a temporary realignment, with a west coast site, a midwest site, and an east coast site. 10 teams per site, 3 games per day could have more or less gotten the job done with a truncated number of games. Add a fourth, say, northwest? site if ~9 games per day isn't enough. Four geographic divisions, first and second place teams to the playoffs, west vs. east or whatever in the World Series. Wouldn't have been that hard to figure out in my opinion.

[jv001]

Today's Cardinals-Brewers game has been cancelled due to a positive Covid test.

Something like 1/5th of all the games scheduled for this weekend are now on hold. The Marlins now have 19 players on the team who have the disease (how do they play any games for the next two weeks?)

Odds baseball is still being played on Monday... I'd say it is no more than 40%.

The Cardinals had 4 players test positive before games actually began. Three pitchers and one position player were late joining the club because of testing positive. A shortened season may turn into a DNP.

GoDuke!

[CDu]

I argued that there should have been a temporary realignment, with a west coast site, a midwest site, and an east coast site. 10 teams per site, 3 games per day could have more or less gotten the job done with a truncated number of games. Add a fourth, say, northwest? site if ~9 games per day isn't enough. Four geographic divisions, first and second place teams to the playoffs, west vs. east or whatever in the World Series. Wouldn't have been that hard to figure out in my opinion.

I suspect the big pushback to that was "tradition": wanting to keep the divisional structure and regular opponents as much as possible. But even still, having 6 bubble sites (one for each division) would have been preferable.

[budwom]

I argued that there should have been a temporary realignment, with a west coast site, a midwest site, and an east coast site. 10 teams per site, 3 games per day could have more or less gotten the job done with a truncated number of games. Add a fourth, say, northwest? site if ~9 games per day isn't enough. Four geographic divisions, first and second place teams to the playoffs, west vs. east or whatever in the World Series. Wouldn't have been that hard to figure out in my opinion.

yeah, that could have worked...not ultra easy, gotta manage four bubbles that way...personally I don't think anything is going to work, but maybe the NBA can pull it off...

[JasonEvans]

But where could they possibly bubble-ize baseball, since you need more games per day than the NBA?

My suggestion would have been multiple bubbles, maybe 4 of them. It would keep league alignments but toss divisions out the window. Divide the NL and AL in half (do it regionally) and everyone just plays games against the other teams in their bubble. I know a baseball field is a lot bigger than a basketball court, but you could find 3 or 4 fields in an area to make it work because you do not need fields that can accommodate 40k+ fans, you just need fields that are big enough so homeruns are not too easy. Local minor league or even college fields will probably work. When the 60-game regular season is done, the top 4 teams in each of the bubbles move to a new bubble where they play a 16-team playoff that culminates in the NL champ facing the AL champ in the World Series.

It really isn't that difficult. As the NBA has shown, the key is creating an atmosphere where players cannot act stupid and put themselves in danger.

[DU82]

My suggestion would have been multiple bubbles, maybe 4 of them. It would keep league alignments but toss divisions out the window. Divide the NL and AL in half (do it regionally) and everyone just plays games against the other teams in their bubble. I know a baseball field is a lot bigger than a basketball court, but you could find 3 or 4 fields in an area to make it work because you do not need fields that can accommodate 40k+ fans, you just need fields that are big enough so homeruns are not too easy. Local minor league or even college fields will probably work. When the 60-game regular season is done, the top 4 teams in each of the bubbles move to a new bubble where they play a 16-team playoff that culminates in the NL champ facing the AL champ in the World Series.

It really isn't that difficult. As the NBA has shown, the key is creating an atmosphere where players cannot act stupid and put themselves in danger.

Not that easy. The parks need to be of appropriate quality. That's why the Blue Jays went around to other MLB parks before settling on Buffalo as a last resort. There's clubhouse needs (four-six teams per site), including warm-up and rehab needs, there's field quality, lighting and other issues. For instance for the field needs, it has to be able to hold up to multiple games in a row, without causing problems to players, including catching cleats and knee injuries (including drainage, see Mantle, Mickey. This isn't 1951.) You also need sufficient isolating hotel space for the 500 or so people per group (figuring 50 people per team.)

