View Poll Results: When will major pro or college sports resume in America?

Voters
89. You may not vote on this poll
  • Summer: May - July

    8 8.99%
  • Fall: August - October

    41 46.07%
  • Winter: November - January

    17 19.10%
  • First half of 2021: Feb - June

    14 15.73%
  • Second half of 2021: July - Dec

    7 7.87%
  • 2022 or beyond

    2 2.25%
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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Testing, testing, testing. That's the first and most important thing that needs to happen. We don't even know what we're fighting against. I've had multiple friends tell me about severe illness - bronchitis, pneumonia, etc - that required hospitalization in the last couple months. Hospitals did the available tests on them for flu, pneumonia, etc. Once a test came back positive, they stopped testing and treated the "common" illness. They didn't even get a COVID-19 test. Here in New York City, where I live, the rate of people being found dead at home, alone, is way above the normal rate. Those poor souls will never be tested. We just don't know the extent of this yet and won't for some time.
    This is so sad(bolded). I would think that most of those poor souls were older people. I can't imagine having a love one pass away at home alone. We have many older folks in our church and several of them are widows or widowers. I'm president of my Sunday School Class and along with my teacher we try to stay in contact with older people in our class. Our pastor does the same thing but with a membership of over 1500 people it's impossible for him to do it alone. We've only had one person who have passed away from Covid-19. Our church member and her sister both passed away from Covid-19. They were buried side by side on the same day.

    As for when sports will begin, I'm with those who think pro-sports will begin before college sports and that will be with zero fans in attendance. It's going to be interesting to see if MLB will begin play in Arizona as has been mentioned.

    Stay safe everyone and put your family first.

    GoDuke!

  2. #22
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Thanks for turning this into a poll... it'll be interesting to see the (albeit unscientific, haha) results from a group of hardcore sports fan. There was a more scientific poll (although with a small sample size for such polling) that seemed to reflect how "split" the public is on this, although it tried to sample everyone rather than just sports fans.

    I voted and made myself be realistic, as opposed to aspirational... which yielded an "early 2021" choice. I will never have been happier to be proven wrong if things start earlier. But everyone here has done a great job of highlighting the various challenges we face (I won't rehash them), and I think that realistically we're farther away from those things happening than we like to admit.

    The other thing that we haven't talked as much about is the human side of things: how much risk will not only the players, but the various support staff, and finally the fans, be willing to tolerate? Even if we get to the place where we do have the large-scale and rapid testing that we all seem to agree that we'll need, there'll probably be a delay period after that until people are actually confident in those measures. And that doesn't even take into account the policy/bureaucratic nightmare that could ensue. For instance, if there's any chance for people to start attending sporting events in 2020, I imagine there'd have to be some sort of system in place to "validate" that people have tested negative for COVID immediately before attending the event. But there are a lot of Black Mirror-esque consequences that could ensue from the creation of the infrastructure necessary to do that. What type of risk are people willing to tolerate on that end as well?

    That's why I went pessimistic in my answer. I hope against hope I'm wrong. But even if we operate under an optimistic perspective on the scientific side of things, there's also the "human nature" side to take into account that will probably lead to the time frame being longer than just that suggested by the science.

    As a side note: let's imagine that CBB doesn't start until Winter 2021. That would suck. But it could lead to some very interesting and creative solutions. What if there was no non-conference games, but an expanded conference season, to make things easier to plan and also minimize travel? How intense would ACC games be when you knew your post-season aspirations could realistically hinge on every game?
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  3. #23
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    This is so sad(bolded). I would think that most of those poor souls were older people. I can't imagine having a love one pass away at home alone. We have many older folks in our church and several of them are widows or widowers. I'm president of my Sunday School Class and along with my teacher we try to stay in contact with older people in our class. Our pastor does the same thing but with a membership of over 1500 people it's impossible for him to do it alone. We've only had one person who have passed away from Covid-19. Our church member and her sister both passed away from Covid-19. They were buried side by side on the same day.

