ACC Tourney

[gofurman]

"Never count on State to do anything right." --Unknown opposing fan

When you want NCSU to beat UNC and they should, they get swept. When you want Duke to sweep them, we deservedly had Coach K's worst loss to an unranked team. The ultimate worst case of this scenario is NCSU to beat us, end up the overall #1 in the NIT, and keep us on the 3 line with a #6 NET ranking.

Anyone but State. Though we know Zone..

[Bob Green]

I would be delighted for a fresh Duke team to play Wake or Pitt after either had played two games in two days. Lots of heavy legs taking the court on Friday afternoon.

Duke will play State/Wake/Pitt on Thursday afternoon.

[Troublemaker]

The bracket:

[Troublemaker]

Decent bracket for Duke. If both m2m and zone are in Coach K's holster, I'm not that concerned about NCSU.

FSU must feel like they're due against us and will be sky high in the semifinals if that game occurs. (Remember, last season we had the Reddish buzzer-beater at FSU and then we beat them in the ACC championship game). But, because they couldn't get it done against Duke after our quick turnaround following the emotional double buzzer-beater comeback against UNC, I'm wondering if we just match up well against this team.

UNC has a relative cakewalk to the QF, but their season should (should!) end there.

[Indoor66]

Not excited to play Wake, State or Pitt. Wake or Pitt would have 2 games under their belt. State would have one win. I guess of the 3, I'd pick playing Pitt... I say that as I acknowledge the top 3 seeds would pose a bigger challenge. It's just that I'd rather have played any of the other lower seeds than Wake or State. Just a feeling. Duke better come out hungry - that will be the key to the game.

9F

At least I got a night's sleep with a good feeling about BB. I guess it is now time to obsess about how good our opponents will be and how poorly we will play...

[UrinalCake]

That Wake loss still stings, as we had a golden opportunity to capture the #1 seed. But regardless, we’re playing better now and that’s all that matters. Even though playing in the first session is harder for us as fans, I do like having the extra rest if we were to get through to the finals. Of the other top 3 teams, FSU is the o OT one that we’ve beaten so I’ll take that as a positive (even though it could be seen as a negative from the “revenge factor” perspective).

First things first though, gotta win that first game.

[budwom]

100% chance of winning the quarterfinals? Why bother playing? Seems just a tad high...

[lotusland]

Its already set as to who gets what bye. VSurprising as usually this is not set so early. None of the bottom 6 can catch the next 5.. none of 5 can catch top teams either.
Top teams w double bye set
Louisville 15-4
Florida State 14-4
Duke 13-5
Virginia 13-5

One day bye and play on Wed are set too:
NC State 9-9
Notre Dame 9-9
Syracuse 9-9
Clemson 9-9
Georgia Tech 9-9

The bottom 6 (first day play on Tue) are set as (( order is not set but these are the teams):
Boston College 7-11
Virginia Tech 6-12
Miami 6-12
Wake Forest 6-12
Pittsburgh 6-13
North Carolina 5-13

Why did Louisville, BC and Pitt play an extra conference game? Is that normal?

[Tripping William]

Why did Louisville, BC and Pitt play an extra conference game? Is that normal?

Everyone ended up playing a 20-game schedule. This info was nearly a week old by the time you quoted it.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Why did Louisville, BC and Pitt play an extra conference game? Is that normal?

Everyone has played 20 games.

[wsb3]

At least I got a night's sleep with a good feeling about BB. I guess it is now time to obsess about how good our opponents will be and how poorly we will play...

No, Indoor. I am going to enjoy the sweep of the Cheats all day & evening. Tomorrow I will return to obsessing.

[DavidBenAkiva]

100% chance of winning the quarterfinals? Why bother playing? Seems just a tad high...

I am not sure if you are joking, so I'll point out that KenPom is rating the probability of each team reaching that round. Duke got the double-bye, and so is guaranteed of playing in the quarterfinals.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I was sort of hoping that Duke got the 4 seed once it was clear FSU was going to get the 1 seed. Be careful what you wish for, right?

The draw is not bad for Duke.

It would not shock me if Pitt knocked off NC State. The two teams played in Raleigh on Saturday, February 29th in a game the Wolfpack trailed by 6 with under 8 minutes remaining. If NC State does survive Wednesday, I expect the matchup against Duke to favor the Blue Devils yet again. Manny Bates has had a ton of trouble matching up with Vernon Carey, Jr., which negates one of the Wolfpack's big weapons. And as long as Markell Johnson and Devon Daniels aren't shooting the ball with other worldly accuracy, Duke showed that it can effectively employ a zone.

