MBB: Wake 113, Duke 101 (2OT) Post-Game Thread

[fgb]

also--good lord, just everyone chill out and count our blessings and be happy for a minute. yeah, the loss last night sucks, we lost a game to a really bad team, a game that we had in hand...but, if this is what passes as a down year for us? that we might be staring in the face of the possibility of having to settle for, god forbid, a lowly number 3 seeding in the ncaas? i'll take it.

we've been spoiled. it's amazing what we've experienced in cameron over the past decades. but honestly, just about every other school in the country would kill to have a down year look something like this one has for us. take a look down 15-501. and feel better.

[kako]

But I do enjoy the ride. Because I am a Duke fan. What's the alternative. Be miserable watching your life long passion.

Agree with much of what you said in your longer post, but I'd say I live for the ride... though at times I don't enjoy it. And the alternative? This year, it's being a Tarheel. So this is still better, with a little salve on the wound that Wake's win keeps UNC in the cellar.

9F

[kako]

Duke winning or losing a close game in the round of 32 or sweet 16 will not impact his draft position at all.

That's what I meant when I said, if Duke makes a deep run. Deep means FF, at least to Duke.

9F

[Kedsy]

I was also around during K's first years. And got to watch the K powerhouse begin. And it began with a class that got their rear ends handed to them early and often only to grow as a team and as individuals and end with one of the better seasons in Duke history in 1986. And then when they were predicted to go south in 1987, used experienced older players to bridge the program to 4 out of the next 5 FF's. But you see, that doesn't happen anymore. Kids are here for 7 months and then they are gone. That's why we lost last night. Not because we get everyone's best shot or because State and Wake played over their heads. We allowed them to play over their heads. Because we are "young". And we have been young for 7-8 years now. We aren't "old" anymore. We go into seasons relying on 19 year olds every year lately. We may have rode Tyus to the 2015 NC, but not without Quinn's leadership and the contributions of a number of upperclassmen. Rarely does a Duke team get better from November to March anymore. We are world beaters in Nov/Dec and playing with flat tires heading into March. Last year we had generational talent on our team. The great Zion Williamson. But the team that crushed Kentucky in November with contributions from 7+ players limped into March depending almost solely on two players. Who were 19-20 and now are GONE. We weren't a "team" in March last year. And we are another "young" team this year still looking for an identity on February 26th. I don't have a lot of confidence going into March. The growing we did after the State game lasted 72 hours. We took a 9 point lead with 75 seconds left to a 12 point loss last night. I take no comfort in reversing a double digit deficit. We were playing the #14 team in the conference.

It will take a consistent, focused level of play for another young team to advance far in the NCAA tournament. One and out is the same as "taking everyone's best shot". I don't care if it is on a neutral site. Beating Duke in the NCAA's is as big a motivation as beating Duke on your home court playing over your head. Lots of teams play over their head in March, especially against Duke. And I don't think that this team has the mental make up to handle that this year. Way too inconsistent in a digressing defense and the motion offense breaks down way too much as we get deeper in the year. Which is weird. You would think after 28 games that we would be more consistent. But, they are "young" A recurring theme.

I was also at Duke at that time (a couple years earlier than Devil84). And yes, we relied more on upperclassmen then, but the days when your stars stay for four seasons is gone. We just have to accept that. Putting that aside, saying "we have been young for 7-8 years now" is misleading. Below is a table showing how many Duke minutes have been played by freshmen since 2011 (when Duke entered the "OAD era"):

Year	%frosh	NCAA
2018	67.5%	8
2019	61.0%	8
2015	50.0%	1
2016	46.8%	16
2020	44.3%	??
2017	33.4%	32
2012	23.8%	64
2013	23.6%	8
2014	19.8%	64
2011	10.9%	16

