MBB: Duke v NCSU (Mon 3/2, 7:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Edouble]

Not sure where DBA is tonight, but we are 22 hours away from the tip of a huge home game and I'm ready to discuss!

Let's.
Go.
Duke.

[moonpie23]

need some payback... GO DUKE

[arnie]

Not sure where DBA is tonight, but we are 22 hours away from the tip of a huge home game and I'm ready to discuss!

Let's.
Go.
Duke.

Early line is Duke -13. Again, seems too high.

[jipops]

I would feel a lot better about this if it was Tue or Wed. But with such a quick turnaround I don’t feel good about this one at all. This team and staff has struggled with preparation lately. Not sure they will be prepared tomorrow either.

[gofurman]

I would feel a lot better about this if it was Tue or Wed. But with such a quick turnaround I don’t feel good about this one at all. This team and staff has struggled with preparation lately. Not sure they will be prepared tomorrow either.

Anti-jinx. Don’t know how we win. Wear your lucky underwear everyone

[UrinalCake]

It's difficult to scout or breakdown what we need to do, because in the first matchup we basically got destroyed in every single facet of the game. I tend to think that K's preparation will be more psychological than strategic. At this point in the season we're not going to install a whole new offense or anything, K is just going to want his guys to play hard and compete. Maybe he shakes up the starting lineup or the rotation a bit but we've had so many iterations of guys playing and not playing that I'm not sure how much that would even matter.

[AZLA]

Settle down play with confidence take some jump shots be fine...

[gofurman]

Let’s not post anymore scouting of how “they are really bad at this” and such. Maybe just “they aren’t great at this”. No jinxes. And yes, the first matchup was about the most lackadaisical Duke effort I have seen in years. We couldn’t run a dribble hand off

[Troublemaker]

Early line is Duke -13. Again, seems too high.

The market will not be able to adjust quickly enough to Duke's collapse. If, say, we have 5 games left this season, we're likely to go 2-3 or 1-4 against the spread* in those games. Interestingly, this game is probably our best chance to cover because of the revenge factor.

(* Might as well profit so that something good comes out of this :-) The basketball itself isn't going to be pretty for Duke fans).

[Troublemaker]

Coach K's not going to do it, but one of the adjustments he needs to make is to play ice defense the way Thibs intended it to be played, which is with the big man a step or two closer to the basket. (For those unaware, Duke started icing pick-n-rolls [PnR] after collaborating with Tom Thibodeau on Team USA. "Ice" just means forcing the ball-handler away from the screen in PnR)

Look at the video below. You'll see that Chicago's guards play the ball screens the way our guards do by forcing the ball-handler away from the screen. BUT, look at where Chicago's bigs are positioned in the video, especially slow-footed Carlos Boozer whenever he's the big man defender. Chicago's bigs, especially Carlos, are generally either a step outside the paint or a step inside the paint. They're closer to the basket than Duke's bigs are. By positioning the big men closer to the basket, the big men can bottle up ball screen drives from the ball-handler instead of getting beaten to the basket. Additionally, the bigs are in better position to defend rolls to the basket.

Thibs was able to turn Carlos into an average or even above average defender against PnR using this scheme. We can do the same with Vernon, et al.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The market will not be able to adjust quickly enough to Duke's collapse. If, say, we have 5 games left this season, we're likely to go 2-3 or 1-4 against the spread* in those games. Interestingly, this game is probably our best chance to cover because of the revenge factor.

(* Might as well profit so that something good comes out of this :-) The basketball itself isn't going to be pretty for Duke fans).

I'm not at all sure this team cares enough to have a revenge factor. Tonight will be a very good test of that.

[Saratoga2]

It's difficult to scout or breakdown what we need to do, because in the first matchup we basically got destroyed in every single facet of the game. I tend to think that K's preparation will be more psychological than strategic. At this point in the season we're not going to install a whole new offense or anything, K is just going to want his guys to play hard and compete. Maybe he shakes up the starting lineup or the rotation a bit but we've had so many iterations of guys playing and not playing that I'm not sure how much that would even matter.

