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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I would point out that this is relying heavily on 247's vague "composite" ranking. Especially since it disagrees with the composite ratings from RSCI's summer site in terms of Johnson. If Johnson is more like the top-5 guy that RSCI had him, that would notably change the dynamic.
    I'm using the 247 composite because they actually update their rankings while RSCI is stale. Once RSCI finally updates, we can use it. I don't believe their methodologies can be *that* different, though, for such a simple task as aggregating rankings. Of note, Jalen is #15 in ESPN, #10 in Rivals, and #8 in 247 (non-composite) so I would expect his RSCI ranking to go down in the update.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Worth noting that Hurt was performing above where Jones was last year based on the advanced metrics. And the biggest thing that was limiting him was something that should inherently improve with age (his strength). I don't think he will have to surprise next year to become a star player.

    My suspicion is that Johnson and Hurt are studs, Roach and Steward are "better than you might expect from a Duke top-20/30", and Moore is better but not "surprisingly" better.
    We don't disagree that much. I think Jalen will be good not great, and I think everything is more likely to add up to bottom half of the top 10 rather than top half. (A top-10 prediction should not be regarded as some insult, obviously).

  2. #42
    In addition to Jeff Borzello's for ESPN, there have been updated rankings taking account of NBA Draft announcements, transfers in and out and recruiting commitments from Gary Parrish (CBS), Rob Dauster (NBC/USA Today), John Rothstein and Jeff Goodman. The consensus of their various rankings, plus Borzello's is:

    1 Gonzaga
    2 Villanova
    3 Baylor
    4 Virginia
    5 Kansas
    6 Iowa
    7 Michigan St.
    8 Duke
    9 Wisconsin
    10 Houston
    11 Creighton
    12 Texas Tech
    13 Kentucky
    14 Tennessee
    15 West Virginia
    16 North Carolina
    17 Arizona St.
    18 Florida St.
    19 Rutgers
    20 UCLA
    21 Ohio St.
    22 Oregon
    23 Florida
    24 Stanford
    25 Texas
    26 Louisville
    27 Indiana
    28 Michigan
    29 LSU
    30 Richmond


    Parrish
    1 Gonzaga
    2 Baylor
    3 Villanova
    4 Virginia
    5 Houston
    6 Iowa
    7 Kansas
    8 Duke
    9 Creighton
    10 Wisconsin
    11 Mich St.
    12 Tenn
    13 West Virginia
    14 Kentucky
    15 N. Carolina
    16 Texas Tech
    17 Ohio St.
    18 Texas
    19 UCLA
    20 Ariz St.
    21 LSU
    22 Oregon
    23 Stan
    24 Rut
    25 Fla St.
    26 Ark.
    27 Florida
    28 Indiana
    29 L.Ville
    30 Mich


    Rothstein
    1 Gonzaga
    2 Villanova
    3 Baylor
    4 Kansas
    5 Iowa
    6 Virginia
    7 Mich St.
    8 Duke
    9 Wisconsin
    10 Ariz St.
    11 Creighton
    12 UCLA
    13 Fla St.
    14 Tenn
    15 Houston
    16 Texas Tech
    17 Kentucky
    18 West Virginia
    19 Florida
    20 Rutgers
    21 Texas
    22 Indiana
    23 North Carolina
    24 Stanford
    25 Oregon
    26 LSU
    27 Ohio St.
    28 Louisville
    29 Miami
    30 Michigan
    31 Providence
    32 Arizona
    33 Richmond
    34 SLU
    35 Oklahoma
    36 U.Conn
    37 Illinois
    38 S. Carolina
    39 Colorado
    40 Okla St.
    41 Purdue
    42 Seton Hall
    43 Maryland
    44 USC
    45 Ark.

    Rob Dauster (NBC)
    1 Villanova
    2 Gonzaga
    3 Baylor
    4 Virginia
    5 Michigan St.
    6 Kansas
    7 Texas Tech
    8 Houston
    9 Kentucky
    10 Duke
    11 Iowa
    12 Tenn
    13 N. Carolina
    14 Florida St.
    15 Wisconsin
    16 UCLA
    17 West Virginia
    18 Crieghton
    19 Ariz St.
    20 Rutgers
    21 Michigan
    22 Louisville
    23 Ohio St.
    24 Richmond
    25 Stanford
    26 Oregon
    27 Texas
    28 Indiana
    29 U.Conn
    30 LSU

    [Goodman
    1 Baylor
    2 Villanova
    3 Gonzaga
    4 Iowa
    5 Wisconsin
    6 Michigan St.
    7 Kansas
    8 Virginia
    9 Ariz St
    10 Creighton
    11 Texas Tech
    12 Duke
    13 Houston
    14 Richmond
    15 Rutgers
    16 Stanford
    17 West Virginia
    18 Alabama
    19 N. Carolina
    20 Tennessee
    21 Florida
    22 Louisville
    23 Kentucky
    24 Florida St
    25 Okla St
    26 Seton Hall
    27 Arkansas
    28 Oregon
    29 UCLA
    30 Indiana
    31 Ohio St
    32 Purdue
    33 Auburn
    34 Texas
    35 Austin Peay
    36 Colorado
    37 Illinois
    38 Arizona
    39 Oklahoma
    40 UConn
    41 SLU
    42 Michigan
    43 LSU
    44 USC
    45 SDSU
    46 Miami
    47 N. Iowa
    48 Marquette
    49 S. Carolina
    50 Ole Miss

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I'm using the 247 composite because they actually update their rankings while RSCI is stale. Once RSCI finally updates, we can use it. I don't believe their methodologies can be *that* different, though, for such a simple task as aggregating rankings. Of note, Jalen is #15 in ESPN, #10 in Rivals, and #8 in 247 (non-composite) so I would expect his RSCI ranking to go down in the update.



