This Week in the ACC - 3/2-3/8

[JasonEvans]

One of UVA and NET is trolling the other, but its not clear which one.

All these really tight games are not good for your PPP efficiency, thus UVA looks pretty awful in the advanced metrics. While it is possible they are simply a team that has figured out how to win the close ones, it is also possible the Cavs just aren't that good a team and it will catch up to them in the ACC or NCAA tourneys.

Personally, I would not want to bet on either... I simply have no idea.

[OldPhiKap]

All these really tight games are not good for your PPP efficiency, thus UVA looks pretty awful in the advanced metrics. While it is possible they are simply a team that has figured out how to win the close ones, it is also possible the Cavs just aren't that good a team and it will catch up to them in the ACC or NCAA tourneys.

Personally, I would not want to bet on either... I simply have no idea.

How about for teams that make a habit of starting painfully slow, falling uncomfortably behind, and then either rallying for the win or battling to make it a one-possession game at the end?

Asking, y'know, for a friend and all.

[jv001]

Virginia's 7 game winning streak and Ken-Pom ratiing:

Notre Dame...#61 KP 50-49 at home.
Uncheats...#83 KP 64-62 away (Robinson didn't play for the cheats)
BC...#175 KP 78-65 home.
Pitt...#113 KP 59-56 away
VT...#97 KP 56-53 away
Duke...#6 KP 52-50 home
Miami...#105 KP 46-44 away

Take out the BC(175) game at home and their wins have been by: 1,2,3,3,2,2 for a total of 15 points in those 6 games. That's an average of 2.5 points per game or one possession. Their best wins are Arizona State #58 neutral court, Duke at home, FSU at home, and Cuse#54 at home. They have been very lucky to come away with that many close wins. K-Pom has the luck factor at +.102 and 8. I'm not that educated on kpom to know what the 8 means. Could it be the 8th luckiest team in division one?
With the ACC having a down year that's not helped either.

It looks like a combination of their defense and their style of play puts pressure on their opponents. Players and coaches know every possession counts so much when you play them and that puts added pressure on the opponent, especially if you're playing them in John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavs are rated #45 in Kpom and may not be fun to watch but their style keeps them in games. I guess #45 is about right when looking at the overall prediction of how they will perform when they play to teams.

GoDuke!

Maybe the NCAA needs to make them shoot the ball in 15 seconds. Like the NCAA had to wipe out Dean's four corner offense.

[roywhite]

Virginia's 7 game winning streak and Ken-Pom ratiing:

Notre Dame...#61 KP 50-49 at home.
Uncheats...#83 KP 64-62 away (Robinson didn't play for the cheats)
BC...#175 KP 78-65 home.
Pitt...#113 KP 59-56 away
VT...#97 KP 56-53 away
Duke...#6 KP 52-50 home
Miami...#105 KP 46-44 away

Take out the BC(175) game at home and their wins have been by: 1,2,3,3,2,2 for a total of 15 points in those 6 games. That's an average of 2.5 points per game or one possession. Their best wins are Arizona State #58 neutral court, Duke at home, FSU at home, and Cuse#54 at home. They have been very lucky to come away with that many close wins. K-Pom has the luck factor at +.102 and 8. I'm not that educated on kpom to know what the 8 means. Could it be the 8th luckiest team in division one?
With the ACC having a down year that's not helped either.

It looks like a combination of their defense and their style of play puts pressure on their opponents. Players and coaches know every possession counts so much when you play them and that puts added pressure on the opponent, especially if you're playing them in John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavs are rated #45 in Kpom and may not be fun to watch but their style keeps them in games. I guess #45 is about right when looking at the overall prediction of how they will perform when they play to teams.

GoDuke!

Maybe the NCAA needs to make them shoot the ball in 15 seconds. Like the NCAA had to wipe out Dean's four corner offense.

Good research and comments.

