The 1991 Road to Final Four - come along for a retrotour!

[House P]

Midwest

Ohio State vs Towson State
Georgia Tech vs DePaul
Texas vs St. Peter’s
St. John’s vs N. Illinois
LSU vs Connecticut
Nebraska vs Xavier
Iowa vs E. Tennessee State
Duke vs NE Louisiana (UL-Monroe)

Several Big East teams in this region. That is an amazingly strong conference that should be around for many decades in the future.

I just received a strange phone call from some high school senior name Kenny Pomeroy. Kenny told me that he is working on a system to rate college basketball teams. He said that he probably won't make his ratings publicly available for another 15 years or so, but if I wanted to get a sense of what his ratings might look like for the 1991 season, I should check out the Simple Rating System (SRS) results for 1991 which are fairly close to his ratings.

Here are the SRS ratings for Duke's region*

Seed
Team
SRS
SRS Rank

1
Ohio State
21.15
9

2
Duke
24.90
4

3
Nebraska
18.47
13

4
St. John's (NY)
14.19
29

5
Texas
14.82
26

6
Louisiana State
17.83
15

7
Iowa
10.75
47

8
Georgia Tech
16.27
20

9
DePaul
12.89
33

10
East Tennessee State
11.65
44

11
Connecticut
16.56
18

12
Saint Peter's
6.53
86

13
Northern Illinois
7.54
74

14
Xavier
4.50
102

15
Louisiana-Monroe
0.76
130

16
Towson
-3.48
177

Based on SRS ratings, it appears that Duke ended up with a somewhat favorable bracket. The SRS ratings say that Ohio State is the weakest 1 seed, so I like Duke's chances should they somehow meet OSU in the Elite 8. Plus, while Coach K has struggled in the Final 4, his teams never lose in the Elite 8.

Elsewhere in the bracket, Nebraska seems about average for a 3 seed and they will face a tough match-up in the 2nd round with the winner of the 6/11 game between LSU and Connecticut, both of whom are under-seeded top 18 SRS teams.

Georgia Tech, #20 in the SRS, also appears to be under-seeded as an 8 seed.

If you apply the Log5 method (something else Kenny told me about, but I don't claim to understand) to the SRS ratings, you get the following estimate of each team's chances of winning the region.

Seed
Team
Chance of Winning Region

2
Duke
47.2%

1
Ohio State
24.3%

3
Nebraska
8.4%

6
Louisiana State
4.4%

5
Texas
4.0%

8
Georgia Tech
3.8%

4
St. John's (NY)
3.1%

11
Connecticut
2.7%

9
DePaul
0.9%

10
East Tennessee State
0.6%

7
Iowa
0.4%

13
Northern Illinois
0.1%

12
Saint Peter's
0.1%

14
Xavier
0.0%

15
Louisiana-Monroe
0.0%

16
Towson
0.0%

By the way, before we hung up, I told young Kenny Pomeroy that he might consider switching to a snappy two syllable moniker if he ever wants to gain widespread recognition.



*Note from 2020: The SRS ratings in the chart are final ratings which include tournament performance. As such, it is likely that Duke's pre-tourney SRS rating was a couple points lower and may or may not have been better than Ohio State's. Either way, OSU was probably the weakest 1 seed as the other 1 seeds finished in the top 3 of the SRS.

[dukelifer]

I just received a strange phone call from some high school senior name Kenny Pomeroy. Kenny told me that he is working on a system to rate college basketball teams. He said that he probably won't make his ratings publicly available for another 15 years or so, but if I wanted to get a sense of what his ratings might look like for the 1991 season, I should check out the Simple Rating System (SRS) results for 1991 which are fairly close to his ratings.