    We don't disagree that much. I think Jalen will be good not great, and I think everything is more likely to add up to bottom half of the top 10 rather than top half. (A top-10 prediction should not be regarded as some insult, obviously).
    Yeah, I tend to agree on “somewhere 6-10” seems a reasonable guess. And I would not consider any top-10 an insult.

    One thing I do like - in theory at least - about next year’s group is that we should have more playmaking versatility. This year we had basically one guy who could reliably create. Granted, that one guy played exceedingly well, and we had a post scorer who took pressure off others. But teams started to figure out how to gameplan us as the season went on and our limitations started to show on both ends. Next year we should have 3-4 such guys. That should give us more ways to adapt as the season progresses. Think of it like a starting pitcher. If he has just two reliable pitches, he can get through the lineup once or twice. But by the third time through the order he needs that third pitch to keep folks off balance. This year we might have found that third pitch accidentally if JRob’s emergence was not a fluke. Next year we have a chance to throw different looks at teams, which hopefully makes us harder to gameplan against.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    That's too far in the other direction, assuming "rebuilding" means outside the top 20. According to kenpom ($$$), we haven't been outside the top 20 in a quarter century. Also, "just not enough experience" is slightly imprecise to me since we've had really good, really young teams before. It's more that, like last year's freshmen class, they're not quite the high-end freshmen we'd been landing before and on paper don't project to be as immediately impactful. If this roster is largely still around for the 2021-22 season, we could really be something then if we can combine them with a stud or two from the high school class of 2021.
    Not outside the top 20 but probably bouncing around 10-15. That said, a lot depends on the development Moore and Hurt- but this will not be a usual summer for them and the rest of the team. I don’t see either as dominant and so one of the Freshman has to be a consistent 15-19ppg scorer in ACC play. I agree this could be an excellent team in a 21-22. We shall see.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    The Worldwide Leader in What Do We Do Now finally weighs in.

    ESPN/Jeff Borzello Top 25

    1. Villanova
    2. Creighton
    3. Gonzaga
    4. Baylor
    5. Kentucky
    6. Duke
    7. Iowa
    8. Virginia
    9. Michigan State
    10. Kansas
    11. North Carolina
    22. Florida State
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    April 20 is a ridiculously early time for ESPN/Jeff Borzello's UPDATED ranking, but life in Bristol is boring, and here we are.

    1. Villanova
    2. Gonzaga
    3. Baylor
    4. Virginia
    5. Iowa
    6. Kansas
    7. Duke
    8. Michigan State
    9. Wisconsin
    10. Arizona State
    16. North Carolina
    22. Florida State

    Next in Line: Louisville

    Bobby Hurley and Arizona State rise from "next in line" to #10. Creighton and Kentucky each dropped 10 places. Regarding UNC's fall from #11 to #16: "I may have been a little aggressive with my ranking of the Tar Heels in March, slotting them just outside the top 10. Now, I do love this team's talent -- but I question how it's all going to come together."
    One month of isolation later (May 20), and Jeff Borzello is rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic. Look! A new number one!

    ESPN/Jeff Borzello Top 25

    1. Gonzaga
    2. Villanova
    3. Baylor
    4. Virginia
    5. Iowa
    6. Kansas
    7. Wisconsin
    8. Duke
    9. Texas Tech
    10. Michigan State
    14. North Carolina
    24. Florida State

    Still next in line: Louisville

    The Hurley honeymoon is over, as Arizona State drops to #15. Kentucky moved up to #13, but Borzello teases a return to the Top 5 if the NCAA gets enough money to give Olivier Sarr that waiver. "Times have changed from those nasty days when you had to ship cash in an envelope," said NCAA president Mark Emmert. "I take Bitcoin, and I'm on Venmo."

    Kentucky's rise in the next ranking should knock uncertain Duke another spot down to #9, far behind sure thing Kansas. So, a reason for us all to live until June 20.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    One month of isolation later (May 20), and Jeff Borzello is rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic. Look! A new number one!

    ESPN/Jeff Borzello Top 25

    1. Gonzaga
    2. Villanova
    3. Baylor
    4. Virginia
    5. Iowa
    6. Kansas
    7. Wisconsin
    8. Duke
    9. Texas Tech
    10. Michigan State
    14. North Carolina
    24. Florida State

    Still next in line: Louisville

    The Hurley honeymoon is over, as Arizona State drops to #15. Kentucky moved up to #13, but Borzello teases a return to the Top 5 if the NCAA gets enough money to give Olivier Sarr that waiver. "Times have changed from those nasty days when you had to ship cash in an envelope," said NCAA president Mark Emmert. "I take Bitcoin, and I'm on Venmo."

    Kentucky's rise in the next ranking should knock uncertain Duke another spot down to #9, far behind sure thing Kansas. So, a reason for us all to live until June 20.
    Link for bolded?

    Minor (major?) quibble; not with you, of course, but with Borzello as he has COVID nowhere in his rankings.





    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    I suspect the quote is vintage brevity stuff, and therefore no link is likely to exist. Just a guess, though.

  8. #48
    With the picture for next season becoming more clear, I have Duke at #5 heading into next season. Honestly, I prefer that ranking rather than starting at #1.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilStop View Post
    With the picture for next season becoming more clear, I have Duke at #5 heading into next season. Honestly, I prefer that ranking rather than starting at #1.
    A lot of people like to fly just under the radar. I fondly recall being #1 wire to wire in '92.

    -jk

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