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  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So many good points in this thread. My thoughts...

    1) There is great potential for abuse by boosters and schools
    2) The NCAA has not made it at all clear how this will be implemented or (more importantly) policed
    3) As flawed and imperfect as this may be, it is (to me) far better than continuing to force these players to make no money for services that are clearly worth a tremendous amount of money

    We can wring our hands over #1 and #2 all day long... and I am happy to join in the concerns raised about both of them, but I see #3 as the most important thing that had to be addressed. The system was fundamentally flawed and unfair under the old rules. It was a system that gave all the money and power to rich Universities (and their highest paid employees) at the expense of gifted young men (and some women) who generally came from less advantaged families. Now, finally, we have a mechanism for giving tangible compensation to those previously powerless young athletes. I see that as an exceedingly good thing.

    Is this change perfect? No, not even close. We can have endless debates about how imperfect it is. But it is far better than what existed before. In that regard, I am quite happy to see this happening. Long overdue.
    I'd say there's a #4. There's no proven market for college sponsored minor league sports. If we get away from amateur competition, even if it the amateurism often seems to be an illusion, the whole college sports world may collapse. I think it's this factor more than the supposed greed of the colleges that has held back moves to allow players to be paid, whether by the schools or by boosters or by advertisers.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    I'd say there's a #4. There's no proven market for college sponsored minor league sports. If we get away from amateur competition, even if it the amateurism often seems to be an illusion, the whole college sports world may collapse. I think it's this factor more than the supposed greed of the colleges that has held back moves to allow players to be paid, whether by the schools or by boosters or by advertisers.
    There certainly is a market for college sponsored minor league sports. That is exactly what ďrevenue sportsĒ are ó college sponsored minor leagues for the NFL (the big one) and the NBA (the other one).
    Carolina delenda est

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    I'd say there's a #4. There's no proven market for college sponsored minor league sports. If we get away from amateur competition, even if it the amateurism often seems to be an illusion, the whole college sports world may collapse. I think it's this factor more than the supposed greed of the colleges that has held back moves to allow players to be paid, whether by the schools or by boosters or by advertisers.
    Help me to understand this. You are saying that by eliminating amateurism rules schools are going to give up on golf, track, swimming, and so on, right? I am not saying you are wrong -- I mean, who knows how these changes will ripple across sports -- but I am interested in hearing how this scenario plays out. It is not like the non-revenue sports are making money for schools anyway. It is not like Duke's wrestlers or field hockey players are suddenly going to find huge endorsement contracts thrust at them (and I'm not clear how that would impact Duke anyway). Please explain how you see allowing the revenue sport players to sign NIL deals would cause schools to give up on non-revenue sports.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Help me to understand this. You are saying that by eliminating amateurism rules schools are going to give up on golf, track, swimming, and so on, right? I am not saying you are wrong -- I mean, who knows how these changes will ripple across sports -- but I am interested in hearing how this scenario plays out. It is not like the non-revenue sports are making money for schools anyway. It is not like Duke's wrestlers or field hockey players are suddenly going to find huge endorsement contracts thrust at them (and I'm not clear how that would impact Duke anyway). Please explain how you see allowing the revenue sport players to sign NIL deals would cause schools to give up on non-revenue sports.
    No, I'm saying that if public interest in college football and basketball collapse, the revenue stream that has been supporting other college sports will dry up. Some of the other sports will be eliminated. The rest will suffer big budget cuts. You can say "Oh, that wouldn't happen" but nobody knows. As I said, there's no proven market for college branded minor league sports. For that matter, if college football and basketball become regarded as minor league professional sports, I'm not sure that Duke will continue to sponsor them or should.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    No, I'm saying that if public interest in college football and basketball collapse, the revenue stream that has been supporting other college sports will dry up. Some of the other sports will be eliminated. The rest will suffer big budget cuts. You can say "Oh, that wouldn't happen" but nobody knows. As I said, there's no proven market for college branded minor league sports. For that matter, if college football and basketball become regarded as minor league professional sports, I'm not sure that Duke will continue to sponsor them or should.
    That was my point, Hallcity, in my lengthy post. But it wasn't due to the psychology of the sports viewer. I thought there was a real danger that a few schools would have their booster-driven endorsement engine humming and dominate the recruiting market. Today we have good competition -- a few dominant teams, but not to the extreme. If competition gets one-sided, the sport as a whole will suffer. And interest and revenue will plummet.

    Now, the I see the big problem as football. Basketball has a self-regulating mechanisms: ONE AND DONE. Teams that get all the best players only get them for one year (under current rules). And, as we have seen, teams with mostly freshmen have limitations. Duke has tried to solve that problem by having large recruiting classes, so that some players -- less highly ranked -- become really good college players over time.