Looking at the table tells me a couple things. First, we haven't been "young" for seven or eight seasons; the most you can say is six (and that's only if you count the 2017 team that started two seniors, a junior, and a sophomore as "young," so most accurately it's 5 out of 6). And second, the three seasons with the most freshman minutes all made at least the Elite Eight, while two of the four with fewer than 25% freshman minutes lost in the first round. So maybe veteran leadership isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Personally, I would attribute those late-80s/early-90s Final Fours at least as much to luck as to veteran presence:

1986: Duke played a #12 seed in the Sweet 16 (won by 7 points) and a #7 seed in the Elite Eight;
1988: Duke played a #11 seed in the Sweet 16 and won by 1 point;
1989: Duke played a #11 seed in the Sweet 16;
1990: Duke played a #7 seed in the Sweet 16 and won in the Elite Eight by 1 point in overtime on a last-second shot;
1991: Duke played a #11 seed in the Sweet 16 and a #4 seed in the Elite Eight;
1992: Duke won in the Elite Eight by 1 point in overtime on a last-second shot;
1994: Duke played a #6 seed in the Sweet 16.

Our young teams of the past two seasons lost in the Elite Eight in overtime (after a last second shot that would have won the game rimmed out) and by 1 point (after a missed FT). If you really think the difference between those last-second losses and the 1990 and 1992 last-second wins was veteran presence, then it's hard to have this conversation (though it may be worth noting that the 1990 Duke Final Four team had freshmen playing 28.9% of its minutes). Similarly, if you really think Duke would have made all of the other five Final Fours in the period if they hadn't played double-digit seeds in four of those five Sweet 16s (and a #6 in the other), I think you're glasses are tinted a bit too blue.

Finally, I find the widespread recent complaining about this team to be both amusing and annoying. For years, people have been complaining about the OAD strategy, and this is exactly the team those complainers wanted:

(1) experienced PG (check);

(2a) one or two recruits in the OAD range (check: Vernon was ranked #5, which is almost always OAD; and Matthew was ranked #12, which is sometimes OAD -- last ten seasons (including one year when there was a tie for #12), the #12 recruit has gone pro after his freshman season three times and has played multiple seasons seven times, with one #12 choosing to play pro overseas and didn't play in college at all);

(2b) additional recruits, not in the OAD range (check: players ranked like Wendell (#25) and Cassius (#33) hardly ever go OAD; and per above, recruits ranked #12 like Matthew often don't go after one season);

(3) upperclassmen in the 30 to 70 range (check: Javin was #35; Joey was #37; Alex was #69);

(4) low-rated recruits who develop into contributors (check: Jack and Jordan who were not even top 200 recruits are both over 15 mpg);

(5) Coach K going further than 7 deep (check: we have 10 players with more than 10 mpg).

But here's the thing -- this is what happens to teams built as described above; this is what we should expect from a team with less talent. Teams like this sometimes put up stinkers; they can't always dominate; they sometimes disappoint.

This is a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment. And get used to it, because next year should be more of the same.

[freshmanjs]

That's what I meant when I said, if Duke makes a deep run. Deep means FF, at least to Duke.

9F

ok...winning or losing a close game in the elite 8 will not change his draft status at all.

[brevity]

2. We played the second half very well... right up until the last 81 seconds. We built a 9 point lead, and then cratered mentally. Tre Jones committed a soft foul on Sarr's layup (if you're going to foul, foul hard; otherwise, get out of the way), giving them a 3 point play instead of 2. Then Moore committed a sloppy turnover trying to split two defenders rather than playing it safe and forcing them to foul or running clock. Then we got ourselves in trouble TWICE by sending the ball to the baseline, resulting in two turnovers by Goldwire (the second one was a bad call, but we never should have been in that situation).

The team just played with a complete lack of poise to end the game there. A frustrating way to lose a game that, for 25 minutes, we completely dominated (outscoring them by 21 points).

I took a look at the Play-by-Play this morning to confirm a theory I had while watching last night: regardless of what Duke was doing toward the end of the game, Wake Forest was able to score points in almost every possession.

