Duke baseball and MLB draft primer

[coldriver10]

I thought I'd start a new thread on the topic to encourage discussion, but if you'd prefer it be merged in the old Duke baseball 2020 thread, please do.

As you all know, the NCAA granted an additional year of eligibility to student-athletes participating in spring sports. Well recently, several significant changes have been made to the MLB draft for this year. First, the draft has been reduced from 40 rounds to just 5. Those 5 rounds have slot values for signing bonuses that count towards a team's pool, however the payout timing is significantly delayed: up to $100,000 is due within 30 days of signing, 50% of the remainder is due July 1, 2021, and the rest is paid July 1, 2022. Another big change is that beyond the 5th round, teams can sign an unlimited number of players, however the bonuses are limited to just $20,000. Previously, bonuses up to $125,000 were common in rounds 11-40 and sometimes reached several thousands of dollars (previously, anything above $125,000 counted against the team's allotted pool).

These changes obviously have big implications. First, players that normally would have been drafted with leverage (high school, juco, draft-eligible college sophomores, and juniors) may not be drafted at all, and chances are they won't sign as undrafted free agents for only $20K. Second, this will create a logjam across college baseball for the next few years. Seniors coming back next year will retain their scholarship value, but I'm not sure how it will work after that. And third, the MLB draft next year is going to be stacked.

For Duke, there are two big question marks. Bryce Jarvis is projected to be drafted in the top half to middle of the 2nd round with a shot at sneaking into the back of the first round. I think he's as good as gone. (selfish side note: I'm keeping my fingers crossed Jarvis goes as high as #25 to my Braves...I love watching him pitch.) The second is one of our freshmen commits, 3B Jordan Walker, is listed in that same range, so he may sign straight out of high school. Other current Duke players like Michael Rothenberg who may have been drafted and left under the previous draft rules probably won't get drafted. The one advantage to the current system is that our seniors may actually get more money this year with the added year of eligibility. Most years, seniors don't have any leverage and end up taking signing bonuses of $10K or less, so if one of our seniors is given a $20K signing bonus, they may opt to leave despite the extra year of eligibility. It should be an interesting draft for sure, and I'm already looking forward to the 2020-2021 Duke baseball season.

Let me know if I missed anything!

[jwillfan]

Keith Law has a first round mock draft up today on The Athletic (paywalled) but has Jarvis going #20 to the Brewers:

20. Milwaukee Brewers: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke

Jarvis was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year but wasn’t signable for worth, going in the 37th round to the Yankees. The son of long-time big leaguer Kevin Jarvis came out throwing harder and with better command and control this spring, possibly enough to get himself into the first round — especially if he’s willing to take a discount as a 22.5-year-old junior.

I didn't know that about his dad. But how do you not mention a perfect game?

No mention of Jordan Walker in his 1st round. Will probably follow up with 2nd round soon, will keep an eye out for Walker.

[coldriver10]

Keith Law has a first round mock draft up today on The Athletic (paywalled) but has Jarvis going #20 to the Brewers:

#20 is as high as I've seen him. Jonathan Mayo does have Jarvis as his #25 overall prospect, so he definitely has a shot at going in the first round, especially as you mention, if he signs below slot value. Players who are willing to take a bit less can jump up draft boards significantly. I hope that's the case for him!

[coldriver10]

CBS Sports has Jarvis as the 31st overall prospect and Jordan Walker as the 40th.

31. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis received a lot of attention in February, when he threw a perfect game against Cornell. He followed up that start with a pair of dominating performances against Purdue and Florida State that brought his seasonal totals to 27 innings, 11 hits, two walks, two earned runs, and 40 strikeouts. Jarvis has improved his velocity, now pitching in the mid-90s, and he has one of the draft's best changeups. His slider is also a quality offering, giving him three legit weapons. His uptempo delivery is a little awkward, and he has a history of walking more than four batters per nine. Teams will likely give him the benefit of the doubt in that regard, given his hard work and marked improvement in other areas, with someone eyeing him as a mid-rotation starter.

40. Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur (HS)
Walker, armed with a Duke commitment, is viewed as a tougher sign than his peers. If he signals to teams he's turning pro, he should be the top prep corner infielder off the board. Walker is listed at 6-foot-5, which would tie him with Kris Bryant for the tallest third baseman in the majors. Predictably, one of his top selling points is his power potential. Even more predictably, there are concerns he'll have to move away from the hot corner due to his size. A team who believes he can play third and hit in the middle of the order could pop him in the first round.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...rs-at-the-top/

[jv001]

I just saw Jonathan Mayo's latest MLB's draft projections and he has Duke's Bryce Jarvis going to my Cardinals with the 21st pick. If we're going to lose him, I hope it's to the Redbirds. His list can be found on twitter, @Jonathan Mayo & @MLB Draft.

GoDuke and GoRedbirds!

[jimsumner]

I just saw Jonathan Mayo's latest MLB's draft projections and he has Duke's Bryce Jarvis going to my Cardinals with the 21st pick. If we're going to lose him, I hope it's to the Redbirds. His list can be found on twitter, @Jonathan Mayo & @MLB Draft.

