Do sports, and more specifically NCAAB, return?

[dukelifer]

Many also do not agree with the inflated statistics, theoretical projections and biased scientific studies and are using independent media research which has a whole different view of masks, immunity and vaccines.

This is relevant to this discussion about sports returning to normal because roughly half of the population has this mindset. They do not believe the pandemic is as the liberal media portrays it and are not afraid to enter a packed arena or stadium.

You could be right- but the NCAA will make one decision and individual schools will make theirs and it may not coincide with the interests of those who want to pack stadiums.

[budwom]

I just kind of wonder (since there's no point in arguing) how many deaths will it take (150,000? 250,000?) to move the needle from "liberal media creation" to genuine scientific problem. My own view is that people won't be convinced until someone close to them succumbs.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I just kind of wonder (since there's no point in arguing) how many deaths will it take (150,000? 250,000?) to move the needle from "liberal media creation" to genuine scientific problem. My own view is that people won't be convinced until someone close to them succumbs.

At 250,000, I imagine nearly everyone will be two degrees from a loss.

[JasonEvans]

I am at a loss for what to do right now.

The past 30 or so posts just don't belong in this thread. They probably go in the extensive off-topic thread. That said, it feels wrong to just peel them off from here and give them a new home. It is worthwhile and important for folks on both sides of this issue to see what the other side is thinking and saying. I commend the many posters who have participated in this with reasonably dispassionate, fact-filled responses.

That said, I urge all to be cautious in talking about it further. Even on the thread where we are allowing some small degree of debate about the Coronavirus outbreak we would be coming close to the line. On the main board, this thread is really teetering. Again, thanks to everyone who is dispassionately saying where they stand and what they know, but lets be extra careful going forward.

[budwom]

Time for a How "Bout Them Yanks" thread...speaking of which, (given our topic of sports returning) is this MLB half season really going to happen...? Strange format indeed.

[dm9e24]

There has been 96,000+ deaths with what we have been doing since mid March. We were probably headed toward 150,000 deaths if we changed nothing, which is too late, as all states have opened up to some degree. If every state had been like NY/NJ, there could have been 1,500,000 deaths with the lockdown in place. Thank goodness there wasn't.

The virus isn't going anywhere and deaths are going to continue to rise. 96,000 with lockdowns and soft openings. 150,000 very possible if we stay the course. How many deaths are acceptable and how many are going to happen no matter what direction you go in. I know a number of people who have had the virus, but no deaths so far. Somewhere along the way we have to find out how to live with the it. Who knows when a vaccine will be developed. We certainly can't shelter in place for an unforeseeable time.

As far as sports, I really enjoyed the live golf match and racing last weekend. We will see if any cases come from that small sample. Not sure why that can't continue to happen with both sports. October seems to be a target for crowds. If they open everything up for crowds, people are going to make their own judgement as to whether to go or not. There could be 100,000 people at an Ohio State football game, or 10,000. You look at Central Park this past weekend or Virginia Beach near me. Thousands of people gathered. Central Park!!! In the middle of the epicenter!! Fear seems to go away pretty quickly. Let's see where we are in 5 months.

[rsvman]

I'm not sure that it is because fear went away but perhaps more because this generation isn't used to having many real hardships, and certainly isn't used to sheltering in place. People don't have the patience for it. At some point they just say heck with it. Que sera sera.

[bundabergdevil]

I just kind of wonder (since there's no point in arguing) how many deaths will it take (150,000? 250,000?) to move the needle from "liberal media creation" to genuine scientific problem. My own view is that people won't be convinced until someone close to them succumbs.

There are only 2 kinds of people in this world: Bill Murrays at the beginning of Groundhog Day and Bill Murrays at the end of Groundhog Day.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

So, last year, in hopes of Zion Williamson returning, I stated that if he would never come, and if he did, yada yada yada; Williamson returning was more important to me than posting on this board. This year, I posted again, making another reverse jinx joke about Moore being injured (akin to the "it's over statement", about Boozer's injury).

Anyway...

