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  1. #1

    Duke baseball and MLB draft primer

    I thought I'd start a new thread on the topic to encourage discussion, but if you'd prefer it be merged in the old Duke baseball 2020 thread, please do.

    As you all know, the NCAA granted an additional year of eligibility to student-athletes participating in spring sports. Well recently, several significant changes have been made to the MLB draft for this year. First, the draft has been reduced from 40 rounds to just 5. Those 5 rounds have slot values for signing bonuses that count towards a team's pool, however the payout timing is significantly delayed: up to $100,000 is due within 30 days of signing, 50% of the remainder is due July 1, 2021, and the rest is paid July 1, 2022. Another big change is that beyond the 5th round, teams can sign an unlimited number of players, however the bonuses are limited to just $20,000. Previously, bonuses up to $125,000 were common in rounds 11-40 and sometimes reached several thousands of dollars (previously, anything above $125,000 counted against the team's allotted pool).

    These changes obviously have big implications. First, players that normally would have been drafted with leverage (high school, juco, draft-eligible college sophomores, and juniors) may not be drafted at all, and chances are they won't sign as undrafted free agents for only $20K. Second, this will create a logjam across college baseball for the next few years. Seniors coming back next year will retain their scholarship value, but I'm not sure how it will work after that. And third, the MLB draft next year is going to be stacked.

    For Duke, there are two big question marks. Bryce Jarvis is projected to be drafted in the top half to middle of the 2nd round with a shot at sneaking into the back of the first round. I think he's as good as gone. (selfish side note: I'm keeping my fingers crossed Jarvis goes as high as #25 to my Braves...I love watching him pitch.) The second is one of our freshmen commits, 3B Jordan Walker, is listed in that same range, so he may sign straight out of high school. Other current Duke players like Michael Rothenberg who may have been drafted and left under the previous draft rules probably won't get drafted. The one advantage to the current system is that our seniors may actually get more money this year with the added year of eligibility. Most years, seniors don't have any leverage and end up taking signing bonuses of $10K or less, so if one of our seniors is given a $20K signing bonus, they may opt to leave despite the extra year of eligibility. It should be an interesting draft for sure, and I'm already looking forward to the 2020-2021 Duke baseball season.

    Let me know if I missed anything!
    T '05, SOM '10

  2. #2
    Keith Law has a first round mock draft up today on The Athletic (paywalled) but has Jarvis going #20 to the Brewers:

    20. Milwaukee Brewers: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke

    Jarvis was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year but wasnít signable for worth, going in the 37th round to the Yankees. The son of long-time big leaguer Kevin Jarvis came out throwing harder and with better command and control this spring, possibly enough to get himself into the first round ó especially if heís willing to take a discount as a 22.5-year-old junior.
    I didn't know that about his dad. But how do you not mention a perfect game?

    No mention of Jordan Walker in his 1st round. Will probably follow up with 2nd round soon, will keep an eye out for Walker.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by jwillfan View Post
    Keith Law has a first round mock draft up today on The Athletic (paywalled) but has Jarvis going #20 to the Brewers:
    #20 is as high as I've seen him. Jonathan Mayo does have Jarvis as his #25 overall prospect, so he definitely has a shot at going in the first round, especially as you mention, if he signs below slot value. Players who are willing to take a bit less can jump up draft boards significantly. I hope that's the case for him!
    T '05, SOM '10

  4. #4
    CBS Sports has Jarvis as the 31st overall prospect and Jordan Walker as the 40th.

    31. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
    Jarvis received a lot of attention in February, when he threw a perfect game against Cornell. He followed up that start with a pair of dominating performances against Purdue and Florida State that brought his seasonal totals to 27 innings, 11 hits, two walks, two earned runs, and 40 strikeouts. Jarvis has improved his velocity, now pitching in the mid-90s, and he has one of the draft's best changeups. His slider is also a quality offering, giving him three legit weapons. His uptempo delivery is a little awkward, and he has a history of walking more than four batters per nine. Teams will likely give him the benefit of the doubt in that regard, given his hard work and marked improvement in other areas, with someone eyeing him as a mid-rotation starter.
    40. Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur (HS)
    Walker, armed with a Duke commitment, is viewed as a tougher sign than his peers. If he signals to teams he's turning pro, he should be the top prep corner infielder off the board. Walker is listed at 6-foot-5, which would tie him with Kris Bryant for the tallest third baseman in the majors. Predictably, one of his top selling points is his power potential. Even more predictably, there are concerns he'll have to move away from the hot corner due to his size. A team who believes he can play third and hit in the middle of the order could pop him in the first round.
    T '05, SOM '10

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