GoDuke and GoRedbirds!

You can dispense with the "if." There was never any chance Jarvis would come back for 2021.

[coldriver10]

I just saw Jonathan Mayo's latest MLB's draft projections and he has Duke's Bryce Jarvis going to my Cardinals with the 21st pick. If we're going to lose him, I hope it's to the Redbirds. His list can be found on twitter, @Jonathan Mayo & @MLB Draft.

GoDuke and GoRedbirds!

At this point less than one week before the draft, it seems highly likely that Jarvis goes in the first (I'm rooting for Braves at #25, but I think that's unlikely without them having a 2nd Rd pick). He's an older junior at 22.5 yrs old so he's a popular candidate to go under slot.

[jv001]

At this point less than one week before the draft, it seems highly likely that Jarvis goes in the first (I'm rooting for Braves at #25, but I think that's unlikely without them having a 2nd Rd pick). He's an older junior at 22.5 yrs old so he's a popular candidate to go under slot.

Yeh, no way was Jarvis coming back this season. He looks to have a bright future in the big leagues. When I said "if" we have to lose him I wasn't saying there is a question of his leaving or staying. I guess I could have said, since we're losing him I hope he goes to my Cardinals. But I'm pretty sure most people knew what I was talking about. I'm pretty sure you did.

GoDuke!

[coldriver10]

Yeh, no way was Jarvis coming back this season. He looks to have a bright future in the big leagues. When I said "if" we have to lose him I wasn't saying there is a question of his leaving or staying. I guess I could have said, since we're losing him I hope he goes to my Cardinals. But I'm pretty sure most people knew what I was talking about. I'm pretty sure you did.

GoDuke!

I did I suspect you meant to reply to Jim.

Btw, I'm still a bit sour my Braves traded a young Adam Wainwright to you guys. Maybe I'll get over it eventually.

[accfanfrom1970]

I did I suspect you meant to reply to Jim.

Btw, I'm still a bit sour my Braves traded a young Adam Wainwright to you guys. Maybe I'll get over it eventually.

Us Cardinal fans are eternally grateful.

[jv001]

I did I suspect you meant to reply to Jim.

Btw, I'm still a bit sour my Braves traded a young Adam Wainwright to you guys. Maybe I'll get over it eventually.

Waino is one of my Cardinal favorites. One of the good trades the Cards made along with the Lou Brock trade for Ernie Broglio. The Steve Carlton for Rick Wise was the worst.

GoDuke!

[JetpackJesus]

I did I suspect you meant to reply to Jim.

Btw, I'm still a bit sour my Braves traded a young Adam Wainwright to you guys. Maybe I'll get over it eventually.

I won't.

[coldriver10]

I won't.

I'll get over that before the blown infield fly debacle. I'm still angry about that!

[coldriver10]

Tonight's the night! The draft starts at 7 pm and will be broadcast on ESPN and MLB Network. Tonight will be round 1 and the first round of competitive balance picks, with the remainder of the draft being tomorrow starting at 5 pm. Teams this year seem to be putting a premium on college players and signability, so I now think it's virtually guaranteed that Jarvis is picked tonight.

[JetpackJesus]

I'll get over that before the blown infield fly debacle. I'm still angry about that!

And no Jarvis to Braves. D-Backs took him at 18. Congratulations, Bryce!

[JetpackJesus]

I'll get over that before the blown infield fly debacle. I'm still angry about that!

They drafted Jordan Walker at 21. Please go to Duke instead, Jordan. Pretty please. With a cherry on top.

[coldriver10]

They drafted Jordan Walker at 21. Please go to Duke instead, Jordan. Pretty please. With a cherry on top.

Another reason to hate the Cardinals!

[jv001]

Another reason to hate the Cardinals!

I'm in a win-win situation. Walker seems to be the kind of kid who would fit in nicely with the Redbirds or Blue Devils. It seems he's interested in getting his degree and it's not a sure thing he will sign with the Cards. Could have been worse, he could have been drafted by the Cubs, the Tarheels of baseball.

GoDuke and GoRedbirds!

[jimsumner]

I have zero confidence in Walker coming to Duke. I'm sure the Cards-and other teams-vetted him and were assured that a first-round pick would get the job done. That's just routine diligence. You're not going to roll the dice on a first-round pick in the absence of that assurance.

[coldriver10]

I have zero confidence in Walker coming to Duke. I'm sure the Cards-and other teams-vetted him and were assured that a first-round pick would get the job done. That's just routine diligence. You're not going to roll the dice on a first-round pick in the absence of that assurance.

Unfortunately, I agree with Jim here. He may have even agreed to an underslot deal prior to the draft in order to save the Cardinals money. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Side note, unless things have changed recently, the MLB pays for the college education (I'm not sure if it's 100% or just a good portion of it) of players who sign out of high school once their playing days are done. So if you're a high schooler getting first round money, the best bet is to go make money...you can always go back to college later if your career doesn't pan out.