Each line below represents a Wake Forest possession. Whatever Duke does is only reflected in the score.

Regulation

1:21 score 69-78
1:11 Childress miss, Sarr layup plus one (72-78)
0:56 Neath layup (74-78)
0:34 Sarr dunk (76-79)
0:17 Childress three (79-79)
0:01 Childress miss (79-79)

1st OT

4:39 Brown free throws (81-79)
3:52 Childress miss, Oguama miss (81-81)
3:31 Sarr miss (81-84)
3:07 Massoud jumper (83-84)
2:33 Childress jumper (85-84)
1:52 Sarr free throws (87-84)
1:25 Sarr layup (89-86)
0:47 Childress layup plus one (92-88)
0:37 Brown free throws (94-90)
0:23 Mucius free throws (96-92)
0:12 Mucius free throw (97-95)
0:01 Brown turnover (97-97)

2nd OT

4:38 Childress three (100-97)
3:48 Childress miss, Oguama layup (102-97)
3:07 Childress miss (102-97)
2:29 Mucius jumper (104-97)
1:49 Childress free throw (105-99)
1:16 Childress jumper (107-99)
0:48 Childress layup (109-101)
0:36 Brown free throws (111-101)
0:15 Mucius dunk (113-101)

And to be a completist/masochist, here is every Duke possession over the same period of time:

Regulation

1:21 score 78-69
1:01 Moore turnover (78-72)
0:45 Stanley free throw (79-74)
0:24 Goldwire turnover (79-76)
0:09 Jones turnover (79-79)

1st OT

4:22 Jones jumper (81-81)
3:44 Moore layup plus one (84-81)
3:24 Jones miss (84-81)
2:46 Hurt miss (84-83)
2:12 Robinson miss (84-85)
1:42 Jones free throws (86-87)
1:03 Hurt miss, Moore free throws (88-89)
0:38 Jones free throws (90-92)
0:32 Moore layup (92-94)
0:18 O'Connell three (95-96)
0:07 Jones free throws (97-97)

2nd OT

4:23 Jones miss (97-100)
3:34 Hurt miss (97-102)
2:56 Stanley miss (97-102)
2:17 Jones free throws (99-104)
1:45 Jones turnover (99-105)
0:58 Moore free throws (101-107)
0:40 Jones miss (101-109)
0:33 O'Connell miss (101-111)
0:07 O'Connell miss (101-113)

So there you go. In this timeframe, Duke had one offensive rebound (at 1:03 in the 1st OT) and 4 field goals (all in the 1st OT).

Normally I would raise a big fuss about how basketball metrics are deficient because they measure shooting percentages but not possession conversion percentages (the percentage of a team's possessions in which they score at least 1 point, regardless of how many shots and offensive rebounds it took). But here it didn't really matter: Wake usually scored at their first chance, and Duke usually failed to score and got no second chance.

[proelitedota]

I am somewhat surprised how many people are poo-pooing the officiating. Fouls don't occur in a vacuum and how they are called impacts the game and how it is played. Over the course of a game I think bad calls tend to average out with one team being slightly in the red. Between bad calls on Duke and non-calls on Wake, Duke was markedly in the red last night.

Duke was robbed last night. They did leave the safe open, but it does not negate the fact that they were robbed. Maybe a great team can overcome that level of adversity, but Duke is more of a good team with the strong potential to be great on any given night.

Yep. If we have the same officiating every game we would be .5 on the season.

[devildeac]

I was thinking of maybe blaming the refs for fouling out our 3 inside players prior to that stretch?

Nah, never happened before. Wait, are you Jethro Tull:

[DukeDTD]

[QUOTE=brevity;1231197]I took a look at the Play-by-Play this morning to confirm a theory I had while watching last night: regardless of what Duke was doing toward the end of the game, Wake Forest was able to score points in almost every possession.

Each line below represents a Wake Forest possession. Whatever Duke does is only reflected in the score.