Gotta believe that the 6-34 shooting of Duke players other than Tre Jones and Vernon Carey in our loss reflects some frustration by those players. It was a defensive style and game tempo they hadn't seen before. I'm wondering if we might feel a bit more comfortable and effective if we meet the Cavs again, in the ACC Tournament or beyond?

[jv001]

Good research and comments.

Gotta believe that the 6-34 shooting of Duke players other than Tre Jones and Vernon Carey in our loss reflects some frustration by those players. It was a defensive style and game tempo they hadn't seen before. I'm wondering if we might feel a bit more comfortable and effective if we meet the Cavs again, in the ACC Tournament or beyond?

Thanks for the kind words. I believe we beat the Cavs on a neutral court. All though Greensboro has many cheat fans that I'm sure would root against us. Normally I wouldn't worry about where Duke plays their games, but this team has been Jekyll and Hyde in home and away games.

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

That was heartbreaking (for me). ND had a 13 point lead with 10 minutes left. Had FSU taken that loss, we would have had a legit shot at finishing the season with a 4-way tie atop the standings. Technically it is still possible, but it would require FSU losing to BC at home (on top of UVA beating Louisville and us beating the CHeats).

Good for FSU. I've always respected Leonard Hamilton and feel his teams always overachieve. Their style isn't sexy, but it's very effective. Hamilton is one of the few coaches who consistently gets the most out of his players.

Duke and Louisville could have won the ACC, but they didn't seize the opportunity (and Duke had one of the easiest schedules in the ACC).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Good for FSU. I've always respected Leonard Hamilton and feel his teams always overachieve. Their style isn't sexy, but it's very effective. Hamilton is one of the few coaches who consistently gets the most out of his players.

Duke and Louisville could have won the ACC, but they didn't seize the opportunity (and Duke had one of the easiest schedules in the ACC).

Is this some sort of reverse jinx? I don't see congratulating FSU yet. It's been a weird season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Is this some sort of reverse jinx? I don't see congratulating FSU yet. It's been a weird season.

Nope. Just happy for them this season, regardless of whether they win or not. I'm a fan of both Hamilton and Bennett and see them as likable coaches who run great programs.

Don't get me wrong, I'm Duke through and through, but I don't think that discounts my ability to appreciate other non-UNC ACC teams.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Nope. Just happy for them this season, regardless of whether they win or not. I'm a fan of both Hamilton and Bennett and see them as likable coaches who run great programs.

Don't get me wrong, I'm Duke through and through, but I don't think that discounts my ability to appreciate other non-UNC ACC teams.

I just mean I don't take it as a given that they beat BC.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I just mean I don't take it as a given that they beat BC.

At home? Against a #175 ranked team? Given? Nope. >98% odds? I'd say so.

[jhmoss1812]

Virginia's 7 game winning streak and Ken-Pom ratiing:

Notre Dame...#61 KP 50-49 at home.
Uncheats...#83 KP 64-62 away (Robinson didn't play for the cheats)
BC...#175 KP 78-65 home.
Pitt...#113 KP 59-56 away
VT...#97 KP 56-53 away
Duke...#6 KP 52-50 home
Miami...#105 KP 46-44 away

Take out the BC(175) game at home and their wins have been by: 1,2,3,3,2,2 for a total of 15 points in those 6 games. That's an average of 2.5 points per game or one possession. Their best wins are Arizona State #58 neutral court, Duke at home, FSU at home, and Cuse#54 at home. They have been very lucky to come away with that many close wins. K-Pom has the luck factor at +.102 and 8. I'm not that educated on kpom to know what the 8 means. Could it be the 8th luckiest team in division one?
With the ACC having a down year that's not helped either.

It looks like a combination of their defense and their style of play puts pressure on their opponents. Players and coaches know every possession counts so much when you play them and that puts added pressure on the opponent, especially if you're playing them in John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavs are rated #45 in Kpom and may not be fun to watch but their style keeps them in games. I guess #45 is about right when looking at the overall prediction of how they will perform when they play to teams.