Some minor league fields would be close; Buffalo needs some additional lighting and they'll have to figure out the clubhouse space, but it's almost there. I'd expect most of the AAA parks would be close. The Single A fields not so much. The DBAP needed upgrades just two years in so that they could jump from A to AAA. There's another big jump to MLB.

If I were to do bubbles, I'd set up the three pairs of divisions in NY, Chicago and LA or SF. Two MLB parks available for each, which makes the scheduling a little easier. Three games a night in one park, two in the other. (Balt-DC would probably work as well for the east.)

I'm sure the NBA upgraded some details with the Disney space, although it was probably closer than other non-typical arenas.

[budwom]

Baseball also entails a much larger entourage to bubble-ize...rosters of at least 30 players now, plus 30 more players who are supposed to be located nearby...(they were expected to be at nearby AAA facilities)...more trainers, equipment guys, etc.
It's possible, but quite a bit more complex than dealing with smaller NBA rosters..

[JasonEvans]

Sorry if I made it seem like the multiple bubble scenario would be an easy one to pull off for MLB. I know it would be complex and require some serious logistical work. But, I think it is doable and would be far preferable to the situation they are in now.

[El_Diablo]

Sorry if I made it seem like the multiple bubble scenario would be an easy one to pull off for MLB. I know it would be complex and require some serious logistical work. But, I think it is doable and would be far preferable to the situation they are in now.

Plus it would cause more players to opt out. For example: Mike Trout (the best player in the game) and his wife were 8 months pregnant at the start of the season. He’s probably not going to choose to miss out on the birth of his child and the first 3-4 months of his/her life isolated in some hotel just so he can play in some AA stadium for 1/3 of his normal pay. He is on a $430 million contract and would probably be fine waiting until next spring to play. The owners never actually presented the players a viable bubble plan, but any such scenario would have faced headwinds like this (in addition to the nightmarish logistical challenges).

[JasonEvans]

Plus it would cause more players to opt out. For example: Mike Trout (the best player in the game) and his wife were 8 months pregnant at the start of the season. He’s probably not going to choose to miss out on the birth of his child and the first 3-4 months of his/her life isolated in some hotel just so he can play in some AA stadium for 1/3 of his normal pay. He is on a $430 million contract and would probably be fine waiting until next spring to play. The owners never actually presented the players a viable bubble plan, but any such scenario would have faced headwinds like this (in addition to the nightmarish logistical challenges).

No reason baseball could not do like basketball and allow players to come in and out of the bubble... provided they submit to testing and quarantine when they reenter. Ask Zion, it works just fine.

[El_Diablo]

No reason baseball could not do like basketball and allow players to come in and out of the bubble... provided they submit to testing and quarantine when they reenter. Ask Zion, it works just fine.

Or you could ask Mike Trout how he would feel about it; he was already on record as being on the fence about opting out under the current plan. Many people would surely be willing to isolate themselves from their family for 4 months to work in sub-optimal conditions out of a hotel room for 1/3 of their normal salary, with the theoretical ability to leave the bubble and miss games while they submit to quarantine upon re-entry (but let's be real, who is really going to do that outside of an actual emergency?). The fact is not everyone was willing to do that, assuming MLB could even put together a viable plan for making it work logistically (which they did not).

I am not saying the current approach is ideal, as it's clearly not. But to say the players are somehow to blame for rejecting a half-baked hypothetical plan that was never formalized and no one seems to be able to agree on how it would have been implemented seems unfair to me.

[weezie]

Or you could ask Mike Trout how he would feel about it; he was already on record as being on the fence about opting out under the current plan...

Trout is expecting his first baby in August. I think that was his only decision but you're right on concerning other players and theirs.

[jv001]

The Cardinal-Brewer game for tonight has been cancelled. That's after the cancelling of the game yesterday. Two more Cardinal players and/or staff members tested positive today. Sunday's doubleheader is still on for now.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Baseball is toast.

[Tripping William]

Baseball is toast.

Quitter.