The good and the back from Matthew Hurt's Freshman year

[BlueDevilStop]

Going back through his game tape there were plenty of positives but weak areas as well. I'm interested to know what your expectations are. I'm excited for Matthew Hurt in year two.

https://bluedevilstop.com/matthew-hurt-season-review/

Matthew Hurt had an unspectacular yet solid Freshmen campaign. He was not on the level of some of the other recent 5 star Freshman that have put on the Duke jersey, but that was never expected of Hurt. Hurt had some very positive moments in year one but also stretches where he really struggled. To demonstrate how up and down his play was, look no further than his minutes played. In ACC play, Hurt had five games where he played 12 minutes or less and seven games where he played 25 or more minutes. There were nights when he was a liability and Coach K had to pull him entirely and others where he was a major asset.

[mkirsh]

The good is that he’s back

Thank you, thank you. I will be here all week (because there is absolutely nowhere to go)

[BlueDevilStop]

The good is that he’s back

This is very true!

[hallcity]

I’m reading a tweet from Matthew Hurt’s father that Matthew has gained 26 pounds in the off season. He’s at 240 now. If that’s muscle, he’s a completely different player. If it’s fat, I guess he’s still a different player but I’m hoping it’s muscle. I’m having trouble visualizing it either way. I’m pretty sure he won’t keep all that weight in either case.

[Kedsy]

Going back through his game tape there were plenty of positives but weak areas as well. I'm interested to know what your expectations are. I'm excited for Matthew Hurt in year two.

Clearly Matthew was a little too skinny, but I think your article oversimplifies a bit. For example, Matthew's FG% at the rim (67.1%) was better than Vernon Carey's (65.0%). So I don't think his struggles at times were simply that he wasn't strong enough to finish at the rim. Nor do I think looking at individual plays gives us the full picture -- part of Matthew's problem was he appeared to take some plays off. Similarly, while he showed some defensive instincts early in the season, by the end of the season either his quickness or his confidence wasn't good enough, because opposing teams consistently took advantage of him on that end.

Ultimately, I think Matthew Hurt's career track might look like Ryan Kelly's (their high school recruiting ranking was similar, Matthew was #12 RSCI while Ryan was #14 RSCI), except based on his statistics Matthew started at a higher level (his freshman offensive stats are kind of a cross between Kelly's soph and junior stats). Ryan gained some weight after his freshman season and got some confidence and became a very solid player his last three seasons. His defense especially improved; by his senior year Ryan Kelly was a strong defensive player. I'm heartened to hear that Matthew Hurt has gained some weight (assuming it's muscle) and I'd expect something similar to Kelly's junior season, with an outside possibility of looking like Kelly's senior season. That said, it's worth noting that Ryan Kelly never made an All-ACC team, though it's possible he would have made one his senior season if he hadn't gotten injured.

[duke96]

I’m reading a tweet from Matthew Hurt’s father that Matthew has gained 26 pounds in the off season. He’s at 240 now. If that’s muscle, he’s a completely different player. If it’s fat, I guess he’s still a different player but I’m hoping it’s muscle. I’m having trouble visualizing it either way. I’m pretty sure he won’t keep all that weight in either case.

The video of Matthew now in the tweet that he was responding to will help you visualize! Scroll up... looks like a different person, and it’s not fat. Good for him!

[superdave]

Clearly Matthew was a little too skinny, but I think your article oversimplifies a bit. For example, Matthew's FG% at the rim (67.1%) was better than Vernon Carey's (65.0%). So I don't think his struggles at times were simply that he wasn't strong enough to finish at the rim. Nor do I think looking at individual plays gives us the full picture -- part of Matthew's problem was he appeared to take some plays off. Similarly, while he showed some defensive instincts early in the season, by the end of the season either his quickness or his confidence wasn't good enough, because opposing teams consistently took advantage of him on that end.

Ultimately, I think Matthew Hurt's career track might look like Ryan Kelly's (their high school recruiting ranking was similar, Matthew was #12 RSCI while Ryan was #14 RSCI), except based on his statistics Matthew started at a higher level (his freshman offensive stats are kind of a cross between Kelly's soph and junior stats). Ryan gained some weight after his freshman season and got some confidence and became a very solid player his last three seasons. His defense especially improved; by his senior year Ryan Kelly was a strong defensive player. I'm heartened to hear that Matthew Hurt has gained some weight (assuming it's muscle) and I'd expect something similar to Kelly's junior season, with an outside possibility of looking like Kelly's senior season. That said, it's worth noting that Ryan Kelly never made an All-ACC team, though it's possible he would have made one his senior season if he hadn't gotten injured.

This sounds right. Hurt will get minutes because he's experienced, can shoot from outside and is really a strong scorer. If he's a good team defender and rebounder, he could average 30 minutes per game even with a crowded frontcourt.

Ryan Kelly averaged 12/5 as a junior and 13/5 as a senior. I think if Hurt gets to 6-7 rebounds a game, he will exceed 25 minutes and be the 3rd option on the team.

[Truth&Justise]

I’m reading a tweet from Matthew Hurt’s father that Matthew has gained 26 pounds in the off season. He’s at 240 now. If that’s muscle, he’s a completely different player. If it’s fat, I guess he’s still a different player but I’m hoping it’s muscle. I’m having trouble visualizing it either way. I’m pretty sure he won’t keep all that weight in either case.

My hope remains that, with that added heft, we can get away defensively with playing Hurt at center for some portions of each game. If a Johnson-Hurt front-court can hold its own on defense, at least for short stretches, then that really unlocks our offensive potential.

[rsvman]

The tweet also says that he has got 50K shots in since March. Honestly, that impresses me more than his weight gain.

[sagegrouse]

This sounds right. Hurt will get minutes because he's experienced, can shoot from outside and is really a strong scorer. If he's a good team defender and rebounder, he could average 30 minutes per game even with a crowded frontcourt.

Ryan Kelly averaged 12/5 as a junior and 13/5 as a senior. I think if Hurt gets to 6-7 rebounds a game, he will exceed 25 minutes and be the 3rd option on the team.

I won't gainsay Ryan Kelly's college abilities or his contribution to Duke. My observation* is that Matthew Hurt has touch and moves around the basket beyond what Kelly showed.

Kindly,
Sage
* If non-quantitative data are permitted