    Kindly,
    Sage Grouse
    'Football also has a self-regulating mechanism -- some 18 YOs keep growing and getting better, so there are sleepers who aren't recruited by Bama, Clemson and LSU. Heck, didn't Clay Matthews have to walk-on at USC? I like to bring him up -- his great-grandfather was my boxing coach in Charleston when I was seven years old. And, as Casey Stengel used to say, "You can look it up"'
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    No, I'm saying that if public interest in college football and basketball collapse, the revenue stream that has been supporting other college sports will dry up. Some of the other sports will be eliminated. The rest will suffer big budget cuts. You can say "Oh, that wouldn't happen" but nobody knows. As I said, there's no proven market for college branded minor league sports. For that matter, if college football and basketball become regarded as minor league professional sports, I'm not sure that Duke will continue to sponsor them or should.
    How has this not already been the case for 50 years?
    It's being reported that due to coronavirus fears, Harvard has asked students not to return from spring break, and for classes to be held online.

    Not to be outdone, UNC told students to stop coming to class 27 years ago under Dean Smith.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    No, I'm saying that if public interest in college football and basketball collapse, the revenue stream that has been supporting other college sports will dry up. Some of the other sports will be eliminated. The rest will suffer big budget cuts. You can say "Oh, that wouldn't happen" but nobody knows. As I said, there's no proven market for college branded minor league sports. For that matter, if college football and basketball become regarded as minor league professional sports, I'm not sure that Duke will continue to sponsor them or should.
    Ok, now I get it. Thanks. As I have said repeatedly, there will be unforeseen consequences of this change. Anyone who tells you "that wouldn't happen" is speculating, not stating a fact.

    That said, I find your scenario of college football and basketball going away to be highly unlikely. They both have an extensive history and track record in the public eye. There are massive, multi-billion dollar TV contracts tied to the success of these two enterprises. I think it is pretty darn unlikely that people stop watching Alabama football or Duke basketball because the players are doing ads for the local car dealership.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok, now I get it. Thanks. As I have said repeatedly, there will be unforeseen consequences of this change. Anyone who tells you "that wouldn't happen" is speculating, not stating a fact.

    That said, I find your scenario of college football and basketball going away to be highly unlikely. They both have an extensive history and track record in the public eye. There are massive, multi-billion dollar TV contracts tied to the success of these two enterprises. I think it is pretty darn unlikely that people stop watching Alabama football or Duke basketball because the players are doing ads for the local car dealership.



    I hope Iím wrong but this seems like one of the most naive understatement in the history of understatements. Players can get paid through endorsements so what do you do if you want the best players besides try to raise more endorsement money for jocks than the other schools who want to win? That goes for every level. Want to win the Big South or SoCon? Better raise more cash for jocks than the other schools or shudder the program because if you donít pay up the other guys will. Donít come through on your commitment ? Transfer time. This like stupid capitalism. I realize there is some value in the Duke brand but the very best players are going to cost a lot of money and if Duke doesnít cough it up they wonít get them. Maybe Iím weird but Iím not interested in a team made up of players we outbid the other schools for.

  9. #69
    I'm very curious what Coach K has to say about this. I know many coaches are against it but most don't want to say it for fear of alienating their recruiting base. Boeheim, for one, has definitely said he's against it in the past.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    [/B]

    I hope I’m wrong but this seems like one of the most naive understatement in the history of understatements. Players can get paid through endorsements so what do you do if you want the best players besides try to raise more endorsement money for jocks than the other schools who want to win? That goes for every level. Want to win the Big South or SoCon? Better raise more cash for jocks than the other schools or shudder the program because if you don’t pay up the other guys will. Don’t come through on your commitment ? Transfer time. This like stupid capitalism. I realize there is some value in the Duke brand but the very best players are going to cost a lot of money and if Duke doesn’t cough it up they won’t get them. Maybe I’m weird but I’m not interested in a team made up of players we outbid the other schools for.
    Could not agree more. I think the entire idea is ill-conceived, short-sighted and will lead to all sorts of negative unintended consequences. There are more potential loopholes in this “plan” than Swiss cheese. I don’t know for certain because it hasn’t happened yet, but if this thing turns out the way it seems inevitably headed I will no longer be a fan of college athletics, and that includes Duke Basketball.

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Could not agree more. I think the entire idea is ill-conceived, short-sighted and will lead to all sorts of negative unintended consequences. There are more potential loopholes in this ďplanĒ than Swiss cheese. I donít know for certain because it hasnít happened yet, but if this thing turns out the way it seems inevitably headed I will no longer be a fan of college athletics, and that includes Duke Basketball.
    I pay for season tickets and drive hours to watch every game. I eschew the much closer and less expensive Hornets games. I agree with this. I am not interested in watching the guys we outbid other teams to get.

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Could not agree more. I think the entire idea is ill-conceived, short-sighted and will lead to all sorts of negative unintended consequences. There are more potential loopholes in this ďplanĒ than Swiss cheese. I donít know for certain because it hasnít happened yet, but if this thing turns out the way it seems inevitably headed I will no longer be a fan of college athletics, and that includes Duke Basketball.
    I agree as well. Why would anyone donate to an institution of higher education so that the institution can sponsor a professional sports team? And why would anyone watch a developmental league game when the real deal is on another channel?