As many of said in this post, publicly wearing a mask has very little to do with one's self; it is an agreed upon declaration to those around each of us. In much the same way that when I am driving a car, I agree, as do those around me, not to drive on the sidewalk, mindlessly swerve, or make sudden, unnecessary stops.

Exaggeration or not. Validity or falsity. As a society (globally, in point of fact), there are times, when each of us agrees that the betterment of "us" is more vital than the betterment of "me." Is it an annoyance? Of course it is. Is it frustrating? Unquestionably. However, being late for work, and still having to adhere to the agreed upon rules of the road, is annoying, is frustrating, but the potentiality of risk to others, is more meaningful than doing what is best for the "me."

[CameronBornAndBred]

How will high school sports be affected? I was thinking about this, especially for football. If HS isn't playing, then nobody is watching them to evaluate recruiting. With basketball, I guess you have the side circuits where you can play outside of your school team and showcase your skills, but that's not the case with football.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So, last year, in hopes of Zion Williamson returning, I stated that if he would never come, and if he did, yada yada yada; Williamson returning was more important to me than posting on this board. This year, I posted again, making another reverse jinx joke about Moore being injured (akin to the "it's over statement", about Boozer's injury).

Anyway...

As many of said in this post, publicly wearing a mask has very little to do with one's self; it is an agreed upon declaration to those around each of us. In much the same way that when I am driving a car, I agree, as do those around me, not to drive on the sidewalk, mindlessly swerve, or make sudden, unnecessary stops.

Exaggeration or not. Validity or falsity. As a society (globally, in point of fact), there are times, when each of us agrees that the betterment of "us" is more vital than the betterment of "me." Is it an annoyance? Of course it is. Is it frustrating? Unquestionably. However, being late for work, and still having to adhere to the agreed upon rules of the road, is annoying, is frustrating, but the potentiality of risk to others, is more meaningful than doing what is best for the "me."

The more days I wear a mask for eight hours, the less patience I have for people who don't want to wear one for fifteen minutes.

[Steven43]

The more days I wear a mask for eight hours, the less patience I have for people who don't want to wear one for fifteen minutes.

Yeah, I’m definitely with you on that. I still can’t believe that the idea of wearing a mask to help prevent a virus from being spread during a worldwide pandemic somehow became politicized. It just boggles the mind.

Anyway, is there word on Duke Basketball yet? Any word on what Coach K has been up to? Is he mostly staying home? I sure hope so.

[richardjackson199]

NBA is looking to resume this season in late July:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...sports-complex

in Florida, where Dana White and ESPN brought back UFC

[Blue in the Face]

NHL has an announcement this afternoon about a 24 team playoff format. (Expected to be teams 5-12 in each conference playing best of 5 series in a play-in round, and top 4 in each conference playing a round robin for seeding).

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/st...oday-1.1479427

[johnb]

I'd be overjoyed if Duke played fall and winter sports.

That would mean that in the space of 2 months, some combination of 4 things happened:
covid disappeared;
covid morphed (worldwide) into a benign virus;
covid significantly responded to a safe and definitive treatment;
covid spurred the world's humans to the holy triad: washing, masks, distance.

I guess anything is possible, but none strikes me as remotely likely. The seasonal hope is there, though I'd be more reassured if Brazil didn't have 80 degree weather and 23,000+ known deaths.

I don't count vaccines as possible. There's no way for a vaccine to be shown to be safe and effective, distributed worldwide, taken by 75% of Americans, and then shown to be working across the population by January, in time to allow a basketball schedule. Each of those steps just takes too long, and science rarely goes so smoothly. But who knows?

I guess we could get some combo of the above leading to a prolonged low rate of infections and persistent following of the behavioral triad, so that very frequent testing of a subgroup would mean a reasonable level of safety for college students in contact sports (though college in general is a contact sport as I recall).

I'd say, however, that the most likely scenario for August/September is more of the same, with increasingly dangerous behavior and overall cases/deaths that oscillate but remain dangerously too high.

