Originally Posted by
JasonEvans
It is award season, so the studios are busy sending critics like me (I vote for awards as part of both the Atlanta Film Critics and Southeastern Film Critics associations) screeners for the films they are releasing. It has been slim picking so far because the studios are most assuredly holding back big titles that could have boxoffice potential due to Covid. More on that in a moment...
So, here is the "more on that..."
In case you did not hear, Warner has announced that every single film on their 2021 calendar will be released in theaters... and on HBOMax AT THE SAME TIME. This is a massive shot across the bow at the theatrical viewing experience. On a day when the rest of the stock market was up, Cinemark Theaters fell 22% and AMC theaters shed 16% of tis value. IMAX dropped 8% because none of us have IMAX projectors or screens in our homes.
The key for Warner/HBO/AT&T is how much does this drive subscriber growth at HBOMax and does that subscriber growth make up for what will probably be hundreds of millions in lost theatrical revenue. Let me tell you, it sure feels like this makes HBOMax a MUST HAVE among the streaming services. Among the titles that will be released on HBOMax in the next year are:
Wonder Woman 1984, Tom & Jerry, Godzilla vs. Kong, Mortal Kombat, In the Heights, Space Jam: A New Legacy, The Suicide Squad, and Matrix 4.
So, if you pay $14.99/month for HBOMax, you and your entire family/friends/whoever can see several films that you would ordinarily pay $12-$15/seat to see in a theater.
Of course, the question is... do you want to see Matrix 4 or Godzilla vs. Kong on your 44 inch TV with the dog barking to go out and the phone ringing versus seeing it on a 50-foot theater screen with no distractions? Do you want to listen to In The Heights or The Suicide Squad on your TV speakers or do you want it in Dolby Surround Sound from speakers with subwoofers the size of a car?
Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the industry reacts to this. Disney is an obvious player here with Disney+ and a massive library of important titles (they are already releasing the new Pixar film, Soul, on Disney+ and forgoing theaters).
If I had to bet right now... I would bet on a healthy percentage of middle-upper class America paying for Netflix, HBOMax, and Disney+ going forward... I think Hulu's subscription model could be in real trouble. CBS' streaming channel is probably toast (despite having a bunch of Star Trek content). I have no idea how this will impact Amazon Prime Video as I suspect a lot of Prime customers have that service for something other than video content and I'm not sure Amazon cares all that much if it loses tens of millions on streaming at this point.