Here are the SRS ratings for Duke's region*

Seed
Team
SRS
SRS Rank

1
Ohio State
21.15
9

2
Duke
24.90
4

3
Nebraska
18.47
13

4
St. John's (NY)
14.19
29

5
Texas
14.82
26

6
Louisiana State
17.83
15

7
Iowa
10.75
47

8
Georgia Tech
16.27
20

9
DePaul
12.89
33

10
East Tennessee State
11.65
44

11
Connecticut
16.56
18

12
Saint Peter's
6.53
86

13
Northern Illinois
7.54
74

14
Xavier
4.50
102

15
Louisiana-Monroe
0.76
130

16
Towson
-3.48
177

Based on SRS ratings, it appears that Duke ended up with a somewhat favorable bracket. The SRS ratings say that Ohio State is the weakest 1 seed, so I like Duke's chances should they somehow meet OSU in the Elite 8. Plus, while Coach K has struggled in the Final 4, his teams never lose in the Elite 8.

Elsewhere in the bracket, Nebraska seems about average for a 3 seed and they will face a tough match-up in the 2nd round with the winner of the 6/11 game between LSU and Connecticut, both of whom are under-seeded top 18 SRS teams.

Georgia Tech, #20 in the SRS, also appears to be under-seeded as an 8 seed.

If you apply the Log5 method (something else Kenny told me about, but I don't claim to understand) to the SRS ratings, you get the following estimate of each team's chances of winning the region.

Seed
Team
Chance of Winning Region

2
Duke
47.2%

1
Ohio State
24.3%

3
Nebraska
8.4%

6
Louisiana State
4.4%

5
Texas
4.0%

8
Georgia Tech
3.8%

4
St. John's (NY)
3.1%

11
Connecticut
2.7%

9
DePaul
0.9%

10
East Tennessee State
0.6%

7
Iowa
0.4%

13
Northern Illinois
0.1%

12
Saint Peter's
0.1%

14
Xavier
0.0%

15
Louisiana-Monroe
0.0%

16
Towson
0.0%

By the way, before we hung up, I told young Kenny Pomeroy that he might consider switching to a snappy two syllable moniker if he ever wants to gain widespread recognition.



*Note from 2020: The SRS ratings in the chart are final ratings which include tournament performance. As such, it is likely that Duke's pre-tourney SRS rating was a couple points lower and may or may not have been better than Ohio State's. Either way, OSU was probably the weakest 1 seed as the other 1 seeds finished in the top 3 of the SRS.

My guess is that St Johns beats them and St Johns has been a nemesis for Duke in the past. They always seem to have someone that goes off against Duke. That Sealy kid is really good.

[MarkD83]

My guess is that St Johns beats them and St Johns has been a nemesis for Duke in the past. They always seem to have someone that goes off against Duke. That Sealy kid is really good.

You mean that if Duke would play St. John's they may give Duke the "Boot"!!!!

[Troublemaker]

Good chance that if he wins a National Championship- he is going to get lured to coach in the NBA. Look at what happened to Larry Brown after he won his.

What's your damage, dukelifer? It's a longstanding rule on this BBS that we don't start rumors, so can we please just focus on the bracket? Hopefully your little Scud missile attack doesn't derail this thread into endless speculation about Coach K's future.

As for who wins the title this year. Like, duh. UNLV.

[House P]

My guess is that St Johns beats them and St Johns has been a nemesis for Duke in the past. They always seem to have someone that goes off against Duke. That Sealy kid is really good.

I am really worried about LSU and Shaquille O'Neal. We all know that the single most important player in basketball is, and always will be, a dominant back-to-the basket big man. Duke had some luck making Shaq step out and guard Laettner on the perimeter in the first matchup this year*, but I don't see this as an effective strategy in the future.



*One-two-three-four, Shaq can't play this game no more!

[dukelifer]

What's your damage, dukelifer? It's a longstanding rule on this BBS that we don't start rumors, so can we please just focus on the bracket? Hopefully your little Scud missile attack doesn't derail this thread into endless speculation about Coach K's future.

As for who wins the title this year. Like, duh. UNLV.

I am not saying he is going- but the NBA pays their coaches a ton. Can't imagine the college game ever matching the NBA in coaches salaries.

[dukelifer]

I am really worried about LSU and Shaquille O'Neal. We all know that the single most important player in basketball is, and always will be, a dominant back-to-the basket big man. Duke had some luck making Shaq step out and guard Laettner on the perimeter in the first matchup this year*, but I don't see this as an effective strategy in the future.



*One-two-three-four, Shaq can't play this game no more!