Regulation

1:21 score 69-78
1:11 Childress miss, Sarr layup plus one (72-78)
0:56 Neath layup (74-78)
0:34 Sarr dunk (76-79)
0:17 Childress three (79-79)
0:01 Childress miss (79-79)

1st OT

4:39 Brown free throws (81-79)
3:52 Childress miss, Oguama miss (81-81)
3:31 Sarr miss (81-84)
3:07 Massoud jumper (83-84)
2:33 Childress jumper (85-84)
1:52 Sarr free throws (87-84)
1:25 Sarr layup (89-86)
0:47 Childress layup plus one (92-88)
0:37 Brown free throws (94-90)
0:23 Mucius free throws (96-92)
0:12 Mucius free throw (97-95)
0:01 Brown turnover (97-97)

2nd OT

4:38 Childress three (100-97)
3:48 Childress miss, Oguama layup (102-97)
3:07 Childress miss (102-97)
2:29 Mucius jumper (104-97)
1:49 Childress free throw (105-99)
1:16 Childress jumper (107-99)
0:48 Childress layup (109-101)
0:36 Brown free throws (111-101)
0:15 Mucius dunk (113-101)

No resistance. Absolutely zero.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

[QUOTE=DukeDTD;1231211]

I took a look at the Play-by-Play this morning to confirm a theory I had while watching last night: regardless of what Duke was doing toward the end of the game, Wake Forest was able to score points in almost every possession.

Each line below represents a Wake Forest possession. Whatever Duke does is only reflected in the score.

Regulation

1:21 score 69-78
1:11 Childress miss, Sarr layup plus one (72-78)
0:56 Neath layup (74-78)
0:34 Sarr dunk (76-79)
0:17 Childress three (79-79)
0:01 Childress miss (79-79)

1st OT

4:39 Brown free throws (81-79)
3:52 Childress miss, Oguama miss (81-81)
3:31 Sarr miss (81-84)
3:07 Massoud jumper (83-84)
2:33 Childress jumper (85-84)
1:52 Sarr free throws (87-84)
1:25 Sarr layup (89-86)
0:47 Childress layup plus one (92-88)
0:37 Brown free throws (94-90)
0:23 Mucius free throws (96-92)
0:12 Mucius free throw (97-95)
0:01 Brown turnover (97-97)

2nd OT

4:38 Childress three (100-97)
3:48 Childress miss, Oguama layup (102-97)
3:07 Childress miss (102-97)
2:29 Mucius jumper (104-97)
1:49 Childress free throw (105-99)
1:16 Childress jumper (107-99)
0:48 Childress layup (109-101)
0:36 Brown free throws (111-101)
0:15 Mucius dunk (113-101)

No resistance. Absolutely zero.

Quick math, 1.69 PPP...yikes! No resistance indeed .

[CameronDuke]

In 2015, a trip to UVa following a disappointing road loss (as well as the dismissal of a player from the program) was just what the doctor ordered for Duke.

Maybe 2020 will be the same. Another Jones brother played pretty well at UVa and Tre is 1-0 there as well.

I’m disappointed by last night’s loss but still saw some good things among the really bad things. I think Robinson is going to assume a bigger role these last 3 games of the regular season as well as in the ACCT and NCAAT. I think defensive position and rotations will he stressed to the front court players and defending without fouling will be emphasized.

I go into the NCAAT each year with the mindset that probably about 10ish teams have a legitimate shot at winning the national title which is Duke’s ultimate goal. First, if we don’t achieve that goal (which we will statistically most of the time), it’s still a fun season to even be in March Madness to me. Secondly, if we nitpick why Duke can’t win a national title, we could do the same thing for any of those 10ish teams that has a shot at winning it.

