Who’s your surprise player for the 2020-2021 season?

[jipops]

I expect guys like Moore and Hurt to be reliable contributors next season. I will not be surprised to see them and Jalen Johnson, based on his ranking coming in, to be players that K leans on the most. I think my surprise could come from any one of Steward, Roach, or Brakefield. To me, the player that has the chance to be the biggest surprise would be Mark Williams. It is very, very rare for a big man ranked outside of the top 10 to come in and make any sort of impact his freshman year at Duke. It's far more common that those players spend their freshman seasons as being largely ineffective and either start to make an impact in junior or senior seasons or not pan out at all. So if Mark Williams comes in and plays 10+ minutes while being a real factor defensively and on the boards then I will be very, very surprised. I'm not expecting it, but if it does happen then that will win my surprise award.

Goldwire will provide steady perimeter D as well as give us another ball handler on offense. Joey will give us the occasional big shooting games.

I don't see any way that Henry Coleman gets any sort of significant playing time in his freshman year beyond blowouts in November and December. For one thing we're already crowded at the combo forward position and his talent level is apparently well below the others. Maybe give him a couple seasons, if he is willing to wait that long.

[DevilYouKnow]

Dude. What’s your problem? If you don’t like this thread, don’t post here.

I understand quarantine is getting to everyone, but still...

I thought it was a fun, light hearted post.

[rsvman]

Based on this thread, they are all going to wear out their shoes between the scorers table and the foul circle going in and out.

Better than blowing out their shoes on the way down the lane (too soon?).

[Kedsy]

To me, the player that has the chance to be the biggest surprise would be Mark Williams. It is very, very rare for a big man ranked outside of the top 10 to come in and make any sort of impact his freshman year at Duke. It's far more common that those players spend their freshman seasons as being largely ineffective and either start to make an impact in junior or senior seasons or not pan out at all. So if Mark Williams comes in and plays 10+ minutes while being a real factor defensively and on the boards then I will be very, very surprised. I'm not expecting it, but if it does happen then that will win my surprise award.

It's hard to say exactly where Mark Williams will end up in the final RSCI. Certainly not top 10, my guess is around #25. With that in mind, here's a list of Duke big men freshmen since the RSCI was invented, ranked between 11 and 40 (I've put both centers and power forwards in this list; if you don't want to look at PFs, just pretend they're not there):

Year	Player			Rank	mpg	Behind
2000	Casey Sanders		#16	4.2	Carlos Boozer, Shane Battier, Matt Christensen
2003	Shavlik Randolph	#14	13.5	Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders 
2003	Michael Thompson	#30	1.9	Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders, Shavlik Randolph, Nick Horvath
2006	Eric Boateng		#39	1.4	Shelden Williams, Josh McRoberts
2007	Lance Thomas		#20	14.9	Josh McRoberts
2007	Brian Zoubek		#25	7.3	Josh McRoberts, Lance Thomas
2010	Mason Plumlee		#18	14.1	Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee
2010	Ryan Kelly		#14	5.7	Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee
2011	Josh Hairston		#32	4.5	Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Miles Plumlee
2013	Amile Jefferson		#21	11.4	Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly 
2016	Chase Jeter		#14	7.0	Marshall Plumlee, Amile Jefferson (for 9 games and then Brandon Ingram played PF)
2017	Marques Bolden		#11	4.3	Amile Jefferson, Harry Giles, Chase Jeter
2017	Javin DeLaurier		#35	2.1	Amile Jefferson, Harry Giles, Chase Jeter, Marques Bolden
2020	Matthew Hurt		#12	20.5	Vernon Carey

(note the mpg include DNP-CDs as a game with 0 minutes)

So, first of all, there aren't so many guys outside the top 10 but inside the top 40 (only 14) and 5 of 14 (35.7%) played double-digit minutes (and speaking for myself, I wouldn't consider more than one-third to be "very, very rare"). If you narrow it to those ranked 11 to 30, then it's 5 out of 11 (45.5%), which is pretty close to a coin flip. But the most important variable here is probably who played ahead of the freshman big. For example, last season there wasn't really anybody who played Matthew Hurt's PF position, so he played 20+ mpg. Opportunity similarly allowed Shav Randolph and Lance Thomas to play 13+ mpg as freshmen. On the other hand, we couldn't really expect a freshman Michael Thompson to play very much when we also had Shelden Williams, Shavlik Randolph, senior Casey Sanders, and senior Nick Horvath on the roster.