GoDuke!

Maybe the NCAA needs to make them shoot the ball in 15 seconds. Like the NCAA had to wipe out Dean's four corner offense.

I think most reasonable UVA fans (which I consider myself to be) know that we're not as good as our record might indicate. We're Schrodinger's Cavs - both good and bad at the same time. It seems like every game we play, whether it's against a top 10 team or a top 150 team, is going to come down to the wire. Our defense and pace are good enough to keep us in every game. Our offense and pace are bad enough to keep our opponents in every game. We have made a lot of winning plays at the end of ballgames though. Yes, we have been lucky but we also haven't shot ourselves in the foot at crunch time either. For me personally, I am just happy that we are now a tourney lock after how the season started. We are not a program built to handle multiple early departures so it's really hard to be disappointed with this season, even if it may be fool's gold.

[jv001]

I think most reasonable UVA fans (which I consider myself to be) know that we're not as good as our record might indicate. We're Schrodinger's Cavs - both good and bad at the same time. It seems like every game we play, whether it's against a top 10 team or a top 150 team, is going to come down to the wire. Our defense and pace are good enough to keep us in every game. Our offense and pace are bad enough to keep our opponents in every game. We have made a lot of winning plays at the end of ballgames though. Yes, we have been lucky but we also haven't shot ourselves in the foot at crunch time either. For me personally, I am just happy that we are now a tourney lock after how the season started. We are not a program built to handle multiple early departures so it's really hard to be disappointed with this season, even if it may be fool's gold.

Oh, you should be very proud of your Cavs as they have turned their season around well enough to factor into the ACC regular season crown. Bennett may have done is best coaching this season and will probably be considered for ACC coach of the year. You make a good point regarding the pace of play keeping both teams in the game. My post was maybe answering Elliotthoos post about the difference in the rankings of some of the services.

GoDuke!

[W&LHoo]

Maybe the NCAA needs to make them shoot the ball in 15 seconds. Like the NCAA had to wipe out Dean's four corner offense.

As a Hoos fan, I'm often surprised at this view. People thought the shortened shot clock that has already happened would hurt UVA.

It's my view that the defensive benefit would more than offset any harm a shorter shot clock would do to UVA's offense. Bennett's philosophy is absolutely not to use all of the time the shot clock allows on offense. If one of our kids gets a genuinely good look one second in, they're supposed to take that shot. Rather, it's a philosophy that says that given our defense, even if we shoot quickly on offense, there will be reduced possessions, so each must be valued highly. As a result, he coaches the kids to keep working the offense until they get a good look, and only take a poor shot when you're absolutely forced to by the clock.

On the other end of the court, how many open looks can even extremely-good offenses create against the pack line in the 30 seconds they're currently allotted? I would contend that UVA would start holding other teams to impossibly low scores if they've only got 15 seconds to work against a Bennett defense.

[jv001]

As a Hoos fan, I'm often surprised at this view. People thought the shortened shot clock that has already happened would hurt UVA.

It's my view that the defensive benefit would more than offset any harm a shorter shot clock would do to UVA's offense. Bennett's philosophy is absolutely not to use all of the time the shot clock allows on offense. If one of our kids gets a genuinely good look one second in, they're supposed to take that shot. Rather, it's a philosophy that says that given our defense, even if we shoot quickly on offense, there will be reduced possessions, so each must be valued highly. As a result, he coaches the kids to keep working the offense until they get a good look, and only take a poor shot when you're absolutely forced to by the clock.

On the other end of the court, how many open looks can even extremely-good offenses create against the pack line in the 30 seconds they're currently allotted? I would contend that UVA would start holding other teams to impossibly low scores if they've only got 15 seconds to work against a Bennett defense.

I just want Virginia to have to shoot in 15 seconds not Duke. I was joking when I added that to my post. I couldn't post a smiley face when I edited my post. You guys play be the rules and your coach is a great one. Now that cheat team in Chapel Hell does not play by the rules.