We aren't getting any new players, so the best that coach K can do is find the best lineup and sub routines based on the last games. Also he can adjust his defensive schemes. After that, its up to the players to execute.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Coach K's not going to do it, but one of the adjustments he needs to make is to play ice defense the way Thibs intended it to be played, which is with the big man a step or two closer to the basket. (For those unaware, Duke started icing pick-n-rolls [PnR] after collaborating with Tom Thibodeau on Team USA. "Ice" just means forcing the ball-handler away from the screen in PnR)

Look at the video below. You'll see that Chicago's guards play the ball screens the way our guards do by forcing the ball-handler away from the screen. BUT, look at where Chicago's bigs are positioned in the video, especially slow-footed Carlos Boozer whenever he's the big man defender. Chicago's bigs, especially Carlos, are generally either a step outside the paint or a step inside the paint. They're closer to the basket than Duke's bigs are. By positioning the big men closer to the basket, the big men can bottle up ball screen drives from the ball-handler instead of getting beaten to the basket. Additionally, the bigs are in better position to defend rolls to the basket.

Thibs was able to turn Carlos into an average or even above average defender against PnR using this scheme. We can do the same with Vernon, et al.

Thanks for sharing this. I too would love to see something different against the pnr. We can’t just keep switching every time and allowing the mismatch against Vern, JDL, Hurt, etc... Well, we can but it’s not likely to result in many good defensive stands. Seems to me the key is the guard stepping up and forcing the ball handler away from the pick. Otherwise you’re just giving away free open shots off the ball screen. I also seem to recall we did this a little bit a few years ago but have gotten away from it for some reason. Hopefully K and staff are tracking these comments!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'm not at all sure this team cares enough to have a revenge factor. Tonight will be a very good test of that.

Yowch. You don't have think our team cares enough?

Harsh words

[moonpie23]

Yowch. You don't have think our team cares enough?

Harsh words

Fire, they showeth not......

[Reddevil]

Fire, they showeth not...

Yeah, enough of the slow starts. Begin the game with the full court press. Get after it from the get go. The press is has been used later in the game to get the guys playing D. Start off with it. Step on their neck and don't look back. Ah-ooooh, werewolves in Cameron!

[CDu]

As we saw in Raleigh, when State comes to play, they are a really dynamic offensive team. They have two guards who are extremely adept at scoring off the dribble, plus a few options around them. Duke really needs to figure out a way to limit the opportunities for Daniels and Johnson, who absolutely roasted us with the high ball screens.

One strategy mentioned already is the concept of "icing" the screen (see Troublemaker's excellent post above in the thread). Icing will work best on ball screens set closer to the sideline. In those plays, you essentially create an extra defender with the sideline, and you also eliminate passing options for the ball handler. But the further towards the middle that the screen is set, the less effective icing will be. In the middle of the floor, you don't get the benefit of the "sideline defender", and you don't have the benefit of isolating the ballhandler away from his passing outlets. A lot of State's screens were near the top of the key, which isn't an optimal place to ice.

Another option is to have our guards go under the screen AND have the big play drop coverage (sagging off to protect the lane). That should reduce the amount of downhill action Daniels and Johnson can get, as well as eliminate the alleyoops to the rolling big. It would also help reduce the offensive rebounding opportunities for State that were created by all the scrambling to address the driver. Now, it's certainly not a flawless strategy. What it will do is result in more 3pt attempts. That has historically been anathema to Coach K - we are fourth in the nation in fewest 3pt attempts allowed this year. But it may help protect from the easy baskets State got at the rim. Essentially, we'd be daring them to replicate their crazy 3pt percentage from a couple of weeks ago.

I'd like to see a combination of those two: icing screens nearer the sideline and going under screens combined with drop coverage on ball screens near the top of the key. I want to dare their drivers to drive into double teams and commit turnovers, or make them a jumpshooting, one-shot team. I don't want their drivers getting confidence attacking isos on bigs, and I don't want easy second-chance points.

I'd also like to see more pressure applied to slow them down and/or force turnovers. Give them less time to work through screen progressions that allow them to isolate the ideal matchup. And if you can make them make a few more mistakes that give away possessions, all the better.

Ultimately, State has a couple of really good playmakers at guard, and a couple of bigs who are good in the pick and roll game. It's really hard to take away everything they can do offensively. You kind of have to hope that they make mistakes (which they tend to do) and/or have an off-night, and try to minimize the opportunities they have to get in optimal situations. Again, easier said than done, especially if Johnson and Daniels are playing with confidence. But if we can hold them to about a 1.05 points per possession unadjusted, that will be a reasonably good outcome.

