The impact of Mark, Jaemyn & Henry

[Jaks19]

The Brotherhood is ready for all of you show what you can bring to the post next season.

[Furniture]

The Brotherhood is ready for all of you show what you can bring to the post next season.

?...

[flyingdutchdevil]

I am so confused by this thread

[Troublemaker]

Jaks is basically saying, "In light of Tapés decommitment, let's not forget that we already have Mark, Henry, and Jaemyn coming in to help the frontcourt."

Of course Jaks forgot all about Jalen Johnson. Many Duke fans are either unaware are in denial of how much Jalen will be playing the 4 and 5 next season.

[Jaks19]

With Tapé electing to not come to Duke, I think it's time to not only acknowledge, but be excited for the guys coming in.

I didnt forget about Johnson, but I think the will do much more than just play in the post.

[DukieInBrasil]

With Tapé electing to not come to Duke, I think it's time to not only acknowledge, but be excited for the guys coming in.

I didnt forget about Johnson, but I think the will do much more than just play in the post.

I agree with your sentiment. Although it's great to have players that check the boxes that Tapé does, and most critically he checked "experience" and "heft", it's also great to have versatility in the players that a team has. I don't claim to be a recruiting expert but it seems that the 3 bigs that you highlighted bring a lot of different looks, versatility if you will, to the frontcourt. Unfortunately, none of them bring experience, and none bring both heft and experience, so Coach K would have to get creative. Fortunately that is one of K's strengths.
I think Tapé's presence would have been a net positive for the team, but we'll never know. I think Duke could still benefit from a grad-student transfer a la Tapé, although i honestly have no idea if there are other 6'10 Sr.s that are looking to do the grad-student transfer thing with a resumé as compelling as Tapé's.

[scottdude8]

I think the confusion is that “Welcome to Duke” threads are typically reserved for new commitments... a thread discussing our three incoming bigs and how they might influence the 2020-21 team is great, just the title is going to confuse longtime members of the board.

[Truth&Justise]

I think the confusion is that “Welcome to Duke” threads are typically reserved for new commitments... a thread discussing our three incoming bigs and how they might influence the 2020-21 team is great, just the title is going to confuse longtime members of the board.

Yeah, the title confused me (why welcome these guys now? and not the other freshmen?) and the discussion seems poised to be a retread of the Patrick Tapé thread. Maybe fold this one into that?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Come on folks. Relatively new poster started this thread with good intentions. Let's not dump on him/her.

[Jaks19]

Yea, I should have just said the impact of. I dont know how to edit it to change.

Sorry guys

[Furniture]

No sorry needed....

[scottdude8]

No sorry needed...

Yup all good! Sorry if my post came across poorly, was more just trying to explain things rather than pile on.

[Natty_B]

I'm skeptical freshman big guys ranked well outside the top 10 (and actually outside the top 20) can contribute game in and game out next year. Would love to be prove wrong!

[JasonEvans]

I changed the thread title.

Though I wonder how much insight any of us really have into all this. We have very little idea how any of these guys will do against ACC-level competition. Their collective ranking within this recruiting class shows that they are not the kind of players who typically have a large impact on the team during their freshman season. I would love to see these guys prove that history wrong.

[Kedsy]

I changed the thread title.

Though I wonder how much insight any of us really have into all this. We have very little idea how any of these guys will do against ACC-level competition. Their collective ranking within this recruiting class shows that they are not the kind of players who typically have a large impact on the team during their freshman season. I would love to see these guys prove that history wrong.

While it's true that guys in Jaemyn's and Henry's current ranking rarely contribute as freshmen (Cassius Stanley being the only example in at least the last 22 years), guys ranked where Mark Williams is now occasionally do. The key to players ranked in the mid- to late-20s (Mark was ranked #28 in the Summer RSCI) is opportunity. Sometimes there just isn't a guy on the roster who is clearly ahead of the late-20s recruit, and that does seem to be the case now with Mark.

FWIW, there have been four recruits ranked from 25 to 30 who have had such an opportunity at Duke since the RSCI was invented in 1998. All four did pretty well:

#26 Mike Dunleavy (24.1 mpg; 9.1 ppg; 4.3 rpg; 1.7 apg; 1.1 spg)
#29 Daniel Ewing (18.2 mpg; 6.5 ppg; 2.2 rpg; 1.3 apg; 0.9 spg)
#28 Jon Scheyer (33.7 mpg; 12.2 ppg; 3.3 prg; 1.8 apg; 1.2 spg)
#25 Wendell Moore (24.0 mpg; 7.4 ppg; 4.2 rpg; 1.9 apg; 0.9 spg)

Note the caveat that none of those four were bigs, and young bigs often seem to take more time to develop. But something like 7 ppg; 6 rpg; 1.3 bpg is not out of the realm of possibility for Mr. Williams next season. Is that a "large impact"? I'd say yes, but of course YMMV.