GoDuke!

[ElliottHoo]

Oh, you should be very proud of your Cavs as they have turned their season around well enough to factor into the ACC regular season crown. Bennett may have done is best coaching this season and will probably be considered for ACC coach of the year. You make a good point regarding the pace of play keeping both teams in the game. My post was maybe answering Elliotthoos post about the difference in the rankings of some of the services.

GoDuke!

Oh, sure. I'm really not saying NET is wrong. Someone clearly is, but the gap between the two is pretty impressive. That having been said, UVA is hardly alone in this.

[DarkstarWahoo]

I have no doubt NET is broken, but UVA is doing its part to break it. I have not checked this, but someone on the Sabre posted that there are three teams in the last five years to post an adjusted offensive efficiency below 100 (1 point per possession):

2016 Boston College (finished 0-18)
2018 Pitt (finished 0-18)
2020 UVA (currently 14-5)

That’s going to be an incredible outlier in any system. It’s no wonder an efficiency-based system like NET has no idea what to make of them.

[jv001]

I have no doubt NET is broken, but UVA is doing its part to break it. I have not checked this, but someone on the Sabre posted that there are three teams in the last five years to post an adjusted offensive efficiency below 100 (1 point per possession):

2016 Boston College (finished 0-18)
2018 Pitt (finished 0-18)
2020 UVA (currently 14-5)

That’s going to be an incredible outlier in any system. It’s no wonder an efficiency-based system like NET has no idea what to make of them.

No matter who the Cavs played during their current win streak, winning those close games have surely given them confidence which should help them going forward. Plus, your coach will not them be over confident.

GoDuke!

[jjasper0729]

Virginia's 7 game winning streak and Ken-Pom ratiing:

Notre Dame...#61 KP 50-49 at home.
Uncheats...#83 KP 64-62 away (Robinson didn't play for the cheats)
BC...#175 KP 78-65 home.
Pitt...#113 KP 59-56 away
VT...#97 KP 56-53 away
Duke...#6 KP 52-50 home
Miami...#105 KP 46-44 away

Take out the BC(175) game at home and their wins have been by: 1,2,3,3,2,2 for a total of 15 points in those 6 games. That's an average of 2.5 points per game or one possession. Their best wins are Arizona State #58 neutral court, Duke at home, FSU at home, and Cuse#54 at home. They have been very lucky to come away with that many close wins. K-Pom has the luck factor at +.102 and 8. I'm not that educated on kpom to know what the 8 means. Could it be the 8th luckiest team in division one?
With the ACC having a down year that's not helped either.

It looks like a combination of their defense and their style of play puts pressure on their opponents. Players and coaches know every possession counts so much when you play them and that puts added pressure on the opponent, especially if you're playing them in John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavs are rated #45 in Kpom and may not be fun to watch but their style keeps them in games. I guess #45 is about right when looking at the overall prediction of how they will perform when they play to teams.

GoDuke!

Maybe the NCAA needs to make them shoot the ball in 15 seconds. Like the NCAA had to wipe out Dean's four corner offense.

Very good break down of the UVa wins. I still say, after watching how they dictated pace to us in that game in JPJ, that the strategy probably should be to go 1990 Loyola Marymount on them. If you trust that you have good scorers and/or shooters, put them on the floor and play at a break neck pace. If they miss, they don't try to get offensive rebounds and send at least four, usually five back for defense so go ahead and send two to three guys leaking out so that there can be some quick outlet passes and just run run run run run.

[JasonEvans]

538 has a good article on Virginia and how the Cavs are trying to win with an historically bad offense. It includes this chart that shows Virginia will be far and away the worst offensive team in modern hoops history to get a top 8 seed in the NCAA tourney.



-Jason "the article also says Virginia's strategy is working and they are the kind of team that could upset a couple clubs in the Dance and make a real run" Evans

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

So, are the hoos just historically lucky this year? Or are they the college hoops equivalent of the Oakland A’s?