At the risk of being called a wanker, it strikes me as "interesting" that a third of the country seems to believe that covid is a hoax. I can nourish conspiracy as much as the next guy, and I fully believe that many people enjoy the failures of their opponents (schadenfreude is juicy). I do believe the stats that indicate that wealth has become increasingly concentrated, and that many people with wealth and power wish to retain and use their wealth and power. I am confident that many people would trade some nationwide failures if they're reversible and lead to a new presidential administration. I also understand that most people don't understand statistics and that many people are not living in covid hotspots.

My biggest point of confusion is that a hoax implies that that there is an organized agreement that would include ALMOST EVERYONE from a variety of disciplines that feature people who pride themselves on independence (medicine, nursing, public health, epidemiology, government, long-term care, police, intelligence agencies, EMT's, hospitals, funeral homes, tv commentators, videographers of mass graves, newspapers) in EVERY COUNTRY that has a modicum of freedom. And that would imply a level of organization and discipline that I have simply never seen. It'd also mean I'm in on it, and I'm never in on the cool secrets.

Given the above, I can imagine the NBA going into a bubble for 6 weeks--it'd be expensive, but they're rich, and the viewership would be huge. I am sure they'll aim for pro baseball without audiences, which might be do-able; longer season and bigger rosters, plus they've missed spring trg, but they don't breath on each other. Pro football will probably be tried out because, well, football's a conservative sport, but even with regular testing, they're going to routinely have guys who are playing while positive.

Nevertheless, unless things dramatically improve, I'd guess I'd be okay with Duke golf. I'd watch. Maybe swimming? Maybe tennis with balls rotated through bright lights between points? I can then imagine a scenario in which Duke opts out of the football/bball seasons, but the ACC and NCAA goes forward. That'd be difficult. But if things haven't changed dramatically by August (or January), I'd be extremely disappointed if Duke exposed its students to the current level of risk in order to play a sport. Oh, and it wouldn't be enough to offer an opt-out option. 20 year old athletes are going to largely trust their coach and teammates; if the games are played, they'll show up.

[sagegrouse]

I'd be overjoyed if Duke played fall and winter sports.

That would mean that in the space of 2 months, some combination of 4 things happened:
covid disappeared;
covid morphed (worldwide) into a benign virus;
covid significantly responded to a safe and definitive treatment;
covid spurred the world's humans to the holy triad: washing, masks, distance.

I guess anything is possible, but none strikes me as remotely likely. The seasonal hope is there, though I'd be more reassured if Brazil didn't have 80 degree weather and 23,000+ known deaths.

I don't count vaccines as possible. There's no way for a vaccine to be shown to be safe and effective, distributed worldwide, taken by 75% of Americans, and then shown to be working across the population by January, in time to allow a basketball schedule. Each of those steps just takes too long, and science rarely goes so smoothly. But who knows?

I guess we could get some combo of the above leading to a prolonged low rate of infections and persistent following of the behavioral triad, so that very frequent testing of a subgroup would mean a reasonable level of safety for college students in contact sports (though college in general is a contact sport as I recall).

I'd say, however, that the most likely scenario for August/September is more of the same, with increasingly dangerous behavior and overall cases/deaths that oscillate but remain dangerously too high.

At the risk of being called a wanker, it strikes me as "interesting" that a third of the country seems to believe that covid is a hoax. I can nourish conspiracy as much as the next guy, and I fully believe that many people enjoy the failures of their opponents (schadenfreude is juicy). I do believe the stats that indicate that wealth has become increasingly concentrated, and that many people with wealth and power wish to retain and use their wealth and power. I am confident that many people would trade some nationwide failures if they're reversible and lead to a new presidential administration. I also understand that most people don't understand statistics and that many people are not living in covid hotspots.

.

A thoughtful post, as I have come to expect. Perhaps an explanation for your boldfaced sentence might begin with the following quote:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." -- Upton Sinclair

Or, as might be recast:

"It is difficult to get people to understand something when their continued social life depends upon their not understanding it."

Ergo, the party-goers tout the false belief that the novel coronavirus is no worse than the flu, and the flu requires no extraordinary actions. Except, of course, the flu has a vaccine that is partially effective and the death rate from the flu, according to my guru, RSVMan, is one-tenth that of COVID-19.

