Tapé replay - Patrick recommits to Duke!!

[scottdude8]

The problem is that Patrick's skillset at Columbia showed a guy with offensive potential but not a great deal of rebounding (and possibly slow-ish feet for defending Big-6 players). He should deliver on the fouls though -- his foul rate per minute against Big-6 competition was significantly worse than Javin's this past season.

He can block shots, though again, probably at a worse rate than Javin did this past season. Hopefully, he'll pick up Coach K's defensive schemes quickly and be a plus on the defensive end, but it's difficult to predict that will actually happen. I suspect Mark Williams will be both a better defender and a better rebounder, though not nearly as polished as Patrick on offense.

In other words, Patrick Tape gives us a big body with experience (though it's arguable how much his experience at the lower levels of the Ivy League will prepare him for the ACC). But just being big and experienced doesn't guarantee the defense and rebounding you crave. Obviously, we can hope.

I think all Patrick needs to do this season is be some form of Javin. In a worst-case scenario he's "bad Javin": a foul-heavy big who can only be relied on for 5-10 mpg. In a best-case scenario he's "good Javin": a big who gives major energy off the bench, may push for starters minutes during his hot streaks, and can be a complementary scorer. No matter where in that range he falls, it's a role this team needed filled (as we discussed when it looked like Patrick was gone, his absence would likely mean prolonged minutes with Hurt at the 5, which wouldn't be ideal). In my mind anything we get from him that's more than him being a backup big that has 5 fouls to give will end up being a very nice bonus.

[Troublemaker]

I made a typo in my first response because it should have read 'is not known for his 3pt shooting"

I am a prem subscriber for another cite and there are recruiting guru's on that site that indicated that he will be a stud at Duke and projected in the top 5 draft picks in the 2021.
(I will not share or link prem info from another cite on this board.)

Additionally, the finally 20202 rankings have not been undated yet. I am not saying that he will go up in the rankings.

That's okay because I don't consider that to be appropriate evidence of why Jalen's ranking fell or that he's a stud. The reason RSCI (or 247's composite) is generally regarded as useful around here is because it's an average of the opinions of several "recruiting gurus" and not just the opinion of one Duke recruiting site that, btw, might have a bias regarding a Duke recruit.

[devildeac]

[budwom]

The problem is that Patrick's skillset at Columbia showed a guy with offensive potential but not a great deal of rebounding (and possibly slow-ish feet for defending Big-6 players). He should deliver on the fouls though -- his foul rate per minute against Big-6 competition was significantly worse than Javin's this past season.

He can block shots, though again, probably at a worse rate than Javin did this past season. Hopefully, he'll pick up Coach K's defensive schemes quickly and be a plus on the defensive end, but it's difficult to predict that will actually happen. I suspect Mark Williams will be both a better defender and a better rebounder, though not nearly as polished as Patrick on offense.

In other words, Patrick Tape gives us a big body with experience (though it's arguable how much his experience at the lower levels of the Ivy League will prepare him for the ACC). But just being big and experienced doesn't guarantee the defense and rebounding you crave. Obviously, we can hope.

I know you're heavily driven by stats, and in this case you may be absolutely right. However, I'd like to think that K and his staff have watched a lot of "film" on Tape and have come to a conclusion that he can defend and rebound at an acceptable level...they've passed on other prospects, so evidently they see something they like...and of course Patrick gave them a chance to reconsider when he decommitted, so by taking him back, I suspect (but don't know) that they see more potential in him than you do...I guess we'll see.

[jimsumner]

The evidence that Jalen Johnson's slight drop in the rankings corresponds to his not playing could be the fact that he was dropping in the rankings when he wasn't playing.

Duke expects him to be a stud. A day one starter. There are a lot of question marks about next year's team. Johnson's ability to be a significant contributor should not be one. No one is keeping him out of the starting lineup.

[MChambers]

[Banana]

In post 114, Billy Dat linked an article on Tapés possible decommitment that was written by Adam Rowe for The Devils Den. I suspect this article was/is behind a pay wall, but even if so, it has already been linked on this board. In that article, dated April 2, Adam says "Tape spoke with Duke's coaching staff last night", i.e. on April 1, about his second thoughts on playing for Duke. I am not suggesting that Tapés temporary decommitment was an April Fool's joke. Far from it! I am sure he agonized over his decision to decommit and then again in deciding to recommit. But there does seem to be an April Fools karma about these decisions, even though unintended.

[sagegrouse]

You gotta give context to your posts. Given this thread is about Tape, throwing in a post about Jalen without a) referencing his name or b) replying to an existing post is very, very confusing.

Just some friendly advice.

From your Dutch uncle.

[Troublemaker]

The evidence that Jalen Johnson's slight drop in the rankings corresponds to his not playing could be the fact that he was dropping in the rankings when he wasn't playing.

Then Jalen's ranking will be restored in the final rankings since he has now played for Nicolet, right? Absent that, I have to believe the recruiting sites just soured on him a little bit. (Not that they have to be correct in their assessment).

Duke expects him to be a stud. A day one starter. There are a lot of question marks about next year's team. Johnson's ability to be a significant contributor should not be one. No one is keeping him out of the starting lineup.

That's somewhat comforting to read but note that you are giving 3 very different levels of expectations here. "Starter", "significant contributor", and "stud." The first two levels were already assumed by everyone, I'm guessing. Duke needs him to be a stud, an All-American candidate, to be a major contender. That's the question, and if the coaches believe he is that level of player, then that's terrific news, which I thank you for sharing.