I also think Duke matches up with FSU better than they do Louisville and Virginia. FSU can certainly beat Duke, but they lack the interior length and play to blunt Carey. The emergence of Justin Robinson is an interesting wrinkle, too. Matthew Hurt had a good game against the Noles. Robinson can do a lot of what Hurt does but seems more confident and able to repeat the performance. So long as Tre Jones and the team limits turnovers, I think Duke can take FSU on a neutral court.

After that, your guess is as good as mine. I do like that Robinson is sort of an ace in the hole for Duke. He's playing so well that teams have to game plan for him. But none of the other top teams have played against him much at all.

[Wahoo2000]

I was sort of hoping that Duke got the 4 seed once it was clear FSU was going to get the 1 seed. Be careful what you wish for, right?

The draw is not bad for Duke.

It would not shock me if Pitt knocked off NC State. The two teams played in Raleigh on Saturday, February 29th in a game the Wolfpack trailed by 6 with under 8 minutes remaining. If NC State does survive Wednesday, I expect the matchup against Duke to favor the Blue Devils yet again. Manny Bates has had a ton of trouble matching up with Vernon Carey, Jr., which negates one of the Wolfpack's big weapons. And as long as Markell Johnson and Devon Daniels aren't shooting the ball with other worldly accuracy, Duke showed that it can effectively employ a zone.

I also think Duke matches up with FSU better than they do Louisville and Virginia. FSU can certainly beat Duke, but they lack the interior length and play to blunt Carey. The emergence of Justin Robinson is an interesting wrinkle, too. Matthew Hurt had a good game against the Noles. Robinson can do a lot of what Hurt does but seems more confident and able to repeat the performance. So long as Tre Jones and the team limits turnovers, I think Duke can take FSU on a neutral court.

After that, your guess is as good as mine. I do like that Robinson is sort of an ace in the hole for Duke. He's playing so well that teams have to game plan for him. But none of the other top teams have played against him much at all.

I wouldn't discount "good Clemson" showing up on Thursday either. They've shown they're more than capable of knocking off the big boys - if they get off to a good start due to playing the day prior, and FSU starts slow due to time off/pressure/etc... I'd still probably take FSU giving the points in that matchup (I'd guess about 8 points), I'm just saying I'd be far from shocking if they beat a team they just beat last week at home.

Aside from Notre Dame, Clemson is the team outside the top 4 I see with the best chance of making the semis.

[budwom]

I am not sure if you are joking, so I'll point out that KenPom is rating the probability of each team reaching that round. Duke got the double-bye, and so is guaranteed of playing in the quarterfinals.

Did you omit any of the words that go with that chart? I ask because, no, I could not tell that it meant those were the odds of making "that round."

OK, so maybe I'm having a brain cramp, but when I look at the championship round, it looks to me like the sum of all the chances of making that round is only 100%...but don't we need two teams in the championship game?

[Troublemaker]

Did you omit any of the words that go with that chart? I ask because, no, I could not tell that it meant those were the odds of making "that round."

OK, so maybe I'm having a brain cramp, but when I look at the championship round, it looks to me like the sum of all the chances of making that round is only 100%...but don't we need two teams in the championship game?

The column labeled "Final" contains the odds to make the final, which should add up to 200 as you noted. The column labeled "Champ" contains the odds to win the championship, which should add up to 100.

[arnie]

Did you omit any of the words that go with that chart? I ask because, no, I could not tell that it meant those were the odds of making "that round."

OK, so maybe I'm having a brain cramp, but when I look at the championship round, it looks to me like the sum of all the chances of making that round is only 100%...but don't we need two teams in the championship game?

Maybe Budworm celebrated a bit much at the bonfire last night😏

[devildeac]

Maybe Budworm celebrated a bit much at the bonfire last night😏

Considering the temperatures in which budwom resides, he reportedly has a bonfire every night.

[budwom]

Maybe Budworm celebrated a bit much at the bonfire last night😏

I burned a bench and felt pretty good until I realized it was in my living room.

[Wahoo2000]

I burned a bench and felt pretty good until I realized it was in my living room.

Did you pay the Terp fanbase the necessary licensing fee?