Do sports, and more specifically NCAAB, return?

[Bluedog]

I just posted this in the Pandemic thread on the OTB, but thought it was also relevant here.

Just watched the livestream of the North Carolina High School Athletics Association's announcement about the 2020-21 high school sports calendar for NC. Highlights:

(1) No sports start practicing until November 4th, beginning with cross-country and volleyball.

(2) Football in the spring, with a total of seven regular season games.

(3) Men's and women's golf will both be in the spring (whereas previously women's golf was a fall sport).

(4) Contests limited to two per week, except football which has a one contest per week limitation.

Interesting. Illinois has actually bucketed sports into various risk categories. Only the "low" risk sports are allowed to proceed as scheduled in the fall: boys/girls golf, girls tennis, girls swimming & diving, boys/girls cross country. Football is tentatively slotted for spring only if certain conditions are met. Football, wrestling, cheerleading, and dance are in the "highest" risk category. Basketball is medium incidentally.

[throatybeard]

I'm really not sure what the point is in scheduling a spring football season, other than futilely attempting to quell some of the revolt resulting from cancelling the fall season. What is going to change between now and late February, when they'd have to be practicing?

1) COVID won't get less dangerous.
2) COVID won't get less transmissible.
3) Relative to cold/flu season we'll be in the same calendar territory we were when the 2020 NCAAT had to be cancelled.
4) A vaccine may exist but the American population is very unlikely to have received it at scale that early.
5) Football isn't going to be less face-to-face than it is now.
6) 20yo athletes aren't going to be more responsible about transmission/more able to limit transmission in March than they are now.

In spring, people said it would somehow go away in summer because it would be hot. Instead, Americans are dying from it at a clip of about a thousand per day. And as Jim Sumner pointed out in this thread a while ago, it's actually a scarier situation if the heat/humidity has in fact helped. If that's the case, what does October-March flu season look like? A large percentage of the population refuses to take even basic precautions to limit spread.

For purposes of playing football, nothing's going to be different, except the death toll will be much higher by then and the average person will be closer to vaccination day than they are now. If you listen to actual epidemiology professionals, we will not be anywhere close to herd immunity, neither by relatively unchecked transmission nor by mass vaccination.

Absent some magical thinking about vaccine efficacy and delivery, I cannot think of a single reason spring 2021 football will be more feasible than Fall 2020 football.

[Tripping William]

I'm really not sure what the point is in scheduling a spring football season, other than futilely attempting to quell some of the revolt resulting from cancelling the fall season. What is going to change between now and late February, when they'd have to be practicing?

1) COVID won't get less dangerous.
2) COVID won't get less transmissible.
3) Relative to cold/flu season we'll be in the same calendar territory we were when the 2020 NCAAT had to be cancelled.
4) A vaccine may exist but the American population is very unlikely to have received it at scale that early.
5) Football isn't going to be less face-to-face than it is now.
6) 20yo athletes aren't going to be more responsible about transmission/more able to limit transmission in March than they are now.

In spring, people said it would somehow go away in summer because it would be hot. Instead, Americans are dying from it at a clip of about a thousand per day. And as Jim Sumner pointed out in this thread a while ago, it's actually a scarier situation if the heat/humidity has in fact helped. If that's the case, what does October-March flu season look like? A large percentage of the population refuses to take even basic precautions to limit spread.

For purposes of playing football, nothing's going to be different, except the death toll will be much higher by then and the average person will be closer to vaccination day than they are now. If you listen to actual epidemiology professionals, we will not be anywhere close to herd immunity, neither by relatively unchecked transmission nor by mass vaccination.

Absent some magical thinking about vaccine efficacy and delivery, I cannot think of a single reason spring 2021 football will be more feasible than Fall 2020 football.

As I said a couple of weeks ago in the PlagueWatch thread, I was assured by a kind gentleman visiting our neighborhood pool that this will all disappear on November 3rd. This was in between his sips on Bud Light and drags on Marlboro, so I was, of course convinced he is on to something.

In all seriousness, and although I was not privy in the least to the NCHSAA's decision-making process, I think it is to quell the revolt and buy time before completely dashing kids' and coaches' hopes of a football season. Kids want to play; coaches want to coach. I can't fault that. And although the data in the spring may end up resulting in cancellation, there's no *need* to do that now, IMO (and perhaps some benefit to *not* doing that now).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Touch football could bring back memories of Duke during the years between Spurrier and Cut (except 1994). Unfortunately, our opponents were playing tackle.

Were we playing 7 on 11? Explains a lot.

[Gooch]

Earlier this week the football sub-committee of the Connecticut Interscholastic Athletic Conference (CIAC) recommended that high-school fall sports be cancelled across the states. Seemed reasonable and our superintendent announced the cancellation at a school board meeting Monday.

Today the overall CIAC board rejected the recommendation and fall sports will continue as planned. Weird stuff.

Link from nbcconnecticut.com

Luckily CT has among the lowest number of cases per 100,000 in the country and many school districts are opening 5-days per week, albeit with some modifications for physical distancing and optional remote learning. I must admit having fall sports makes me nervous, but then again my 10th grader doesn't participate.