We do have a coach with the most NCAAT wins out of any active coach and the most all time. We have a coach that has won the NCAAT more than any active coach. And we have players that on a given night, I believe have the talent and have gotten the coaching to win vs anyone in the country. Sure, they could lose to anyone in the NCAAT likely but that’s the way it goes in March. I follow UVa a pretty closely as well as Duke and their 2018 and 2019 NCAAT performances are a great example of how March Madness can giveth and taketh away.

Enjoy the ride folks!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Can’t find Coach K’s post game presser on BDN, YouTube or anywhere else on the interwebs.

Anyone have a link? Thanks

[kAzE]

I find the widespread recent complaining about this team to be both amusing and annoying. For years, people have been complaining about the OAD strategy, and this is exactly the team those complainers wanted:

(1) experienced PG (check);

(2a) one or two recruits in the OAD range (check: Vernon was ranked #5, which is almost always OAD; and Matthew was ranked #12, which is sometimes OAD -- last ten seasons (including one year when there was a tie for #12), the #12 recruit has gone pro after his freshman season three times and has played multiple seasons seven times, with one #12 choosing to play pro overseas and didn't play in college at all);

(2b) additional recruits, not in the OAD range (check: players ranked like Wendell (#25) and Cassius (#33) hardly ever go OAD; and per above, recruits ranked #12 like Matthew often don't go after one season);

(3) upperclassmen in the 30 to 70 range (check: Javin was #35; Joey was #37; Alex was #69);

(4) low-rated recruits who develop into contributors (check: Jack and Jordan who were not even top 200 recruits are both over 15 mpg);

(5) Coach K going further than 7 deep (check: we have 10 players with more than 10 mpg).

But here's the thing -- this is what happens to teams built as described above; this is what we should expect from a team with less talent. Teams like this sometimes put up stinkers; they can't always dominate; they sometimes disappoint.

This is a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment. And get used to it, because next year should be more of the same.

I'm firmly in the "recruit the best players, even if they are OAD" camp, but in defense of the other people, it's almost unprecedented to have been in this program for as long as Javin DeLaurier and Alex O'Connell have, as recruited players, and basically not improve at all since their freshman year. In order for the upperclassmen strategy to work (2010 is the most recent and best example of this), those mid-range recruits have got to get better every year, and become strong contributors by the time they are juniors and seniors. And they almost always do at Duke. Almost ALWAYS.

To give some perspective, here are some of the guys I'm talking about who were ranked below the top tier of recruits, who stayed at Duke and became good, reliable players as upperclassmen: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Tyler Thornton, Seth Curry, Marshall Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, Sean Dockery, Lee Melchionni

Our juniors and seniors on this team have been very disappointing, and although I don't have more than my own memory to go on, I feel like they are historically disappointing for Duke upperclassmen who were recruited. Usually, there might be one guy who was recruited and doesn't pan out (Josh Hairston comes to mind), but to have 2 of those guys on the same team really hurts. Imagine if we just had Amile and Matt Jones instead of Javin and AOC. This team would be far and away the best team in the land.

[happydays1949]

Can’t find Coach K’s post game presser on BDN, YouTube or anywhere else on the interwebs.

Anyone have a link? Thanks

https://www.facebook.com/DukeMBB/vid...s%20conference

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

In an attempt to put a smile on some faces and add to some of the up-thread relative perspective on our season, I share this glorious photo I just ran across. It was part of a USA Today collection of 95 photos of college basketball fans, mascots and cheerleaders from the 2019-20 season so far. This was the ONLY photo among the 95 that showed a mascot, fans or cheerleaders sulking. The caption says it’s from when Tre forced our game with them into over overtime. Perfect encapsulation of despair. And, I think, a reminder that we still have it pretty darn good.

74B080C1-37DB-4567-BE78-3753BE4B920C.jpg

[peteandpete]

A team loss includes coaching I think. I really miss the days when, even with experienced teams, K would be up and more involved during the game. Things were unraveling and he refused to use a TO (2 left) at the end of regulation, failed to foul when up three, left another player on the bench (Jack) as the bigs piled up fouls, and chose not to try zone or perhaps show more pressure. Yes, I know he's got more wins as a coach then I do; but, I don't think this was his best moment.