Shaq has been overhyped- Sure he has averaged 28 a game this season but I doubt he will be able to do much at the next level. He is pretty limited offensively and a horrible FT shooter. I predict that the someday the NBA will be all about three point shooting.

[Truth&Justise]

So where does UNLV rank on the all-time great list? They're six wins away from 36-0 and repeating as national champs--and no one looks close to being able to stop them. 1975 & 1976 Indiana is a good place to start the comparison, but UNLV is actually completing the job of being back-to-back champions. IMO even though last year's team was "only" 35-5, winning two titles is more impressive than a 32-0 title in 1976 paired with 32-1 season that ended in the Elite Eight in 1975. Gotta finish the job!

So that leaves Wooden's UCLA teams, Bill Russell's back-to-back champs at USF, and those Kentucky and Oklahoma State teams from the 1940s. But it is so much harder to win a title these days, with the 64-team tournament. And I'd love to see any of those other teams keep up with athletes like Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon. Good luck!

So I gotta say, UNLV going undefeated as the reigning champs--with that huge target on their backs--makes them the best college team of all time.

[dukelifer]

So where does UNLV rank on the all-time great list? They're six wins away from 36-0 and repeating as national champs--and no one looks close to being able to stop them. 1975 & 1976 Indiana is a good place to start the comparison, but UNLV is actually completing the job of being back-to-back champions. IMO even though last year's team was "only" 35-5, winning two titles is more impressive than a 32-0 title in 1976 paired with 32-1 season that ended in the Elite Eight in 1975. Gotta finish the job!

So that leaves Wooden's UCLA teams, Bill Russell's back-to-back champs at USF, and those Kentucky and Oklahoma State teams from the 1940s. But it is so much harder to win a title these days, with the 64-team tournament. And I'd love to see any of those other teams keep up with athletes like Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon. Good luck!

So I gotta say, UNLV going undefeated as the reigning champs--with that huge target on their backs--makes them the best college team of all time.

I would have to rank it right up there. The tourney is different than when Wooden won his. It is hard to see anyone beating them. Arkansas gave them a really good game for a half at home- and the UNLV just blew them out of the gym. Augmon has gotten so much better. They are basically a team of pros. The crazy thing is- if Duke were to beat UNLV there is a chance they would play UNC for the championship- I don't even want to think about that. Someone needs to knock them out.

[Thurber Whyte]

I am upset that Carolina got put in the East Regional while we got shipped off to the Midwest. Yeah, I know that they beat us handily in the ACC Tournament final, but we beat them twice in the regular season, including at the Dean Dome. I was at all three games! Head to head, we are the better team and we finished first in the conference regular season standings. How could the Tournament Committee put Carolina in our natural region ahead of us?! It seems like they do stuff like this every year!

As usual, the East Regional Final is at the Meadowlands this year. That is our building! We are 11-1 in that building. Every time we have advanced to the Final Four in the Coach K Era, it has been from that building, including our huge wins against Temple and Georgetown, plus the buzzer beater against UConn. Our only loss was that regular season game in 1989 against Arizona in front of former President Nixon where we had a chance to send the game into overtime, but Christian Laettner missed those free throws. He is a pretty good player, but, if he is ever in a similar situation, I hope he does not choke like that again! I absolutely hate that, if both teams advance to the Sweet Sixteen as I expect, Carolina would be in our building depriving us of its positive energy. I doubt the Metrodome can have the same magic for us. Besides, playing a basketball game in a domed football stadium is silly. Although, it has to be said, for all the good fortune we have had at the Meadowlands, it has yet to carry over to the Final Four.

[accfanfrom1970]

As a fan from the 70s when my sister attended Duke. 1991 was relief, validation and pure joy watching Hurley and the gang take it all. As a NJ guy, watching Spanarkel to Hurley made us all proud. Love 1991.

[dukelifer]

I am upset that Carolina got put in the East Regional while we got shipped off to the Midwest. Yeah, I know that they beat us handily in the ACC Tournament final, but we beat them twice in the regular season, including at the Dean Dome. I was at all three games! Head to head, we are the better team and we finished first in the conference regular season standings. How could the Tournament Committee put Carolina in our natural region ahead of us?! It seems like they do stuff like this every year!

