2020-2021 Roster

[budwom]

If he beats out Roach, then I agree. Otherwise, he'll be under 20 mpg most likely. I'd guess 90+% of the time, bench players who are in the rotation average < 20 mpg.

I don't think it has anything at all to beating out Roach or anyone else (just as he didn't "beat out" Tre Jones). He's a really good defender, and K plays really good defenders, especially on a team with so many frosh.
Roach and Goldwire will play together.

[scottdude8]

People on the board seem to be very down on Williams ability to instantly impact the team next season... but he’s still a 5* guy and you can’t teach 7-foot-1. Is there some development I missed? From what I’ve seen/read of him I’d be a bit surprised if he’d end up relegated to the “deep bench”, but I could be wrong.

[Troublemaker]

I don't think it has anything at all to beating out Roach or anyone else (just as he didn't "beat out" Tre Jones). He's a really good defender, and K plays really good defenders, especially on a team with so many frosh.
Roach and Goldwire will play together.

He beat out AOC to start next to Tre Jones. If JGold starts fewer than 5 games, he will average fewer than 20 mpg.

But as you said, we'll see.

[Troublemaker]

People on the board seem to be very down on Williams ability to instantly impact the team next season... but he’s still a 5* guy and you can’t teach 7-foot-1. Is there some development I missed? From what I’ve seen/read of him I’d be a bit surprised if he’d end up relegated to the “deep bench”, but I could be wrong.

You're not missing anything. As roywhite said upthread, there will be a wide range of opinions this early in the rotation discussion. You shouldn't take my stab at it to be some sort of consensus opinion. (Far from it, actually.) I think a lot of people believe Mark will start.

[Kedsy]

I'd guess 90+% of the time, bench players who are in the rotation average < 20 mpg.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "not starting." I see in a later post you mention fewer than 5 starts. If that's your definition, your statement above is closer to correct. But my guess is Jordan gets more than 5 starts but less than half (I also personally think he'll get between 15 and 20 minutes, but that's neither here nor there).

In any event, here's a list of Duke players in the last 10 seasons who started fewer than half the games and averaged > 20 mpg:

2020 Jordan Goldwire (15 starts, 24.1 mpg)
2020 Wendell Moore (11 starts, 24.0 mpg)
2019 Jack White (3 starts, 20.5 mpg)
2017 Frank Jackson (16 starts, 24.9 mpg)
2016 Luke Kennard (11 starts, 26.7 mpg)
2015 Matt Jones (14 starts, 21.7 mpg)
2014 Rasheed Sulaimon (17 starts, 25.6 mpg)
2013 Tyler Thornton (6 starts, 22.0 mpg)
2012 Andre Dawkins (14 starts, 22.4 mpg)
2012 Miles Plumlee (16 starts, 20.5 mpg)
2011 Andre Dawkins (7 starts, 21.0 mpg)

[Troublemaker]

I guess it depends on what you mean by "not starting." I see in a later post you mention fewer than 5 starts. If that's your definition, your statement above is closer to correct. But my guess is Jordan gets more than 5 starts but less than half (I also personally think he'll get between 15 and 20 minutes, but that's neither here nor there).

In any event, here's a list of Duke players in the last 10 seasons who started fewer than half the games and averaged > 20 mpg:

Yeah, I don't think we're too far apart since I said I could envision 15 mpg. I think we both agree that he'll need to start a decent amount of games because starting is what really gets your average playing time up, with some notable exceptions like Dunleavy in 2000.

[proelitedota]

5:
Mark
Tape
Coleman

5, 4:
Jaemyn

5, 4, 3:
Jalen
Hurt

4, 3, 2, 1:
Moore

4, 3, 2:
Baker

2, 1:
DJ
JGold
Roach

If Hurt returns, we'll be forced to playing a small lineup with Jalen / Hurt at the 5 as that's our best lineup.

If Hurt is gone, then one of Jaemyn, Patrick, Mark, Coleman is likely to be the center.