Next season, we'll have three freshman bigs (Mark Williams, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Henry Coleman) and based on recruiting ranking, Williams is the best of them. Other than those guys, the only center on the roster will be Patrick Tapé. Now it's possible Tapé grabs the center spot and plays 25 or 30 minutes, and it's possible we'll go small with Matthew Hurt or Jalen Johnson primarily guarding the other team's center. The latter scenario makes some sense (and, personally, what I think will probably happen), since we have so many perimeter players (Jeremy Roach, Jordan Goldwire, DJ Steward, Wendell Moore, Joey Baker), along with Hurt and Johnson, so if we end up with an 8-man rotation it would logically contain just one center, and that could be Tapé, in which case all three freshman bigs might be playing minimal minutes.

But if neither of the above scenarios play out (or even if one of them does but a freshman moves ahead of Tapé in the rotation), one of the freshmen bigs should play 15+ mpg. Again, based on ranking, Mark Williams should get the first shot at those minutes. And based on the roster and the relative recruiting rankings, that really shouldn't be such a huge surprise.

[Troublemaker]

I'm going with Matthew Hurt. ACC First team, 2nd team AA and ACCT MVP. Freshman POY will be Mr. Steward.

GoDuke!

I'm trying to figure out how both of these things could happen. Hurt would need a lot of PT and a lot of touches to be 2nd-team All-America. Steward would need lots of PT and lots of touches to be FOY (I'm assuming you mean ACC Freshman of the Year, not national Freshman of the Year)

Does Hurt play the 5? Does Steward play point? Can either Hurt or Steward reach those levels coming off the bench? Assuming the answer to those questions is no, then at least one of Wendell Moore and Jalen Johnson has to be behind Hurt and Steward in the rotation.

Or am I missing something?

Which of these scenarios do you find most likely?

Most of the Duke fans I know think Johnson will be Duke's best freshmen and he probably will but the title of the thread was "Who's your surprise player for the 2020-2021 season"? So that's why I picked Steward. If Johnson wins, it will not be a surprise for me. He's the highest rated freshmen and from all scouting reports he may be Duke's best player this season. Maybe I read the title of the thread wrong. I've surely been wrong plenty of times before. Just ask my wife.
GoDuke!

jv001, I love both of your surprise picks, and Mr Sumner doth protest too much, methinks*, for a "name your surprise player" thread, as you mentioned.

To put it simply, yes, for Hurt to be 2nd team AA and for Steward to be frosh POY, they would have to be the two best players on Duke's team. It's really not that far-fetched a scenario and comfortably fits into a "surprise" thread.

* I'm using this line the correct way, if anyone's wondering. I'm a fan of the Bard, too.

[Troublemaker]

Dude. What’s your problem? If you don’t like this thread, don’t post here.

I understand quarantine is getting to everyone, but still...

OK, since he's the last one, just to anger fdd further, I'm going with Mark Williams.

FDD - stop being so oversensitive, lol. Nothing Kedsy has posted in this thread indicates that he doesn't like this thread or is making fun of you or anyone else.

Also, you still owe me a case of beer for when Popovich lost three times (one an exhibition) in the 2019 FIBA championships. I'm never going to get paid, am I?

[elvis14]

Add me to the Wendell Moore list. Note that I didn't list Jalen or Jeremy because it won't be a surprise if they dominate. With Wendell, we have a guy who was't a one and done, had an up and down freshman season but IMHO showed a lot of promise on both ends of the floor. A years worth of growth with Duke's coaching staff can make a difference.

[Troublemaker]

Add me to the Wendell Moore list. Note that I didn't list Jalen or Jeremy because it won't be a surprise if they dominate. With Wendell, we have a guy who was't a one and done, had an up and down freshman season but IMHO showed a lot of promise on both ends of the floor. A years worth of growth with Duke's coaching staff can make a difference.

It would be very surprising for a #22-ranked recruit like Jeremy to dominate as a freshman. To a lesser extent, it would be somewhat surprising for the #11-ranked recruit like Jalen to dominate.

As for Wendell, it depends on what exactly you're predicting. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he's a good player next season; the defense will be there, and then a reasonable/modest amount of offensive improvement (say, going from a 93 offensive rating last season to a 105 next season) makes him "good."