[luvdahops]

As I said a couple of weeks ago in the PlagueWatch thread, I was assured by a kind gentleman visiting our neighborhood pool that this will all disappear on November 3rd. This was in between his sips on Bud Light and drags on Marlboro, so I was, of course convinced he is on to something.

In all seriousness, and although I was not privy in the least to the NCHSAA's decision-making process, I think it is to quell the revolt and buy time before completely dashing kids' and coaches' hopes of a football season. Kids want to play; coaches want to coach. I can't fault that. And although the data in the spring may end up resulting in cancellation, there's no *need* to do that now, IMO (and perhaps some benefit to *not* doing that now).

Yeah, for all the excellent arguments that have been made in this thread, it seems that the bolded points above have been largely overlooked by many. As far as I can tell, the vast majority of players want to play, and coaches want to coach. And many of each sincerely believe that they are safer in the relative cocoons of Power 5 football programs than outside of them. While these views shouldn't be deciding factors, they do matter.

[CDu]

As I said a couple of weeks ago in the PlagueWatch thread, I was assured by a kind gentleman visiting our neighborhood pool that this will all disappear on November 3rd. This was in between his sips on Bud Light and drags on Marlboro, so I was, of course convinced he is on to something.

In all seriousness, and although I was not privy in the least to the NCHSAA's decision-making process, I think it is to quell the revolt and buy time before completely dashing kids' and coaches' hopes of a football season. Kids want to play; coaches want to coach. I can't fault that. And although the data in the spring may end up resulting in cancellation, there's no *need* to do that now, IMO (and perhaps some benefit to *not* doing that now).

That and hope that a vaccine is proven safe and effective, is ready, and is readily available in time for the Spring seasons. Which is unlikely. But, as you said, no need to make that decision now when they can wait 3 months and have a slightly more informed opinion.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Any word if they'll be selling those $3-4 pimento cheese sammichs at a roadside stand on Washington Road? Asking for a friend...

If you paid $3, you got ripped off my friend! They’re $1.50, and they’re spectacular.

[devildeac]

If you paid $3, you got ripped off my friend! They’re $1.50, and they’re spectacular.

$1.50? Seriously? I'm certainly misremembering; wouldn't be the first time either.

[OldPhiKap]

If you paid $3, you got ripped off my friend! They’re $1.50, and they’re spectacular.

$1.50? Seriously? I'm certainly misremembering; wouldn't be the first time either.

In addition to missing out on cheap eats, the decision may have a nine-figure impact on the local economy:

https://www.augustachronicle.com/new...-local-economy

[devildeac]

In addition to missing out on cheap eats, the decision may have a nine-figure impact on the local economy:

https://www.augustachronicle.com/new...-local-economy

Whoa! I'd have never thought that much. I probably wouldn't even have thought half that.

[johnb]

$1.50? Seriously? I'm certainly misremembering; wouldn't be the first time either.

Football would’ve been possible if people had been careful and if there had been a strong US public health response. As it stands, people STILL don’t take enough precautions, the numbers are rising, and the spread is nationwide. I can’t imagine a scenario in which football stays safe for 3 months.

In this context, who decides whether teams play?

Players are from the demographic group most prone to skewed perceptions of risk/benefit (late adolescent males). They make excellent front line soldiers, chess champions, impulsive felons, and college football players, all activities that assume a certain amount of disdain for risk. Public health decisions don’t belong in their hands.

Big time college football and basketball coaches make 7 figures; for most, the alternative job would have paid 5 figures. They aren’t neutral and should have no say in the matter.

Official votes seem to be made by Athletic Directors. I don’t know how one becomes an AD, but I do know those guys aren’t making their own decisions about whether to play. I can’t imagine an AD would keep his or her job if they voted against the preference of the university’s president.

College presidents are presumably the official decision makers. One might presume they’d make decisions based on the best interest of the students, coaches, faculty, fans, etc. After all, they’re bosses and most were tenured academics, complete with all the freedom of speech they could muster.

College presidents are, however, faculty in name only. They are administrators who serve completely at the will of the Board. They make lots of independent decisions, but the coronavirus decision would not be one of them. I suppose the president could publicly disagree with the Board, but a)people who take these jobs tend to be risk averse and b)they’d be immediate lame ducks.

As I mentioned upthread, imho, the decision will be made by the Boards. The majority of most Boards are rich alums/parents. The Board may have a couple of students and a couple of pro bono selections. The fringe members may have some power of persuasion, but, on the big issues, they have about as much clout as you’d imagine. Similarly, a college president may be able to convince the Board. At least with the board members I’ve known, however, a core Life Philosophy is Top Down decision making. Spoiler alert: the core group lies at the top. To many of the Board members, a college president is middle management.

By the way, The PAC 12’s decision may be related to the core group being located in deep blue states. The Big 10 Likely based its decision on academic pride. We may view them as a midwestern version of the SEC, but that group is justifiably proud of their academics (eg, they’d never have accepted several of the colleges that are now part of the ACC).