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by kfan View Post
    I agree as well. Why would anyone donate to an institution of higher education so that the institution can sponsor a professional sports team? And why would anyone watch a developmental league game when the real deal is on another channel?
    Depends on the marketing. Why do people go to or watch minor league baseball games when the real deal is on another channel?

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    Depends on the marketing. Why do people go to or watch minor league baseball games when the real deal is on another channel?
    To sit outside and drink beer. I donít think Iíve ever lasted past the 7th inning stretch or really cared who won a minor League ball game

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    Depends on the marketing. Why do people go to or watch minor league baseball games when the real deal is on another channel?
    Not all that many do...
    https://ballparkdigest.com/2019/09/09/2019-affiliated-attendance-by-average/

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by kfan View Post
    And why would anyone watch a developmental league game when the real deal is on another channel?
    Huh? Why do hundreds of millions of people watch college football and basketball when the NFL and NBA are all over the dial?

    I am really going to enjoy coming back to this thread in a couple years when players are making some money from endorsements and yet college football and basketball are still thriving (as they have been for many decades). Some of ya'll are waaaay too eager to predict the demise of a multi-billion dollar industry that isn't being attacked or threatened in any meaningful way.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #77
    Well I really havenít made a prediction about revenue sports thriving or not thriving. But iI feel pretty confident that allowing endorsements is going to cause open bidding for players. NBA and NFL are very popular and make boatloads of money but I barely watch any. I only know what Iíll watch or pay for.

    I do wonder if, at some point, institutions of higher learning such as Duke will decide that trying to out -bid Kansas and Kentucky for professional athletes really isnít their thing.

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Huh? Why do hundreds of millions of people watch college football and basketball when the NFL and NBA are all over the dial?

    I am really going to enjoy coming back to this thread in a couple years when players are making some money from endorsements and yet college football and basketball are still thriving (as they have been for many decades). Some of ya'll are waaaay too eager to predict the demise of a multi-billion dollar industry that isn't being attacked or threatened in any meaningful way.
    I think you're right, Jason, that people are too quick to predict widespread demise of college athletics.

    I have resigned myself to the view that this is for the better, when taking things as a whole - a view I did not really have a couple years ago.

    That said, I think the lion's share of the issue(s) would be resolved with some kind of cap to what athletes can receive. It's the same thing they have in the NBA and NFL. Open bidding, subject to no maximum or no controls whatsoever, seems not to lead to balanced competition. The major leagues have adopted this view for decades. College sports will have to adopt something that either does this explicitly or backdoors it through some other limiting control. I struggle to envision any other way for this to work. If this issue is solved, then I tend to believe the rest will be of secondary concern and will fall out in a reasonable way (if unpredictable today).

    - Chillin

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by kfan View Post
    I agree as well. Why would anyone donate to an institution of higher education so that the institution can sponsor a professional sports team? And why would anyone watch a developmental league game when the real deal is on another channel?
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I do wonder if, at some point, institutions of higher learning such as Duke will decide that trying to out -bid Kansas and Kentucky for professional athletes really isnít their thing.
    This is already the system we have, but the currency is different. Labor is free so we compete with facilities, coaches, television, exposure, schedules, shoes, gear, adulation, and expectations about the future. That's why Duke's basketbal budget is roughly 100 times that of some D3 schools, for example. That sounds pretty professional to me.

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Huh? Why do hundreds of millions of people watch college football and basketball when the NFL and NBA are all over the dial?

    I am really going to enjoy coming back to this thread in a couple years when players are making some money from endorsements and yet college football and basketball are still thriving (as they have been for many decades). Some of ya'll are waaaay too eager to predict the demise of a multi-billion dollar industry that isn't being attacked or threatened in any meaningful way.
    I have no doubt that some folks will stop following college sports if the players are no longer amateurs. However, I personally don't think there are enough of these folks to make much of a difference. Do we really think a large percentage of SEC or Big 10 football fans are going to stop following their teams if the players are no longer amateurs. If I had to guess, I would say that the percentage of college sports fans who stop following their teams once it becomes clear that the players are no longer amateurs is pretty similar to the percentage of Carolina fans who stopped following their team when it became clear that their players were not actual students.

    Also, I suspect that many of the folks who lose interest will be replaced by folks whose interest increases now that large corporations have the ability and incentive to market individual players. After all, would Jordan (and therefore, the NBA) have been so famous and closely followed if it weren't for the marketing efforts of Nike?

    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    I think the lion's share of the issue(s) would be resolved with some kind of cap to what athletes can receive. It's the same thing they have in the NBA and NFL. Open bidding, subject to no maximum or no controls whatsoever, seems not to lead to balanced competition.
    While I don't think the game will suffer if players can receive NIL money, I do worry a bit about potential impact on competitive balance. That being said, competitive balance is already pretty limited in college football. You can pretty much pencil in Alabama and Clemson for the 2023 College Football playoff and the odds are pretty good that Ohio State and/or Oklahoma are going to join them.

    As long as college basketball sticks to a 64+ team single elimination tournament, there is also going to be some randomness to the Champion (and Final 4). So, basketball can probably survive even if the top talent consolidates even more than it already does today.

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