    As for when sports will begin, I'm with those who think pro-sports will begin before college sports and that will be with zero fans in attendance. It's going to be interesting to see if MLB will begin play in Arizona as has been mentioned.

    Stay safe everyone and put your family first.

    GoDuke!
    I think MLB, the NBA and NHL are all working very hard to get some kind of competition in place by late Spring/early Summer, and definitely with zero fans for the foreseeable future. Latest I heard from MLB was to potentially split into 2 leagues - Grapefruit (FL) and Cactus (AZ) - so that teams could use their regular Spring Training complexes as "home bases". 3 divisions in each, according to geography, not prior league or divisional affiliation. Florida side would definitely have more logistical challenges, but on balance, this makes more sense to me than having all 30 teams in Metro Phoenix.

    I voted for Summer 2020, based on this, fully recognizing that such timing is still quite aspirational, even with zero fans in attendance. FWIW, I think the start date for college sports is much more variable, for reasons cited in this thread.

  4. #24
    I wish we could get some historical perspective on this from past pandemics, but since we've never handled any pandemics in the past like this it seems difficult. Could someone with a bit more insight than me perhaps gleam some insight?

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    I wish we could get some historical perspective on this from past pandemics, but since we've never handled any pandemics in the past like this it seems difficult. Could someone with a bit more insight than me perhaps gleam some insight?
    This is unprecedented in modern history. Not sure how any previous situations would be relevant. Not sure the situation post-Spanish flu? Was a different universe then.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    MLB

    I've read that MLB played during the Spanish flu, but of course the flu was subject to a great deal of seasonal fluctuation, so that might have been a factor, in addition to the general lack of understanding of transmission mechanisms. So it probably has absolutely no bearing on today's situation.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I say Fall, with a prediction that those seasons (FB, BB) will be cut short with a resurgence.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    I voted Winter (November-January) but I really hope I am being too pessimistic. Missing college football season would really be a shame. My vote was cast from a college sports perspective.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  9. #29
    Projections are continuing to drop for Covid-19 infections and deaths. There will also be a heavy toll for continuing with the lock down. Trump is considering reopening the economy soon. The virus will continue to spread and most will be exposed and survive. Those at risk should continue to isolate. Sports can ramp back up gradually. Best case may be the Fall season for most leagues.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    In his chat today, Tom Boswell of the Post addresses the question of when we will have MLB: "Short version: I don't think we're going to see another event in front of 10,000 people --much less 30,000 or 60,000 or more, until there is a vaccine in which the public has confidence and a treatment that is fairly effective for those who DO get the virus.

    That could be a LONG time --like a year or even more from today. We could be going to restaurants, students back in schools and living fairly normal lives in many ways LONG before "big-time sports" gets back to normal.

    As you say, the single most dangerous thing that anybody can imagine during a pandemic is a huge crowd jammed together for hours yelling in each other's faces after a score and high-fiving --like the damage done in Italy by "Game Zero" which I mentioned in a previous chat."

    https://live.washingtonpost.com/ask-...3.html#5959051
    I wouldn't expect students back in school and restaurants open to happen significantly before sports starting up again (although I expect all three to be among the last).

    I voted 2nd half of 2021. Note this is what I think will happen, not necessarily what I think ought to happen.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    My vote was for Feb 2021 with MLB spring training.

    My reasoning is as follows:

    CFB and the NFL need the summer to get ready and we may still be socially distancing at that point.

    The NBA, CBB and NHL need the Fall to get ready and we may still be wondering if a second wave of the virus will come back.

    It won't be until spring 2021 that we are really sure that we are safe, thus MLB.

    My only caveat to that is that the PGA may be able to play tournaments in the Fall but without galleries. The players can socially distance on the course to be safe. (and if you had my golf game where I am in the woods most of the time I can really socially-distance).