[DoubleBlue]

Perhaps some have not seen that the CDC has now stated that the death rate for Covid-19 is as low as 0.26%:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/20...26_512111.html
https://www.westernjournal.com/cdcs-...initial-claim/

Contrary to what is implied in previous posts, those who do not wear facemasks and who want businesses to start back up are not selfish fools... most are truly concerned about the American economy and the heavy toll that continued lock-downs will impose on the general public.

I suggest that those who only read/watch/listen to corporate media should try to branch out a bit into independent media sources. Although not all high quality, it has more truth and objectivity.

[Stray Gator]

Perhaps some have not seen that the CDC has now stated that the death rate for Covid-19 is as low as 0.26%:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/20...26_512111.html
https://www.westernjournal.com/cdcs-...initial-claim/

Contrary to what is implied in previous posts, those who do not wear facemasks and who want businesses to start back up are not selfish fools... most are truly concerned about the American economy and the heavy toll that continued lock-downs will impose on the general public.

I suggest that those who only read/watch/listen to corporate media should try to branch out a bit into independent media sources. Although not all high quality, it has more truth and objectivity.

What I glean from reading those two linked articles is that the death rate for people who become infected with COVID-19 "could be as low as 0.26%," if we include the estimated 35% of infected people who are asymptomatic; but even if that lowball estimate proves to be accurate, it still means that the death rate for COVID-19 is double the death rate for seasonal flu. So those who dismiss the need for face coverings and social distancing on the premise that COVID-19 "is no worse than the flu" are clearly wrong. The fact that the original estimates of the death rate may prove to have been overstated doesn't alter the fact that this virus is nonetheless a terrible tragedy that has cost far too many lives -- and is certainly no comfort to the families and friends of the nearly 100,000 Americans who have died so far.

What I'm unable to comprehend is your statement that most of those who do not wear facemasks "are truly concerned about the American economy." I believe it's fair to say that there is general agreement and understanding that the main purpose of ordinary face coverings is to help prevent others from becoming infected, since only the N95 masks are effective at protecting the person wearing the mask. In the polls I've seen, it appears that about 70% of Americans are in favor of requiring that face coverings be worn when among other people in an indoor space; and given the fact that the wearing of face coverings tends to be inconvenient and uncomfortable, I think it's also fair to conclude that the reason most people favor such a requirement is because they recognize that it helps to limit their potential exposure to the virus.

While I can't offer any statistical support, I can tell you that for me, and I strongly suspect that for many others, if I see a lot of people in a store or restaurant or other enclosed space without face coverings, I'm not going in. Which means that store or restaurant isn't going to get any business from me. Consequently, those who refuse to wear face masks are, in effect, discouraging the patronage of people like me who see face coverings on others as important for our own protection. To that extent, at least, it seems that those who do not wear face masks are not showing that they "are truly concerned about the American economy," but instead are demonstrating their disdain for the safety and security of others, and thereby impeding economic recovery.

In what way do you perceive that people who do not wear face coverings are helping the American economy?

[jv001]

Now back to the ball game. Oh, wait there isn't one and that's what this thread is about. I still believe we'll have some form of baseball maybe starting in July, we'll have college football that will begin in December, we'll have PGA events and we'll have NFL for a full season. I don't care if we don't have NBA, NHL, tennis or soccer. I don't believe we'll have fans at any of the sports that do open.

GoDuke and GTHC.

[budwom]

I liked johnb's post, but I think (just my opinion) that he underestimates the extent to which colleges are addicted to television revenue to keep their athletic budgets afloat. As such I'm pretty sure you'll see Fall sports because the football TV money is too great for them to ignore...fans in the seats is quite another matter, you might have to wander down to SEC/Big 12 country to find packed stadiums... I'm not saying this is a good idea, just noting the current trade winds.

Check out the Notre Dame president's comments, pretty clear he wants games and the revenue that just happens to come with it. If nothing else, colleges are money vacuums.