MBB: Wake 113, Duke 101 (2OT) Post-Game Thread

[Steven43]

One thing for sure, that slowwww release 3 point shot won't work in the NBA.

GoDuke!

Well, that is certainly true.

Hey, I like Vernon Carey and wish him well. In fact, I like him so much that for my own selfish reasons I would love for him to stay at Duke for four years. I’m just not optimistic about his chances of making it as a starter in the NBA, that’s all.

It’s a whole new world for big men trying to make it in the modern NBA. I hope Vernon proves my skepticism about his chances to be 100% wrong. That would make me happy. 😊

[jv001]

Well, that is certainly true.

Hey, I like Vernon Carey and wish him well. In fact, I like him so much that for my own selfish reasons I would love for him to stay at Duke for four years. I’m just not optimistic about his chances of making it as a starter in the NBA, that’s all.

It’s a whole new world for big men trying to make it in the modern NBA. I hope Vernon proves my skepticism about his chances to be 100% wrong. That would make me happy. 😊

I'm with you in wishing Vernon would stay at Duke for four years but it's wishful thinking on both our parts.

GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, I don’t consider my comment of him being an “old school center” to be anything other than what we have literally witnessed during his time at Duke. I consider his play in college to be much more determinative of how the NBA views his game than anything he did in high school. And his play at Duke has mostly been that of a traditional center.

I'd place the credit/blame for how he is used on K, if Duke has completely changed his game.

Again, all I know is what I keep hearing, but apparently Carey has a lot more in his toolbox.

[Steven43]

I'd place the credit/blame for how he is used on K, if Duke has completely changed his game.

Again, all I know is what I keep hearing, but apparently Carey has a lot more in his toolbox.

Well darn it all, if it is indeed true that Carey has more skills than he has been exhibiting at Duke what in the heck are he and K waiting for?

Are they planning to spring a surprise in the Regional Finals and finally unleash his full arsenal on an unwitting (and therefore, doomed) opponent? I don’t understand.

[AZLA]

I'd place the credit/blame for how he is used on K, if Duke has completely changed his game.

Again, all I know is what I keep hearing, but apparently Carey has a lot more in his toolbox.

VC will be fine. He can shoot and he can run. He’s big and strong with good footwork without being a tall loafing center. He’s also tough and has an edge. He’s actually perfect for the NBA as a team guy. Again look at Draymond Green. There are more guys that VC matches well to in the NBA than we are giving him credit for. Whether he is ever a starter or 2nd team depends on how prepared he is coming into the league. Staying at Duke won’t help. He has to go this year. And Duke, Coach K especially, has to get their BLEEP together mentally and start kicking arse And winning. These bad losses are hurting VCs stock more than he is.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'd place the credit/blame for how he is used on K, if Duke has completely changed his game.

Again, all I know is what I keep hearing, but apparently Carey has a lot more in his toolbox.

This is an interesting issue....I don't know if his game per se has been changed, but I do know in high school he played more on the perimeter, at least by reputation. It is very unusual for this to happen...a guy moves inside in college instead of outside. Now, has he "lost" his outside game? I doubt it. I think it's more likely he has found an inside game, and having both will help him.

Now, will this utilization help Duke in March, hopefully April? Jury still out.

[CDu]

This is an interesting issue...I don't know if his game per se has been changed, but I do know in high school he played more on the perimeter, at least by reputation. It is very unusual for this to happen...a guy moves inside in college instead of outside. Now, has he "lost" his outside game? I doubt it. I think it's more likely he has found an inside game, and having both will help him.

Now, will this utilization help Duke in March, hopefully April? Jury still out.

I think a big part of it was team composition and competition in high school. He played with Scottie Barnes, one of the top prospects in next year's class. That meant that he could coast a bit more. While I don't think he's ever been a great perimeter shooter, he's a capable perimeter shooter. And in high school, that was probably enough. The question with Carey coming in was going to be the "want to." A big chunk of that was how willing he would be to do the dirty work inside. Clearly, he's shown that willingness on this team.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well darn it all, if it is indeed true that Carey has more skills than he has been exhibiting at Duke what in the heck are he and K waiting for?

Are they planning to spring a surprise in the Regional Finals and finally unleash his full arsenal on an unwitting (and therefore, doomed) opponent? I don’t understand.

Man, I don't have the answers you are wanting me to give, sorry. I am not sure what you are insinuating.

Maybe we have only one strong tall player so we use him under the basket? Are you suggesting that the reports of him playing on the perimeter in high school are lies?

I'm sure K has good reason to use Carey as he does, whether it's need or perceived skillset.

You just said he was an "old school" back to the basket guy, and I told you what I've heard repeatedly on in-game broadcasts. I wasn't trying to call you a liar or start a fistfight.

Maybe Carey completely lost his handles and outside shot. Maybe K is waiting to unleash his mad perimeter game the second weekend of the tournament. Maybe he turned into a Tim Duncan old school big when he got to Durham. I don't know.