As usual, the East Regional Final is at the Meadowlands this year. That is our building! We are 11-1 in that building. Every time we have advanced to the Final Four in the Coach K Era, it has been from that building, including our huge wins against Temple and Georgetown, plus the buzzer beater against UConn. Our only loss was that regular season game in 1989 against Arizona in front of former President Nixon where we had a chance to send the game into overtime, but Christian Laettner missed those free throws. He is a pretty good player, but, if he is ever in a similar situation, I hope he does not choke like that again! I absolutely hate that, if both teams advance to the Sweet Sixteen as I expect, Carolina would be in our building depriving us of its positive energy. I doubt the Metrodome can have the same magic for us. Besides, playing a basketball game in a domed football stadium is silly. Although, it has to be said, for all the good fortune we have had at the Meadowlands, it has yet to carry over to the Final Four.

Maybe we will play a Big East team - that seems to get us to a FF

[roywhite]

Let's look ahead to the second round.

Duke is a #2 seed, no way does a Coach K team lose to the #15 seed in the first round.

[-jk]

C'mon folks, play along and maintain the timeline! No spoilers!

Jim's Part II just dropped.

-jk

[House P]

C'mon folks, play along and maintain the timeline! No spoilers!

Jim's Part II just dropped.

-jk

Can you give us a general timeline for Jim's articles? I other words, is he going to write a separate article for each game?

It looks like 5 of the 6 Duke games from the 91 tournament are available online. I would love to watch and then discuss each game along with Jim's articles.

[Truth&Justise]

So I found a neat pattern emerging--about every 17 years, you get a repeat champion with an undefeated season:

1956 San Francisco -- Back-to-back champion, 29-0

1973 UCLA -- Back-to-back-champion (part of 7 straight!), 30-0

1991 UNLV -- Likely back-to-back champion, 36-0

So who will it be in 17 years???

I can imagine it now. The year is 2008. Duke is fresh off its first title under Head Coach Tommy Amaker. Led by Johnny Dawkins Jr., Mike Gminski Jr., and Dick Groat's grandson (couldn't find any info, but he has a grand nephew named Brooks Koepka, so let's go with him), the undefeated Blue Devils dazzle the crowd in the Astrodome--which includes President George Bush Jr.

From the sidelines, Jim Valvano and Dick Vitale compare Duke to legendary teams like UNLV and UCLA, while Bulls GM Mike Krzyzewski gloats a little over Dean Smith -- asking him if it's FINALLY time to retire and hand the program over to Larry Brown.

[-jk]

Can you give us a general timeline for Jim's articles? I other words, is he going to write a separate article for each game?

It looks like 5 of the 6 Duke games from the 91 tournament are available online. I would love to watch and then discuss each game along with Jim's articles.

I think he's following the calendar. Just keep an eye on the front page.

-jk

[jimsumner]

I think he's following the calendar. Just keep an eye on the front page.

-jk

Yes, one-game, one article.

[MarkD83]

Can you give us a general timeline for Jim's articles? I other words, is he going to write a separate article for each game?

It looks like 5 of the 6 Duke games from the 91 tournament are available online. I would love to watch and then discuss each game along with Jim's articles.

As part of my role what I will do is add a post 1 day before each game with some info / stats about Duke's opponent. On game day in the evening I will then add some play by play / boxscore for the games which we can use for an "in-game" / post game / MOTM discussion.

I will coordinate with Jim's front page articles. My tentative schedule would be...

Wed. 3/18 - 1st round opponent info
Thurs 3/19 - box score / play by play 1st round
Fri 3/20 - 2nd round opponent info
Sat 3/21 - box score / play by play 2nd round

Wed. 3/25 - 3rd round opponent info
Thurs 3/26 - boxscore / play by play 3rd round
Fri 3/27 - Regional final opponent info
Sat 3/28 - box score / play by play regional final

Then the final four would be Saturday and Monday.

On Friday 3/20; Sunday 3/21; Friday 3/27 and Sunday 3/29 I will add a post with updated brackets to discuss.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This thread is one of the better things in my life these days. Thanks, friends.