And then we need to talk about the offense...

[jv001]

As we saw in Raleigh, when State comes to play, they are a really dynamic offensive team. They have two guards who are extremely adept at scoring off the dribble, plus a few options around them. Duke really needs to figure out a way to limit the opportunities for Daniels and Johnson, who absolutely roasted us with the high ball screens.

One strategy mentioned already is the concept of "icing" the screen (see Troublemaker's excellent post above in the thread). Icing will work best on ball screens set closer to the sideline. In those plays, you essentially create an extra defender with the sideline, and you also eliminate passing options for the ball handler. But the further towards the middle that the screen is set, the less effective icing will be. In the middle of the floor, you don't get the benefit of the "sideline defender", and you don't have the benefit of isolating the ballhandler away from his passing outlets. A lot of State's screens were near the top of the key, which isn't an optimal place to ice.

Another option is to have our guards go under the screen AND have the big play drop coverage (sagging off to protect the lane). That should reduce the amount of downhill action Daniels and Johnson can get, as well as eliminate the alleyoops to the rolling big. It would also help reduce the offensive rebounding opportunities for State that were created by all the scrambling to address the driver. Now, it's certainly not a flawless strategy. What it will do is result in more 3pt attempts. That has historically been anathema to Coach K - we are fourth in the nation in fewest 3pt attempts allowed this year. But it may help protect from the easy baskets State got at the rim. Essentially, we'd be daring them to replicate their crazy 3pt percentage from a couple of weeks ago.

I'd like to see a combination of those two: icing screens nearer the sideline and going under screens combined with drop coverage on ball screens near the top of the key. I want to dare their drivers to drive into double teams and commit turnovers, or make them a jumpshooting, one-shot team. I don't want their drivers getting confidence attacking isos on bigs, and I don't want easy second-chance points.

I'd also like to see more pressure applied to slow them down and/or force turnovers. Give them less time to work through screen progressions that allow them to isolate the ideal matchup. And if you can make them make a few more mistakes that give away possessions, all the better.

Ultimately, State has a couple of really good playmakers at guard, and a couple of bigs who are good in the pick and roll game. It's really hard to take away everything they can do offensively. You kind of have to hope that they make mistakes (which they tend to do) and/or have an off-night, and try to minimize the opportunities they have to get in optimal situations. Again, easier said than done, especially if Johnson and Daniels are playing with confidence. But if we can hold them to about a 1.05 points per possession unadjusted, that will be a reasonably good outcome.

And then we need to talk about the offense...

I'm calling for you help about the offense in the Virginia thread.

GoDuke!

[wgl1228]

I'm all for going back to the beginning of the year and just subbing 4 or even all 5 after every 5:00 span.

[CDu]

As much as we lost the game on defense against State, we were pretty bad offensively as well. We shot poorly from 3 and even worse from the FT line. We weren't terribly good inside the 3pt line either. Carey had a monster stat line, although State did make him work for it. But besides Carey, nobody else was good offensively. We need Tre Jones to be a better decision maker in terms of shot selection. We need to see Stanley make an impact in the game. And we need one of our options at PF to step up and be productive. In the State game, Hurt, White, Moore, and Baker combined for 3-9 for 7 points. Somebody needs to provide an alternative so that Jones doesn't feel the need to take ~20 FG attempts per game.

I don't have a good answer here. Part of the problem is that these guys are fairly limited. Hurt has challenges against State's smaller options at the 4 spot (Hellems and Bryce), Baker and Stanley aren't strong off the dribble, and White is essentially a set shooter/screener rebounder, and Moore is just sooooooo sloppy with the ball. Aside from Moore, these guys require you to "scheme them open", which we haven't seemed to figure out. Maybe they could work more high-low action with Hurt and Carey, with either being the post option. Maybe they can get some pick and pop action for Baker if he plays the 4 spot, and they could certainly do that with Hurt. With Stanley and Moore, I think their best chances offensively are in transition and in the weave action, where they can try to attack a seam if it opens. But we need to find a way to get these guys more consistently involved so that teams can't just focus everything on trying to limit or take away Carey.