[flyingdutchdevil]

While it's true that guys in Jaemyn's and Henry's current ranking rarely contribute as freshmen (Cassius Stanley being the only example in at least the last 22 years), guys ranked where Mark Williams is now occasionally do. The key to players ranked in the mid- to late-20s (Mark was ranked #28 in the Summer RSCI) is opportunity. Sometimes there just isn't a guy on the roster who is clearly ahead of the late-20s recruit, and that does seem to be the case now with Mark.

FWIW, there have been four recruits ranked from 25 to 30 who have had such an opportunity at Duke since the RSCI was invented in 1998. All four did pretty well:

#26 Mike Dunleavy (24.1 mpg; 9.1 ppg; 4.3 rpg; 1.7 apg; 1.1 spg)
#29 Daniel Ewing (18.2 mpg; 6.5 ppg; 2.2 rpg; 1.3 apg; 0.9 spg)
#28 Jon Scheyer (33.7 mpg; 12.2 ppg; 3.3 prg; 1.8 apg; 1.2 spg)
#25 Wendell Moore (24.0 mpg; 7.4 ppg; 4.2 rpg; 1.9 apg; 0.9 spg)

Note the caveat that none of those four were bigs, and young bigs often seem to take more time to develop. But something like 7 ppg; 6 rpg; 1.3 bpg is not out of the realm of possibility for Mr. Williams next season. Is that a "large impact"? I'd say yes, but of course YMMV.

7, 6, and 1.3? I’d take that in a heartbeat. Javin averaged 3.5/3.5/1.0 this season and he never averaged more than 3.8 points.

That said, I’d be pleasantly shocked if Mark averaged 7/6/1.3.

I think the C position will be filled by committee next year. Hope I’m wrong, but it’s a clear weakness to me right now.

[Saratoga2]

I agree with your sentiment. Although it's great to have players that check the boxes that Tapé does, and most critically he checked "experience" and "heft", it's also great to have versatility in the players that a team has. I don't claim to be a recruiting expert but it seems that the 3 bigs that you highlighted bring a lot of different looks, versatility if you will, to the frontcourt. Unfortunately, none of them bring experience, and none bring both heft and experience, so Coach K would have to get creative. Fortunately that is one of K's strengths.
I think Tapé's presence would have been a net positive for the team, but we'll never know. I think Duke could still benefit from a grad-student transfer a la Tapé, although i honestly have no idea if there are other 6'10 Sr.s that are looking to do the grad-student transfer thing with a resumé as compelling as Tapé's.

What tape brought with his experience, size and heft is insurance that the injury bug and/or the freshman tendency to foul at a high rate would have been reduced as a potential negative factor. Only time will tell if not getting a second true big man will bite us against power teams.

[Kedsy]

7, 6, and 1.3? I’d take that in a heartbeat. Javin averaged 3.5/3.5/1.0 this season and he never averaged more than 3.8 points.

Javin only averaged 13 mpg. His per-20 minute averages were 5.3/5.4/1.3. I'm suggesting Mark Williams could see 20+ mpg next season, which is why I chose those pg numbers.

[Troublemaker]

I'm skeptical freshman big guys ranked well outside the top 10 (and actually outside the top 20) can contribute game in and game out next year. Would love to be prove wrong!

I agree. If we had a Jahlil Okafor who could dominate inside, then by all means play him as a starter. But if you don't have a premium big, it makes sense to just have open space in the middle instead so that when Jalen Johnson drives to the basket, he isn't met by length. Jalen, with his size, athleticism, and good dribble skills for his size can be responsible for the bulk of Duke's interior scoring when he drives. But hopefully we surround him with enough shooting so he's not constantly met by length at the basket and guards digging down before he even reaches the basket.

I'm a "Hurt over Williams" guy and a "Steward over Roach" guy. I'm also a "Baker over Moore" guy but that's just unrealistic based on how Coach K played them last season. I do hope the other two moves get made.

Give me: Steward - Stanley - Moore - Johnson - Hurt.

Please, Coach K. Be mindful of spacing.

[jv001]

I agree. If we had a Jahlil Okafor who could dominate inside, then by all means play him as a starter. But if you don't have a premium big, it makes sense to just have open space in the middle instead so that when Jalen Johnson drives to the basket, he isn't met by length. Jalen, with his size, athleticism, and good dribble skills for his size can be responsible for the bulk of Duke's interior scoring when he drives. But hopefully we surround him with enough shooting so he's not constantly met by length at the basket and guards digging down before he even reaches the basket.

I'm a "Hurt over Williams" guy and a "Steward over Roach" guy. I'm also a "Baker over Moore" guy but that's just unrealistic based on how Coach K played them last season. I do hope the other two moves get made.

Give me: Steward - Stanley - Moore - Johnson - Hurt.

Please, Coach K. Be mindful of spacing.

That gives us 3 outside shooters if Steward is as good as I've heard but if we don't defend, we'll see Goldwire in pretty quickly. From what I've heard, I think Jeremy will be a good defender as well. As for bigs, Williams has the reputation for being a good shot blocker and rebounder. There's probably going to be some mitch and match coming from the GOAT.

GoDuke!