[BD80]

It's Like You Never Left - Dave Mason

It may be more like this Mason-ic offering:





No cinder blocks were harmed in the posting of this video.

[budwom]

I never worry about kids' rankings once they're committed, because they are who they are and someone changing a ranking means zip. Johnson's an elite guy, that's all we need to know...

[BD80]

From your Dutch uncle.

The one who used to drink constantly before he left the old country; AKA: "Holland days sauced?"

[Jaks19]

Well, with all of this said, I think everyone can mutually agree that Jalen does not have good shooting stats and that is an area he needs to improve while he contributes at Duke next year.

The speculation of his impact is fodder for the board.

In any case, Duke is getting a very good, versatile player.

[Troublemaker]

I never worry about kids' rankings once they're committed, because they are who they are and someone changing a ranking means zip. Johnson's an elite guy, that's all we need to know...

I mean, I think the point is that we don't know that.

You can check previous classes in the 247 Composite.

In 2019, the #11 ranked guy was Kahlil Whitney.
In 2018, Simi Shittu.
In 2017, Kevin Knox.
In 2016, Malik Monk
In 2015, Stephen Zimmerman

Too lazy to check further, but that's a 20% hit rate for stud/elite. (I suspect if I checked further, the percentage would dip).

That's why Jalen's ranking matters. (To the extent that anything sports-related matters in the grand scheme of things).

[devildeac]

It may be more like this Mason-ic offering:





No cinder blocks were harmed in the posting of this video.

So many versions of this one. Which one is King?

[budwom]

I mean, I think the point is that we don't know that.

You can check previous classes in the 247 Composite.

In 2019, the #11 ranked guy was Kahlil Whitney.
In 2018, Simi Shittu.
In 2017, Kevin Knox.
In 2016, Malik Monk
In 2015, Stephen Zimmerman

Too lazy to check further, but that's a 20% hit rate for stud/elite. (I suspect if I checked further, the percentage would dip).

That's why Jalen's ranking matters. (To the extent that anything sports-related matters in the grand scheme of things).

I THINK I know that because people whom I trust and have seen him play consider him an elite guy, but perhaps you're right...my initial point being, if some guy now ranks him 2nd, or 200th, does not change who he is, so I don't worry about rankings at this point.

[Kedsy]

I think all Patrick needs to do this season is be some form of Javin.

Perhaps, but based on the info we have, that's not what he is at all. He should be a way better offensive player than Javin and a way worse defensive player. Stats aside, from the video people have shared he doesn't seem anywhere close to the run/jump athlete Javin is, and appears to have much slower feet on defense.

I'm not saying Patrick can't contribute -- I think he can. But if our primary need from him is defense and rebounding, we may be disappointed.

I know you're heavily driven by stats, and in this case you may be absolutely right. However, I'd like to think that K and his staff have watched a lot of "film" on Tape and have come to a conclusion that he can defend and rebound at an acceptable level...they've passed on other prospects, so evidently they see something they like...and of course Patrick gave them a chance to reconsider when he decommitted, so by taking him back, I suspect (but don't know) that they see more potential in him than you do...I guess we'll see.

I hope you're right (although remember, K and his staff presumably watched a lot of film on Sean Obi as well and presumably came to a similar conclusion; and Obi was a MUCH better rebounder at Rice than Tape was at Columbia). It may be they think Patrick has enough potential that with the proper coaching he can become an all-around contributor. But even then, "an acceptable level" is a lot different than his primary purpose being defense and rebounding. Obviously, it's impossible to know how well low-level Ivy will translate to high-level ACC.

I'm not arguing anything in the absolute; just saying the odds that he's a stud defender and/or rebounder are not very high.

[BD80]

So many versions of this one. Which one is King?

Don't you dare suggest that a Carole-r deserves mention, even with some sweet baby on the side. I'd suggest you spend some time in a Wine house, and the solution will be apparent.

[devildeac]

Don't you dare suggest that a Carole-r deserves mention, even with some sweet baby on the side. I'd suggest you spend some time in a Wine house, and the solution will be apparent.

Shirelles-y you jest. I'll be Frankie with you, this is not one of those Four Seasons in which we should be arguing this.

[scottdude8]

Perhaps, but based on the info we have, that's not what he is at all. He should be a way better offensive player than Javin and a way worse defensive player. Stats aside, from the video people have shared he doesn't seem anywhere close to the run/jump athlete Javin is, and appears to have much slower feet on defense.

I'm not saying Patrick can't contribute -- I think he can. But if our primary need from him is defense and rebounding, we may be disappointed.

Fair enough, although the point I was trying to make was more about the role he was filling (bench big relied on for 10-15 mpg, with offensive contributions being a bonus) rather than a particular skill set. If our lineup has the level of athleticism on the wings we expect with Wendell (almost 4 rpg in his limited minutes and role wasn't half bad at all for a wing) and Jalen, we have guys who can supplement things on the glass. It's more just a matter of having a body in there to relieve a freshman big in Williams, which Tape provides, and less about what he's actually going to do with those minutes. I'd be concerned if we were forced to play a lineup with Hurt or one of the other freshman as the nominal 5 for 10-15 mpg next season; I'm much less concerned about having to do so with Tape.