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I voted for the fall. I am hoping that there will be a way to have a very limited, controlled amount of sports. I'm not exactly sure what sport it will be and how they will do it. There almost definitely will not be fans in attendance. As much as I am really yearning for sports, I would like for them to take their time - having lived among the constant blare of ambulance sirens and worrying, I don't want this to come right back at us.

    The baseball plan could work, but I have seen some skepticism among players about having to move to Arizona and/or Florida for several months to make it work. The NBA would seem to be the best candidate as it has the fewest participants involved. College sports will lag behind pro and will likely take a while. Sports like tennis and golf should theoretically be easier to restart but I don't know if that moves the needle.

  13. #33
    Eventually I envision a world where we have microchips embedded in our wrists like dogs that contain our complete medical history. Gate attendants will scan us and those without vaccinations will be denied entry, including employees. They will also check our forehead temperatures upon entry. Once inside, arenas and stadiums will employ infrared scanners to identify and remove those fans with unusually high temps that may pose a threat. Hand sanitizer will be abundant and food will be prepared and delivered without human contact. We will need to sacrifice some privacy but we will adapt.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    This is unprecedented in modern history. Not sure how any previous situations would be relevant. Not sure the situation post-Spanish flu? Was a different universe then.
    Wouldn't there be something to be gained from looking back at 2009? I mean there were a lot more infections then and we seemed to get past that. Yes we may find out that there are actually more infections now once we begin testing, but that will also mean the death rate is less in that case. Or did you mean our reaction to the virus (shutting everything down) was unprecedented?

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html I did a quick search and found this, a decent read. There is mention of school closures, second waves, end of the pandemic, etc. Perhaps because we have taken this one more seriously, we'll be able to overcome it quicker. I certainly hope so!
    Last edited by Scorp4me; 04-13-2020 at 07:09 PM.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Do you mean a handful of games or the beginning of a full season (even if the front is lopped off)?
    The poll is to see when major (pro or college) sports teams will begin playing again. It could be the beginning of an abbreviated season or the end of an interrupted one. Sports being played is what we are looking for.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    Wouldn't there be something to be gained from looking back at 2009? I mean there were a lot more infections then and we seemed to get past that. Yes we may find out that there are actually more infections now once we begin testing, but that will also mean the death rate is less in that case.
    What do you mean ....that will also mean the death rate is less in that case.? Im not sure I follow you.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    What do you mean ...that will also mean the death rate is less in that case.? Im not sure I follow you.
    If we find that more people have it, then it follows the death rate will fall. Deaths are a lot harder to miss than those who may be asymptomatic so I think we'll find a lot more who were/are infected, but not a lot more who have died from it. As the number on the bottom gets bigger the rate will be less. I honestly don't mean that sarcastically (I'm sure you know how to figure rate ), just seemed the simplest explanation.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The poll is to see when major (pro or college) sports teams will begin playing again. It could be the beginning of an abbreviated season or the end of an interrupted one. Sports being played is what we are looking for.
    Thanks. I voted for when things would return to full action so I’m into next year.

    FWIW, EPL (top English soccer league) eyeing an early June start without fans per ESPN just now. Would love to see it.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    If we find that more people have it, then it follows the death rate will fall. Deaths are a lot harder to miss than those who may be asymptomatic so I think we'll find a lot more who were/are infected, but not a lot more who have died from it. As the number on the bottom gets bigger the rate will be less. I honestly don't mean that sarcastically (I'm sure you know how to figure rate ), just seemed the simplest explanation.
    Thanks for clarifying, Scorp.

    Anyway, there is a massive undercount of Covid-19 deaths. The true number of those who have died from this disease is way higher than the official numbers would indicate.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    When will we have an adequate supply of accurate, reliable, rapid-result test kits?
    Begs the question, what constitutes an adequate supply in your mind? Is it enough to check breakouts and trace contacts? We have a significant capability now and could double what we are doing by just utilizing available supplies.

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