[Saratoga2]

VC will be fine. He can shoot and he can run. He’s big and strong with good footwork without being a tall loafing center. He’s also tough and has an edge. He’s actually perfect for the NBA as a team guy. Again look at Draymond Green. There are more guys that VC matches well to in the NBA than we are giving him credit for. Whether he is ever a starter or 2nd team depends on how prepared he is coming into the league. Staying at Duke won’t help. He has to go this year. And Duke, Coach K especially, has to get their BLEEP together mentally and start kicking arse And winning. These bad losses are hurting VCs stock more than he is.

The Celtics may be a good fit.

[DukieInBrasil]

Man, I don't have the answers you are wanting me to give, sorry. I am not sure what you are insinuating.

Maybe we have only one strong tall player so we use him under the basket? Are you suggesting that the reports of him playing on the perimeter in high school are lies?

I'm sure K has good reason to use Carey as he does, whether it's need or perceived skillset.

You just said he was an "old school" back to the basket guy, and I told you what I've heard repeatedly on in-game broadcasts. I wasn't trying to call you a liar or start a fistfight.

Maybe Carey completely lost his handles and outside shot. Maybe K is waiting to unleash his mad perimeter game the second weekend of the tournament. Maybe he turned into a Tim Duncan old school big when he got to Durham. I don't know.

on the offensive side of the ball, i can't imagine that anyone on this board is seriously concerned about Vernon's development nor that he isn't showing something that he can in fact do.
It's on the defensive side of the ball that Big Vern has issues. He's a fine defender against other bigs, it's when he gets isolated on guards/wings that are good at finishing at the rim that he has become a real liability and one that teams are picking up on.
It is K's responsibility to recognize this and design a different defensive scheme to limit this sort of exposure. Every single team that has strong, powerful guards that are good at driving have exposed the lack of defensive scheme to control it and burned Duke badly with it. K's legendary stubbornness is costing this team (as it did in 2014). I hope K and the coaches are flexible enough to come up with a different scheme or allow the players to utilize a different one within games so that this team can achieve it's potential. Cuz it sure ain't gonna achieve the potential if we continually allow the opponents' guards to get isolated on Vernon and drive to the rim. And none of this is to say that Vernon is at fault for this, he shouldn't be tasked with staying in front of fast guards.

[rsvman]

I think we could and perhaps should open up Carey's game a bit more on occasion. Flash him out to the perimeter once in a while. Let him take more mid-range jumpers. Then on the next trip down, post him up and let him use his new-found "old-school center" skills.

If he's Inspector Gadget, I think we should utilize all facets of his gadgetdom. Whatever it takes to gain an advantage works for me.

[Kedsy]

Every single team that has strong, powerful guards that are good at driving have exposed the lack of defensive scheme to control it and burned Duke badly with it.

Wait, are you suggesting the only teams on Duke's schedule with "strong, powerful guards that are good at driving" are Louisville, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, and Stephen F Austin? Really?

[Hancock 4 Duke]

For those currious, here is Vernon's shot chart. He's not as bad from three as I thought I remembered; especially from the top of the key. The top number is FG% in that specific zone (top of key 3, top of key 2, restricted area, etc.) and the second number is points-per-shot (FG% * number of points the shot is worth.) Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 5.01.59 PM.jpg

Edit: for some reason I can't figure out how to make the image more hi-res. So here is the imgur link for better viewability: https://i.imgur.com/ghAn3mB.jpg

[DukieInBrasil]

Wait, are you suggesting the only teams on Duke's schedule with "strong, powerful guards that are good at driving" are Louisville, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, and Stephen F Austin? Really?

getting burned badly by a specific type of play does not necessarily equate to losing the game since, as you are well aware, there are many other parts of the game, such as Duke's own offense.

[Kedsy]

getting burned badly by a specific type of play does not necessarily equate to losing the game since, as you are well aware, there are many other parts of the game, such as Duke's own offense.

Perhaps, but your assertion still seems off to me. Below is a table showing our adjusted dRating against every opponent this season:

Team		unad dR	adj dR
W Forest 2	1.184	1.132
NCSU		1.155	1.080
Clemson		1.075	1.062
Syracuse	1.148	1.053
Pitt		1.049	1.041
UNC		1.031	1.003
SF Austin	1.011	1.000
Wofford		0.950	0.935
Va Tech 1	0.950	0.923
Winthrop	0.940	0.919
L'Ville		1.020	0.898
Mich St		0.991	0.888
Ga Tech		0.894	0.887
Va Tech 2	0.882	0.855
FSU		0.916	0.828
W Forest 1	0.865	0.813
Ga St		0.850	0.810
BC 2		0.779	0.809
Cal		0.791	0.807
G-town		0.905	0.806
Miami 1		0.854	0.788
Miami 2		0.827	0.761
C Ark		0.671	0.715
N Dame		0.795	0.710
BC 1		0.664	0.694
Kansas		0.820	0.689
Brown		0.734	0.676
Col St		0.719	0.657

Look at the teams with adjusted ppp above 1 (top of the chart) and the teams with adjusted ppp below 0.9 (middle and bottom of the chart). Now tell me again that "every single team [with] strong, powerful guards that are good at driving" punished our defense. Or even that the teams that punished our defense all had strong, powerful guards that are good at driving.


(note that the table above does not adjust for home/away/neutral; it merely adjusts by taking into account each team's KenPom oRating vs. defensive performance in that game)