I think Jackson is a pretty good comp for Stanley in terms of draft position (not the same kind of player obviously). I remember Frank was projected anywhere from the beginning to the end the second round at the time he announced his decision to leave. Even though that was just three years ago, it was a little less common then for guys to leave if they weren't projected first round picks. We knew he would look great at the combine and get a bump, and also that he had great physical tools so someone would likely draft him on potential.
Stanley's current draft projections aren't quite as high, but he likely feels that he'll either go in the second round or pick up a contract as an undrafted player. Jackson could have returned and been a POY candidate on the Bagley/Carter team. But he's done well for himself, after some injuries he's gotten into the rotation with the Pelicans and should be in line for a decent contract once his rookie deal expires. Stanley could choose to go the same path, or he could return and possibly jump into the first round or even the lottery with a big season. Gary Trent was roughly in the same boat as well. Man, having him on last year's team would have been big.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Of course a team would take Cassius Stanley in the second round (if he didn’t get picked in the first). But what does that really mean? Are players supposed to leave college if they think they’ll at least get picked in the second round?
By the way, I think Cassius has shown considerably more NBA potential than Frank Jackson did during his time at Duke, regardless of what their respective stats were.
Plus, based on the professional look of the second tweet, I have to think that Duke Athletics was involved. The tweets together certainly hinted at Stanley‘a return and weren’t just off-the-cuff (like a post-game interview immediately after a tournament loss). They flipped me from assuming he’s going to assuming he’s staying. Of course, he could change his mind.
Didn’t Wendell Moore also even more explicitly already say by social media that he’s returning? Again, someone could change his mind, but are we even really waiting for an announcement from him?
To me, Hurt is the biggest unknown at this point.
That would be my take if there were zero tweets on the subject. But I'm on board with what many are saying about how he wouldn't be doing these teases if he didn't know he was going to return. I've moved from 50/50 to 90/10 stay. That said, as always, there's really no harm in lowered expectations for those that disagree.
Can you link this professional-looking tweet? I can't find it. Thanks.
Scott Rich on the front page
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I am sure Duke took the gorgeous photo of Cassius and I bet the Duke media team provides photos to the players to use on their social media feeds. That picture was just one Cassius had access to. It did not look specially prepared to imply something about his decision (unless I missed something in it). The way I see that one, it is just a cool picture, not a hidden message.
the front court looks very heavy .. 8 players .. can't see all of the following being on the team next year.
M Hurt
J Baker
J Brakefield
H Coleman
M Williams
W Moore
P Tape
J Johnson
I think Hurt turns pro and gets picked up in R2. G League isn't a bad way to develop. Being a 2nd round pick isn't a black mark.
That doesn't appear to be particularly crowded to me. Coleman, in my mind, is least likely to get playing time. This is based on his recruiting ranking. Guys that come in ranked 40th or lower do not often see the floor as a freshman. The same could be said of Brakefield to a certain degree. Moore and to a lesser extent Baker could see minutes at the off guard position, especially if Cassius Stanley goes pro. That leaves Johnson, Hurt, and a combination of Williams and Tape to play the majority of the minutes in the frontcourt with Moore and Baker on the wings with Brakefield getting a few minutes here and there.
Agreed. Also, given the flexibility, I think there are players who will exclusively play the 5, players who will exclusively play the 4, and a combination of both.
5 Only
-Tapé
-Williams
4 Only
-Johnson
-Hurt (unless he bulks up with 15+ lbs in the offseason)
-Moore (he'll play a lot of 3, but he's not playing the 5)
-Baker (ditto)
4/5 Combo
-Brakefield
-Coleman
The 4/5 Combo guys are, to me, the players most likely to have limited minutes/redshirt/Joey Baker-style red shirt next year.
At the 5, if it's weak, you'd hope Johnson and/or Hurt could maybe play a few minutes there.
To me, there are a lot of players at the 4, and it'll be really interesting to see what comes of the Hurt vs Johnson battle.
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
I tend to agree to a point, but what do rankings really tell us about a players? We all thought that Stanley, as a late recruit, would be a reserve guard this year and no one expected this type of contribution to Duke this year.
Just to compare.
Stanley was ranked:
Rivals: 39
247: 37
ESPN: 32
Brakefield is ranked:
Rivals: 38
247: 37
ESPN: 24
Not saying that Brakefield will have a similar type impact in the 2020-2021 team, but he is ranked about the same. If you take into account some of both Stanley and Brakefield's ranking history, they both were more highly ranked as younger players and as time went on, other players passed them in the rankings.
Coleman on the other hand.
Rivals: 51
247:44
ESPN: 50
Notable players ranked in the same range from 2019 were: Zeke Nnaja (AZ), Kofi Cockburn (Ill), Balsa Koprivica (FSU), Casey Morell (VA), DJ Jefferies (Memphis). All of those players panned out pretty well for their teams.
I'm in no way suggesting that Coleman or Brakefield will or won't have an impact on next year's team.
The longer a thread goes, the more likely it is to get into a minutes/depth discussion
I think we need to wait on the decisions of Hurt, Stanley, and Moore (?) before making our educated guesses about who plays where next season. We also need to see if the NCAA opens up the one-time, no-sit transfer this summer to see if that changes things further.
--Jason "while I would love love love for Duke to have 12 scholarship players playing next season, I think that is fairly unlikely" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Cassius Stanley is the only Duke player in the 21st Century rated 30+ who played 400+ minutes in a season. Only five or six such players even played 200+ minutes in a season. While I guess that shows anything is possible, I wouldn't count on Jaemyn Brakefield having anything close to a Cassius-like impact.
Also, while it's true Cassius and Jaemyn were both ranked #33 (RSCI) out of high school, for meaningful analysis you have to look at competition for a rotation spot. Cassius came in competing against the following for a rotation spot on the wing:
Alex O'Connell (Jr, ranked #69 out of high school; 8 career starts coming into the season)
Jack White (Sr, unranked out of high school; 3 career starts)
Wendell Moore (Fr, ranked #25)
Joey Baker (So, ranked #37 out of high school; 0 career starts)
Jordan Goldwire (Jr, unranked out of high school; 0 career starts)
Not a complete surprise that the #33 recruit could carve out a role against a group with only one player ranked better than him out of high school (and not much better than him, at that), with a combined 11 career starts.
By contrast, Jaemyn will probably have to compete against the following for a PF spot:
Jalen Johnson (Fr, ranked #4)
Matthew Hurt (So, ranked #12 out of high school; 22 career starts)
Wendell Moore (So, ranked #25 out of high school; 11 career starts)
Joey Baker (So, ranked #37 out of high school; 3 career starts)
That's three guys ranked better (and one close) with 36 combined career starts, and for one position (PF) rather than the two wing positions for which Cassius was best suited.
If Jaemyn is able to slide to the wing (probably a big if), he'll compete with:
Cassius Stanley (maybe) (So, ranked #33 out of high school, 29 career starts)
Wendell Moore (So, ranked #25 out of high school; 11 career starts)
Joey Baker (So, ranked #37 out of high school; 3 career starts)
Jordan Goldwire (Sr, unranked out of high school, 15 career starts)
DJ Steward (Fr, ranked #26)
Three guys ranked better (or equal), with 58 combined career starts.
In other words, the quality of competition will be much, much higher for Jaemyn than it was for Cassius. I acknowledge that you're not "saying" it, but you are suggesting it. And despite their identical RSCI ranking, it's simply not valid to suggest that Cassius's opportunity and success with translate in any meaningful way to Jaemyn.