[jv001]

5:
Mark
Tape
Coleman

5, 4:
Jaemyn

5, 4, 3:
Jalen
Hurt

4, 3, 2, 1:
Moore

4, 3, 2:
Baker

2, 1:
DJ-2
JGold
Roach

If Hurt returns, we'll be forced to playing a small lineup with Jalen / Hurt at the 5 as that's our best lineup.

If Hurt is gone, then one of Jaemyn, Patrick, Mark, Coleman is likely to be the center.

If Hurt leaves, that doesn't leave us with many good perimeter shooters. If he leaves that gives us, Baker, Steward and Jordan as our best outside shooters. Of course we don't really know how the freshmen are going to shoot the 3 ball. We didn't think Cassius would be a good shooter but he was better than we anticipated. So, I guess one or more of our freshmen could step up and surprise us.

As for minutes, I'd say Jordan will get around 20 minutes just on his defense alone and he wasn't a terrible 3 point shooter this past season. We really need Matthew to return.

GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

People on the board seem to be very down on Williams ability to instantly impact the team next season... but he’s still a 5* guy and you can’t teach 7-foot-1. Is there some development I missed? From what I’ve seen/read of him I’d be a bit surprised if he’d end up relegated to the “deep bench”, but I could be wrong.

I think he’s a “borderline” five star, ranked in the high 20’s though he does seem to be rising. Most players ranked in that range aren’t instant impact as freshmen, especially not big men. Also players who are really skinny tend to need more time to adjust. We know he’s not an Okafor/Bagley/Carey level talent so we’re trying to temper expectations. I do expect him to play a big role and to start a fair number of games.

[Kedsy]

I think he’s a “borderline” five star, ranked in the high 20’s though he does seem to be rising. Most players ranked in that range aren’t instant impact as freshmen, especially not big men. Also players who are really skinny tend to need more time to adjust. We know he’s not an Okafor/Bagley/Carey level talent so we’re trying to temper expectations. I do expect him to play a big role and to start a fair number of games.

Plus, his sister was really, really good.

[jimsumner]

Plus, his sister was really, really good.

Still is.

[Kedsy]

Still is.

Ah, you got me. I meant as a college player.

[SilkyJ]

People on the board seem to be very down on Williams ability to instantly impact the team next season... but he’s still a 5* guy and you can’t teach 7-foot-1. Is there some development I missed? From what I’ve seen/read of him I’d be a bit surprised if he’d end up relegated to the “deep bench”, but I could be wrong.

He’ll get some run, but probably with a quick hook/short leash. He seems to be more in the mold of Casey Sanders, Eric Boateng, Zoubek, Javin, etc. than Bagley, Vern, Jah.

We are short on quality post players (big assumptions being that Jalen is a more of a wing and Hurt is more Ryan Kelly than Mason Plumlee) and so I do see a role for him to play.

But my guess is he is a bit of a project so his minutes will fluctuate quite a bit, which they often do for freshman who are still figuring it out. He projects as a multi-year player, which in some ways is a good thing.

[rocketeli]

He’ll get some run, but probably with a quick hook/short leash. He seems to be more in the mold of Casey Sanders, Eric Boateng, Zoubek, Javin, etc. than Bagley, Vern, Jah.

We are short on quality post players (big assumptions being that Jalen is a more of a wing and Hurt is more Ryan Kelly than Mason Plumlee) and so I do see a role for him to play.

But my guess is he is a bit of a project so his minutes will fluctuate quite a bit, which they often do for freshman who are still figuring it out. He projects as a multi-year player, which in some ways is a good thing.

Williams is an intriguing player, because he is 7 feet tall and not a "stiff." He moves well and has pretty good athleticism. Will he have a chance to develop his skills? K historically has been very quick to yank a raw big out of games, which some players don't respond well to. But if Williams could develop a reliable outside shot? That would make him a very valuable player.
Honestly, I haven't been this uncertain in my mind about what player will do what on next years team in a long time.