[Natty_B]

To give some perspective, here are some of the guys I'm talking about who were ranked below the top tier of recruits, who stayed at Duke and became good, reliable players as upperclassmen: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Tyler Thornton, Seth Curry, Marshall Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, Sean Dockery, Lee Melchionni

Our juniors and seniors on this team have been very disappointing, and although I don't have more than my own memory to go on, I feel like they are historically disappointing for Duke upperclassmen who were recruited. Usually, there might be one guy who was recruited and doesn't pan out (Josh Hairston comes to mind), but to have 2 of those guys on the same team really hurts. Imagine if we just had Amile and Matt Jones instead of Javin and AOC. This team would be far and away the best team in the land.

There are others besides Hairston. Depends how far back you go and how you define "pan out." I made a Greg Newton joke in the Jack White thread - he's one for the oldheads. Ricky Price, Paulus, Andre Dawkins all didn't "pan out" to some degree and dropped off in their final years.

But yes the point stands I think we were all expecting something more from the seniors - a little more of the DeLaurier from the elite 8 last year for instance.

[CDu]

I'm firmly in the "recruit the best players, even if they are OAD" camp, but in defense of the other people, it's almost unprecedented to have been in this program for as long as Javin DeLaurier and Alex O'Connell have, as recruited players, and basically not improve at all since their freshman year. In order for the upperclassmen strategy to work (2010 is the most recent and best example of this), those mid-range recruits have got to get better every year, and become strong contributors by the time they are juniors and seniors. And they almost always do at Duke. Almost ALWAYS.

I think the bolded is a bit of an overstatement. We've had lots of guys who haven't gotten better to the point of being a reliable player. Randolph, Hairston, Bolden, Pocius, Dawkins, McClure, Christensen, Domzalski, Sanders, etc. And that's excluding the guys who transferred away because they weren't panning out: Murphy, Boateng, King, Thompson (note: I'm not including the transfers who panned out elsewhere). So it's far from unprecedented for us to have juniors and seniors who were unreliable players.

Maybe it is unusual to have two (or in this case possibly 3) at one time. The last time that was, well, last year (Bolden and DeLaurier). Before that, maybe 2008 (Pocius and McClure). And it is perhaps unusual that neither DeLaurier nor O'Connell have elected to transfer out, which wouldn't have helped this team but might have been more consistent with what has happened historically. But it's not THAT rare for a mid-tier recruit to not pan out at Duke.

[wsb3]

https://www.facebook.com/DukeMBB/vid...s%20conference

Thanks for sharing the presser. I love Coach K. I use to dream for well over half of my life about one NC. We have 5. I am grateful for all he has done for Duke Basketball. Do you sense a but coming?

But I don't think it plays well to talk about how young you are in late February. You recruit OAD's & I am not being critical of that. But if that is the emphasis of your recruiting then you are obviously going to be young every year. He is always so postitive and doesn't want his teams to look for excuses. Well, don't give them one by talking about how young you are this time of year. It sounds like excuses. And you had a well seasoned senior sitting on the bench through crunch time when you were getting pounded inside.

Just my two cents.

[proelitedota]

Had the game being officiated evenly we would have won by 10-15 points. I am at times big critics of the team, but last night the loss was 75% on the officiating.

If K brings it up in the presser, he had problem with it.

There was a stretch in which 10 consecutive fouls were called on us. I've not seen that ever in any basketball game. I am mostly miffed at the calls that Wake was getting before the final few minutes that led our bigs to all foul out.

If we had to endure that kind of officiating every game, we would be .5 most seasons as we would have lost all the games that were semi-close.

All these people pointing to the ease at Wake scored down the stretch. well duh. We had to play Hurt at center, and Wake's bigs feasted.

I am not discouraged by our team's development, I did not see any regression last night.