As for Duke and the ACC, I’m hoping that Duke has made it clear that we’re not going to play but that we’ll go ahead and do some August workouts for a variety of team building and political reasons. Otoh, if Duke sends its students out to play Notre Dame, well, they better cook up an absolutely astounding rationale. If not, I don’t know that I’ll stay a fan, regardless of whether the players and their families, professors, and classmates get lucky.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

$1.50? Seriously? I'm certainly misremembering; wouldn't be the first time either.

I think it’s just to make you feel like you got a deal on something while you’re there. Because I certainly didn’t get any deals inside the golf shop. In fact, I tried to buy so much stuff a few years ago that I tripped my credit card fraud alert and had to whip out my debit card instead. Had to hide the receipt when I got home, too.

[OldPhiKap]

I think it’s just to make you feel like you got a deal on something while you’re there. Because I certainly didn’t get any deals inside the golf shop. In fact, I tried to buy so much stuff a few years ago that I tripped my credit card fraud alert and had to whip out my debit card instead. Had to hide the receipt when I got home, too.

The golf shop isn’t overpriced IMO — it’s high quality swag.

The Masters is the cheapest sporting event you can ever attend. Getting in is the tough part.

Even a round of golf there is not expensive. It’s the invitation that is hard to wrangle.

[budwom]

Touch football could bring back memories of Duke during the years between Spurrier and Cut (except 1994). Unfortunately, our opponents were playing tackle.

Indeed...I still remember the George Welch (crusty UVA coach) quote about running up the score against Duke: "I can't help it if they can't tackle."

[dudog84]

By the way, The PAC 12’s decision may be related to the core group being located in deep blue states. The Big 10 Likely based its decision on academic pride. We may view them as a midwestern version of the SEC, but that group is justifiably proud of their academics (eg, they’d never have accepted several of the colleges that are now part of the ACC).

Gotta call you on this one, and I say that with degrees from both conferences. The ACC only stretched once, and that is Louisville (#192). What made me think you were wrong was Nebraska, and I was right as they are #139, so the Big 10 doesn't deserve any plaudits in the expansion frenzy.

Other than those two schools the conferences are somewhat similar, but a distinct edge goes to the ACC.

https://www.usnews.com/education/bes...-best-colleges

https://www.usnews.com/education/bes...-best-colleges

[PackMan97]

Given UNC-CH's continued standing in those rankings despite running a fake department for 30 years and rampant grade inflation where everyone gets an A...the academic rankings are really total BS.

At NC State I saw kids flunk out of engineering when they busted their balls. My friends at Carolina only talked about how much fun they were having partying and how it was a lot easier than they expected. I don't know what the academics are like at UofL, but I know those rankings mean little. They are gamed and abused.

[uh_no]

Given UNC-CH's continued standing in those rankings despite running a fake department for 30 years and rampant grade inflation where everyone gets an A...the academic rankings are really total BS.

At NC State I saw kids flunk out of engineering when they busted their balls. My friends at Carolina only talked about how much fun they were having partying and how it was a lot easier than they expected. I don't know what the academics are like at UofL, but I know those rankings mean little. They are gamed and abused.

Well, given UNC doesn't have an engineering school...and on average, a UNC A+S undergrad will be somewhat more qualified than an NCSU one, this is not altogether unexpected.

Plenty of duke engineers end up not being able to cut it and move to trinity while their trinity cohorts are partying. Does this mean trinity is not a good education?


My point isn't to give UNC undue credit, but the insinuation that on the large, a UNC education is not rigorous is just silly.

[duke79]

I'm really not sure what the point is in scheduling a spring football season, other than futilely attempting to quell some of the revolt resulting from cancelling the fall season. What is going to change between now and late February, when they'd have to be practicing?

1) COVID won't get less dangerous.
2) COVID won't get less transmissible.
3) Relative to cold/flu season we'll be in the same calendar territory we were when the 2020 NCAAT had to be cancelled.
4) A vaccine may exist but the American population is very unlikely to have received it at scale that early.
5) Football isn't going to be less face-to-face than it is now.
6) 20yo athletes aren't going to be more responsible about transmission/more able to limit transmission in March than they are now.

In spring, people said it would somehow go away in summer because it would be hot. Instead, Americans are dying from it at a clip of about a thousand per day. And as Jim Sumner pointed out in this thread a while ago, it's actually a scarier situation if the heat/humidity has in fact helped. If that's the case, what does October-March flu season look like? A large percentage of the population refuses to take even basic precautions to limit spread.

For purposes of playing football, nothing's going to be different, except the death toll will be much higher by then and the average person will be closer to vaccination day than they are now. If you listen to actual epidemiology professionals, we will not be anywhere close to herd immunity, neither by relatively unchecked transmission nor by mass vaccination.

Absent some magical thinking about vaccine efficacy and delivery, I cannot think of a single reason spring 2021 football will be more feasible than Fall 2020 football.

I think you're completely right here. I would put the announced plans to play college football (and other sports) in the Spring of 2021 under the "wishful thinking" category.

[budwom]

Meanwhile, yet another (inevitable) case of a player asserting that his coaching staff has lied to him about his health and that of his teammates:https://247sports.com/Article/florid...hip-150231920/

I am SO not surprised by this, and the longer they are determined to play, the more of this we'll see.